2024 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial election

Provincial elections are scheduled to be held in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on a date yet to be determined to elect a new provincial legislature. On 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections will be delayed for several months, as new delimitations will be published on 14 December 2023, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).[1][2] The likely impact of this is polls not being held until February 2024 at the earliest.

2024 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial election
TBD
115 out of 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly[lower-alpha 1]
73 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Ali Amin Gandapur Akram Khan Durrani Aimal Wali Khan
Party PTI JUI (F) ANP
Leader since 3 June 2023 2 October 2018 12 April 2019
Leader's seat TBA Bannu-IV TBA
Last election 32.32%, 97 seats Did not contest[lower-alpha 2] 12.19%, 9 seats
Current seats 95 3 11
Seats needed Steady Increase 70 Increase 62
Map of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with Provincial Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Chief Minister

Mahmood Khan
PTI


Electoral system

The 145 seats of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly consist of 115 general seats, whose members are elected by the first-past-the-postvoting system through single-member constituencies. 26 seats are reserved for women and 8 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.

Background

In the 2018 election, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won a landslide victory in the province by securing a two-thirds majority in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly. The PTI became the only party in the province’s history to return to government with more seats after completing a 5-year term.[3][4]

Before the 2018 elections, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) restored their electoral alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, to counter the PTI’s support but failed to make gains and in fact lost even more seats.[5][6]

The Pashtun nationalist and leftist Awami National Party (ANP) also failed to counter the PTI, but slightly increased their share of seats.

The conservative Pakistan Muslim league (N) (PML-N) once the most popular party in the Hazara Division, also faced defeat and was nearly wiped out from the region.

Due to circumstances arising after the successful motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan, a motion of no confidence was also filed to remove Chief Minister Mahmood Khan from office. The motion was rejected on 11 April 2022, as 88 votes were cast against the motion to just 2 in favor.[7]

On 26 June 2022, the PTI flipped the PK-7 Swat-VI constituency in a by-election, winning by a margin of 4,341 votes and defeated the ANP, which enjoyed the support of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), particularly the JUI(F) and PML(N).[8]

On 17 January 2023, Chief Minister Khan sent a letter to Governor Haji Ghulam Ali, advising him to dissolve the Provincial Assembly. Ali accepted the advice the next day. Elections must be conducted within 90 days of the dissolution, meaning by or before 18 April 2023.[9][10]

After two days of talks, on 20 January 2023, the government and opposition agreed on appointing Muhammad Azam Khan, a former bureaucrat, as the caretaker Chief Minister.[11]

After a month of delay from Governor Ali and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), President Arif Alvi decided to unilaterally appoint 9 April 2023 as the date for the provincial election.[12]

On 1 March 2023, in a 3-2 split verdict, the Supreme Court ruled that since Governor Ali had dissolved the Assembly, he was "in breach of his constitutional duty" by not appointing an election date and should immediately do so, after consultation with the ECP. As a consequence, the date appointed by President Alvi was set aside.[13]

On 15 March 2023, Governor Ali suggested the date for the provincial election to be 28 May 2023. However, on 24 March, in a letter to the ECP, he sought a postponement of the elections to 8 October. Consequently, on 29 March, the ECP announced that they would hold the provincial elections on 8 October.[14][15][16]

On 25 March 2023, Mushtaq Ahmed Ghani, the Speaker of the Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, filed a constitutional petition and a contempt of court petition in the Supreme Court on behalf of the PTI, over the violation of the Supreme Court's March 1 verdict. However, no verdict had been issued.[17]

After the 2023 Pakistani protests, Pervez Khattak, the Chief Minister of the province from 2013 to 2018, was accused of inciting other PTI members to leave the party. Due to this, his basic party membership was terminated on 12 July 2023. Five days later, on 17 July, Khattak announced the formation of his new party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians (PTI-P) and many politicians across the province, mainly from the PTI, joined the new party. The most notable of these politicians was Chief Minister Mahmood Khan.[18][19]

In July, 52 former MPAs of the PTI signed a letter to the ECP seeking a "level-playing field" and alleging that the caretaker cabinet "consists almost exclusively of nominees from parties of Pakistan Democratic Movement and their allies like PPP and ANP". A month later, the ECP asked caretaker Chief Minister Muhammad Azam Khan to sack ministers who were openly involved in politics. As a result, on 10 August 2023, twenty-five members of the caretaker cabinet had tendered their resignations to the Chief Minister. One day later, the Governor accepted all of their resignations.[20]

Opinion polls
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI MMA ANP PML(N) PPP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 81.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1% 2.4% 0.0% 67.1% N/A 15%
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 58.4% 9.0% 10.1% 10.1% 12.4% 48.3% 3,000 11%
PA 18 January 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called.
KPK By-elections 16 October 2022 53.3% 41.9% 4.8% 11.4% 445,604 6,994
PK-7 By-election 26 June 2022 [21] 52% 44% 2% 8% 33,573 2%
NA-33 By Election 17 April 2022 48.8% 42.8% 8.4% 6% 43,148 537
NA 11-12 April 2022Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 38% 23% 8% 13% 8% 10% 15% ~600 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 44% 13% 6% 21% 8% 7% 1% 23% ~970 28%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 17% 11% 11% 7% 10% 27% 641 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 34% 8% 3% 12% 4% 26% 21% 331 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 39.3% 18.9% 9.3% 10.7% 7.5% 3.5% 10.8% 20.4% 6,611,287 N/A

Results

Result by Party
Party Popular vote Seats
General Reserved Total +/−
Votes % ±pp Contested Won Women Non-Muslims
Pakistan People's Party
Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan
Pakistan Muslim League (N)
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians
Pakistan Muslim League (Q)
Awami National Party
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan
Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (F)
Independents
Others
Total 100% 115 26 4 145
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast/ turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters

Results by division
Division Seats PPP IPP PTI JI PML(N) ANP PML(Q) JUI(F) PTI(P) IND Others
Malakand 27
Hazara 18
Mardan 13
Peshawar 29
Kohat 11
Bannu 9
Dera Ismail Khan 8
Total 115

Results by district
Division District Seats PPP IPP PTI JI PML(N) ANP PML(Q) JUI(F) PTI(P) IND Others
Malakand Upper Chitral 1
Lower Chitral 1
Swat 7
Upper Dir 3
Lower Dir 5
Bajaur 3
Malakand 2
Buner 3
Shangla 2
Hazara Upper Kohistan 1
Lower Kohistan 1
Kolai-Palas 1
Battagram 2
Mansehra 5
Torghar 1
Abbottabad 4
Haripur 3
Mardan Swabi 5
Mardan 8
Peshawar Charsadda 5
Mohmand 2
Khyber 3
Peshawar 14
Nowshera 5
Kohat Kohat 4
Hangu 2
Orakzai 1
Kurram 2
Karak 2
Bannu Bannu 4
North Waziristan 2
Lakki Marwat 3
Dera Ismail Khan Tank 1
Lower South Waziristan 1
Upper South Waziristan 1
Dera Ismail Khan 5
Total 115

Results by constituency
District Constituency Winner Runner Up Margin
No. Name Candidate Party Votes % Candidate Party Votes %
Upper Chitral 1 Upper Chitral
Lower Chitral 2 Lower Chitral
Swat 3 Swat-I
4 Swat-II
5 Swat-III
6 Swat-IV
7 Swat-V
8 Swat-VI
9 Swat-VII
Upper Dir 10 Upper Dir-I
11 Upper Dir-II
12 Upper Dir-III
Lower Dir 13 Lower Dir-I
14 Lower Dir-II
15 Lower Dir-III
16 Lower Dir-IV
17 Lower Dir-V
Bajaur 18 Bajaur-I
19 Bajaur-II
20 Bajaur-III
Malakand 21 Malakand-I
22 Malakand-II
Buner 23 Buner-I
24 Buner-II
25 Buner-III
Shangla 26 Shangla-I
27 Shangla-II
Upper Kohistan 28 Upper Kohistan
Lower Kohistan 29 Lower Kohistan
Kolai-Palas 30 Kolai Palas
Battagram 31 Battagram-I
32 Battagram-II
Mansehra 33 Mansehra-I
34 Mansehra-II
35 Mansehra-III
36 Mansehra-IV
37 Mansehra-V
Torghar 38 Torghar
Abbottabad 39 Abbottabad-I
40 Abbottabad-II
41 Abbottabad-III
42 Abbottabad-IV
Haripur 43 Haripur-I
44 Haripur-II
45 Haripur-III
Swabi 46 Swabi-I
47 Swabi-II
48 Swabi-III
49 Swabi-IV
50 Swabi-V
Mardan 51 Mardan-I
52 Mardan-II
53 Mardan-III
54 Mardan-IV
55 Mardan-V
56 Mardan-VI
57 Mardan-VII
58 Mardan-VIII
Charsadda 59 Charsadda-I
60 Charsadda-II
61 Charsadda-III
62 Charsadda-IV
63 Charsadda-V
Mohmand 64 Mohmand-I
65 Mohmand-II
Khyber 66 Khyber-I
67 Khyber-II
68 Khyber-III
Peshawar 69 Peshawar-I
70 Peshawar-II
71 Peshawar-III
72 Peshawar-IV
73 Peshawar-V
74 Peshawar-VI
75 Peshawar-VII
76 Peshawar-VIII
77 Peshawar-IX
78 Peshawar-X
79 Peshawar-XI
80 Peshawar-XII
81 Peshawar-XIII
82 Peshawar-XIV
Nowshera 83 Nowshera-I
84 Nowshera-II
85 Nowshera-III
86 Nowshera-IV
87 Nowshera-V
Kohat 88 Kohat-I
89 Kohat-II
90 Kohat-III
91 Kohat-IV
Hangu 92 Hangu-I
93 Hangu-II
Orakzai 94 Orakzai
Kurram 95 Kurram-I
96 Kurram-II
Karak 97 Karak-I
98 Karak-II
Bannu 99 Bannu-I
100 Bannu-II
101 Bannu-III
102 Bannu-IV
North Waziristan 103 North Waziristan-I
104 North Waziristan-II
Lakki Marwat 105 Lakki Marwat-I
106 Lakki Marwat-II
107 Lakki Marwat-III
Tank 108 Tank
Lower South Waziristan 109 Lower South Waziristan
Upper South Waziristan 110 Upper South Waziristan
Dera Ismail Khan 111 Dera Ismail Khan-I
112 Dera Ismail Khan-II
113 Dera Ismail Khan-III
114 Dera Ismail Khan-IV
115 Dera Ismail Khan-V

See also

Notes
  1. 26 seats are reserved for women and 8 are reserved for non-Muslims filled through Proportional representation
  2. JUI (F) did not contest the 2018 elections, as they were part of an electoral alliance called Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
  3. This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  4. This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References
  1. "Pakistan's general election may be delayed by new census". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2023-08-06.
  2. Sadozai, Irfan (2023-08-17). "Election delay all but certain as ECP decides to go for fresh delimitation". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-17.
  3. "PTI votes surged by 120% in general elections 2018". The Express Tribune. 2018-07-28. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  4. "PTI remains on top with 65 PA seats in KP". The Nation. 2018-07-26. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  5. "Changing trends in religious vote". The Nation. 2018-08-12. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  6. "Religious parties announce restoration of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal". www.geo.tv. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  7. "K-P Assembly reposes trust in CM Mahmood". The Express Tribune. 2022-04-11. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  8. "PTI defeats joint opp in PK-7 Swat by-poll". The Express Tribune. 2022-06-26. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  9. Hayat, Arif (17 January 2023). "CM Mahmood sends summary for dissolution of KP Assembly to governor". DAWN News. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  10. Hayat, Arif (18 January 2023). "KP Assembly dissolved as governor approves CM Mahmood's summary". DAWN News. Retrieved 18 January 2023.
  11. Hayat, Arif (20 January 2023). "KP govt, opposition pick Azam Khan as caretaker CM". DAWN News. Retrieved 20 January 2023.
  12. Siddiqui, Naveed (20 February 2023). "President Alvi unilaterally announces April 9 as Punjab, KP election date". DAWN News. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
  13. Bhatti, Haseeb; Iqbal, Nasir (1 March 2023). "Elections in Punjab, KP to be held in 90 days, rules SC in 3-2 verdict". DAWN News.
  14. Khan, Iftikhar (15 March 2023). "Governor fixes May 28 for KP assembly polls". DAWN News. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  15. Farooq, Umer (25 March 2023). "KP governor follows ECP's lead on poll date". DAWN News. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  16. Sadozai, Irfan (2023-03-29). "After Punjab, ECP sets KP election date for October 8". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  17. Habib, Rashid (2023-03-25). "PTI challenges postponement of Punjab, KP elections in SC". ARY NEWS. Retrieved 2023-03-25.
  18. "PTI strips basic party membership of Parvez Khattak". Samaa. 2023-07-12. Retrieved 2023-07-12.
  19. Hakeem, Abdul (2023-07-17). "Khattak launches breakaway faction PTI-Parliamentarians". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-07-17.
  20. Hayat, Arif (2023-08-10). "19 members of KP caretaker cabinet resign on ECP's directions: interim minister". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-10.
  21. "PK-7 By Election" (PDF). FAFEN.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.