Opinion polling on a United Ireland

This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.

The island of Ireland including Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and their respective capitals.

In Northern Ireland


A 2011 survey by Northern Ireland Life and Times found that 52% of Northern Irish Catholic respondents favoured union with Great Britain over a united Ireland.[1][2]

Map of predominant national identity in the 2011 census in Northern Ireland

The 2013 annual Northern Ireland Life and Times survey conducted by the Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University found that a united Ireland was the favoured long term option of 15% of the population while remaining part of the United Kingdom was the favoured long term option of 66% of the population.[3] When the same survey was carried out in 2015, support for a united Ireland was 22%.[4]

Historically, opinion polls of the Northern Ireland population consistently showed majorities opposed to a United Ireland and in support of Northern Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom. For example, in a November 2015 survey by RTÉ and the BBC, 30% of the population expressed support for a United Ireland in their lifetime with 43% opposed and 27% undecided. However, when asked about the status of Northern Ireland in the short-to-medium term, support for unity was lower at around 13% of the population.[5]

According to a 2015 opinion poll, 70% expressed a long-term preference of the maintenance of Northern Ireland's membership of the United Kingdom (either directly ruled or with devolved government), while 14% express a preference for membership of a united Ireland.[6] This discrepancy can be explained by the overwhelming preference among Protestants to remain a part of the UK (93%), while Catholic preferences are spread across a number of solutions to the constitutional question including remaining a part of the UK (47%), a united Ireland (32%), Northern Ireland becoming an independent state (4%), and those who "don't know" (16%).[6]

Since the 2016 Brexit vote, support for reunification has increased, with 22% of respondents favourable towards reunification, up from 17% in 2013.[4]

A poll in May 2017 found that 51% were in favour of holding a referendum on a united Ireland within the next five years.[7]

In October 2017 a poll found that 62 percent were in favour of having a referendum on a united Ireland within the next ten years. The same poll found that 55 percent of those asked would vote to remain within the United Kingdom if a referendum was held tomorrow while 34 percent said they would vote yes and 10 percent were undecided.[8][9] The poll also asked how those asked would vote in the event of a "hard Brexit" that was bad for Northern Ireland and a "soft Brexit" that was good for Northern Ireland but the undecided were excluded. In the event of the latter 62.84 percent would vote to remain in the UK while 37.14 would vote for a United Ireland. In the case of the former 53.57 percent said they would vote to remain in the United Kingdom while 46.43 would vote to leave it and have a United Ireland.[10]

In December 2017, an opinion poll carried out by LucidTalk on more than 2,000 people saw 48% of respondents willing to vote for a united Ireland if a border poll was held in the event of a hard Brexit, against 45% for maintaining the status quo.[11]

A Lord Ashcroft poll, with 1,542 people questioned online from 30 August to 2 September 2019, found 46% of the respondents would vote for leaving the Union and joining the Republic of Ireland, and 45% would vote to stay in the UK. The other respondents would not vote or didn't know.[12][13]

Table of opinion polling
Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Will not
vote		 Lead Notes
5 September – 20 November 2022 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[14][15] 1,40535%47%10%4%12% "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022 ARINS/The Irish Times[16][17] 1,009 27%50%23%23%
August 2022 LucidTalk[18] 3,384 41%48% 11% 7% "If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."
May 2022 Life & Times 1,39734%48%11%4%14%
April 2022 University of Liverpool/The Irish News[19] 1,000[20] 31.9%48.2%19.8%16.3%
November 2021 Lord Ashcroft 3,301[21] 41%49%8%8%
October 2021 University of Liverpool[22] 1,002[23]30%59%9%2%29%
August 2021 LucidTalk[24] 2,403[25]42%49%9%7%
June 2021 Life & Times[26][27] 30%53%9% 5%23%
May 2021 Belfast Telegraph/Kantar[28] 35%44%21%9%
April 2021 LucidTalk[29] 43%49%8%6%
February 2021Savanta ComRes/ITV News[30] 36%49%15%13%
January 2021Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times[31] 42.3%46.8%10.7%4.5%
February 2020LucidTalk[32] 45%47%8%2%
February 2020Liverpool University[33] 29%52%19%23%
September 2019Lord Ashcroft[34] 1,54246%45%9%1% "If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?"
March 2019Irish Times/Ipsos Mori[35] 32%45%23%13%
June 2018Lord Ashcroft[36] 44%49%7%5%
June 2018NILT[37][38] 22%55%10% 12%33%
May 2018LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC[39][40][41] 42%45%12.7% 0.2%3%
May 2018ICM 21%50%18.9% 9.7%29%
October 2017LucidTalk[42][43] 34%55%9.8% 1.1%21%
July 2017ESRC[44] 27%52%21%25%
August 2016 Ipsos Mori[45] 22% 63% 13% 2% 41% Voters aged 18+
January 2013 Spotlight[46] 17% 65% 5% 12% 48% Voters aged 18+
November 2003 Millward Brown Ulster[47] 1058 26% 61% 13% 35% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
October-mid January 2002 NI Life and Times Survey[48] 1800 27% 54% 10% 6% 27% "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
May 2001 Millward Brown Ulster[47] 27% 58% 15% 31% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
June 1998 Millward Brown Ulster[47] 25% 63% 12% 38% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
Notes

    The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."[49]

    Non standard questions
    Date Polling organisation/client Yes No Undecided Will not
    vote    		 Lead Non standard question
    August 2022 LucidTalk[18] 52%44% 4%8% If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time.
    October 2020 LucidTalk[50]35% 34% 26%1%[lower-alpha 1] Reference to healthcare provision
    September 2018 OFOC/Deltapoll[51]52% 39% 9%13% "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..."
    December 2017 LucidTalk[52][53]48% 45% 6% 0.7%3% In the context of a hard Brexit
    1. Poll from LucidTalk referred to specific question on the NHS as an issue.

    Graph
    Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it...[54]
      to reunify with the rest of Ireland
      to be an independent state
      Other
      Don't know
      to remain part of the United Kingdom, with devolved government
      to remain part of the United Kingdom, with direct rule (since 2007)[55]
      to remain part of the United Kingdom (unspecified until 2006)[56]

    This graph shows yes/no Irish re-unification poll results excluding non-standard questions such as those that may refer to additional factors. The phrasing of the question asked in the polls varies.

    Assorted opinion polls

    An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[57] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[57][58]

    Answer All

    persons

    		 Religion Age band
    Protestant Catholic 18–24 25–44 45–64 65+
    Yes, for unity as soon as possible 5.7% 1.8% 9.8% 12.2% 5.5% 3.8% 3.3%
    Yes, for unity in 20 years 24.0% 9.6% 39.5% 27.8% 26.6% 23.0% 19.7%
    No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is 44.1% 57.8% 20.7% 36.6% 38.0% 45.6% 53.9%
    No opinion/would not vote 26.3% 30.8% 30.1% 23.4% 29.9% 27.6% 23.0%

    In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[59]

    Belfast

    City

    		 Greater

    Belfast

    		 Down Armagh Tyrone/

    Fermanagh

    		 Derry Antrim
    Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 65% 77% 57% 50% 51% 53% 72%
    Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 17% 10% 27% 41% 28% 28% 17%
    Don't know 17% 10% 13% 7% 19% 16% 6%
    Would not vote 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 6%

    The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[60]

    Age band 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
    Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 67% 63% 51% 57% 60% 77%
    Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 19% 19% 30% 28% 22% 14%
    Don't know 12% 15% 18% 13% 13% 7%
    Would not vote 2% 3% 1% 2% 6% 2%

    Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,[59]

    Answer Community background
    Protestant Catholic Neither
    Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 88% 37% 51%
    Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 5% 43% 15%
    Don't know 5% 17% 30%
    Would not vote 2% 2% 4%

    A similar LucidTalk poll conducted in May 2017 found that 51% of people would be in favour of a border poll within the next five years while 39% would not and 10% did not know. Respondents were not asked how they would vote in such a poll.[61]

    A LucidTalk opinion poll of 1,334 Northern Irish residents conducted in Oct–Nov 2018 found majority support (60%) for Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom if the UK were to remain an EU member state, an even split (48% each) if the UK were to leave the EU on the terms negotiated between the British Government and the EU, and majority support (55%) for Northern Ireland unifying with the Irish republic if the UK left the EU under a no-deal scenario.[62]

    Assuming a NI border referendum occurred in 2019, say shortly after the Brexit date (March): What way do you think you would vote according to the following scenarios?
    Based on the UK Government's current EU withdrawal agreement Based on a "no deal" (i.e. if the UK Government's EU withdrawal agreement is defeated in the UK parliament and no new deal is negotiated with the EU) EU withdrawal doesn't happen; i.e. UK remains in the EU (T. May has said this is a possible outcome if the UK Government's EU withdrawal agreement is defeated in the UK parliament)
    NI to remain in UK – I'm 100% certain 39% 38% 47%
    NI to remain in UK – My probable vote, but I'm not certain 9% 4% 13%
    Don't know/not sure at this point 4% 3% 11%
    NI to leave the UK and join a UI – My probable vote, but I'm not certain 18% 7% 8%
    NI to leave the UK and join a UI – I'm 100% certain 30% 48% 21%
    Polling was carried out during 80 hours from 30 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018 from an online opinion panel demographically representative of Northern Ireland (balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background) from 1,334 complete, valid, and unique responses. Data were weighted by age, sex, socio-economic group, previous voting patterns, constituency, constitutional position, party support and religious affiliation, and are accurate to a margin of error of ±3.0%, at 95% confidence. Polling was carried out by LucidTalk, a Belfast-based polling company and member of all recognised professional polling and market research organisations, including the UK-MRS, BPC, and ESOMAR.

    In the Republic of Ireland

    Do you favour a united Ireland?[63]

      Yes (57%)
      No (21%)
      Don't Know (22%)

    There are some very small pressure groups in the Republic of Ireland, such as the Reform Group and lodges of the Orange Order, that are sympathetic to Northern Ireland remaining within the United Kingdom for the foreseeable future, but their impact on the broader political opinion is negligible. A minority of politically conservative Catholic writers from the Republic of Ireland, such as Mary Kenny and Desmond Fennell have expressed misgivings about a united Ireland, fearing the incorporation of a large number of Protestants would threaten what they see as the Catholic nature of the Republic.[64] A Red C/Sunday Times poll in 2010 found that 57% are in favour of a united Ireland, 22% say they are opposed, while 21% are undecided.[65]

    In October 2015 an opinion poll commissioned by RTÉ and the BBC and carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes asked those in the Republic of Ireland the question "There are a number of possible options for the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." with the following responses,[66]

    In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should... Proportion
    Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster 9%
    Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) 35%
    Unify with the rest of Ireland 36%
    Other 1%
    None of these 2%
    Don't know 17%

    The same poll also asked "Thinking of the long-term policy for Northern Ireland, would you like to see a united Ireland in your lifetime?" with the following responses,[67]

    Would you like to see a united Ireland in your lifetime?
    Proportion
    Yes – would like to see a united Ireland in my lifetime 66%
    No – would not like to see a united Ireland in my lifetime 14%
    Don't know 20%

    The poll then asked a further question concerning the influence of the tax consequences of a united Ireland on support for it,[68]

    Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ...
    You would have to pay less tax There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay You would have to pay more tax
    In favour of a united Ireland 73% 63% 31%
    Against a united Ireland 8% 14% 44%
    Don't know 18% 24% 25%

    In December 2016 RTÉ's Claire Byrne Live/ Amárach Research panel asked 'Is it time for a united Ireland?' Forty-six percent of those asked said yes while 32% said no and 22% said that they didn't know. Support was highest among those aged 25–34 with 54% saying yes.[69]

    In May 2019 an RTÉ/REDC exit poll at the 2019 elections found that 65% of respondents are in favour of a united Ireland, whereas 19% were against it.[70]

    An Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll published in December 2021, indicated broad support for Irish unity in the Republic of Ireland, with 62% saying they would vote in favour, while just 16% opposed and 13% saying they don't know.[71] 8% say they would not vote.[71]

    In Great Britain

    A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[72] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.[72]

    See also

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