Polexit

A Polish withdrawal from the European Union, or Polexit (a portmanteau of "Poland" and "exit"), is the name given to a hypothetical Polish withdrawal from the European Union. The term was coined after Brexit, the process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU which took place between 2016 and 2020.

Poland's location in the European Union

History
See also: History of the European Union (1993–2004), Poland in the European Union, and 2015–present Polish constitutional crisis

Poland joined the European Union in 2004 through the Treaty of Accession 2003. At the time the EU included fifteen countries, mostly from Western, Northern and Southern Europe (see the Maastricht Treaty); the Treaty of Accession 2003 would accept ten more, mostly from Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic states.

In 2016, following continued political pressures from British Eurosceptics, Britain conducted a referendum on withdrawal from the EU. After the referendum had narrowly favored withdrawal, international media started speculating about the prospects of a similar event taking place in Poland (a so-called Polexit).[1][2][3][4][5]

In 2019, the Supreme Court of Poland warned that the judicial reform planned by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party could result in Poland having to leave the EU, as it undermines the independence of the judiciary and challenges the principle of the primacy of EU law, which is a key condition for membership that Poland had signed up to in its Treaty of Accession.[6]

On 22 November 2020, Do Rzeczy, a Polish weekly newspaper, published a front-page article called "Polexit: We have the right to talk about it".[5]

In September 2021, Ryszard Terlecki, Deputy Marshal of the Sejm and head of the Law and Justice parliamentary caucus, said that his party '[wanted] to remain in the EU and to have a cooperative relationship', but that the EU 'should be acceptable to us'. He added that if things were to go the way they were likely to go, they would have to search for a "drastic solution", further contending that the British left the EU because "the dictatorship of the Brussels bureaucracy did not suit them". This led to some people saying Terlecki had thus called for a Polexit.[7][8]

October 2021 Constitutional Tribunal ruling
Further information: 2015 Polish Constitutional Court crisis

The government of Poland has been making controversial changes to the Polish judiciary, in particular as related to the Polish Constitutional Tribunal, the National Council of the Judiciary, the Supreme Court as well as its Disciplinary Chamber. These have attracted scrutiny from the European Court of Justice, which has been issuing rulings attempting to stop these changes that it sees as undermining the rule of law and judicial independence.[9][10][11] The Tribunal's legitimacy is contested after multiple appointments of judges loyal to the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party were made, some of which in controversial circumstances.[12][13]

In March 2021, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki asked the Constitutional Tribunal whether the Polish constitution[lower-alpha 1] is above EU regulations and EU court rulings and whether the European Court of Justice acted beyond the powers granted by the EU treaties when controlling the judicial reforms in Poland, which the government insisted was the case.[14]

On 7 October 2021, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal ruled that some provisions of EU treaties and EU court rulings clashed with the Constitution of Poland, asserting that EU institutions [were acting] beyond the scope of their competences; effectively rejecting the notion of primacy of EU law.[12][15] BBC News and Foreign Policy reported that this risked Polexit,[15][16] while the Financial Times called it "legal secession from the EU";[17] however, The Economist opined that Polexit is unlikely due to this court ruling, instead talking of a "dirty remain".[18]

Public opinion

In the 2003 Polish referendum on joining the EU, 77.6% of voters voted in favor. Poland joined the EU the following year, and since then–according to regular polls conducted by the governmental Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS)–no more than a quarter of respondents ever supported leaving, with support gradually waning down to a mere 5% in 2019 and 6% in 2021.[19] For more results, see the table below.

Summary of chosen[lower-alpha 2] public opinion polls on possible Polish withdrawal from the EU
Date Leave Remain Abstain[lower-alpha 3] Undecided Source
May 2016[lower-alpha 4][lower-alpha 5] 22% - - - Ipsos[20]
September 2016[lower-alpha 6] 8% N/A N/A N/A OKO.press / Ipsos[21]
January 2018[lower-alpha 6] 10% N/A N/A N/A OKO.press / Ipsos[22]
September 2018 11% 83% - 3% TVN / Kantar Millward Brown[23]
October 2018 8% 84% - 8% Rzeczpospolita / IBRiS[24]
December 2018[lower-alpha 6] 8% N/A N/A N/A OKO.press / Ipsos[22]
March 2019[lower-alpha 5] - 87% - - Globsec[25]
September 2019 13% 75% 5% 7% Kantar[26]
January 2020 6% 89% - 5% TVN / Kantar Media[27]
November 2020 8% 87% - 5% TVN / Kantar Media[28]
November 2020[lower-alpha 6] 7% N/A N/A N/A OKO.press / Ipsos[29]
November 2020[lower-alpha 5] 11% 81.1% - 7.9% Rzeczpospolita / IBRiS[30]
July 2021 16.9% 62.6% - 20% Rzeczpospolita / SWR[31]
September 2021 7% 81% - 12% TVN / Kantar Media[32]
September 2021 - 88% - - Gazeta Wyborcza / OKO.press / Ipsos[33]
September 2021[lower-alpha 5] 16.2% 64.5% 7.2% 12.1% Rzeczpospolita / SWR[34]
October 2021[lower-alpha 5] 14.8% 64.4% 6.7% 14.1% Rzeczpospolita / SWR[35]

However, there is some support for conducting a second referendum on EU membership: in an October 2021 poll conducted for Rzeczpospolita, 42.6% of respondents were for, while 36.9% were against.[35]

In response to the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal earlier that month (mentioned above), more than 100,000 Poles took part in a 10 October 2021 demonstrations in support of Poland's continued membership, including 80,000-100,000 protesters in Warsaw alone.[36]

Endorsement of Polexit by political parties

In general, Eurosceptic parties in Poland hold right-wing political views. For instance, the Confederation Liberty and Independence (Konfederacja) party has called for a withdrawal from the European Union on several occasions,[37][38] and its electorate is among the most Eurosceptic on the Polish political arena, with a quarter of voters for the party endorsing Polexit, according to a November 2020 poll.[29] Similarly, members of United Poland (Solidarna Polska), a junior coalition partner for PiS, have questioned whether the EU is appropriate for Polish interests,[39][40][41] and the party's head, Zbigniew Ziobro, said he would not approve any constitutional change anchoring Poland in the European Union;[42] however, they also said that if the European Union institutions get "appropriately" reformed, they might agree to stay.[43][44] PolEXIT, which emerged on the base of the Congress of the New Right and is centered around Stanisław Żółtek, a former MEP from that party and candidate for 2020 presidential election, is also arguing for secession from the European Union. It is not currently represented in either Polish or European parliament. In 2020, Żółtek received 0,23% of votes in the presidential elections.

Law and Justice (PiS) and Kukiz'15 are also Eurosceptic parties.[45][46] Critics, including Donald Tusk (former President of the European Council and now leader of the main opposition party Civic Platform), warn that PiS's actions will eventually lead to Polexit and will jeopardise Poland's future in the EU,[36][47] though Jarosław Kaczyński, its leader, and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki both dismissed the allegations that PiS is preparing for it as "fake news",[24][48][49][50] while Paweł Kukiz said that "no Polexit would happen because there's no possibility for the EU to expel us".[51] Similar remarks were made by Przemysław Czarnek, the minister of education.[52]

There are currently no left-wing, left-of-centre or centrist parties represented in parliament endorsing Polexit, and their electorate's support for withdrawal from the European Union is negligible.[29] The somewhat conservative Polish People's Party (PSL) and Poland 2050 are also known as a pro-European political organisations.

See also

Notes
  1. Articles of the Constitution regarding the dispute between the European Union and Poland triggered in the ruling include Articles 2, 7, 8, 90 (as regards relations between EU law and the Polish Constitution) and Articles 144, 178, 179, 186, 190 (as regards the relations of EU law and EU caselaw with Polish judiciary)
  2. CBOS and Eurobarometer polls are not included here. Polls that merely asked whether Poles like the EU, instead of whether they should leave it/they would vote to leave it, have been excluded from the table.
  3. Respondents not given abstention as an option initially
  4. One month before the British referendum on European Union membership.
  5. Respondents were not asked about leaving or remaining in the EU. The question was, were they to vote again to join the EU, would they vote in favour or against joining.
  6. The question being asked in OKO.press polls was not whether to leave or remain, but rather how Poland should interact with the European Union, with three options: closer integration of the member states, limiting cooperation to economic affairs and granting more independence to member states, or quitting the EU

References
  1. "Poland: How feasible is a 'Polexit?'". Deutsche Welle. 13 December 2017.
  2. Shotter, James (6 December 2020). "Poland's EU budget veto stokes talk of 'Polexit'". Financial Times. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  3. "Poles voice fears of 'Polexit' as govt defies EU over budget". AP NEWS. 9 December 2020. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  4. "Polexit: 3 reasons why Poland will quit the EU and 3 why it won't". POLITICO. 30 November 2020. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  5. "[Analysis] Playing with fire - Poland's PiS reach for the 'Polexit' matches". EUobserver. 10 December 2020. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  6. "Poland may have to leave EU, Supreme Court warns". BBC News. 17 December 2019.
  7. Kaczyński, Piotr Maciej (10 September 2021). "Poland's ruling PiS sends mixed signals on 'Polexit'". Euractiv. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  8. Skolimowski, Piotr (9 September 2021). "Polish Ruling Party Official Backpedals EU Exit Suggestion". Bloomberg. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  9. "Court of Justice says Polish judicial amendments may violate EU law". POLITICO. 2 March 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  10. Baczynska, Gabriela; Florkiewicz, Pawel (15 July 2021). "EU court rules Polish judicial reform illegal in worsening standoff". Reuters. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  11. Baczynska, Gabriela; Wlodarczak-semczuk, Anna (6 October 2021). "EU court voids decision by Polish judge found to lack independence". Reuters. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  12. Henley, Jon; Rankin, Jennifer (7 October 2021). "Polish court rules EU laws incompatible with its constitution". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 October 2021.
  13. Barber, Tony (2 August 2021). "The EU must be tougher with Poland on the rule of law". Financial Times. Retrieved 26 October 2021.
  14. "Premier złożył wniosek do TK. Chodzi o kwestię wyższości konstytucji nad prawem UE" [Prime Minister filed a request for ruling to Constitutional Tribunal. It is about the question of [Polish Constitution's] supremacy over EU law.]. PAP (in Polish). 29 March 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021 – via Business Insider.
  15. Coakley, Amanda (8 October 2021). "Polish Court Ruling Sets Stage for 'Polexit'". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  17. The Editorial Board (10 October 2021). "A legal secession from the EU will cost Poland dearly". Financial Times. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  18. "Poland is a problem for the EU precisely because it will not leave". The Economist. 14 October 2021. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  22. "Europejczycy, w tym Polacy, chcą federalizacji Unii. Tak mówią dane". oko.press. 17 February 2019. Retrieved 31 October 2021.
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  24. "Sondaż: Polacy nie chcą polexitu". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 26 November 2018. Retrieved 31 October 2021.
  25. GLOBSEC Trends 2019 - Central and Eastern Europe 30 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain (PDF). Bratislava: Globsec. 2019.
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  38. ""Łączy nas Polexit". Narodowcy i Korwin-Mikke łączą siły przed wyborami do PE" ["Polexit unites us". Nationalists and Korwin-Mikke join forces before the elections to the European Parliament]. Do Rzeczy (in Polish). 6 December 2018. Retrieved 30 September 2020.
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  40. "Janusz Kowalski: jeśli będziemy jeszcze bardziej tracić, zagłosuję za polexitem" [Janusz Kowalski: If we lose even more, I will vote for Polexit]. polsatnews.pl (in Polish). Polsat News. 20 September 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  41. "Janusz Kowalski: Referendum polexitowe może być w 2027". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 3 November 2021. Retrieved 3 November 2021.
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  44. Dobrosz-Oracz, Justyna (15 September 2021). "Ziobryści o polexicie: W ciągu 10 lat będzie pole do referendum" [Ziobroites about Polexit: There will be grounds for a referendum in 10 years]. Gazeta Wyborcza. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  46. Lázár, Nóra (2015). "Euroscepticism in Hungary and Poland: a Comparative Analysis of Jobbik and the Law and Justice Parties". Politeja – Pismo Wydziału Studiów Międzynarodowych i Politycznych Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. 12 (33): 215–233. doi:10.12797/Politeja.12.2015.33.11. ISSN 1733-6716.
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  49. "Morawiecki: Opozycja próbuje insynuować nam, że chcemy doprowadzić do osłabienia UE" [Morawiecki: The opposition is trying to insinuate that we want to weaken the EU]. Dziennik Gazeta Prawna (in Polish). 12 October 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  50. "'There will be no Polexit': Kaczynski says Poland's future is in EU". euronews. 15 September 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  52. ""Histeria, którą ja nazywam polexitem urojonym". Czarnek o demonstracjach po orzeczeniu TK" ["The hysteria which I call imaginary polexit." Czarnek on demonstrations after the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal]. PolskieRadio.pl. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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