2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee. Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
Turnout54.46% Increase[1] 20.49 pp
 
Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863
Percentage 59.6% 38.6%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Dean:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No data

Governor before election

Bill Haslam
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[2]

After the general election, the results marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[3]

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Beth Harwell
Diane Black
Randy Boyd
Bill Lee
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black
Randy
Boyd
Beth
Harwell
Bill
Lee
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics July 18–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 20% 16% 26% 1%[64] 17%
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018 266 ± 6.4% 27% 22% 14% 19% 3% 14%
Data Orbital June 27–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 24% 23% 10% 19% 24%
Triton Polling & Research (R) June 25–28, 2018 1,040 ± 3.1% 27% 33% 7% 20% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) May 14–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 28% 8% 9% 15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) May 4–6, 2018 800 41% 26% 6% 11% 15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) April 2018 33% 30% 5% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) March 2018 31% 31% 10% 10%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 25% 20% 6% 7% 2%[65] 37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) February 5–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 22% 25% 4% 18% 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 22% 12% 6% 4% 4%[66] 53%

Results

Results by county
  Lee
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Boyd
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Black
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 291,414 36.75
Republican Randy Boyd 193,054 24.35
Republican Diane Black 182,457 23.01
Republican Beth Harwell 121,484 15.32
Republican Kay White 3,215 0.41
Republican Basil Marceaux 1,264 0.16
Total votes 792,888 100.0

Democratic primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Karl Dean
Federal officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Karl
Dean
Craig
Fitzhugh
Other Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018 206 ± 7.3% 44% 14% 9% 33%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 41% 11% 44%

Results

Results by county:
  Dean
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
  Fitzhugh
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Karl Dean 280,553 75.14
Democratic Craig Fitzhugh 72,553 23.42
Democratic Mezianne Vale Payne 20,284 5.44
Total votes 373,390 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Notes

  1. Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[77]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Karl Dean (D)
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[94] Likely R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[95] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[96] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[97] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[98] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[99] Likely R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[100] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[101][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[102] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[103] Likely R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 53% 44% 2%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 54% 41% 2% 3%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 54% 37% 2% 7%
850 RV ± 3.0% 52% 36% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 56% 44%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 52% 42% 0% 4%
871 RV ± 4.0% 52% 41% 0% 5%
East Tennessee State University Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 5% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 59% 36% 3% 2%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 57% 40% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 48% 37% 0% 12%
Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV 56% 44%
801 RV 49% 39% 12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 59% 33% 8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 53% 36% 1% 10%
806 RV ± 3.5% 52% 35% 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 46% 35% 19%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 55% 45%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 52% 43% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 49% 43% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 55% 35% 1% 10%
809 RV ± 3.5% 52% 34% 2% 12%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 53% 40% 1% 7%
730 RV ± 4.5% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 38% 34% 28%
Hypothetical polling
with Karl Dean
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 35% 39% 27%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 46% 35% 19%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 31% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 34% 36% 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 34% 23%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 35% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 33% 25%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 33% 29%
with Craig Fitzhugh
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 42% 27% 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 39% 30% 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 44% 24% 32%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 36% 36% 28%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 32% 37% 32%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 36% 29% 34%

Results

Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018[104]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.56% -10.75%
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.55% +15.71%
Independent Other candidates 42,314 1.89% N/A
Write-in 11 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,243,294 100.0% N/A
Republican hold
Full results
Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.6
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.6
Independent Sherry L. Clark 5,198 0.2
Independent Mark Wright 4,687 0.2
Independent Patrick Whitlock 3,631 0.2
Independent Yvonne Neubert 3,070 0.1
Independent Heather Scott 2,969 0.1
Independent Mark CoonRippy Brown 2,841 0.1
Independent Joe B. Wilmoth 2,444 0.1
Independent George Blackwell Smith IV 1,550 0.1
Independent Cory King 1,502 0.1
Independent Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale 1,396 0.1
Independent Justin Cornett 1,217 0.1
Independent Chad Riden 1,096 0.0
Independent Robert Sawyers Sr. 1,059 0.0
Independent Vinnie Vineyard 1,012 0.0
Independent Rick Tyler 981 0.0
Independent Gabriel Fancher 869 0.0
Independent Sean Bruce Fleming 814 0.0
Independent Alfred Shawn Rapoza 800 0.0
Independent Jessie D. McDonald 755 0.0
Independent Toney Randall Mitchell 739 0.0
Independent Mike Toews 726 0.0
Independent Matthew Koch 652 0.0
Independent Jeremy Allen Stephenson 613 0.0
Independent Tommy Ray McAnally 609 0.0
Independent Jaron D. Weidner 588 0.0
Independent William Andrew Helmstetter 496 0.0
Independent Eddie Murphy (write-in) 11 0.0
Total votes 2,243,294 100.0
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

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  2. Almukhtar, Sarah (August 2, 2018). "Tennessee Primary Election Results". The New York Times.
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  5. Garrison, Joey (August 2, 2017). "Diane Black enters race for governor of Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  6. staff, WATE 6 On Your Side (March 6, 2017). "Randy Boyd announces plans to run for Tennessee governor". WATE 6 On Your Side. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
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  34. Mike Pence. ".@DianeBlackTN is running for Governor of TN & a strong supporter of #MAGA agenda of tax cuts, military $$ & a champion of right to life policies. There are great candidates running but Diane has been my friend for years, we served together in the House, & she has my support!". Twitter.
  35. Hayes, Hank (August 14, 2017). "Ramsey gets behind Black's gubernatorial bid". Kingsport Times-News. Retrieved August 14, 2017.
  36. Diane Black. "Honored to receive the endorsement of @RickSantorum, a leader who is not afraid to fight for conservative values. Tennessee stood behind Rick in his 2012 race for President, and I'm proud to have him behind me in my race for Governor. #TeamBlack". Twitter.
  37. Conradis, Brandon (June 10, 2018). "Scalise throws support behind Black, Blackburn ahead of Tennessee primary". Archived from the original on June 14, 2018.
  38. "Jordan Sekulow endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor. May 24, 2018. Archived from the original on July 15, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  39. Diane Black. "Honored to have the endorsement of Dr. Swain, and don't forget to vote early starting tomorrow!". Twitter.
  40. "National Right to Life Endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor. Archived from the original on July 15, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  41. "SBA List Endorses Pro-life Champion Diane Black for Governor of Tennessee". Susan B. Anthony List. April 11, 2018. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020.
  42. "NRA Endorses Representative Diane Black for Governor". NRA. June 21, 2018. Archived from the original on July 15, 2018. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Rep. Diane Black for governor in the Tennessee Republican Primary Election.
  43. "ACU Endorses Diane Black". ACU.
  44. Students For Trump. "We fully endorse @DianeBlackTN to be the next Governor of Tennessee!". Twitter.
  45. Sher, Andy (June 27, 2018). "Family Research Council endorses Diane Black bid for Tennessee governor". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018.
  46. Buie, Jordan (June 22, 2018). "Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee endorses Randy Boyd". The Tennessean.
  47. Whetstone, Tyler (July 31, 2017). "Randy Boyd announces 21 more county mayors endorse campaign". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  48. "Durrett endorses Boyd for governor". The Leaf-Chronicle. June 28, 2017. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  49. Poe, Ryan (July 26, 2017). "Shelby County Mayor Luttrell endorses Randy Boyd for governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
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  55. "Carr Endorses Lee". Facebook Post.
  56. "RELEASE: Lee Announces Community and Faith-Based Advisory Council - Bill Lee". February 27, 2018. Archived from the original on June 26, 2018. Retrieved June 25, 2018.
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  60. "Honored to Have the endorsement of Scott Hamilton".
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  64. Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1%
  65. Kay White 2%
  66. Mae Beavers 4%
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  77. "Let's turn TN into OK! - Libertarian Party". November 13, 2017.
  78. Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Bill Lee of Tennessee on his big primary win for Governor last night. He ran a great campaign and now will finish off the job in November. Bill has my total and enthusiastic Endorsement!". Twitter.
  79. Mike Pence. "Congratulations on a big primary win to @BillLeeTN! The people of Tennessee are fortunate to have a man like you step up to serve as their Governor. @realDonaldTrump and I strongly support you & look forward to campaigning with you to victory in November!". Twitter.
  80. Lamar Alexander. "Congratulations to Bill Lee on tonight's victory. As I've often said, there is no better job than being governor of your home state, especially if that state is Tennessee. I look forward to working with Bill to continue Governor Haslam's excellent leadership of our state". Twitter.
  81. Bundgaard, Chris (August 3, 2018). "Diane Black throws support behind Bill Lee after GOP governor primary loss".
  82. Marsha Blackburn. "Congratulations, @BillLeeTN! I look forward to uniting the party and working together for Tennessee". Twitter.
  83. Bill Haslam. "Congrats to @BillLeeTN on winning the Republican nomination for TN governor". Twitter.
  84. Staff, Tennessee Star (June 18, 2018). "State Rep. Jay Reedy Endorses Bill Lee for Governor".
  85. "How negative ads sank Randy Boyd's gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on August 3, 2018.
  86. "TN Professional Firefighters Association endorses Bill Lee for governor". ClarksvilleNow.com. September 12, 2018. Archived from the original on September 13, 2018.
  87. "NRA Endorses Bill Lee for Governor of Tennessee". NRA-ILA. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018. ...the National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Bill Lee for governor of Tennessee.
  88. "The Tennessee Police Benevolent Association Endorses Bill Lee for Governor". Southern States PBA. October 11, 2018. Archived from the original on October 13, 2018.
  89. Cooper, Clint (October 17, 2018). "Cooper: Lee best choice for Tennessee governor". Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  90. "Bill Lee has potential to be an inspiring Tennessee governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
  91. Terry McAuliffe. "Phone banking for @KarlFDean #TeamDean". Twitter.
  92. Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
  93. Rep. Craig Fitzhugh. "I'm all in for @KarlFDean and you should be, too. For more #jobs, higher wages, for #educators & #MedicaidExpansion—there's only one choice. #TeamDean". Twitter.
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  104. State General
Official campaign websites
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