2004 United States presidential election in Maryland

The 2004 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Maryland

November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,334,493 1,024,703
Percentage 55.91% 42.93%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Maryland was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 12.98% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all twelve news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. As of the 2020 election, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won more than 40% of the vote in Maryland, the only time a Republican presidential candidate received more than a million votes in Maryland, and the last time a Democratic presidential nominee has failed to both break 60% of the vote and win by less than a 15% margin in the Old Line State. This is also the last time that Maryland shifted rightward compared to the previous election. Bush's 1,024,703 votes is the most received by a Republican presidential candidate in the state's history.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Cook Political Report Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
The New York Times Solid D
CNN Likely D
Newsweek Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D

Polling

Kerry won every pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 52% to 42%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,174,964.[3] Kerry raised $7,553,542, which was 4% of the total money raised by Kerry in 2004.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

Bush did win most of the counties in Maryland, but he lost the central part of the state (Washington DC suburbs and Baltimore), where most of the population is. The middle section is very urban and includes a large number of African Americans, many of whom are affluent (specifically in the Democratic stronghold of Prince George's County). Bush dominated Western Maryland and the state's Eastern Shore, which are very rural, but he carried only two congressional districts (see below). However, Kerry's margin of victory was slightly less than in 2000, when Gore won by 16.39%. As of 2020, this marks the last time in which the Democratic candidate won less than 7 counties. [7] This also marks the only time since 1880 in which Maryland gave a majority of its vote to a candidate that lost both the popular and electoral vote.[8]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Maryland
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Party John Kerry John Edwards 1,334,493 55.91% 10
Republican Party George W. Bush (Incumbent) Dick Cheney (Incumbent) 1,024,703 42.93% 0
Populist Party[9] Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 11,854 0.50% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 6,094 0.26% 0
Green Party David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 3,632 0.15% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 3,421 0.14% 0
Write Ins 2,481 0.11% 0
Totals 2,386,678 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 59%

Results by county

County John Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast[10]
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Allegany 10,576 35.42% 18,980 63.57% 299 1.01% -8,404 -28.15% 29,855
Anne Arundel 103,324 43.11% 133,231 55.59% 3,112 1.30% -29,907 -12.48% 239,667
Baltimore 182,474 51.62% 166,051 46.98% 4,954 1.40% 16,423 4.64% 353,479
Baltimore City 175,022 81.95% 36,230 16.96% 2,311 1.09% 138,792 64.99% 213,563
Calvert 15,967 40.58% 23,017 58.49% 367 0.93% -7,050 -17.91% 39,351
Caroline 3,810 33.55% 7,396 65.13% 150 1.32% -3,586 -31.58% 11,356
Carroll 22,974 28.95% 55,275 69.66% 1,100 1.39% -32,301 -40.71% 79,349
Cecil 14,680 38.97% 22,556 59.87% 438 1.16% -7,876 -20.90% 37,674
Charles 29,354 50.40% 28,442 48.84% 445 0.76% 912 1.56% 58,241
Dorchester 5,411 40.57% 7,801 58.48% 127 0.95% -2,390 -17.91% 13,339
Frederick 39,503 39.27% 59,934 59.58% 1,157 1.15% -20,431 -20.31% 100,594
Garrett 3,291 26.36% 9,085 72.77% 108 0.87% -5,794 -46.41% 12,484
Harford 39,685 35.20% 71,565 63.48% 1,478 1.32% -31,880 -28.28% 112,728
Howard 72,257 54.00% 59,724 44.63% 1,829 1.37% 12,533 9.37% 133,810
Kent 4,278 46.07% 4,900 52.77% 107 1.16% -622 -6.70% 9,285
Montgomery 273,936 65.97% 136,334 32.83% 4,955 1.20% 137,602 33.14% 415,225
Prince George's 260,532 81.81% 55,532 17.44% 2,410 0.75% 205,000 64.37% 318,474
Queen Anne's 7,070 32.44% 14,489 66.48% 235 1.08% -7,419 -34.04% 21,794
Somerset 4,034 44.85% 4,884 54.30% 76 0.85% -850 -9.45% 8,994
St. Mary's 13,776 36.33% 23,725 62.57% 415 1.10% -9,949 -26.24% 37,916
Talbot 7,367 39.05% 11,288 59.84% 12 1.11% -3,921 -20.79% 18,864
Washington 20,387 35.21% 36,917 63.76% 600 1.03% -16,530 -28.55% 57,904
Wicomico 15,137 40.36% 21,998 58.66% 368 0.98% -6,861 -18.30% 37,503
Worcester 9,648 38.24% 15,349 60.84% 232 0.92% -5,701 -22.60% 25,229
Totals1,334,49355.91%1,024,70342.93%27,4821.16%309,79012.98%2,386,678
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[11]

District Kerry Bush Representative
1st 36% 62% Wayne Gilchrest
2nd 54% 45% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 54% 45% Ben Cardin
4th 78% 21% Albert Wynn
5th 57% 42% Steny Hoyer
6th 34% 65% Roscoe Bartlett
7th 73% 26% Elijah Cummings
8th 69% 30% Chris Van Hollen

Electors

Technically the voters of Maryland cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maryland is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:[12]

  1. Norman Conway
  2. Delores Kelley
  3. Lainey Lebow Sachs
  4. Pam Jackson
  5. Dorothy Chaney
  6. John Riley
  7. Wendy Fielde
  8. Daphne Bloomberg
  9. Tom Perez
  10. Gary Gensler

See also

References

  1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Maryland Polls". US Election Atlas.
  3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  5. "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  6. "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  7. "Maryland". Google Docs. Retrieved September 4, 2022.
  8. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  9. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  10. Maryland State Board of Elections; 2004 Presidential General Election Official Results President and Vice President of the United States
  11. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  12. "Current Election - Maryland State Board of Elections". Archived from the original on October 4, 2006. Retrieved October 8, 2009.
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