WorldRiskReport

The WorldRiskReport is an annual technical report on global disaster risks. The yearly issues of the WorldRiskReport focus on varying critical topics related to disaster risk management and are published in German and English. The report includes the WorldRiskIndex, which identifies the risk of an extreme natural event becoming a disaster for 181 countries worldwide.[1]

The report has been published annually by Byter Entwicklung Hilft since 2011 – until 2016 in cooperation with the Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) at the United Nations University in Bonn.[2] Since 2018, the WorldRiskReport has been published jointly with the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) at the Ruhr University Bochum.[3]

The report aims to highlight linkages between extreme natural events, climate change, disaster risk reduction, and social inequality at the global level to provide a realistic picture of disasters and risk.[1] Through the close exchange between science and development policy practice, approaches to solutions and recommendations for action for current challenges in disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, and development policy are identified.[4][5]

Focal topics

With the focus topics in the WorldRiskReport, the quantitative disaster risk analysis in the form of the WorldRiskIndex is supplemented by several focus articles on central aspects of disaster risk and its management. In addition to the focus articles, the reports usually contain several case studies intended to provide insights into the project work of the member organizations of Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft on the respective focus topics. For the focus articles and case studies, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and IFHV cooperate with external experts from science and practice,[6] thus aiming to provide a comprehensive and multi-layered perspective on disaster risk as a complex phenomenon. So far, the following focal topics have been addressed in the context of the WorldRiskReports:[1]

  • 2021: Social Protection
  • 2020: Forced Displacement and Migration
  • 2019: Water Supply
  • 2018: Child Protection and Children's Rights
  • 2017: Analysis and Prospects
  • 2016: Logistics and Infrastructure
  • 2015: Food Security
  • 2014: The City as a Risk Area
  • 2013: Health and Healthcare
  • 2012: Environmental Degradation and Disasters
  • 2011: Governance and Civil Society

WorldRiskIndex

The WorldRiskIndex uses 27 aggregated, publicly available indicators to determine disaster risk for 181 countries worldwide. Conceptually, the index is composed of exposure to extreme natural hazards and the societal vulnerability of individual countries. Earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts, and climate-induced sea-level rise are considered in the exposure analysis. Societal vulnerability is divided into susceptibility to extreme natural events, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptive capacities. All index components are scaled to the value range from 0 to 100. The higher a country's index score on the WorldRiskIndex, the higher its national disaster risk. For illustration and better comparability of the results, all countries are divided into five nearly equal classes using the quintile method.[7]

The primary methodological concept of the index was developed jointly by the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and first published in 2011.[8][9]

Since 2017, the index has been calculated and methodologically advanced by IFHV. As part of the index's evolution to date, new datasets on exposure and societal vulnerability have been included, and the number of countries analyzed has been expanded.[10]

WorldRiskIndex 2021[1]
ISO Rank World-

RiskIndex

 Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Lack of

coping capacities

 Lack of

adaptive capacities

 Vanuatu 1 47.73 82.55 57.82 39.66 81.21 52.59
 Solomon Islands 2 31.16 51.13 60.95 46.07 81.14 55.63
 Tonga 3 30.51 63.63 47.95 28.42 79.81 35.62
 Dominica 4 27.42 61.74 44.41 23.42 71.13 38.67
 Antigua and Barbuda 5 27.28 67.73 40.28 23.80 64.41 32.62
 Brunei 6 22.77 58.17 39.14 15.33 68.13 33.96
 Guyana 7 21.83 43.93 49.69 25.96 77.23 45.88
 Philippines 8 21.39 42.68 50.11 28.63 82.14 39.56
 Papua New Guinea 9 20.90 30.62 68.27 55.28 86.16 63.37
 Guatemala 10 20.23 36.79 54.98 32.55 85.66 46.72
 Cape Verde 11 17.72 37.23 47.59 28.86 72.71 41.21
 Costa Rica 12 17.06 44.27 38.54 19.96 65.33 30.34
 Bangladesh 13 16.23 28.11 57.74 32.57 85.57 55.07
 Fiji 14 16.06 34.51 46.55 22.06 76.63 40.95
 Cambodia 15 15.80 26.89 58.76 38.89 86.61 50.79
 Timor-Leste 16 15.75 28.27 55.73 41.83 75.72 49.64
 Djibouti 17 15.48 25.78 60.03 36.19 84.33 59.58
 El Salvador 18 15.32 31.62 48.46 24.31 78.66 42.41
 Kiribati 19 15.14 26.41 57.34 39.67 82.82 49.52
 Comoros 20 14.91 23.62 63.13 45.93 85.39 58.06
 Haiti 21 14.54 21.41 67.91 49.93 90.36 63.44
 Nicaragua 22 14.12 26.02 54.25 32.27 83.29 47.19
 Niger 23 13.90 19.27 72.15 61.72 87.91 66.83
 Guinea-Bissau 24 13.39 18.88 70.92 60.17 89.20 63.39
 Cameroon 25 13.07 20.35 64.21 47.38 88.58 56.66
 Nigeria 26 12.66 19.64 64.46 49.70 88.58 55.10
 Uruguay 27 12.53 35.97 34.83 19.22 54.25 31.01
 Gambia 28 12.40 19.75 62.78 43.58 83.02 61.73
 Jamaica 29 12.02 25.92 46.37 24.92 74.52 39.67
 Chad 30 11.94 15.76 75.75 64.96 92.16 70.13
 Benin 31 11.71 17.92 65.33 54.09 81.42 60.49
 Dominican Republic 32 11.49 24.72 46.48 23.35 78.34 37.76
 Chile 33 11.32 32.51 34.83 17.79 59.44 27.25
 Honduras 34 11.23 20.66 54.35 31.62 85.74 45.68
 Burkina Faso 35 11.19 16.59 67.48 57.08 84.39 60.98
 Togo 36 10.99 16.60 66.23 55.77 86.14 56.79
 Mali 37 10.71 15.61 68.64 49.75 88.60 67.58
 Indonesia 38 10.67 21.30 50.10 26.06 78.71 45.54
 Madagascar 39 10.44 14.97 69.71 65.83 86.32 56.97
 Burundi 40 10.42 14.88 70.02 62.29 90.43 57.34
 Kenya 41 10.33 16.63 62.13 50.80 85.50 50.10
 Angola 42 10.28 15.61 65.86 52.89 86.89 57.80
 Vietnam 43 10.27 22.04 46.60 23.73 76.73 39.34
 Ivory Coast 44 9.98 15.57 64.10 47.26 85.61 59.43
 Senegal 45 9.79 16.50 59.31 44.64 77.87 55.42
 Japan 46 9.66 38.51 25.09 17.92 39.42 17.94
 Sierra Leone 47 9.40 13.65 68.87 55.15 85.39 66.07
 Ghana 48 9.32 16.38 56.88 41.60 78.75 50.29
 Zimbabwe 49 9.30 14.51 64.11 55.02 88.44 48.88
 Mozambique 50 9.11 13.26 68.73 62.60 88.45 55.13
 Mauritius 51 9.04 23.85 37.92 17.39 58.21 38.17
 Tanzania 52 8.94 13.97 64.00 56.49 83.21 52.30
 Malawi 52 8.94 13.35 66.98 59.46 84.68 56.79
 Liberia 54 8.92 13.48 66.17 55.63 87.16 55.73
 Ecuador 55 8.82 18.75 47.05 24.96 76.45 39.74
 Democratic Republic of the Congo 56 8.78 11.86 74.04 67.76 92.80 61.55
 Trinidad and Tobago 57 8.67 22.58 38.41 18.99 61.24 34.99
 Guinea 58 8.65 12.70 68.08 51.87 89.08 63.29
 Uganda 59 8.64 12.88 67.07 61.54 88.05 51.63
 Sudan 60 8.47 13.13 64.49 44.93 92.30 56.25
 Albania 61 8.23 19.77 41.63 20.10 74.77 30.03
 Mauritania 62 8.20 13.15 62.37 38.15 86.97 61.98
 Afghanistan 63 8.18 12.27 66.63 48.57 91.40 59.93
 Belize 64 8.03 16.73 47.97 28.20 74.46 41.26
 Venezuela 65 7.99 16.02 49.86 25.75 86.35 37.47
 Netherlands 66 7.98 31.75 25.13 14.66 44.34 16.40
 Ethiopia 67 7.93 11.75 67.52 56.76 87.35 58.45
 Uzbekistan 68 7.91 16.28 48.56 30.25 75.65 39.79
 Eswatini 69 7.85 13.54 57.98 42.35 82.62 48.98
 Panama 70 7.76 17.74 43.74 23.03 73.03 35.15
 Malaysia 71 7.73 19.09 40.49 17.05 71.19 33.22
 Zambia 72 7.72 12.12 63.67 61.69 81.31 48.00
 Algeria 73 7.66 16.61 46.14 22.24 76.81 39.36
 Central African Republic 74 7.64 10.08 75.83 70.52 90.56 66.41
 Sri Lanka 75 7.55 15.99 47.19 23.05 76.35 42.17
 Rwanda 75 7.55 12.37 61.04 52.14 79.44 51.55
 Suriname 77 7.38 15.24 48.41 28.82 74.70 41.70
 Equatorial Guinea 78 7.29 12.73 57.28 40.64 86.57 44.64
 Kyrgyzstan 79 7.25 16.49 43.96 24.59 75.22 32.07
 Myanmar 79 7.25 12.92 56.11 29.42 86.27 52.64
 Federated States of Micronesia 81 7.11 14.03 50.71 31.04 72.21 48.89
 Greece 82 6.93 22.23 31.18 17.42 58.93 17.20
 Eritrea 83 6.87 9.66 71.09 63.28 89.71 60.29
 Republic of the Congo 84 6.84 10.56 64.76 54.39 88.63 51.26
 Pakistan 85 6.80 11.95 56.88 33.57 84.71 52.37
 Montenegro 86 6.75 17.80 37.92 18.57 68.20 26.99
 Peru 86 6.75 14.92 45.26 26.29 76.22 33.27
 Colombia 88 6.72 14.83 45.32 22.80 77.04 36.13
 Lesotho 89 6.66 11.10 59.98 43.97 81.50 54.47
 India 90 6.65 12.52 53.09 32.15 78.70 48.42
 Gabon 91 6.60 12.75 51.79 32.58 75.08 47.71
 Thailand 92 6.52 14.79 44.06 17.62 78.65 35.91
 South Africa 93 6.46 13.47 47.93 30.90 73.35 39.54
 Mexico 94 6.03 14.20 42.44 20.86 74.25 32.20
 China 95 5.87 14.29 41.08 21.64 71.42 30.17
 Namibia 96 5.86 11.30 51.89 42.89 74.11 38.66
 Tunisia 97 5.85 13.08 44.74 20.90 75.50 37.83
 Turkmenistan 97 5.85 12.25 47.72 27.99 76.76 38.42
 Tajikistan 99 5.84 12.15 48.06 32.57 76.27 35.35
 North Macedonia 100 5.82 14.48 40.21 18.81 70.58 31.25
 Morocco 100 5.82 12.12 48.00 25.02 79.35 39.63
 Azerbaijan 102 5.81 14.21 40.90 18.46 72.00 32.24
 Syria 103 5.80 10.63 54.54 27.32 90.76 45.54
 Iraq 103 5.80 10.40 55.77 26.86 87.89 52.57
 Cuba 105 5.75 16.30 35.26 19.70 53.28 32.79
 Yemen 106 5.72 8.27 69.12 44.85 93.17 69.34
 Romania 107 5.71 15.39 37.11 19.47 63.14 28.71
 Georgia 108 5.69 15.14 37.56 22.15 59.22 31.32
 Samoa 109 5.54 11.46 48.32 25.56 79.83 39.56
 Lebanon 110 5.49 11.61 47.31 20.26 81.00 40.66
 Serbia 111 5.42 13.84 39.14 21.89 68.39 27.15
 Armenia 112 5.40 14.23 37.92 19.62 65.37 28.76
 Turkey 113 5.11 12.57 40.65 18.09 72.44 31.42
 Hungary 114 5.07 15.24 33.25 16.07 58.89 24.78
 Iran 115 5.03 10.90 46.15 21.67 82.62 34.17
 Brazil 116 4.97 11.35 43.80 22.68 76.22 32.51
 New Zealand 117 4.96 17.59 28.20 16.06 47.45 21.08
 Seychelles 118 4.89 11.94 40.97 18.23 64.82 39.86
 Italy 119 4.74 15.02 31.58 16.90 60.29 17.55
 Bolivia 120 4.71 9.49 49.67 31.83 79.79 37.38
 Bosnia and Herzegovina 121 4.68 10.89 43.01 18.77 74.61 35.65
   Nepal 122 4.66 8.51 54.76 32.90 83.28 48.10
 Australia 123 4.54 18.07 25.12 15.66 43.67 16.02
 Saint Lucia 124 4.52 9.83 45.96 23.68 74.26 39.95
 Ireland 125 4.49 16.68 26.90 15.40 47.66 17.65
 Laos 126 4.46 8.01 55.64 32.86 82.91 51.14
 Kuwait 127 4.32 11.90 36.28 14.12 70.09 24.64
 Bahamas 128 4.27 11.63 36.74 17.68 58.92 33.63
 Croatia 129 4.16 12.04 34.55 17.36 63.67 22.63
 Bulgaria 129 4.16 11.93 34.90 21.11 58.78 24.80
 Jordan 131 4.11 9.24 44.47 22.59 68.26 42.56
 Moldova 132 4.00 9.63 41.51 21.56 68.87 34.10
 United States 133 3.98 13.03 30.58 15.92 54.15 21.68
 Botswana 134 3.94 8.23 47.86 32.44 71.83 39.30
 Spain 135 3.62 11.77 30.73 15.86 58.22 18.11
 Paraguay 136 3.56 7.43 47.98 24.11 79.92 39.90
 Russia 137 3.53 9.50 37.21 18.64 65.83 27.15
 Portugal 138 3.52 11.60 30.38 16.60 51.49 23.04
 Argentina 138 3.52 9.60 36.63 20.35 60.27 29.27
 United Kingdom 140 3.51 12.58 27.92 16.18 48.71 18.87
 Kazakhstan 141 3.48 9.34 37.29 17.64 65.09 29.15
 Libya 142 3.47 7.37 47.12 22.65 83.76 34.94
 Slovenia 143 3.42 11.40 30.04 14.87 56.15 19.09
 Slovakia 144 3.33 10.10 32.97 14.84 59.15 24.93
 Bhutan 145 3.25 6.90 47.12 23.72 72.44 45.21
 Cyprus 146 3.21 8.97 35.78 15.24 67.63 24.46
 United Arab Emirates 147 3.14 10.48 29.97 9.82 54.52 25.57
 South Korea 148 3.13 11.40 27.45 13.36 48.48 20.50
 Poland 149 3.07 9.45 32.46 15.56 59.65 22.17
 Austria 150 3.06 13.08 23.41 13.87 41.00 15.35
 Czech Republic 150 3.06 10.76 28.46 15.09 49.48 20.80
 Latvia 152 3.01 8.80 34.21 18.90 60.06 23.67
 Mongolia 153 2.98 6.91 43.09 29.02 64.44 35.81
 Bahrain 154 2.93 7.33 39.94 15.31 76.81 27.71
 Norway 155 2.87 10.84 26.48 13.80 42.79 22.86
 Canada 156 2.81 10.36 27.10 15.07 47.49 18.73
 Israel 156 2.81 8.45 33.30 18.51 58.57 22.83
 Denmark 158 2.79 11.92 23.43 14.90 40.09 15.30
 Ukraine 159 2.72 6.92 39.36 18.83 68.43 30.81
 Belgium 160 2.71 11.41 23.79 14.66 42.49 14.22
 Germany 161 2.66 11.51 23.12 15.02 38.35 16.00
 Belarus 162 2.64 8.00 32.96 16.68 56.36 25.84
 São Tomé and Príncipe 163 2.57 4.54 56.60 45.67 77.23 46.90
 Oman 164 2.54 6.04 42.02 23.68 66.65 35.73
 Luxembourg 165 2.53 9.57 26.41 11.86 47.15 20.23
 France 166 2.51 9.63 26.06 16.68 45.10 16.41
 Singapore 167 2.50 8.88 28.10 10.34 54.01 19.94
 Sweden 168 2.25 8.80 25.62 15.63 45.43 15.81
 Lithuania 169 2.18 7.35 29.72 18.17 50.01 20.99
  Switzerland 170 2.04 9.01 22.68 13.97 38.92 15.14
 Finland 171 2.00 8.26 24.24 15.78 41.20 15.75
 Estonia 172 1.99 6.51 30.52 16.60 53.61 21.35
 Egypt 173 1.82 3.76 48.33 22.22 83.15 39.62
 Iceland 174 1.71 7.14 23.95 13.99 43.20 14.67
 Maldives 175 1.69 4.18 40.39 15.59 65.82 39.76
 Barbados 176 1.37 3.61 37.96 20.66 60.11 33.12
 Grenada 177 1.06 2.40 43.98 26.36 69.21 36.38
 Saudi Arabia 178 0.94 2.58 36.46 13.83 68.21 27.34
 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 179 0.70 1.62 43.00 28.16 69.86 30.97
 Malta 180 0.69 2.31 29.96 15.04 54.76 20.09
 Qatar 181 0.30 0.85 34.80 9.03 65.03 30.34
Classification WorldRiskIndex 2021[1]
Classification WorldRiskIndex Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Lack of

coping capacities

 Lack of

adaptive capacities

very low 0,30 – 3,25 0,85 – 9,57 22,68 – 34,21 9,03 – 16,68 38,35 – 58,92 14,22 – 24,78
low 3,26 – 5,54 9,58 – 12,04 34,22 – 42,02 16,69 – 21,56 58,93 – 71,19 24,79 – 34,10
medium 5,55 – 7,66 12,05 – 14,83 42,03 – 48,32 21,57 – 28,16 71,20 – 77,87 34,11 – 40,66
high 7,67 – 10,71 14,84 – 19,75 48,33 – 61,04 28,17 – 44,85 77,88 – 85,50 40,67 – 52,59
very high 10,72 – 47,73 19,76 – 82,55 61,05 – 75,83 44,86 – 70,52 85,51 – 93,17 52,60 – 70,13

Media resonance

The publication of the WorldRiskReports has regularly reached widespread media resonance in Germany in recent years.[4][11] The WorldRiskReport also attracts attention in the international press.[12][13][14]

The 2019 and 2020 WorldRiskReports on the focal topics of water supply and forced displacement and migration were presented at two conferences organized by the European Commission's Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and discussed by experts from academia, politics, and development policy practice.[15][16]

Based on the concept of the WorldRiskIndex, index-based risk analyses for freshwater regions, the global fisheries sector, and mangrove areas were conducted in cooperation between Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and the global environmental organization The Nature Conservancy, as well as in collaboration with several universities such as the University of California Santa Cruz and McGill University.[17][18] The cooperation project between Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and The Nature Conservancy is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and was funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety.[19]

References
  1. "WorldRiskReport". Official project page WorldRiskReport.
  2. "World Risk Report - Institute for Environment and Human Security". ehs.unu.edu. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  3. "WorldRiskReport". IFHV. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  4. tagesschau.de. "Autoren des Weltrisikoberichts fordern bessere Sozialsysteme". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  5. WorldRiskReport 2020: Forced Displacement and Migration (PDF). Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV. 2020.
  6. WorldRiskReport 2019: Water Supply (PDF). Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV. 2019.
  7. "Methodological Notes of the WorldRiskIndex 2021". Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft.
  8. Birkmann, J.; Welle, T. (2016). "The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction". J Extreme Events. 3 (2). doi:10.1142/S2345737616500056. S2CID 132428578.
  9. Welle, T., Birkmann, J. "The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale". Journal of Extreme Events. 2.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  10. WorldRiskReport 2018: Child Protection and Children's Rights (PDF). Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV. 2018.
  11. "ZEIT ONLINE | Lesen Sie zeit.de mit Werbung oder im PUR-Abo. Sie haben die Wahl". www.zeit.de. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  12. "Haiti's lack of preparedness makes bad disasters worse". The Economist. 2021-08-18. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  13. Madden, Duncan. "The WorldRiskReport Is Out And A Tiny Island Paradise Is The Most Risk Prone Place On Earth". Forbes. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  14. "Nations better shielded from disasters, Pacific most at risk: study". Reuters. 2017-11-07. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  15. "WorldRiskReport 2019 - Focus: Water Supply - World". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  16. "WorldRiskReport 2020 - Focus: Forced Displacement and Migration - World". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  17. Global assessment of current and future river flooding and the role of nature-based solutions for risk management (PDF). The Nature Conservancy / Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft. 2021.
  18. "New Study Shows High Risk to Fisheries from Climate Change". The Nature Conservancy. Retrieved 2021-12-03.
  19. Losada, Íñigo J.; Menéndez, Pelayo; Espejo, Antonio; Torres, Saúl; Simal, Pedro Díaz; Abad, Sheila; Beck, Michael W.; Narayan, Siddharth; Trespalacios, Dania; Pfliegner, Kerstin; Mucke, Peter; Kirch, Lotte (2018). The Global Value of Mangroves for Risk Reduction (PDF). The Nature Conservancy / Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft. doi:10.7291/V9DV1H2S.
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