Demographics of Madagascar

Demographics of Madagascar, Data of Our World in Data, year 2022; number of inhabitants in millions.

Population density of Madagascar as of 2004

The problem with population estimation in Madagascar is that data is very old and limited. The last population census was carried out in 1993, after an initial 1975 census. There was an attempt at a census in 2009, but this attempt ultimately failed due to political instability. Therefore, the demographic situation is inferred but reliability of any estimates from any source has a large margin of error. According to the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects[1][2] the total population was 28,915,653 in 2021, compared to only 4,084,000 in 1950. The proportion of children below the age of 15 in 2010 was 43.1%, 53.8% was between 15 and 65 years of age, while 3.1% was 65 years or older .[3]

Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2019): [4]

Registration of vital events in Madagascar is not complete. The Population Department of the United Nations prepared the following estimates.

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects, 2022[5]

Fertility and births

Many rural regions of Magagascar have high birthrates

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR):[6][7]

Year	CBR (Total)	TFR (Total)	CBR (Urban)	TFR (Urban)	CBR (Rural)	TFR (Rural)
1992	43.3	6.13 (5.2)	34.2	3.84 (3.0)	45.1	6.69 (5.8)
1997	42.3	5.97 (5.2)	34.5	4.19 (3.8)	45.0	6.66 (5.8)
2003–04	35.3	5.2 (4.7)	28.7	3.7 (3.4)	37.2	5.7 (5.1)
2008–09	33.4	4.8 (4.2)	24.8	2.9 (2.5)	34.8	5.2 (4.5)
2011	34.9	5.2	23.7	3.0	36.0	5.4
2013	30.6	4.4	24.0	3.0	31.2	4.5
2016	30.9	4.1	23.8	2.7	31.7	4.3
2021	32.3	4.3 (3.8)	27.6	3.2 (2.8)	33.4	4.6 (4.1)

Fertility data as of 2008-2009 (DHS Program):[8]

Region	Total fertility rate	Percentage of women age 15–49 currently pregnant	Mean number of children ever born to women age 40–49
Analamanga	3.4	5.7	4.3
Vakinankaratra	5.3	7.4	6.0
Itasy	5.5	6.7	6.9
Bongolava	3.8	6.9	5.4
Haute Matsiatra	6.4	7.5	6.8
Amoron'i Mania	6.1	5.3	6.7
Vatovavy Fitovinany	6.5	10.3	6.5
Ihorombe	5.9	10.6	5.5
Atsimo Atsinanana	6.3	11.4	6.0
Atsinanana	3.0	9.2	4.1
Analanjirofo	4.6	6.6	5.7
Alaotra Mangoro	5.0	9.1	5.5
Boeny	4.5	9.1	4.9
Sofia	4.4	10.7	5.9
Betsiboka	4.7	10.5	6.1
Melaky	4.7	12.2	5.5
Atsimo Andrefana	6.2	13.2	6.3
Androy	6.4	10.8	5.6
Anosy	5.5	8.6	5.7
Menabe	4.8	11.3	5.9
Diana	3.7	6.8	4.9
Sava	4.5	6.3	5.0

Distribution of Malagasy ethnicities

The island of Madagascar is predominantly populated by people broadly classified as belonging to the Malagasy ethno-linguistic group. This group is further subdivided a number of ethnic groups, often into the standard eighteen. In addition, communities of Indians in Madagascar and Arabs and Somalis have long been established on the island and have assimilated into local communities to varying degrees, in some places having long since become identified "Malagasy" ethnic groups, and in others maintaining distinct identities and cultural separation. More recent arrivals include Europeans and Chinese immigrants.

Madagascar was probably uninhabited prior to Austronesian settlement in the early centuries AD. Austronesian features are most predominant in the central highlands peoples and coastal peoples are phenotypically East African with various Malay, Arab, Somali, European and Indian admixtures. The largest coastal groups are the Betsimisaraka (1,500,000) and the Tsimihety and Sakalava (700,000 each). Malagasy society has long been polarized between the politically and economically advantaged highlanders of the central plateaux and the people along the coast. For example, in the 1970s there was widespread opposition among coastal ethnics against the policy of "Malagasization" which intended to phase out the use of the French language in public life in favour of a more prominent position for the Malagasy language, whose orthography is based on the Merina dialect. Identity politics were also at the core of the brief civil unrest during 2002.

Indians in Madagascar descend mostly from traders who arrived in the newly independent nation looking for better opportunities. The majority of them came from the west coast of India known as Karana (Muslim) and Banian (Hindu). The majority speak Hindi or Gujarati, although some other Indian dialects are also spoken. Nowadays the younger generations speak at least three languages, including French, Gujarati and Malagasy. A large number of the Indians in Madagascar have a high level of education, particularly the younger generation.

A sizeable number of Europeans also reside in Madagascar, mostly of French descent.

Roman Catholic cathedral in Antsirabe.

According to the 1993 national census, 41% of Madagascans practise Christianity and 52% practise traditional religion,[11] which tends to emphasize links between the living and the razana (ancestors). But according to the Pew Research Center in 2020, only 4.5% of Madagascans practise folk religions and 85% are Christian. According to the Association of Religion Data Archives, 58.1% of the population is Christian, 2.1% is Muslim, 39.2% practices traditional faiths, while 0.6% of the population is non-religious or adheres to other faiths as of 2020.[12]

Madagascar's traditional religions tend to emphasize links between the living and the dead. They believe that the dead join their ancestors in the ranks of divinity and that ancestors are intensely concerned with the fate of their living descendants. This spiritual communion is celebrated by the Merina and Betsileo reburial practice of famadihana, or "turning over the dead". In this ritual, relatives' remains are removed from the family tomb, rewrapped in new silk shrouds, and returned to the tomb following festive ceremonies in their honor. In the festivities, they eat, drink, and literally dance with the dead. After one or two days of celebrating, they shower the body with gifts and rebury it.

Malagasy Christians are mostly Protestant (mainly Reformed Protestant Church of Jesus Christ in Madagascar (FJKM), Lutheran, and Anglican) or Roman Catholic, but there are also smaller groups such as members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons), Jehovah's Witnesses, Seventh-day Adventists,[13] and Eastern Orthodox Christians. Many incorporate the cult of the dead with their other religious beliefs and bless their dead at church before proceeding with the traditional burial rites. They also may invite a pastor to attend a famadihana. A historical rivalry exists between the predominantly Catholic masses, considered to be underprivileged, and the predominantly Protestant Merina aristocrats, who tend to prevail in the civil service, business, and professions.

Followers of Islam constitute approximately 7% of the population, according to the US Department of State in 2011,[11] (down from their earlier estimate of 10 to 15% in 2009[13]), or 3% according to the Pew Research Center in 2010.[14] They are mostly concentrated in the north, northwest, and southeast.[13] There are also a small number of Hindus.[13]

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has more than 13,000 members in 42 congregations in Madagascar.[15]

A small community started practicing Judaism in 2012, and formally converted in 2016 with the assistance of Kulanu, a nonprofit organization focusing on remote Jewish communities.[16][17]

Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review in 2022.[18]

• One birth every 35 seconds
• One death every 3 minutes
• One net migrant every 360 minutes
• Net gain of one person every 42 seconds

The following demographic are from the CIA World Factbook[19] unless otherwise indicated.

Age structure

Population pyramid of Madagascar in 2020

0-14 years: 38.86% (male 5,278,838/female 5,196,036)

15-24 years: 20.06% (male 2,717,399/female 2,689,874)

25-54 years: 33.02% (male 4,443,147/female 4,456,691

55-64 years: 4.6% (male 611,364/female 627,315)

65 years and over: 3.47% (male 425,122/female 509,951) (2020 est.)

0-14 years: 39.55% (male 5,119,804 /female 5,037,438)

15-24 years: 20.23% (male 2,608,996 /female 2,587,745)

25-54 years: 32.42% (male 4,160,278 /female 4,166,538)

55-64 years: 4.45% (male 560,072 /female 581,963)

65 years and over: 3.35% (male 390,094 /female 470,682) (2018 est.)

• Matthew E. Hules, et al. (2005). The Dual Origin of the Malagasy in Island Southeast Asia and East Africa: Evidence from Maternal and Paternal Lineages. American Journal of Human Genetics, 76:894-901, 2005.