2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

The 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election was held on 26 September 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.[1] The incumbent government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister President Manuela Schwesig.

2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

26 September 2021

All 79 seats in the Landtag, including 8 overhang and leveling seats
40 seats needed for a majority
Turnout928,807 (70.8%) Increase 8.9pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
2017-06-25 Manuela Schwesig SPD Bundesparteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-16.jpg
2019-03-14 Nikolaus Kramer Landtag Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 6345.jpg
Portrait Michael Sack.jpg
Candidate Manuela Schwesig Nikolaus Kramer Michael Sack
Party SPD AfD CDU
Last election 30.6%, 26 seats 20.8%, 18 seats 19.0%, 16 seats
Seats won 34 14 12
Seat change Increase 8 Decrease 4 Decrease 4
Popular vote 361,769 152,775 121,583
Percentage 39.6% 16.7% 13.3%
Swing Increase 9.0pp Decrease 4.1pp Decrease 5.7pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
18-05-2017-Simone Oldenburg-JonasR.jpg
Anne Shepley MdL MV Fraktion Buendnis90-Die Grünen.png
René Domke.jpg
Candidate Simone Oldenburg Anne Shepley René Domke
Party Left Greens FDP
Last election 13.2%, 11 seats 4.8%, 0 seats 3.0%, 0 seats
Seats won 9 5 5
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 5 Increase 5
Popular vote 90,881 57,554 52,963
Percentage 9.9% 6.3% 5.8%
Swing Decrease 3.2pp Increase 1.5pp Increase 2.8pp

Results of the 2021 state election

Government before election

First Schwesig cabinet
SPDCDU

Government after election

Second Schwesig cabinet
SPDLeft

The SPD won a landslide plurality of almost 40% of votes, a nine percentage point increase from 2016. The opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) remained the second largest party but declined to under 17%. The CDU recorded its worst ever result in the state with 13.3%, while The Left also declined to 10%. Alliance 90/The Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) both won around 6% of votes and re-entered the Landtag after previously falling out in 2016 and 2011, respectively.[2]

After the election, the SPD chose to form a coalition with The Left rather than renew their government with the CDU. Schwesig was re-elected as Minister-President on 15 November with 41 votes out of 79.[3]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for a period of five years in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. An election may be held between 58 and 61 months after the first sitting of the previous Landtag. As the 7th Landtag first sat on 4 October 2016, the election must be held between 4 August to 4 November 2021. It must take place on a Sunday.[4]

On 12 January 2021, the state government designated 26 September as the date of the election,[5] coinciding with the federal parliamentary election.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 36 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 35 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 71 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Landtag.[1]

Background

In the previous election held on 4 September 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 30.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.0 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing second with 20.8%. The CDU won 19.0%, a loss of 4.0 points, while The Left won 13.2%, a loss of 5.2 points.

The SPD–CDU coalition which had governed since 2006 retained its majority and was renewed for a third term.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate
Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Manuela Schwesig Manuela Schwesig 30.6%
26 / 71
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Nikolaus Kramer Leif-Erik Holm 20.8%
18 / 71
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Michael Sack Michael Sack 18.0%
16 / 71
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Simone Oldenburg Torsten Koplin
Wenke Brüdgam
13.2%
11 / 71

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 7 August 2020, the state CDU elected Michael Sack, district administrator of Vorpommern-Greifswald, as its new leader. He was also selected as the party's lead candidate for the 2021 state election.[6]

On 28 January 2021, parliamentary group leader Simone Oldenburg was nominated as lead candidate for The Left.[7]

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD AfD CDU Linke Grüne FDP Others Lead
2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 39.6 16.7 13.3 9.9 6.3 5.8 8.4 22.9
INSA 20–24 Sep 2021 1,058 40 17 13 11 7 5 7 23
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Sep 2021 1,004 40 16 13.5 10 6 5 9.5 24
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20–22 Sep 2021 1,015 39 16 14 11 7 5.5 7.5 23
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13–16 Sep 2021 1,028 38 17 15 11 6 6 7 21
INSA 10–16 Sep 2021 1,064 40 18 12 11 7 6 6 22
Infratest dimap 13–15 Sep 2021 1,533 40 15 15 10 6 5 9 25
Wahlkreisprognose 4–9 Sep 2021 994 39 18 13 11 5.5 6 7.5 21
Infratest dimap 2–7 Sep 2021 1,153 39 17 14 10 6 7 7 22
Infratest dimap 19–24 Aug 2021 1,153 36 17 15 11 6 8 7 19
INSA 6–12 Aug 2021 1,000 28 17 18 14 8 7 8 10
INSA 16–22 Jul 2021 1,098 26 19 20 13 9 7 6 6
Wahlkreisprognose 14–21 Jul 2021 2,000 30 20 24 9 5 5 7 10
Infratest dimap 8–13 Jul 2021 1,159 27 16 23 12 7 7 8 4
INSA 21–30 Jun 2021 1,002 26 19 20 13 8 6 8 6
Infratest dimap 12–18 May 2021 1,245 23 17 21 11 14 6 8 2
Forsa 12–15 Jan 2021 1,002 26 14 24 16 10 3 7 2
Infratest dimap 18–21 Nov 2020 1,000 27 15 27 12 10 3 6 Tie
Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 2020 1,004 24 15 29 13 10 4 5 5
Forsa 2–10 Jan 2020 1,002 19 19 20 14 13 5 10 1
Forsa 18–23 Sep 2019 1,002 22 20 21 12 12 5 8 1
Forsa 4–11 Jan 2019 1,007 22 18 22 16 10 4 8 Tie
Forsa 24 May–28 Jun 2018 1,002 25 22 18 16 8 4 7 3
Forsa 2–11 Jan 2018 1,001 28 19 20 15 5 5 8 8
INSA 30 Jun–14 Jul 2017 1,608 31.5 20.5 22.0 13.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 9.5
Forsa 9–16 Jan 2017 1,002 32 18 21 13 4 4 8 11
2016 state election 4 Sep 2016 30.6 20.8 18.0 13.2 4.8 3.0 5.6 9.8

Results

PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%+/–SeatsVotes%+/–Seats
Social Democratic Party (SPD)313,22434.41+4.9934361,76939.59+9.03034+8
Alternative for Germany (AfD)163,96218.01–3.881152,77516.72–4.101314–4
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)157,40317.29–4.501121,58313.30–5.681112–4
The Left (DIE LINKE)106,18911.67–3.20090,8819.94–3.2399–2
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)59,5446.54+1.73057,5546.30+1.4855+5
Free Democratic Party (FDP)56,9516.26+2.91052,9635.80+2.7555+5
Human Environment Animal Protection6,9020.76+0.76015,2121.66+0.4600±0
Grassroots Democratic Party16,3191.79New015,2211.67New00New
Free Voters18,3242.01+0.95010,0751.10+0.5100±0
National Democratic Party00.0007,0630.77–2.2400±0
Die PARTEI1,8260.20–0.1107,0230.77+0.1400±0
Animal Protection Here!00.00New03,8830.42New00New
Pirate Party Germany1,7740.19+0.1503,7060.41–0.0800±0
Free Horizon2,4910.27–0.4503,3480.37–0.4500±0
Independents for Citizen-oriented Democracy5580.06New02,3310.26New00New
Party for Health Research00.00New02,0300.22New00New
Team Todenhöfer00.00New01,6310.18New00New
The Humanists00.00New01,1050.12New00New
Ecological Democratic Party00.00New09360.10New00New
Alliance C – Christians for Germany1860.02–0.0208270.09–0.0100±0
German Communist Party00.0007270.08–0.0800±0
Democracy in Motion00.00New05630.06New00New
Free Parliamentary Alliance7080.08New04360.05New00New
Liberal Conservative Reformers00.0002210.02–0.2800±0
Independents3,8080.42–0.28000.0000±0
Total910,169100.0036913,863100.004379
Valid votes910,16997.99+0.24913,86398.39+0.24
Invalid/blank votes18,6382.01–0.2414,9441.61–0.24
Total votes928,807100.00928,807100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,312,47170.77+8.921,312,47170.77+8.92
Source: State Returning Officer
Popular vote
SPD
39.59%
AfD
16.72%
CDU
13.30%
LINKE
9.94%
GRÜNE
6.30%
FDP
5.80%
Other
8.35%
Landtag seats
SPD
43.04%
AfD
17.72%
CDU
15.19%
LINKE
11.39%
GRÜNE
6.33%
FDP
6.33%

Aftermath

Minister-President Schwesig claimed victory after the release of exit polls and spoke of "a wonderful evening for our state and the SPD." CDU leader Michael Sack and general-secretary Wolfgang Waldmüller both described the party's result as a "catastrophe". Despite the AfD's losses, state chairman Leif Erik-Holm voiced his satisfaction with the result, particularly the decline of the CDU. Simone Oldenburg, the lead candidate for The Left, stated that the result was a mandate for a shift to the left in the government. Harald Terpe of the Greens described their performance as "promising" but said that many of the party's key issues are still not a high priority for the state's voters.[2]

Government formation

The SPD declined to commit to a coalition partner after the election, but a two-party government with either the CDU or The Left was mathematically possible. A traffic light coalition with the Greens and FDP also holds a majority. Minister President Schwesig described a "stable majority" with "reliable partners" as key to the formation of a new government.[2]

On 13 October 2021, Schwesig announced the SPD would enter coalition talks with The Left. She stated her motivations for reorienting the coalition as a desire for "a new departure", and described The Left as a "social, pragmatic party" with decisive policy overlap with the SPD. She said that The Left had been a reliable partner to the government even while in opposition, and had assumed "state-political responsibility" during the COVID-19 pandemic.[8]

A coalition agreement between the SPD and The Left was agreed to on 5 November[9] and signed on 13 November. Schwesig was re-elected as Minister-President on 15 November with 41 votes in favour, 35 against, and three abstentions. In the new cabinet, the SPD has six ministers and the Left has two: Simone Oldenburg as education minister and Jaqueline Bernhardt as justice minister.[10][3]

References

  1. "Landtag MV". Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag.
  2. "State election MV: Schwesig's SPD triumphs - CDU experiences debacle". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 27 September 2021.
  3. "Schwesig is re-elected as Minister-President of MV". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 15 November 2021.
  4. "Landtagswahl 2021 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern". State Office for Internal Administration/State Returning Officer.
  5. "State election on 26 September 2021 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania". State Returning Officer Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. 12 January 2021.
  6. "New CDU state chief also top candidate for state elections". N-tv.de. 7 August 2020.
  7. "Oldenburg shall be top candidate of The Left". Norddeutscher Rundfunk. 28 January 2021.
  8. "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Schwesig wants to govern with the Left Party". tagesschau.de (in German). Tagesschau. 13 October 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-10-13. Retrieved 2021-10-14.
  9. "SPD and Left agree on coalition agreement". tagesschau.de (in German). Tagesschau. 13 October 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-11-05. Retrieved 7 November 2021.
  10. "SPD and Left sign coalition agreement". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 13 November 2021.
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