Recent Trends in Births and Fertility Rates Through December 2011

by Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D., and Paul D. Sutton, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics

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The provisional count of births in the United States for 2011 was 3,961,000, 1 percent lower than the 4 million births for 2010 (4,000,279) (Figure ) (1,2). The number of births has steadily declined from the all-time high of 4,316,233 in 2007 (2), however, the rate of decline slowed from 2010 to 2011.

The provisional fertility rate in the United States for 2011 declined 1 percent to 63.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 from 64.1 for 2010 (Figure ) (1,2). As with the number of births, the fertility rate has steadily declined from the recent high of 69.3 in 2007 (2), although the rate of decline slowed in 2011.

Data sources and methods

Data for 2005–2009 in the Figure are final; data for 2010 are preliminary and data for 2011 are provisional (1,2). Provisional counts and rates are based on 12 months of provisional data ending with the specified month. Provisional counts are rounded to the nearest thousand. For further information about provisional data, see Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2009 (3). Rates for 2005–2011 shown in this report are based on intercensal population estimates derived from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Rates for 2005–2009 may differ from the original rates published in Births: Final Data for 2009 (4) and earlier reports, which are based on postcensal population estimates derived from the 2000 census alone. Rates based on intercensal population estimates derived from the 2000 and 2010 censuses are generally lower compared with rates based on the postcensal population estimates derived from the 2000 census alone (2).

References

1. National Center for Health Statistics. Provisional monthly and 12-month ending number of live births, deaths, and infant deaths and rates: United States, January 2010–June 2011. Internet table.
2. Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary Data for 2010 [PDF – 584 KB]. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
3. Tejada-Vera B, Sutton PD. Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2009 . National vital statistics reports; vol 58 no 25. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2010.
4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et al. Births: Final data for 2009 [PDF – 1.9 MB]. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

Figure

Figure. Births and fertility rates: United States, final 2005–2009, preliminary 2010, and provisional 2011

NOTES: The number of births and fertility rate for 2011 are based on 12 months of provisional counts ending with December 2011. Rates are based on intercensal population estimates derived from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Rates for 2005-2009 have been revised and may differ from rates previously published.

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.