Climate change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability (or climate vulnerability or climate risk vulnerability) is a concept that describes how strongly people or ecosystems are likely to be affected by climate change. It is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans and also to natural systems (or ecosystems).[1]: 12  Related concepts include climate sensitivity and the ability, or lack thereof, to cope and adapt.[1]: 5  Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability differs within communities and across societies, regions, and countries, and can increase or decrease over time.[1]: 12 

Vulnerability of people and ecosystems with regards to climate change effects is driven by certain unsustainable development patterns such as "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance".[1]: 12  Therefore, vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain aspects within a region increase vulnerability, for example poverty, bad governance and violent conflict. Some types of livelihoods are regarded as particularly climate-sensitive, resulting in a higher level of climate change vulnerability. These include for example smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities.[1]: 12 

Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories: These are economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. People who are more vulnerable than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly.

There are several tools available to assess climate vulnerability. Because climate vulnerability disproportionally affects low-income countries, climate vulnerability has become an important tool in international negotiations about climate change adaptation, climate finance and other international policy making activities.

Definition

Climate change vulnerability is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans but also to natural systems (ecosystems), and both are interdependent.[1]: 12  Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability will be higher if the capacity to cope and adapt is low.[1]: 5 

Climate vulnerability can include a wide variety of different meanings, situations, and contexts in climate change research, but has been a central concept in academic research since 2005.[2] The concept was defined in the third IPCC report in 2007 as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes".[3]: 89  The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 stated that "approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since previous IPCC assessments".[1]: 5 

People who are more vulnerable

Hurricane Ida (2021) flooding effects in Pennsylvania, US where poorer neighbourhoods were more affected.

People who are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly. More specifically, when looking at the effects of climate change on human health, a report published in The Lancet found that the greatest impact tends to fall on the most vulnerable people such as the poor, women, children, the elderly, people with pre-existing health concerns, other minorities and outdoor workers.[4]: 13 

Regions that are more vulnerable

Further information: Effects of climate change, Climate change in Africa, Climate change in Asia, Climate change in Latin America, and Climate change in the Arctic

All regions of the world are vulnerable to climate change but to a different degree. With high confidence, researchers concluded in 2001 that developing countries would tend to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[5]: 957–958  For example, Africa's major economic sectors are vulnerable to climate variability.[6]: 435  Latin America's vulnerability is considered to be high.[7]: 697  In Australia and New Zealand, some indigenous communities were judged to have a higher level of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity.[8]: 509  Small island Developing States are particularly vulnerable to climate change.[9]: 689  Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.

The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change. It is predicted that there will be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region.[10]: 804–805 

In comparison, the climate vulnerability of Europe is lower than in developing countries. This was attributed to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems.[11]: 643 

Scale

See also: Effects of climate change
Thick orange-brown smoke blocks half a blue sky, with conifers in the foreground
A few grey fish swim over grey coral with white spikes
Desert sand half covers a village of small flat-roofed houses with scattered green trees
large areas of still water behind riverside buildings
Some climate change effects, clockwise from top left: Wildfire caused by heat and dryness, bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating, coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise, and environmental migration caused by desertification
World gross national income per capita: Lower income countries tend to have a higher vulnerability to climate change.

It has been estimated in 2021 that "approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change".[1]: 12 

The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is not the same everywhere: there are marked differences among and within regions.[1]: 12  Vulnerability can also increase or decrease over time.[1]: 5 

See regions that are particularly vulnerable below.

Types

Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories: economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. Neither are mutually exclusive.

Economic vulnerability

At its basic level, a community that is economically vulnerable is one that is ill-prepared for the effects of climate change because it lacks the needed financial resources.[12] Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and preparedness systems. From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable, because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters.[13]

Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is driven by certain unsustainable development patterns such as "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance".[1]: 12  Therefore, vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain aspects within a region increase vulnerability, for example poverty, governance challenges and violent conflict. Some types of livelihoods are regarded as particularly climate-sensitive, resulting in a higher level of climate change vulnerability. These include for example smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities.[1]: 12 

Societal vulnerability to climate change is largely dependent on development status.[14]: 336  Developing countries lack the necessary financial resources to relocate those living in low-lying coastal zones, making them more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[15]: 317 

Geographic vulnerability

A second definition of vulnerability relates to geographic vulnerability. The most geographically vulnerable locations to climate change are those that will be impacted by side effects of natural hazards, such as rising sea levels and by dramatic changes in ecosystem services, including access to food. Island nations are usually noted as more vulnerable but communities that rely heavily on a sustenance based lifestyle are also at greater risk.[16]

Vulnerable communities tend to have one or more of these characteristics:[17] food insecure, water is scarce, delicate marine ecosystem, fish dependent, small island community.

Around the world, climate change affects rural communities that heavily depend on their agriculture and natural resources for their livelihood. Increased frequency and severity of climate events disproportionately affects women, rural, dryland, and island communities.[18] This leads to more drastic changes in their lifestyles and forces them to adapt to this change. It is becoming more important for local and government agencies to create strategies to react to change and adapt infrastructure to meet the needs of those impacted. Various organizations work to create adaptation, mitigation, and resilience plans that will help rural and at risk communities around the world that depend on the earth's resources to survive.[19]

Reducing vulnerability

Adapting to climate change involves structural, physical, social and institutional approaches. Clockwise from top left: mangrove planting and other habitat conservation; seawalls to protect against storm surge worsened by sea level rise; green roofs provide cooling in cities and reduce urban heat island effects; selective breeding for drought-resistant crops.

Vulnerability can be reduced through climate change adaptation measures.[1]: 5  For this reason, vulnerability is often framed in dialogue with climate change adaptation. Furthermore, measures that reduce poverty, gender inequality, bad governance and violent conflict would also reduce vulnerability. And finally, vulnerability would be reduced for everyone if decisive action on climate change was taken (climate change mitigation) so that the effects of climate change are less severe.

Climate justice

Equity is another essential component of vulnerability and is closely tied to issues of environmental justice and climate justice. As the most vulnerable communities are likely to be the most heavily impacted, a climate justice movement is coalescing in response. There are many aspects of climate justice that relate to vulnerability and resiliency. The frameworks are similar to other types of justice movements and include contractarianism which attempts to allocate the most benefits for the poor, utilitarianism which seeks to find the most benefits for the most people, egalitarianism which attempts to reduce inequality, and libertarianism which emphasizes a fair share of burden but also individual freedoms.[20]

Measurement tools

Vulnerability assessment is important because it provides information that can be used to develop management actions in response to climate change.[21] Climate vulnerability can be analyzed or evaluated using a number of processes or tools, depending mainly on the scale of assessment (see below).

Assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are available at all scales. Global vulnerability assessments are based on spatial mapping using aggregated data for the regional or national level.[22]: 1195–1199  Assessments are also done at sub-national and sectoral level, and also increasingly for cities on an urban district or neighbourhood scale. Vulnerability assessment is also done for local communities to evaluate where and how communities and livelihoods are vulnerable to climate change. Studies can vary widely in scope and scale-- for example the World Bank and Ministry of Economy of Fiji commissioned a report for the whole country in 2017-18[23] while the Rochester, New York commissioned a much more local report for the city in 2018.[24] Or, for example, NOAA Fisheries commissioned Climate Vulnerability assessments for marine fishers in the United States.[25] In some cases vulnerability assessment is done in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans.[26]

While the macro-scale vulnerability assessment often uses indices, modelling and participatory approaches are also used for which there are a range of tools (see below).

Indicators and indices

Global indices for climate change vulnerability include the ND-GAIN Country Index, which measures national climate vulnerability globally, INFORM Risk Index and the WorldRiskIndex, which include social vulnerability indices.[27] Indicator approaches are also used at national and sub-national levels. They use a composite index of many individual quantifiable indicators. To generate the index value or 'score', most often a simple average is calculated across a set of standardized values. However, sometimes weighting is done according what are thought to be the most important determinants of vulnerability.

Climate vulnerability tracking starts identifying the relevant information, preferably open access, produced by state or international bodies at the scale of interest. Then a further effort to make the vulnerability information freely accessible to all development actors is required.[28] Vulnerability tracking has many applications. It constitutes an indicator for the monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects for resilience and adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability tracking is also a decision making tool in regional and national adaptation policies.[28]

Tools for vulnerability assessment

Similarly as for climate risk assessment, tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale at which the study is being carried out, and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. Modelling and other participatory tools include WEAP for understanding water resource vulnerabilities and assessing adaptation options. The Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment.[29] Climate vulnerability mapping is also used to understand which areas are the most geographically vulnerable. A systematic review published in 2019 found 84 studies focused on the use of mapping to communicate and do analysis of climate vulnerability.[30]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers Archived 2023-01-22 at the Wayback Machine [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Archived 2022-03-18 at the Wayback Machine [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001.
  2. ↑ Füssel, Hans-Martin (2005-12-01). "Vulnerability in Climate Change Research: A Comprehensive Conceptual Framework". Archived from the original on 2021-04-17. Retrieved 2020-12-26. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  3. ↑ IPCC (2007a). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))". IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. Archived from the original on 2018-11-02. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
  4. ↑ Romanello, Marina; McGushin, Alice; Di Napoli, Claudia; Drummond, Paul; Hughes, Nick; Jamart, Louis; Kennard, Harry; Lampard, Pete; Solano Rodriguez, Baltazar; Arnell, Nigel; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Belesova, Kristine; Cai, Wenjia; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Capstick, Stuart; Chambers, Jonathan; Chu, Lingzhi; Ciampi, Luisa; Dalin, Carole; Dasandi, Niheer; Dasgupta, Shouro; Davies, Michael; Dominguez-Salas, Paula; Dubrow, Robert; Ebi, Kristie L; Eckelman, Matthew; Ekins, Paul; Escobar, Luis E; Georgeson, Lucien; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Gunther, Samuel H; Hartinger, Stella; He, Kehan; Heaviside, Clare; Hess, Jeremy; Hsu, Shih-Che; Jankin, Slava; Jimenez, Marcia P; Kelman, Ilan; et al. (October 2021). "The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future" (PDF). The Lancet. 398 (10311): 1619–1662. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6. hdl:10278/3746207. PMID 34687662. S2CID 239046862. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2023-04-07. Retrieved 2023-05-17.
  5. ↑ Smith, J. B.; et al. (2001). "Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.)". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. Archived from the original on 2018-10-05. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
  6. ↑ Boko, M.; et al. (2007). M. L. Parry; et al. (eds.). "Africa. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. pp. 433–467. Archived from the original on 23 January 2010. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
  7. ↑ Mata, L. J.; et al. (2001). "Latin America. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J. J. McCarthy et al. Eds.]". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. Archived from the original on 2018-10-05. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
  8. ↑ Hennessy, K.; et al. (2007). M. L. Parry; et al. (eds.). "Australia and New Zealand. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. pp. 507–540. Archived from the original on 19 January 2010. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
  9. ↑ Mimura, N.; et al. (2007). Executive summary. In (book chapter): Small islands. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry et al., (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2011-10-14. Retrieved 2010-05-23.
  10. ↑ Anisimov, O.; et al. (2001). Executive Summary. In (book chapter): Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy et al. (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. This version: GRID-Arendal website. ISBN 978-0-521-80768-5. Retrieved 2010-05-23.
  11. ↑ Kundzewicz, Z. W.; et al. (2001). J. J. McCarthy; et al. (eds.). "Europe. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. Archived from the original on 27 April 2012. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
  12. ↑ Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu; Ahmed, Maruf Yakubu; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa (2022-04-05). "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities". Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. 9 (1): 1–17. doi:10.1057/s41599-022-01130-7. ISSN 2662-9992. S2CID 247956525.
  13. ↑ M.J. Collier et al. "Transitioning to resilience and sustainability in urban communities" Cities 2013. 32:21–S28
  14. ↑ Nicholls, R. J.; et al. (2007). 6.4.3 Key vulnerabilities and hotspots. In (book chapter): Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-05-23.
  15. ↑ Nicholls, R. J.; et al. (2007). Executive summary. In (book chapter): Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-05-23.
  16. ↑ K. Hewitt (Ed.), Interpretations of Calamity for the Viewpoint of Human Ecology, Allen and Unwin, Boston (1983), pp. 231–262
  17. ↑ Kasperson, Roger E., and Jeanne X. Kasperson. Climate change, vulnerability, and social justice. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2001.
  18. ↑ "Climate Change". Natural Resources Institute. Archived from the original on 2021-05-11. Retrieved 2020-08-09.
  19. ↑ "Achieving Dryland Women's Empowerment: Environmental Resilience and Social Transformation Imperatives" (PDF). Natural Resources Institute. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-05-11. Retrieved 2020-08-09.
  20. ↑ Liu, F. (2000). Environmental justice analysis: Theories, methods and practice. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  21. ↑ "Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments | Climate Change Resource Center". www.fs.usda.gov. Archived from the original on 2022-10-04. Retrieved 2022-10-04.
  22. ↑ Birkmann, J., E. Liwenga, R. Pandey, E. Boyd, R. Djalante, F. Gemenne, W. Leal Filho, P.F. Pinho, L. Stringer, and D. Wrathall, 2022: Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development Archived 2023-03-14 at the Wayback Machine. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Archived 2022-02-28 at the Wayback Machine [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1171–1274, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.010.
  23. ↑ "Fiji: Climate Vulnerability Assessment | GFDRR". www.gfdrr.org. Archived from the original on 2021-01-21. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
  24. ↑ "CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT". City of Rochester NY. Archived from the original on 2020-10-31. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
  25. ↑ Fisheries, NOAA (2019-09-19). "Climate Vulnerability Assessments | NOAA Fisheries". NOAA. Archived from the original on 2021-03-23. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
  26. ↑ Tiepolo, Maurizio (2017). "Relevance and Quality of Climate Planning for Large and Medium-Sized Cities of the Tropics". In M. Tiepolo et al. (Eds.) Reviewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics. Cham, Springer. Green Energy and Technology: 199–226. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-59096-7_10. ISBN 978-3-319-59095-0.
  27. ↑ INFORM (2019), DRMKC - INFORM Archived 2023-05-18 at the Wayback Machine, European Commission Joint Research Center. Available at: https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/ Results/Global
  28. 1 2 Tiepolo, Maurizio; Bacci, Maurizio (2017). "Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Haiti using Open Source Information". In M. Tiepolo et al. (Eds.), Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics. Cham, Springer: 103–131. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-59096-7_6.
  29. ↑ Fritzsche, K., Schneiderbauer, S., Buseck, P., Kienberger, S., Buth, M., Zebisch, M. and Kahlenborn, W. (2017). The Vulnerability Sourcebook Archived 2023-05-18 at the Wayback Machine. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.
  30. ↑ Sherbinin, Alex de; Bukvic, Anamaria; Rohat, Guillaume; Gall, Melanie; McCusker, Brent; Preston, Benjamin; Apotsos, Alex; Fish, Carolyn; Kienberger, Stefan; Muhonda, Park; Wilhelmi, Olga (2019). "Climate vulnerability mapping: A systematic review and future prospects". WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5): e600. doi:10.1002/wcc.600. ISSN 1757-7799.
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