2012 Washington gubernatorial election
The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012.[1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012[2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election.[3]
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| Elections in Washington |
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Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term.[4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign.[5]
Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later.[6]
Primary election
Democratic candidates
- Rob Hill
- Jay Inslee, U.S. Representative for WA-01 (1999–2012) and WA-04 (1993–1995)[7]
Declined
- Lisa Brown, State Senate Majority Leader[8]
- Dow Constantine, King County Executive[9]
- Christine Gregoire, incumbent Governor[4]
- Jim McIntire, State Treasurer[10]
- Aaron Reardon, Snohomish County Executive[11]
- Ron Sims, former King County Executive and Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development[12]
- Brian Sonntag, State Auditor[13][14]
Republican candidates
- Shahram Hadian, pastor and small business owner[15]
- Javier O. Lopez
- Rob McKenna, Attorney General of Washington[16]
- Max Sampson
Declined
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative[17]
Independent candidates
- Christian Joubert
- L. Dale Sorgen, computer programmer and former pastor[18]
- James White
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Lisa Brown (D) |
Dow Constantine (D) |
Clint Didier (R) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Brian Sonntag (D) |
Aaron Reardon (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chism Strategies Archived 2011-09-15 at the Wayback Machine | June 28–30, 2011 | 408 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 20% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 49% |
Results
Results by county:
Inslee—40–50%
Inslee—50–60%
McKenna—40–50%
McKenna—50–60%
McKenna—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Inslee | 664,534 | 47.13 | |
| Republican | Rob McKenna | 604,872 | 42.90 | |
| Republican | Shahram Hadian | 46,169 | 3.27 | |
| Democratic | Rob Hill | 45,453 | 3.22 | |
| Independent | James White | 13,764 | 0.98 | |
| Independent | Christian Joubert | 10,457 | 0.74 | |
| Independent | L. Dale Sorgen | 9,734 | 0.69 | |
| Republican | Max Sampson | 8,753 | 0.62 | |
| Republican | Javier O. Lopez | 6,131 | 0.43 | |
| Total votes | 1,409,867 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Jay Inslee (Democratic), former U.S. Representative
- Rob McKenna (Republican), Attorney General of Washington
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 2, 2012 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Tilt D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[23] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Endorsements
Jay Inslee (D)
- U.S Presidents
- Newspapers
Rob McKenna (R)
- U.S. Representatives
- Statewide officials
- Brian Sonntag, 9th Washington State Auditor (Democrat)[27]
- State legislators
- Mark Doumit, former state senator (Democrat)[27]
- Tim Sheldon, state senator (Democrat)[27]
- Newspapers
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 14 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 47.3% | 46.3% | 6.4% | Inslee +1.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–3, 2012 | 932 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| KING5/SurveyUSA | October 28–31, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll | October 18–31, 2012 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Elway Poll | October 18–21, 2012 | 451 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 47% | 10% |
| Strategies360 | October 17–20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling/WCV | October 15–16, 2012 | 574 | ± n/a% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll | October 1–16, 2012 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 45% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | October 12–14, 2012 | 543 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | September 28–30, 2012 | 540 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 26, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Public Elway Poll | September 9–12, 2012 | 405 | ± 5% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 7–9, 2012 | 563 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Survey USA | September 7–9, 2012 | 524 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Survey USA | August 2–3, 2012 | 524 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Elway Poll | July 18–22, 2012 | 405 | ± 5.0% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Survey USA | July 16–17, 2012 | 630 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 14–17, 2012 | 1,073 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Elway Poll | June 13–16, 2012 | 408 | ± 5.0% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Strategies360 | May 22–24, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| Survey USA | May 8–9, 2012 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Grove Insights (D)[upper-alpha 1] | March 26–28, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| Grove Insights (D)[upper-alpha 1] | February 21–23, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ± 2.8% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Survey USA | February 13–15, 2012 | 572 | ± 4.2% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| Elway Poll | February 7–9, 2012 | 405 | ± 5.0% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Survey USA | January 12–16, 2012 | 617 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Survey USA | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 44% | 17% |
| Washington Poll | October 10–30, 2011 | 938 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
| Survey USA | September 21–22, 2011 | 529 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
| Survey USA | June 24–26, 2011 | 600 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Survey USA | April 27–28, 2011 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
- Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Christine Gregoire (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Survey USA | April 27–28, 2011 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 52% | 7% |
- Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Christine Gregoire (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Survey USA | April 27–28, 2011 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Survey USA | April 27–28, 2011 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
- Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lisa Brown (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | July 27-August 1, 2010 | 1,204 | ± 2.8% | 29% | 47% | 24% |
Results
The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast.[28] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening.[29]
Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory.[30]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Inslee | 1,582,802 | 51.40% | -1.60% | |
| Republican | Rob McKenna | 1,488,245 | 48.33% | +1.78% | |
| Write-in | 8,592 | 0.28% | -0.17% | ||
| Total votes | 3,079,639 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Results by county
| County[32] | Jay Inslee
Democratic |
Rob McKenna
Republican |
Total votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 1,408 | 29.78% | 3,320 | 70.22% | 4,728 |
| Asotin | 4,027 | 41.5% | 5,677 | 58.5% | 9,704 |
| Benton | 27,291 | 34.97% | 50,757 | 65.03% | 78,048 |
| Chelan | 11,616 | 36.41% | 20,291 | 63.59% | 31,907 |
| Clallam | 17,516 | 46.66% | 20,021 | 53.34% | 37,537 |
| Clark | 86,732 | 46.92% | 98,131 | 53.08% | 184,863 |
| Columbia | 656 | 29.54% | 1,565 | 70.46% | 2,221 |
| Cowlitz | 21,051 | 48.21% | 22,612 | 51.79% | 43,663 |
| Douglas | 4,746 | 31.88% | 10,139 | 68.12% | 14,885 |
| Ferry | 1,299 | 37.98% | 2,121 | 62.02% | 3,420 |
| Franklin | 8,181 | 36.5% | 14,232 | 63.5% | 22,413 |
| Garfield | 333 | 26.58% | 920 | 73.42% | 1,253 |
| Grant | 8,654 | 31.59% | 18,742 | 68.41% | 28,396 |
| Grays Harbor | 14,491 | 50.9% | 13,978 | 49.1% | 28,469 |
| Island | 19,324 | 46.67% | 22,082 | 53.33% | 41,406 |
| Jefferson | 12,176 | 62.29% | 7,370 | 37.71% | 19,546 |
| King | 590,879 | 62.36% | 356,713 | 37.64% | 947,592 |
| Kitsap | 60,578 | 49.72% | 61,261 | 50.28% | 121,839 |
| Kittitas | 7,137 | 39.9% | 10,752 | 60.1% | 17,889 |
| Klickitat | 4,442 | 44.07% | 5,638 | 55.93% | 10,090 |
| Lewis | 11,865 | 35.03% | 22,002 | 64.97% | 33,867 |
| Lincoln | 1,716 | 29.57% | 4,088 | 70.43% | 5,804 |
| Mason | 13,175 | 47.25% | 14,708 | 52.75% | 27,883 |
| Okanogan | 6,759 | 40.55% | 9,909 | 59.45% | 16,668 |
| Pacific | 5,379 | 51.73% | 5,020 | 48.27% | 10,399 |
| Pend Oreille | 2,442 | 37.06% | 4,148 | 62.94% | 6,590 |
| Pierce | 164,211 | 48.54% | 174,078 | 51.46% | 338,289 |
| San Juan | 6,763 | 64.82% | 3,671 | 35.18% | 10,434 |
| Skagit | 25,878 | 47.33% | 28,803 | 52.67% | 54,681 |
| Skamania | 2,434 | 45.92% | 2,867 | 54.08% | 5,301 |
| Snohomish | 166,452 | 51.23% | 158,440 | 48.77% | 324,892 |
| Spokane | 95,354 | 43.49% | 123,894 | 56.51% | 219,248 |
| Stevens | 7,426 | 33.79% | 14,554 | 66.21% | 21,980 |
| Thurston | 67,353 | 53.75% | 57,948 | 46.25% | 125,301 |
| Wahkiakum | 964 | 42.83% | 1,287 | 57.17% | 2,251 |
| Walla Walla | 9,353 | 38.03% | 15,238 | 61.97% | 24,591 |
| Whatcom | 53,599 | 53.1% | 47,340 | 46.9% | 100,939 |
| Whitman | 7,351 | 41.67% | 9,421 | 58.33% | 16,772 |
| Yakima | 31,791 | 41.67% | 44,507 | 58.33% | 76,298 |
| Totals | 1,582,802 | 51.54% | 1,488,245 | 48.46% | 3,071,047 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
- Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
- Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
- Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)
By congressional district
Inslee won 5 of 10 congressional districts with the remaining 5 going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat.[33]
| District | McKenna | Inslee | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 48% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 46% | 54% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 54% | 46% | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
| 4th | 63% | 37% | Doc Hastings |
| 5th | 58% | 42% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 49% | 51% | Norm Dicks |
| Derek Kilmer | |||
| 7th | 26% | 74% | Jim McDermott |
| 8th | 57% | 43% | Dave Reichert |
| 9th | 39% | 61% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 49% | 51% | Denny Heck |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Service Employees International Union, which supports Inslee
References
- "Washington's 2012 elections". Balletopedia - The Encyclopedia of American Politics. Balletopedia. Archived from the original on May 8, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
- "RCW 29a.04.311: Primaries". apps.leg.wa.gov. Archived from the original on August 13, 2011. Retrieved July 2, 2011.
- Pages - Top 2 Primary Archived April 25, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- Garber, Andrew (June 13, 2011). "2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on June 16, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2011.
- Grygiel, Chris (March 10, 2012). "US Rep. Inslee to resign for Wash. gov. race". The News Tribune. Associated Press.
- Brunner, Jim (November 10, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
- "Inslee Announcement Prompts More Democratic Interest" Archived 2011-06-29 at the Wayback Machine, Roll Call Politics
- "Lisa Brown endorses Inslee"
- "Inslee Running for Gov; Constantine Cheers Him on Facebook - PubliCola". 30 June 2011. Archived from the original on 30 June 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2011.
- 2012 races take shape - Elections - The Olympian
- Haglund, Noah (October 19, 2011). "Aaron Reardon says he has no plans to run for governor or Congress". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on October 22, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
- Sims Quits HUD Post, Hotline On Call Archived June 16, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- Garber, Andrew (July 5, 2011). "Brian Sonntag will not run for governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on July 9, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
- "State auditor Brian Sonntag makes decision on governor's race-KING5.com Seattle". Archived from the original on July 28, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
- Cornfield, Jerry (August 9, 2011). "Everett pastor enters governor race". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
- Brunner, Jim (June 8, 2011). "McKenna launches campaign for governor". The Seattle Times.
- Connelly, Joel (June 8, 2011). "Reichert: I'll support McKenna for governor". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Archived from the original on June 10, 2011. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
- Rathbun, Andy (November 19, 2009). "Sultan man declares 2012 governor bid". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on July 28, 2012. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
- "Governor". Archived from the original on November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 13, 2012.
- "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "Obama Endorses Jay Inslee". The Stranger.
- "Updated: Gubernatorial newspaper endorsement tally: 12 recommend Rob McKenna, while Olympian gives Jay Inslee the nod". The Seattle Times. October 24, 2020.
- "The Stranger Election Control Board's Endorsements For the November 6, 2012, General Election". The Stranger. October 17, 2012.
- "Democrats for McKenna (D4R) Launches". June 12, 2012.
- "Inslee vs. McKenna could drag on". The Seattle Times. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
- Brunner, Jim (November 9, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
- Johnson, Kirk (November 28, 2012). "In West's 'Democratopolis,' Winning an Election With Only 8 of 39 Counties". The New York Times. p. A22. Archived from the original on March 2, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
- "November 06, 2012 General Election Results: Governor". Washington State Secretary of State. November 27, 2012. Archived from the original on August 31, 2021. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
- "2012 Gubernatorial General Election Results". U.S. Election Atlas. November 6, 2012. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
- Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.
External links
- Elections & Voting at the Washington Secretary of State office
- Official campaign websites
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