2016 Washington gubernatorial election
The 2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.
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Under Washington's top-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent governor Jay Inslee (Democratic)[1] and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won. As of 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Washington in which the margin of victory was within single digits.
Background
Democratic governor Christine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. Representative Jay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating Republican Rob McKenna, the outgoing Attorney General of Washington, by 51.4% to 48.3%. The last Republican to hold the office of governor was John Spellman in 1985, meaning that Washington has the second longest period (South Dakota has not had a Democratic governor since 1979) of one-party statehouse rule in America.[2]
Primary election
Declared
- James Robert Deal[3]
- Johnathan Dodds[3]
- Jay Inslee, incumbent governor
- Patrick O'Rourke[3]
Declared
- Bill Bryant, former Seattle Port Commissioner[4]
- Goodspaceguy, perennial candidate[3]
- Bill Hirt[3]
Declined
- Andy Hill, state senator[5]
- Steve Litzow, state senator (running for reelection)[5]
- Rob McKenna, former Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[6][7]
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative for Washington's 8th congressional district (running for reelection)[8]
Declared
- David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic)[3]
- Christian Joubert (Holistic)[3]
- Mary Martin (Socialist Workers)[3]
- Steve Rubenstein (Independent)
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- with Inslee, Bryant, and Dorn
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Randy Dorn (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Poll | April 14–17, 2016 | 503 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 26% | 7% | 25% |
Results
Results by county:
Inslee—40–50%
Inslee—60–70%
Bryant—30–40%
Bryant—40–50%
Bryant—50–60%
Bryant—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Inslee (incumbent) | 687,412 | 49.30 | |
| Republican | Bill Bryant | 534,519 | 38.33 | |
| Republican | Bill Hirt | 48,382 | 3.47 | |
| Democratic | Patrick O'Rourke | 40,572 | 2.91 | |
| Independent | Steve Rubenstein | 22,582 | 1.62 | |
| Democratic | James Robert Deal | 14,623 | 1.05 | |
| Democratic | Johnathan Dodds | 14,152 | 1.01 | |
| Republican | Goodspaceguy | 13,191 | 0.95 | |
| Socialist Workers | Mary Martin | 10,374 | 0.74 | |
| Independent | David Blomstrom | 4,512 | 0.32 | |
| Independent | Christian Joubert | 4,103 | 0.29 | |
| Total votes | 1,394,422 | 100 | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 19, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Safe D | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[13] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[15] | Lean D | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[16] | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
Endorsements
Jay Inslee (D)
- U.S Presidents
- Newspapers
Bill Bryant (R)
- U.S. Senators
- Slade Gorton, former U.S. Senator from Washington[22]
- U.S. Representatives
- Sid Morrison, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district[23]
- Dan Newhouse, U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district[24]
- Statewide officials
- Dan Evans, 16th Governor of Washington and former U.S. Senator from Washington[25]
- Rob McKenna, 17th Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[26]
- State legislators
- Jan Angel, state senator[27]
- Mary Dye, state representative[24]
- Curtis King, state senator[28]
- Brad Klippert, state representative[24]
- Matt Manweller, state representative[29]
- Joe Schmick, state representative[24]
- Maureen Walsh, state representative[24]
- Newspapers
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 6 – November 2, 2016 | November 2, 2016 | 50.7% | 42.3% | 7.0% | Inslee +8.4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,451 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Insights West Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine | November 4–6, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 40% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,292 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 944 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA | October 31 – November 2, 2016 | 667 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 43% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 807 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 698 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 745 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Elway Poll | October 20–22, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| KCTS 9/YouGov | October 6–13, 2016 | 750 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| Strategies 360/KOMO News | September 29 – October 3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 8% |
| Elway Poll | August 9–13, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 36% | 18% |
| Elway Poll | April 14–17, 2016 | 503 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Elway Poll | December 28–30, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 34% | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
- Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Andy Hill (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 31% | 24% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 34% | 22% |
- Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Poll | December 28–30, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 30% | 25% | 45% |
- Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 47% | 15% |
| Moore Information | May 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 5% | 20% |
| Moore Information | May 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 30% | 16% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Inslee (incumbent) | 1,760,520 | 54.25% | +2.85% | |
| Republican | Bill Bryant | 1,476,346 | 45.49% | -2.84% | |
| Write-in | 8,416 | 0.26% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 3,245,282 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Results by county
| County[35] | Jay Inslee
Democratic |
Bill Bryant
Republican |
Write-in
Various |
Total votes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 1,533 | 32.64% | 3,151 | 67.1% | 12 | 0.26% | 4,696 |
| Asotin | 4,149 | 42.46% | 5,609 | 57.4% | 13 | 0.13% | 9,771 |
| Benton | 31,128 | 37.95% | 50,730 | 61.84% | 172 | 0.21% | 82,030 |
| Chelan | 13,866 | 40.94% | 19,934 | 58.86% | 65 | 0.19% | 33,865 |
| Clallam | 19,354 | 48.87% | 20,180 | 50.78% | 140 | 0.35% | 39,602 |
| Clark | 96,032 | 47.93% | 103,787 | 51.8% | 560 | 0.28% | 200,379 |
| Columbia | 688 | 31.5% | 1,491 | 68.27% | 5 | 0.23% | 2,184 |
| Cowlitz | 19,593 | 42.75% | 26,116 | 56.98% | 124 | 0.27% | 45,833 |
| Douglas | 5,441 | 34.73% | 10,197 | 65.09% | 28 | 0.18% | 15,666 |
| Ferry | 1,360 | 37.56% | 2,252 | 62.19% | 9 | 0.25% | 3,621 |
| Franklin | 9,731 | 40.27% | 14,387 | 59.54% | 45 | 0.19% | 24,163 |
| Garfield | 370 | 29.65% | 875 | 70.11% | 3 | 0.24% | 1,248 |
| Grant | 9,242 | 32.16% | 19,401 | 67.5% | 99 | 0.34% | 28,742 |
| Grays Harbor | 14,038 | 48.43% | 14,843 | 51.2% | 107 | 0.37% | 28,988 |
| Island | 21,797 | 50.16% | 21,560 | 49.61% | 98 | 0.23% | 43,455 |
| Jefferson | 13,399 | 65.24% | 7,049 | 34.32% | 90 | 0.44% | 20,538 |
| King | 677,943 | 67.69% | 321,242 | 32.07% | 2,409 | 0.24% | 1,001,594 |
| Kitsap | 66,392 | 52.47% | 59,762 | 47.23% | 368 | 0.29% | 126,522 |
| Kittitas | 7,984 | 41.66% | 11,139 | 58.13% | 40 | 0.21% | 19,163 |
| Klickitat | 4,517 | 41.82% | 6,260 | 57.96% | 24 | 0.22% | 10,801 |
| Lewis | 11,163 | 32.09% | 23,539 | 67.66% | 86 | 0.25% | 34,788 |
| Lincoln | 1,616 | 27.92% | 4,160 | 71.89% | 11 | 0.19% | 5,787 |
| Mason | 13,126 | 45.92% | 15,365 | 53.75% | 93 | 0.33% | 28,584 |
| Okanogan | 7,437 | 43.06% | 9,794 | 56.71% | 39 | 0.23% | 17,270 |
| Pacific | 5,313 | 49.29% | 5,428 | 50.36% | 37 | 0.34% | 10,778 |
| Pend Oreille | 2,520 | 36.5% | 4,364 | 63.21% | 20 | 0.29% | 6,904 |
| Pierce | 176,825 | 49.94% | 176,287 | 49.79% | 953 | 0.27% | 354,065 |
| San Juan | 7,509 | 68.89% | 3,356 | 30.79% | 35 | 0.32% | 10,900 |
| Skagit | 28,273 | 49.47% | 28,701 | 50.22% | 173 | 0.3% | 57,147 |
| Skamania | 2,476 | 44.35% | 3,094 | 55.42% | 13 | 0.23% | 5,583 |
| Snohomish | 182,544 | 52.12% | 166,770 | 47.61% | 937 | 0.27% | 350,251 |
| Spokane | 106,009 | 45.87% | 124,576 | 53.91% | 508 | 0.22% | 231,093 |
| Stevens | 7,148 | 31.02% | 15,851 | 68.79% | 45 | 0.2% | 23,044 |
| Thurston | 71,835 | 54.67% | 59,014 | 44.91% | 559 | 0.43% | 131,408 |
| Wahkiakum | 941 | 39.89% | 1,413 | 59.9% | 5 | 0.21% | 2,359 |
| Walla Walla | 10,705 | 41.77% | 14,880 | 58.06% | 44 | 0.17% | 25,629 |
| Whatcom | 62,634 | 56.45% | 47,953 | 43.22% | 370 | 0.33% | 110,957 |
| Whitman | 8,727 | 49.41% | 8,892 | 50.35% | 43 | 0.24% | 17,662 |
| Yakima | 35,162 | 44.96% | 43,016 | 55.0% | 34 | 0.04% | 78,212 |
| Totals | 1,760,520 | 54.25% | 1,476,346 | 45.49% | 8,416 | 0.26% | 3,245,282 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
- Pacific (largest city: Raymond)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Inslee won 6 of 10 congressional districts.[36]
| District | Bryant | Inslee | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49% | 51% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 43% | 57% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 55% | 45% | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
| 4th | 60% | 40% | Dan Newhouse |
| 5th | 56% | 44% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 46% | 54% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 22% | 78% | Jim McDermott |
| Pramila Jayapal | |||
| 8th | 54% | 46% | Dave Reichert |
| 9th | 33% | 67% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 47% | 53% | Denny Heck |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
- "Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
- Connelly, Joel (September 29, 2014). "What 2014 elections say about 2016 governor's race". Seattle Pi. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
- Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
- Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- O'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015). "Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved September 14, 2015.
- Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
- Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013). "If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016". HeraldNet. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 10, 2014.
- Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2015.
- Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016). "State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor". Q13 Fox. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
- "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - Governor". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- "President Obama to Washington Democrats: Stay involved". The Spokesman-Review.
- "We endorse: Inslee 2.0 — Keep him as governor, but demand a stronger version". The News Tribune. October 20, 2016.
- "THE OLYMPIAN'S 2016 ENDORSEMENTS". The Olympian. November 5, 2016.
- "The Times recommends: Despite flaws, Jay Inslee is the better choice for governor". The Seattle Times. October 21, 2016.
- "Endorsements for the November 2016 General Election". The Stranger. October 18, 2016.
- "Former WA senator Gorton endorses Bill Bryant for governor". King 5 News. September 18, 2015.
- "Former Congressman Sid Morrison Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 22, 2015.
- "Newhouse endorses Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2015.
- "Democrats and Republicans surprised by early governor's race". Covington Reporter. October 2, 2015.
- "Gov's race 2016: Rob McKenna's advice to Bill Bryant". King 5 News. August 16, 2016.
- "Senator Jan Angel Endorses Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 30, 2015.
- "Senator Curtis King Backs Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 25, 2015.
- "Rep. Matt Manweller Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 21, 2015.
- "Review of all S-R endorsements". The Spokesman-Review. October 26, 2016.
- "Our voice: We recommend Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2016.
- "Review of U-B election endorsements". Walla Walla Union-Bulletin. October 23, 2016.
- "Endorsement: Bryant able to provide gubernatorial leadership". Yakima Herald-Republic. October 22, 2016.
- "November 8, 2016 General Election Results (Washington)". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
- "2016 Gubernatorial General Election Results". U.S. Election Atlas. November 8, 2016. Retrieved June 12, 2022.
- Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
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