2016 United States Senate elections

All 34 Class 3 senators were up for election in 2016; Class 3 consisted of 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans. Of the senators not up for election, 34 of the senators not up for election were Democrats, 30 senators were Republicans, and two senators were independents who caucused with the Senate Democrats.

Parties								Total
		Democratic	Republican	Independent	Libertarian	Green	Other
Before these elections		44	54	2	—	—	—	100
Not up		34	30	2	—	—	—	66
	Class 1 (2012→2018)	23	8	2	—	—	—	33
	Class 2 (2014→2020)	11	22	0	—	—	—	33
Up		10	24	0	—	—	—	34
	Class 3 (2010→2016)	10	24	0	—	—	—	34
	Special: All classes	0	0	0	—	—	—	0
General election
Incumbent retired		3	2	—	—	—	—	5
	Held by same party	3	2	—	—	—	—	5
	Replaced by other party	0	0	—	—	—	—	0
	Result	3	2	—	—	—	—	5
Incumbent ran		7	22	—	—	—	—	29
	Won re-election	7	20	—	—	—	—	27
	Lost re-election	2 Republicans replaced by 2 Democrats		—	—	—	—	2
	Lost renomination but held by same party	0	0	—	—	—	—	0
	Result	9	20	—	—	—	—	29
Total elected		12	22	—	—	—	—	34
Net gain/loss		2	2					2
Nationwide vote		51,315,969	40,841,717	626,763	1,788,112	695,838	1,598,110	96,866,509
	Share	52.98%	42.16%	0.65%	1.85%	0.72%	1.65%	100%
Result		46	52	2	—	—	—	100

Source: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives[1]

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors used:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely" or "favored": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Where a site gives a percentage probability as its primary indicator of expected outcome, the chart below classifies a race as follows:

• Tossup: 50-55%
• Tilt: 56-60%
• Lean: 61-75%
• Likely: 76-93%
• Safe: 94-100%

The New York Times's Upshot gave the Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate on August 24, 2016;[4] on September 23, their model gave Republicans a 58% chance to maintain control.[5]

This table shows the primary dates for regularly-scheduled elections. It also shows the type of primary.

• "Open" primary: any registered voter can vote in any party's primary
• "Closed" primary, only voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary.
• "Top-two" primary, all candidates run against each other regardless of party affiliation, and the top two candidates advance to the second round of voting. (In Louisiana, a candidate can win the election by winning a majority of the vote in the first round.)
• All of the various other primary types are classified as "hybrid." Alaska in 2008 provides one example of a hybrid primary: The Democratic Party allowed unaffiliated voters to vote in its primary, while the Republican Party only allowed party members to vote in its primary.[13]

^RIndicates a state that requires primary run-off elections under certain conditions.

Nine races had a margin of victory under 10%:

Alabama election

Nominee Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,335,104 748,709 Percentage 64.0% 35.9%

County results

U.S. senator before election Richard Shelby Republican Elected U.S. Senator Richard Shelby Republican

Incumbent Republican Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee.[16] Shelby won re-election with 63.9% of the vote.

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that didn't happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015.[16] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former Governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.[75][76][77] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.[78]

Alaska election

Nominee Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller Party Republican Libertarian Popular vote 138,149 90,825 Percentage 44.4% 29.2%   Nominee Margaret Stock Ray Metcalfe Party Independent Democratic Popular vote 41,194 36,200 Percentage 13.2% 11.6%

Results by state house district: Murkowski:      30-40%      40-50%      50-60% Miller:      40-50%

U.S. senator before election Lisa Murkowski Republican Elected U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski Republican

Two-term Senator Lisa Murkowski (Republican) was appointed in 2002 and elected to a full term in 2004. She was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Joe Miller. She later ran as a write-in candidate in the 2010 general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 40% of the vote, making her one of two senators in US history to win election via write-in votes. She was 59 years old in 2016. She ran for re-election.[18]

Thomas Lamb, a candidate for the State House in 2006, and Bob Lochner filed to run against Murkowski.[81] Other potential Republican primary challengers included 2010 nominee and 2014 candidate Joe Miller, State Senator Mike J. Dunleavy, former Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, and former Mayor of Anchorage Dan Sullivan.[82]

The only person to file for the Democratic primary as of May 20 was writer and satirist Richard Grayson, who previously sought election to Wyoming's House seat in 2014.[83][84][85][81] Potential Democratic candidates included State Senator Dennis Egan, State Representative Andy Josephson, State Senator Bill Wielechowski, State Senator Hollis French and State Senate Minority Leader Johnny Ellis.[86] Former Senator Mark Begich was mentioned as a possible candidate,[87] but he declined to run.[88]

Murkowski won her primary on August 16, 2016 with 72 percent of the vote. Joe Miller received the Libertarian nomination and ran against Murkowski in the general election. Anchorage attorney and veteran Margaret Stock ran as an Independent candidate.[89]

Murkowski won re-election with 44% of the vote compared to Miller with 30% and Metcalfe with 11%. 15% went to other candidates. Murkowski has been re-elected three times now with 48% in 2004, 39.5% in 2010 and 44% in 2016, never having won a majority.

Arizona election

Nominee John McCain Ann Kirkpatrick Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,359,267 1,031,245 Percentage 53.7% 40.8%   Nominee Gary Swing Party Green Popular vote 138,634 Percentage 5.5%

County results

U.S. senator before election John McCain Republican Elected U.S. Senator John McCain Republican

Five-term Senator and Republican presidential candidate in 2008 John McCain was re-elected with 59% of the vote in 2010. He was 80 years old in 2016. Despite speculation that he might retire,[92] McCain ran for re-election.[21]

McCain faced primary challenges from Fair Tax activist Alex Meluskey, businessman David Pizer,[93] talk radio host Clair Van Steenwyk,[94] and State Senator Kelli Ward.[95] David Pizer later dropped out of the race. Representatives Matt Salmon and David Schweikert were both mentioned as possible candidates,[96] but both chose not to run.[97][98] Other potential Republican candidates included former Governor Jan Brewer,[99] businesswoman and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones,[100] former Governor of Alaska and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin,[101] former U.S. Representative John Shadegg,[102] and former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods.[102]

Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick[22] and teacher Lennie Clark[103] ran for the Democratic nomination. Lennie Clark dropped out and Ann Kirkpatrick became the Democratic nominee. Other potential Democratic candidates included U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, former Surgeon General and 2012 nominee Richard Carmona, 2014 gubernatorial nominee Fred DuVal, Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, and retired astronaut Mark Kelly, who is the husband of ex-Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.[76][104]

Sen. McCain won re-election with 53% to Kirkpatrick's 41%.

Arkansas election

Nominee John Boozman Conner Eldridge Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 661,984 400,602 Percentage 59.8% 36.2%

County results

U.S. senator before election John Boozman Republican Elected U.S. Senator John Boozman Republican

One-term Senator John Boozman (Republican) defeated two-term Senator Blanche Lincoln with 58% of the vote in 2010. He was 65 years old in 2016. Despite speculation that he might retire following health problems,[107][108] Boozman ran for re-election.[23] Fellow Republican Curtis Coleman, who ran against Boozman in 2010 but came in fifth place, ran again.[109]

Conner Eldridge, the former U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas, is the only Democrat who met the filing deadline.[110]

Frank Gilbert was the candidate for the Libertarian Party,[111][112][113] and Jason Tate was running a write-in campaign.[114]

Incumbent Republican Senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator re-elected in the history of the state.

Sen. Boozman won re-election with 60% to Eldridge's 36%.

California election

Candidate Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Party Democratic Democratic Popular vote 7,542,753 4,701,417 Percentage 61.6% 38.4%

County Results Harris   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Sanchez   50-60%   60-70%

U.S. senator before election Barbara Boxer Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Kamala Harris Democratic

Four-term Senator Barbara Boxer (Democrat) was re-elected with 52% of the vote in 2010. Boxer declined to run for re-election.[117] California Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, finished first and second, respectively,[118] in California's nonpartisan blanket primary, and contested the general election. As such, Boxer's successor was guaranteed to be a Democrat.[119] This marked a historic first such occasion in California, ever since the Senate elections began in 1914.

Other Democrats on the primary ballot included "President" Cristina Grappo, Massie Munroe, Herbert Peters, Emory Rogers, and Steve Stokes.[120] Among the potential candidates who declined to run were Governor Jerry Brown, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, U.S. Representatives Xavier Becerra and Adam Schiff, and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.

Former state Republican Party chairs Tom Del Beccaro[121] and Duf Sundheim,[122] and former State Senator Phil Wyman[123][124] ran, along with Don Krampe,[125] Tom Palzer,[126] Karen Roseberry,[127] Greg Conlon, Von Huogo, Jerry Laws, Ron Unz, Jarrell Williamson, and George Yang.[120] State Assemblymen Rocky Chavez was running as well,[128] but withdrew from the race.[129] Republicans who were once considered potential candidates but ruled out runs included San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Neel Kashkari, U.S. Representative Darrell Issa, and businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Carly Fiorina.[130]

Independent Mike Beitiks ran on a single-issue climate change platform.[131]

Polling conducted by the SurveyUSA from March 30, 2016 to April 3, 2016 indicated that Harris was ahead with 26%, compared to Rep. Sánchez with 22%, Del Beccaro with 8%, Wyman with 8%, and Sundheim with 3%; 7% of those polled were supporting other candidates, and 24% were undecided.[132]

Harris won the election with 62% of the vote to Sanchez's 38%.

Colorado election

Nominee Michael Bennet Darryl Glenn Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,370,710 1,215,318 Percentage 50.0% 44.3%

County results

U.S. senator before election Michael Bennet Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Michael Bennet Democratic

One-term Senator Michael Bennet (Democrat) was appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term with 48% of the vote in 2010. He was 51 years old in 2016. He ran for re-election.[26]

Businessman Robert Blaha,[135] former Aurora councilman Ryan Frazier,[136] El Paso County Commissioners Darryl Glenn,[27] and Peggy Littleton,[137] former Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack Graham,[138] State Representative Jon Keyser,[139] former SBA director Greg Lopez,[140] State Senator Tim Neville,[141] and Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier[142][143] ran for the Republican nomination. Glenn, Graham, Blaha, Keyser, and Frazier actually competed in the primary.[144]

Darryl Glenn won the Republican nomination with 37% of the vote against four other opponents.[144]

Bennet won re-election with 50% of the vote to Glenn's 44%.

Connecticut election

Nominee Richard Blumenthal Dan Carter Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,008,714 552,621 Percentage 63.2% 34.6%

County results

U.S. senator before election Richard Blumenthal Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal Democratic

One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) was elected with 55% of the vote in 2010. He was 70 years old in 2016. He ran for re-election.[28]

State Representative Dan Carter,[29] apparel company CEO and 2004 Senate nominee Jack Orchulli,[147] and former Olympic athlete August Wolf[148] ran for the Republican nomination. Another potential candidate was former West Hartford Town Councilor Joe Visconti, who ran for CT-01 in 2008 and ran as an Independent for Governor in 2014.[149] Former U.S. Comptroller General and 2014 candidate for Lieutenant Governor David M. Walker,[150][151] former U.S. Representative and 2010 candidate Rob Simmons,[152] and economist and former CNBC television host Lawrence Kudlow declined to run.[153][154]

Blumenthal won re-election with 63% of the vote to Carter's 35%.

Florida election

Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 4,835,191 4,122,088 Percentage 52.0% 44.3%

County results

U.S. senator before election Marco Rubio Republican Elected U.S. Senator Marco Rubio Republican

One-term Senator Marco Rubio (Republican) was elected in a three-way race with 49% of the vote in 2010. In April 2014, Rubio stated that he would not run for both the Senate and President in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from appearing twice on a ballot.[156] In April 2015, he announced that he would run for President and would not seek re-election.[157] After suspending his campaign on March 15, 2016, Rubio announced on June 22, 2016 that he changed his mind and will run for re-election.[30]

U.S. Representative Ron DeSantis, combat veteran Todd Wilcox,[158] real estate developer Carlos Beruff,[159] retired college lecturer Ilya Katz,[160] and Donald J. DeRenzo ran for the Republican nomination.[161][162] Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon and candidate for President in 2016 was also mentioned as a potential candidate.[163] On June 17, 2016, U.S. Representative David Jolly withdrew from the race to run for re-election to his House seat, four days after Rubio began openly considering reversing his decision to not run for re-election.[164]

U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy[31] defeated fellow representative Alan Grayson, as well as Pam Keith, Lateresa Jones, Richard Coleman, Sam Brian Gibbons, and Josh Larose, for the Democratic nomination. Murphy lost to incumbent Marco Rubio in the November general election on November 8.[165]

Sen. Rubio won re-election with 52% of the vote compared to Murphy's 44%.

Georgia election

Nominee Johnny Isakson Jim Barksdale Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 2,135,806 1,599,726 Percentage 54.8% 41.0%

County results

U.S. senator before election Johnny Isakson Republican Elected U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson Republican

Two-term Senator Johnny Isakson (Republican) was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2010. He was 71 years old in 2016. He ran for re-election.[32] In 2015, Isakson announced he was being treated for Parkinson's disease, but stated that his treatment would not interfere with his re-election campaign or his ability to serve another term.[167]

Mary Kay Bacallao, college professor, former Fayette County Board of Education member, and candidate for State Superintendent of Schools in 2014[168] and Derrick Grayson, candidate for the state's other Senate seat in 2014,[169] challenged Isakson for the Republican nomination. Isakson won the Republican nomination with more than three quarters of the vote.[170]

Investment firm executive Jim Barksdale,[33] project manager Cheryl Copeland,[171] and businessman John Coyne[172] ran for the Democratic nomination. USAF veteran Jim Knox was running but dropped out of the race.[173] Barksdale defeated Copeland in a close race to win the Democratic nomination.[170]

Sen. Isakson won re-election with 55% to Barksdale's 41%.

Hawaii election

Nominee Brian Schatz John Carroll Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 306,604 92,653 Percentage 73.6% 22.2%

County results

U.S. senator before election Brian Schatz Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Brian Schatz Democratic

In 2012, Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz (Democrat) to take the place of deceased nine-term Senator Daniel Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term. Schatz ran for re-election.[28]

Former U.S. Representative and 2014 Senate candidate Colleen Hanabusa considered challenging Schatz in the primary again,[176] while U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard declined to seek the Democratic nomination for the seat.[177]

Charles Collins, a Republican who ran for the Senate in 2012 and for Governor in 2014, was seeking the nomination again,[178] but withdrew from the race.[179]

Sen. Schatz won re-election with 74% of the vote compared to Carroll's 22%.

Idaho election

Nominee Mike Crapo Jerry Sturgill Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 449,017 188,249 Percentage 66.1% 27.7%   Nominee Ray Writz Party Constitution Popular vote 41,677 Percentage 6.1%

County results

U.S. senator before election Mike Crapo Republican Elected U.S. Senator Mike Crapo Republican

Three-term Senator Mike Crapo (Republican) was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2010. Crapo was 65 years old in 2016. He ran for re-election.[35] U.S Representative Raul Labrador declined to challenge Crapo in the Republican primary.[184][185]

Jerry Sturgill ran for the Democratic nomination.[36]

Perennial candidate Pro-Life ran as an independent.[186][187] He was defeated in the Constitution Party primary on May 17, 2016 to Ray J. Writz.[188]

Sen. Crapo was re-elected.

Illinois election

Nominee Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 3,012,940 2,184,693 Percentage 54.9% 39.8%

Duckworth:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Kirk:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Mark Kirk Republican Elected U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth Democratic

One-term Senator Mark Kirk (Republican) was elected with 48% of the vote in 2010. He was 57 years old in 2016. He ran for re-election. Kirk suffered a stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[190] In June 2013, he confirmed that he was planning to run for re-election,[191] but speculation he might retire persisted.[192] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election, saying: "No frickin' way am I retiring."[193]

Joe Walsh, a former U.S. Representative and conservative talk radio host, declined to challenge Kirk in the Republican primary.[194] Two others filed for the right to challenge Senator Kirk in the primary: businessman James Marter,[195] and Elizabeth Pahlke,[196] but Pahlke was disqualified, so only Marter was on the ballot running against Kirk.[197] On March 15, Kirk won the primary with 71% of the vote.[198]

U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth,[199] President and CEO of the Chicago Urban League, Andrea Zopp,[200] and State Senator Napoleon Harris ran for the Democratic nomination.[201][202] On March 15, Duckworth won the primary with 64% of the vote.[198]