2016 United States Senate election in Alabama
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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   Shelby: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90% Crumpton: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Alabama |
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 Government |
Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee.[1] Shelby won re-election with 63.96% of the vote. Despite an overwhelming victory statewide, this marks Shelby's first race as either a Republican or Democrat in which he has failed to carry Jefferson County (home of Birmingham, the state's largest city). In Jefferson, Crumpton took 51.99% (156,574 votes) to Senator Shelby's 47.86% (144,136 votes),[2] this shift is due in part to increase of Democratic support in urban core areas across the nation.
Background
Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.
Republican primary
Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015.[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former Governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.[3][4][5] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.[6]
Declared
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator[13]
- U.S. Representatives
- Organizations
- Alabama Farmers Federation[13]
- Alabama Patriots[13]
- Business Council of Alabama[14]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[13]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marcus Bowman |
John Martin |
Shadrack McGill |
Jonathan McConnell |
Richard Shelby |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) | January 29–30, 2016 | 1,299 | ± 2.7% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 25% | 55% | 16% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) | January 25–26, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 75% | 13% |
| Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) | December 2015 | – | – | 1% | 2% | 3% | 15% | 64% | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) | November 2015 | – | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 71% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Shelby |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) | January 29–30, 2016 | 1,299 | ±2.7% | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) | December 2015 | ? | ±?% | 64% | 15% | 21% |
| Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) | October 2015 | ? | ±?% | 53% | 22% | 26% |
Primary results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Richard Shelby (incumbent) | 505,586 | 64.91% | |
| Republican | Jonathan McConnell | 214,770 | 27.58% | |
| Republican | John Martin | 23,558 | 3.02% | |
| Republican | Marcus Bowman | 19,707 | 2.53% | |
| Republican | Shadrack McGill | 15,230 | 1.96% | |
| Total votes | 778,851 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Declared
Failed to qualify
- Reginald Hill, candidate for Huntsville School Board in 2012 and write-in candidate for AL-05 in 2014[18]
Declined
- Stephen Black, non-profit executive[3]
- Bobby Bright, former U.S. Representative[3]
- Parker Griffith, former U.S. Representative, and nominee for Governor of Alabama in 2014[3]
- Sue Bell Cobb, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama[3]
- Marsha Folsom, businesswoman, former First Lady of Alabama, and nominee for Alabama's 4th congressional district in 2000[19]
- Walt Maddox, Mayor of Tuscaloosa[3]
- Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[3]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Crumpton | 145,681 | 55.97% | |
| Democratic | Charles Nana | 114,617 | 44.03% | |
| Total votes | 260,298 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Richard Shelby (R), incumbent Senator
- Ron Crumpton (D), marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014
- Charles Nana (D) (write-in), process engineer[20] (previously sought the Democratic nomination)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[23] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[24] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Shelby (R) |
Ron Crumpton (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,131 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 971 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 37% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 722 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 621 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 37% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 503 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 485 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 36% | 4% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 18–20, 2016 | 474 | ± 4.2% | 71% | 26% | 3% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Richard Shelby (incumbent) | 1,335,104 | 63.96% | -1.22% | |
| Democratic | Ron Crumpton | 748,709 | 35.87% | +1.16% | |
| Write-in | 3,631 | 0.17% | +0.06% | ||
| Total votes | 2,087,444 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Jefferson (largest municipality: Birmingham)
References
- Dean, Charles (June 30, 2014). "Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to". AL.com. Retrieved July 1, 2014.
- "Alabama Election Results" (PDF). Alabama Secretary of State. June 5, 2020.
- Livingston, Abby (February 6, 2013). "Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama". Roll Call. Retrieved June 19, 2014.
- Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
- Jim Stinson (September 18, 2014). "Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election". AL.com. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- Gore, Leada (January 29, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape". AL.com. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
- Sims, Cliff (November 6, 2015). "Here's what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
- Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2015). "Alabama's Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
- Troyan, Mary (November 7, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers". Montgomery Advertiser. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
- Koplowitz, Howard (November 6, 2015). "Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby". AL.com. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
- Moseley, Brandon (December 9, 2015). "John Rice Endorses McConnell". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
- Koplowitz, Howard (January 7, 2016). "Citizens United PAC endorses Jonathan McConnell for Senate". AL.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
- "Richard Shelby Endorsements". Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2015.
- Moseley, Brandon (January 8, 2016). "BCA, Veterans Group Endorse Senator Richard Shelby for Re-Election". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on January 11, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
- "2016 Primary Election Official Results, March 1, 2016". Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved May 13, 2016.
- Moseley, Brandon (April 15, 2015). "Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
- Moseley, Brandon (November 6, 2015). "Shelby Faces Three Challengers". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
- "Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate". WAFF. November 3, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
- Charles J. Dean (June 9, 2014). "Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018". AL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- Moseley, Brandon (March 21, 2016). "Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved March 21, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- "Canvass of Results for the General Election held on November 8, 2016" (PDF). Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 1, 2016.