2016 United States Senate election in Kansas
The 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.
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  Moran: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wiesner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kansas |
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Incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran won re-election to a second term in office.
Republican primary
Declared
- Jerry Moran, incumbent Senator[1]
- D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie City Councilwoman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[2]
Declined
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Representative[3]
- Tim Huelskamp, U.S. Representative[1][4]
- Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[5][6]
- Milton Wolf, radiologist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[7][5][8][9]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran |
Dennis Pyle |
Milton Wolf |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran) | February 28 – March 3, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 73% | 9% | — | 18% |
| 70% | — | 18% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jerry Moran (Incumbent) | 230,907 | 79.09% | |
| Republican | D. J. Smith | 61,056 | 20.91% | |
| Total votes | 291,963 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Declared
Declined
- Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita[5]
- Paul Davis, former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2014[5]
- Dan Glickman, former U.S. Representative and former United States Secretary of Agriculture[13]
- Jill Docking, businesswoman, former member of the Kansas Board of Regents, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2014[13]
- Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[5]
- Joe Reardon, former Mayor of Kansas City and Wyandotte County[5]
- Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and former Governor of Kansas[14][15]
- Jim Slattery, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008[5][13]
- Margie Wakefield, attorney and nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in 2014[5]
Results
Results by county:
Singh-Bey—60–70%
Wiesner—80–90%
Wiesner—70–80%
Wiesner—60–70%
Wiesner—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Wiesner | 59,522 | 62.94% | |
| Democratic | Monique Singh-Bey | 35,042 | 37.06% | |
| Total votes | 94,564 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Declared
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Robert Garrard | 100.00% | ||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
Independent
Declined
- Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[5]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[18] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[19] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[20] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Patrick Wiesner (D) |
Robert Garrard (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,311 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 37% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,139 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | — | 4% |
| Fort Hays State University | November 1–3, 2016 | 313 | ± 3.5% | 77% | 13% | 10% | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,162 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,123 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,164 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,273 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | October 26–30, 2016 | 596 | ± 4.1% | 55% | 31% | 6% | 8% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | October 11–15, 2016 | 549 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 31% | 5% | 8% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | September 6–11, 2016 | 565 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 34% | 6% | 11% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | August 3–7, 2016 | 566 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 32% | 6% | 10% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | July 8–11, 2016 | 537 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 33% | — | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Monique Singh-Bey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Monique Singh-Bey (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSN News/SurveyUSA | July 8–11, 2016 | 537 | ± 4.3% | 54% | 30% | 15% |
- with Kathleen Sebelius
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Kathleen Sebelius (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,328 | ± 2.7% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jerry Moran (incumbent) | 732,376 | 62.18% | -7.91% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Wiesner | 379,740 | 32.24% | +5.86% | |
| Libertarian | Robert D. Garrard | 65,760 | 5.58% | +3.44% | |
| Independent | DJ Smith (write-in) | 46 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,177,922 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
References
- Alexis Levinson (November 19, 2014). "Huelskamp Open to Moran Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 21, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
- Wingerter, Justin (June 2, 2016). "Rep. Lynn Jenkins drops a challenger, Sen. Jerry Moran gains one at the filing deadline". Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
- Clarkin, Mary (April 5, 2016). "Pompeo doesn't rule out a Senate race while criticizing Moran". Hays Daily News. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
- Alexis Levinson (January 8, 2015). "Congressman Says Wife Nixed Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 8, 2015. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
- Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
- Clarkin, Mary (April 27, 2015). "Ex-Congressman Tiahrt bound for D.C. lobbying firm". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
- Alexis Levinson (July 29, 2014). "In Kansas, Conservatives Suffer From Mississippi Hangover". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 4, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
- Wingerter, Justin (November 3, 2015). "Prospective 2016 U.S. Senate contender Milton Wolf tries to terminate his campaign committee". The Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved November 11, 2015.
- Kraske, Steve (February 19, 2016). "Milton Wolf hints, but won't commit, to another race this year for the U.S. Senate from Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
- "2016 Official Primary Results". Kansas Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
- Clarkin, Mary (February 4, 2016). "Democrat Patrick Wiesner files for Jerry Moran's Senate seat". The Hutchinson News. Archived from the original on October 3, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
- Mason, Tori (December 1, 2015). "Topeka native announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". WIBW. Archived from the original on March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
- Helling, Dave (November 12, 2015). "Kansas Democrats see an opening but fear they can't take advantage". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
- Sullivan, Sean (April 11, 2014). "Why Kathleen Sebelius's political career is (probably) over". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
- Kraske, Steve (January 20, 2015). "Kathleen Sebelius criticizes Gov. Sam Brownback's vision for Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- "2016 General Election Official Results" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
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