2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought re-election to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 6 percent. He has declined to seek re-election in 2024 and is instead running for Governor that year.

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2018 Indiana State Senate election.

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Turnout50.42% Decrease
 
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,161,546 1,025,178
Percentage 50.77% 44.81%
Braun:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican

Elections in Indiana
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In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3]

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Withdrew
  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements
Joe Donnelly
47th Vice President of the United States
United States Senator
Organization

Results
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100.00%
Total votes 284,621 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements
Mike Braun
U.S. Senators
State Senators
State Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Luke Messer
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Todd Rokita
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Luke
Messer		 Todd
Rokita		 Mike
Braun		 Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% 44% – –
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% 26% – 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% 24% 9% – 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% 28% – – 51%
14% 21% 11% – 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) Archived August 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results
Results by county:
  Braun
  •   80–90%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
  Rokita
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  Messer
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 29.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.84%
Total votes 506,700 100.00%

Independent

Declared
  • James Johnson, Jr.[60]

General election

Candidates
  • Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
  • Lucy Brenton (L)
  • Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
  • James Johnson, Jr. (I)

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[64] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[67] Tossup November 5, 2018

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[68]

Endorsements
Mike Braun (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Senators
State Representatives
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Joe Donnelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Organizations
  • Indiana Chamber of Commerce[129]
Newspapers

Polling
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Mike
Braun (R)		 Lucy
Brenton (L)		 Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 41% – – –
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43% – – –
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43% – – –
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX Archived November 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42% – – –
NBC News/Marist October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
48% 46% – 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
47% 45% – 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% 49% – 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 3% – 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 – 40% 44% 7% – 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% 41% 40% 8% – 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% 44% 40% 7% – 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 55% 45% – – –
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 – 40% 44% 7% – 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 – 39% 43% 7% – 5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
NBC News/Marist August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
49% 43% – 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
48% 42% – 2% 9%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% 51% 39% – – 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% 49% – – 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 47% – – 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Todd Rokita
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Todd
Rokita (R)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% 50% 32% 18%
with Luke Messer
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Luke
Messer (R)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% 46% 36% 18%
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,809 ± 3.8% 45% 51% 4%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[132] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.[133]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[134]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Braun 1,161,546 50.77% +6.45%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,025,178 44.81% -5.20%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 101,153 4.42% -1.26%
Write-in 70 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,287,947 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts, with Donnelly winning the other 3, including one held by a Republican.

District Braun Donnelly Elected
Representative
1st 37.9% 60.6% Pete Visclosky
2nd 51.0% 45.5% Jackie Walorski
3rd 59.6% 36.7% Jim Banks
4th 57.9% 37.4% Jim Baird
5th 47.9% 48.4% Susan Brooks
6th 60.8% 34.3% Greg Pence
7th 31.8% 64.5% André Carson
8th 57.3% 38.4% Larry Bucshon
9th 54.3% 41.5% Trey Hollingsworth

Voter Demographics
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Donnelly Braun No
Answer		  % of
Voters
Gender
Men 40 57 3 49
Women 49 46 5 51
Age
18–29 years old 48 45 7 13
30–44 years old 49 43 8 20
45–64 years old 44 54 3 39
65 and older 41 57 1 28
Race
White 40 56 4 86
Black 88 11 1 8
Latino 71 22 6 3
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 35 62 3 42
White women 44 51 5 44
Black men 82 15 2 4
Black women 95 5 0 4
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1
Latina women N/A N/A N/A 2
Others N/A N/A N/A 2
Education
High school or less 40 56 4 23
Some college education 40 54 6 26
Associate degree 41 55 4 13
Bachelor's degree 46 51 3 22
Advanced degree 61 36 2 16
Education and race
White college graduates 49 48 3 34
White no college degree 33 62 5 53
Non-white college graduates 80 19 2 4
Non-white no college degree 76 20 4 10
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 57 39 4 17
White women without college degrees 36 59 6 27
White men with college degrees 41 57 2 17
White men without college degrees 31 65 4 26
Non-whites 77 20 3 14
Income
Under $30,000 49 44 8 15
$30,000–49,999 46 49 4 23
$50,000–99,999 44 55 2 35
$100,000–199,999 44 52 4 22
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 5
Party ID
Democrats 92 6 2 29
Republicans 8 90 2 39
Independents 47 44 9 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 92 6 2 12
Democratic women 93 5 2 18
Republican men 8 91 1 19
Republican women 8 90 2 20
Independent men 42 52 7 18
Independent women 55 33 12 13
Ideology
Liberals 86 8 6 20
Moderates 59 37 5 40
Conservatives 10 88 2 40
Marital status
Married 43 54 3 61
Unmarried 51 46 3 39
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 60 2 31
Married women 48 49 3 30
Unmarried men 42 53 5 19
Unmarried women 61 39 1 20
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 41 53 6 15
No 46 51 3 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 70 26 4 41
Immigration 10 85 5 27
Economy 31 66 3 21
Gun policy 66 31 3 8
Area type
Urban 63 33 4 31
Suburban 44 53 3 44
Rural 37 58 5 25
Source: CNN[135]

Notes
  1. Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References
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  99. Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
  100. Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
  101. Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
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  105. Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
  106. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
  107. Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
  108. Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
  109. Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
  110. Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
  111. Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
  112. "Kamala Harris makes fundraising pitch for Joe Donnelly". Associated Press. October 4, 2018.
  113. Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
  114. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
  115. Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
  116. John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
  117. "Thomas McDermott on Twitter".
  118. "Victor Oladipo on Twitter".
  119. "Kevin Rader on Twitter". Twitter.
  120. "Amy Schumer on Twitter".
  121. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  122. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks Derrick Mayes for your support! Hoosiers, please make your plan to vote!". Twitter.
  123. "Retiree Group Endorses Sen. Joe Donnelly for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. October 9, 2018. Archived from the original on October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  124. "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  125. "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org.
  126. "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
  127. "Indiana – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  128. Joe Donnelly. ""America needs more senators like Joe Donnelly. Indiana needs to re-elect him." Thank you, @JGfortwayne!". Twitter.
  129. "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". Associated Press. September 1, 2018.
  130. "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Joe Donnelly deserves re-election to U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  131. "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Mike Braun is right choice for U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  132. "Indiana Election Results". CNN. November 9, 2018.
  133. Lange, Kaitlin. "Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
  134. "Indiana Election Results". in.gov/sos/elections/index.htm. Archived from the original on May 6, 2019. Retrieved November 19, 2018.
  135. "Georgia Gubernatorial election exit poll". CNN. Archived from the original on January 5, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2019.
Official campaign websites
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