2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia
The 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020, and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class II member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in the runoff election. The general election was held concurrently with the 2020 presidential election, as well as with other elections to the Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Turnout | 65.4% (first round) 61.5% (runoff) | |||||||||||||||
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Perdue: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ossoff: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Georgia |
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No candidate received a majority of the vote during the general election on November 3, so the top two finishers—Perdue (49.7%) and Ossoff (47.9%)—advanced to a runoff election, held on January 5, 2021. The runoff was held concurrently with the special election for Georgia's other U.S. Senate seat (which had also advanced to a runoff), in which Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler lost to Democratic nominee Raphael Warnock. After the general round of elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). As a result, the two runoffs decided control of the Senate under the incoming Biden administration. By winning both seats, Democrats took control of the chamber, with Vice President Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote giving them an effective majority. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally. On January 6, 2021, most major news outlets projected Ossoff the winner, in the midst of the US Capitol riot.[1][2] Perdue conceded the race on January 8.[3][4] According to OpenSecrets, this campaign was the most expensive in U.S. Senate history, with over $468 million spent.[5] Ossoff's victory, along with Warnock's, gave the Democrats control of the Senate for the first time since 2015. Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election.
Ossoff became the first Democrat elected to a full term in the Senate from Georgia since Max Cleland, who held this seat from 1997 to 2003, and the first Jewish member of the Senate from the state.[6] Ossoff became the youngest senator since Don Nickles won in 1980, and the youngest Democrat since Joe Biden won in 1972. Georgia election officials certified Ossoff's victory on January 19, 2021; he was sworn in on January 20.[7] Ossoff is the first Jewish senator from the Deep South since Benjamin F. Jonas of Louisiana, who was elected in 1878, and the first millennial United States senator. The two elections mark the first time since the 1994 United States Senate election in Tennessee and the concurrent special election that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle. This was also the first time the Democrats achieved this since West Virginia's 1958 Senate elections. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was also the closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle.
Republican primary
Nominee
- David Perdue, incumbent U.S. Senator[8]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Derrick Grayson, activist and U.S. Senate candidate in 2014 and 2016.[11] (ran in the special election).[12]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Perdue (incumbent) | 992,555 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 992,555 | 100.00% |
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Jon Ossoff, investigative journalist, media executive, nominee for Georgia's 6th congressional district in 2017[14]
Eliminated in primary
- Teresa Tomlinson, former mayor of Columbus[15][16]
- Sarah Riggs Amico, nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia in 2018[17]
- Marckeith DeJesus, candidate for Georgia State Senate in 2017 and candidate for Georgia House of Representatives in 2016[18]
- Maya Dillard-Smith, former two-term Senate Appointee Judge over judicial performance and Rules Committee Chair[19]
- James Knox, retired U.S. Air Force officer[20]
- Tricia Carpenter McCracken, journalist and nominee for Georgia's 12th congressional district in 2016[20]
Withdrew
Declined
- Stacey Abrams, nominee for governor of Georgia in 2018 and former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives[22][23] (endorsed Ossoff)
- Jason Carter, grandson of former Georgia Governor and President Jimmy Carter, former state senator, and nominee for governor of Georgia in 2014 (endorsed Tomlinson)[24][25][26]
- Stacey Evans, former state representative and candidate for governor of Georgia in 2018 (running for state house)[27]
- Scott Holcomb, state representative[8]
- Jen Jordan, state senator[28]
- Michelle Nunn, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014[24][29]
- Kasim Reed, former mayor of Atlanta[30][31]
- Doug Teper, former state representative[24]
- Sally Yates, former United States Deputy Attorney General[32]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sarah Riggs Amico |
Jon Ossoff |
Teresa Tomlinson |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark Communications | June 1, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 9% | 42% | 14% | 7%[lower-alpha 1] | 28% |
Cygnal (R) | May 28–30, 2020 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 8% | 49% | 16% | 4%[lower-alpha 2] | 24% |
The Progress Campaign (D) | May 6–15, 2020 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 9% | 46% | 29% | – | 16%[lower-alpha 3] |
The Progress Campaign (D) | March 12–21, 2020 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 34% | 21% | 27%[lower-alpha 4] | – |
University of Georgia | March 4–14, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 15% | 31% | 16% | – | 39% |
Head-to-head polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Ossoff |
Teresa Tomlinson |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) | May 28–30, 2020 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Hank Johnson, U.S. Representative for GA-04[33]
- John Lewis, U.S. Representative for GA-05[34] (deceased)
- State officials
- Debra Bazemore, state representative[35]
- Sharon Beasley-Teague, state representative[35]
- Karen Bennett, state representative[35]
- Rhonda Burnough, state representative[35]
- Doreen Carter, state representative[35]
- Steve Henson, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[36]
- Shelly Hutchinson, state representative[35]
- Derrick Jackson, state representative[35]
- Donzella James, state senator[35]
- Emanuel Jones, state senator (previously endorsed Teresa Tomlinson)[37]
- Sheila Jones, state representative[35]
- Josh McLaurin, state representative[38]
- Miriam Paris, state representative and former State Senator[35]
- Doc Rhett, state senator[35]
- Kim Schofield, state representative[35]
- Erica Thomas, state representative[35]
- Local officials
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Alex Hirsch, writer, artist, and animator[41]
- Federal officials
- Max Cleland, former U.S. senator (GA) (1997–2003), former Secretary of State of Georgia (1983–1996), former Administrator of Veterans Affairs (1977–1981), and former Secretary of the American Battle Monuments Commission (2009–2017)[42]
- Buddy Darden, former U.S. representative for GA-07 (1983–1995)[42]
- Gordon Giffin, former United States Ambassador to Canada (1997–2001)[42]
- Andrew Young, former mayor of Atlanta (1982–1990), former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (1977–1979), and U.S. representative for GA-05 (1973–1977)[43]
- State officials
- Roy Barnes, former governor of Georgia (1999–2003)[42]
- Debbie Buckner, state representative
- Gail Buckner, former state senator, former state representative, and Democratic nominee in 2006 Georgia Secretary of State election[42]
- Jason Carter, former state senator, Democratic nominee in 2014 Georgia governor's election, and grandson of the 39th President of the United States and former Governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter[42]
- J. Craig Gordon, state representative[42]
- Carolyn Hugley, state representative[42]
- Lester G. Jackson, state senator[42]
- Harold V. Jones II, state senator[42]
- Mary Margaret Oliver, state representative and former state senator[42]
- Leah Ward Sears, former associate justice of the Georgia Supreme Court (1992–2005) and former chief justice (2005–2009)[42]
- Freddie Powell Sims, State Senator and former state representative[42]
- Local officials
- Hardie Davis, mayor of Augusta[42]
- Kelly Girtz, mayor of Athens-Clarke County[42]
- Ceasar Mitchell, former president of the Atlanta City Council[42]
- Felicia Moore, president of the Atlanta City Council[36]
- Individuals
- Hank Aaron, retired right-fielder for the Atlanta Braves[42]
- Lil Yachty, Atlanta rapper, singer and songwriter
- Organizations
Results
Almost four times as many Georgia voters participated in the 2020 Democratic Senate primary as in the 2016 primary, when only 310,053 votes were cast.[48]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Ossoff | 626,819 | 52.82% | |
Democratic | Teresa Tomlinson | 187,416 | 15.79% | |
Democratic | Sarah Riggs Amico | 139,574 | 11.76% | |
Democratic | Maya Dillard-Smith | 105,000 | 8.85% | |
Democratic | James Knox | 49,452 | 4.17% | |
Democratic | Marckeith DeJesus | 45,936 | 3.87% | |
Democratic | Tricia Carpenter McCracken | 32,463 | 2.74% | |
Total votes | 1,186,660 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Nominee
- Shane Hazel, former U.S. Marine, podcaster, and Republican candidate for Georgia's 7th congressional district in 2018[50]
Withdrawn
- Elbert "Al" Bartell, perennial candidate (running as an independent candidate in the 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia)[51][52]
- Allen Buckley, Libertarian candidate for the 2016 United States Senate election in Georgia[9] (running as an independent candidate in the 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia)[53]
- Tom Jones[54][53]
- Clifton Kilby[55][10][53]
- Darrell McGuire (as a write-in candidate), retired Georgia State Trooper[56][52]
- Valencia Stovall, Georgian Democratic state representative from District 74 since 2013[9] (running as an independent candidate in the 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia)[53]
General Election
Debates
The first debate between Hazel, Ossoff, and Perdue occurred virtually[57] on October 12.[58]
A second debate between Ossoff and Perdue, held on October 28[lower-alpha 5] in Savannah and aired on television station WTOC-TV,[59] was more heated and made national headlines, with Ossoff saying that Perdue had claimed "COVID-19 was no deadlier than the flu", was "looking after [his] own assets, and ... portfolio", and that Perdue voted "four times to end protections for preexisting conditions".[60] Ossoff also called Perdue a "crook" and criticized him for "attacking the health of the people that [he] represent[s]".[61] Perdue said Ossoff will "say and do anything to my friends in Georgia to mislead them about how radical and socialist" his agenda is.[62] Video of the exchange went viral.[57][61]
The next day, October 29, Perdue said he would not attend the third and final debate, previously scheduled to be broadcast on WSB-TV on November 1; instead Perdue decided to attend a rally with President Trump in Rome on the same day[63]—"as lovely as another debate listening to Jon Ossoff lie to the people of Georgia sounds",[62] according to a Perdue spokesman.
On December 6, Ossoff debated an empty podium as Perdue declined to participate in a Georgia Public Broadcasting-held debate.[64] Ossoff criticized Perdue's absence, accusing him of skipping the event because of the negative response to his performance in the October debates.
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
DDHQ[65] | Tossup | November 3, 2020 |
FiveThirtyEight[66] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[67] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[69] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
The Cook Political Report[70] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
Economist[71] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[72] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[73] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
Endorsements
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[74]
- U.S. senators
- Saxby Chambliss, U.S. senator from Georgia (2003–2015)[75]
- Johnny Isakson, U.S. senator from Georgia (2005–2019)[75]
- Mack Mattingly, U.S. senator from Georgia (1981–1987)[75]
- Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[76]
- State officials
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[77]
- John F. King, Georgia Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner and former Doraville chief of police[76]
- Brad Raffensperger, Secretary of State of Georgia (2019–present)[78]
- Organizations
- Campaign for Working Families[79]
- Council for Citizens Against Government Waste Political Action Committee (CCAGW PAC)[80]
- Georgia Chamber of Commerce[79]
- Huck PAC[79]
- National Federation of Independent Business[76]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[81][79]
- National Right to Life Committee[79]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[79]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[79]
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[82]
- Joe Biden, president-elect of the United States, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[83]
- Kamala Harris, vice president-elect of the United States, U.S. senator from California (2017–2021)[84]
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013), U.S. Senator from New York (2001–2009), first lady of the United States (1993–2001) and 2016 Democratic nominee for president.[85]
- U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[86]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. senator from Nevada (2017–present)[87]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota, 2020 Candidate for President (2007-present)[88]
- U.S. representatives
- Hank Johnson, U.S. representative for GA-04[33]
- John Lewis, former U.S. representative for GA-05[34] (Deceased)
- State legislators
- Stacey Abrams, nominee for governor of Georgia in 2018 and former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives[89]
- State officials
- Debra Bazemore, state representative[35]
- Sharon Beasley-Teague, state representative[35]
- Karen Bennett, state representative[35]
- Rhonda Burnough, state representative[35]
- Doreen Carter, state representative[35]
- Steve Henson, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[36]
- Shelly Hutchinson, state representative[35]
- Derrick Jackson, state representative[35]
- Donzella James, state senator[35]
- Emanuel Jones, state senator (previously endorsed Teresa Tomlinson)[37]
- Sheila Jones, state representative[35]
- Josh McLaurin, state representative[38]
- Miriam Paris, state representative and former state senator (2011–2013)[35]
- Doc Rhett, state senator[35]
- Kim Schofield, state representative[35]
- Erica Thomas, state representative[35]
- Local officials
- Ted Terry, mayor of Clarkston and former 2020 U.S. Senate candidate[39]
- Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend (2012–2020), 2020 Candidate for President[90]
- Organizations
- Black Economic Alliance[91]
- Center for Biological Diversity[92]
- Council for a Livable World[93]
- End Citizens United[40]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[94]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[95]
- J Street PAC[96]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[97]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[98]
- League of Conservation Voters[99]
- Let America Vote[40]
- NARAL[100]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[101]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[102][103]
- Sierra Club[104]
- Climate Hawks Vote[105]
- Unions
- Individuals
- Amy Acker, actress[109]
- Patrick J. Adams, actor[109]
- Usman Ally, actor[110]
- Ed Asner, actor[111]
- Dan Bakkedahl, actor[110]
- Troian Bellisario, actress[109]
- Sufe Bradshaw, actress[110]
- Don Cheadle, actor[110]
- Anna Chlumsky, actress[110]
- Stephen Colbert, actor and comedian[110]
- Gary Cole, actor[110]
- David Costabile, actor[109]
- Bryan Cranston, actor[110]
- Denise Crosby, actress[109]
- Zooey Deschanel, actress[111]
- Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, actress[110]
- Kevin Dunn, actor[110]
- Clea DuVall, actress[110]
- Billie Eilish, singer[112]
- Beanie Feldstein, actress[110]
- Will Ferrell, actor[111]
- Nelson Franklin, actor[110]
- Tony Hale, actor[110]
- Mark Hamill, actor[110]
- Rachael Harris, actress[109]
- Ed Helms, actor and comedian[111]
- Alex Hirsch, writer, artist, and animator[41]
- Rick Hoffman, actor[109]
- Aaron Korsh, writer and producer[109]
- Lisa Ling, journalist and author[113]
- John Lithgow, actor[111]
- Gabriel Macht, actor[109]
- Rory O'Malley, actor[113]
- David Mandel, writer and director[110]
- Kumail Nanjiani, actor[110]
- Bob Newhart, actor[111]
- Matt Oberg, actor[110]
- Patton Oswalt, actor and comedian[110]
- Lennon Parham, actress[110]
- David Pasquesi, actor[110]
- Jordan Peele, actor, director and comedian[113]
- Sarah Rafferty, actress[109]
- Anthony Rapp, actor[113]
- Sam Richardson, actor[110]
- Andy Richter, actor and comedian[111]
- Paul Scheer, actor[110]
- Amanda Schull, actress[109]
- Reid Scott, actor[110]
- Amy Sedaris, actress[111]
- Timothy Simons, actor[110]
- Mary Steenburgen, actress[111]
- Sarah Sutherland, actress[110]
- Max Topplin, actor[109]
- Gina Torres, actress[109]
- Matt Walsh, actor[110]
- Kerry Washington, actress[113]
- D. B. Woodside, actor[109]
- Bowen Yang, actor and comedian[113]
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
David Perdue Republican |
Jon Ossoff Democratic |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 6] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 To Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.2% | 47.4% | 6.4% | Ossoff +1.2 |
Real Clear Politics | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.3% | 47.0% | 6.7% | Ossoff +0.7 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Jon Ossoff (D) |
Shane Hazel (L) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark Communications | November 1, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | 3% | 1%[lower-alpha 8] |
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 407 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 49% | 48% | 3% | – |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3% | 46% | 51% | 3% | 0%[lower-alpha 9] |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49%[lower-alpha 10] | 51% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 11] |
Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,743 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – |
Landmark Communications | October 28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] |
Public Policy Polling | October 27–28, 2020 | 661 (V) | – | 44% | 47% | 3% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] |
Monmouth University | October 23–27, 2020 | 504 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 14] |
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 15] | 47% | 49% | – | – | |||
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 16] | 48% | 49% | – | – | |||
Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 342 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 49% | 48% | 3% | – |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 23–26, 2020 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 51% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 17] |
YouGov/CBS | October 20–23, 2020 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 18] |
University of Georgia | October 14–23, 2020 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 46% | 4% | 5%[lower-alpha 19] |
Landmark Communications | October 21, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 45% | – | – |
Citizen Data | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 41% | 47% | – | 12%[lower-alpha 20] |
Morning Consult | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,672 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 46% | 44% | – | – |
Emerson College | October 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9%[lower-alpha 21] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 13–19, 2020 | 759 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10%[lower-alpha 22] |
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 1] | October 12–15, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45%[lower-alpha 10] | 45% | – | 8%[lower-alpha 23] |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] | October 11–14, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 6% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] |
Quinnipiac University | October 8–12, 2020 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 51% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 24] |
SurveyUSA | October 8–12, 2020 | 677 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 43% | – | 11%[lower-alpha 25] |
Data for Progress | October 8–11, 2020 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 44% | 1% | 10% |
Morning Consult | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,837 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 46% | 42% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–9, 2020 | 528 (V) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 44% | 4% | 9%[lower-alpha 26] |
Landmark Communications | October 7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] |
University of Georgia | September 27 – October 6, 2020 | 1,106 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 41% | 3% | 7%[lower-alpha 27] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | September 26–29, 2020 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 3% | 3%[lower-alpha 28] |
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 3] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 46% | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | September 23–27, 2020 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 49% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 29] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 23–26, 2020 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.49% | 42% | 47% | – | 12%[lower-alpha 30] |
YouGov/CBS | September 22–25, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 42% | – | 10%[lower-alpha 31] |
Monmouth University | September 17–21, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 42% | 4% | 6%[lower-alpha 32] |
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 15] | 48% | 43% | 3% | 5%[lower-alpha 19] | |||
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 16] | 50% | 42% | 2% | 4%[lower-alpha 33] | |||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 16–21, 2020 | 523 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 38% | 5% | 16%[lower-alpha 34] |
University of Georgia | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,150 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 45% | 4% | 5%[lower-alpha 19] |
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,406 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 43%[lower-alpha 35] | 44% | – | – |
Data For Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | 2% | 14%[lower-alpha 36] |
Morning Consult | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,402 (LV)[lower-alpha 37] | ± (2% – 4%) | 43% | 43% | – | – |
GBAO Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 4] | September 14–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–16, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 43% | – | 14%[lower-alpha 38] |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 5] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 39] |
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 1] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45%[lower-alpha 10] | 44% | – | 11%[lower-alpha 40] |
HarrisX (D)[upper-alpha 6] | August 20–30, 2020 | 1,616 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 40% | 8% | 4%[lower-alpha 41] |
Public Policy Polling | August 13–14, 2020 | 530 (V) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 44% | – | 11%[lower-alpha 42] |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | August 10–13, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
SurveyUSA | August 6–8, 2020 | 623 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 44% | 41% | – | 14%[lower-alpha 43] |
YouGov/CBS | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 43% | – | 13%[lower-alpha 44] |
HIT Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 7] | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 42% | – | 19%[lower-alpha 45] |
Monmouth University | July 23–27, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 43% | 1% | 7%[lower-alpha 27] |
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 15] | 50% | 43% | 1% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] | |||
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 16] | 51% | 43% | 1% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] | |||
Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,337 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 12% |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 8] | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | – | 10%[lower-alpha 46] |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | July 9–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] | July 2, 2020 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
Fox News | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,013 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 13%[lower-alpha 47] |
Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2020 | 661 (V) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 16–18, 2020 | 1,339 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 47% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 48] |
The Progress Campaign (D)[114] | May 6–15, 2020 | 2,893 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
BK Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 10] | May 11–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 8%[lower-alpha 49] |
Cygnal (R)[115][upper-alpha 11] | April 25–27, 2020 | 591 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | – | 16% |
The Progress Campaign (D) | March 12–21, 2020 | 3,042 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 39% | 40% | – | 20% |
- with Teresa Tomlinson
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Teresa Tomlinson (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 16–18 | 1,339 (RV) | ±3.1% | 45% | 44% | 10%[lower-alpha 50] |
The Progress Campaign (D)[114] | May 6–15 | 2,893 (LV) | ± 2% | 41% | 40% | 19% |
The Progress Campaign (D) | March 12–21 | 3,042 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
- with Sarah Riggs Amico
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Sarah Riggs Amico (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 16–18 | 1,339 (RV) | ±3.1% | 45% | 42% | 13%[lower-alpha 51] |
- with Stacey Abrams
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Stacey Abrams (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Progress Campaign (D) | March 12–21 | 3,042 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 46% | 12% |
- with Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | November 15–18, 2019 | 1,303 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 37% | 23% |
University of Georgia | October 28–30, 2019 | 1,028 (RV) | – | 35.1% | 21.1% | 43.8% |
- with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 12] | March 17–19, 2019 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Results
No candidate received a majority of the vote on November 3, so the top two finishers—incumbent Republican senator David Perdue (49.7%) and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff (47.9%)—advanced to a runoff election held on January 5, 2021.[116][117]
Voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected were allowed to submit corrections until 5pm on November 6.[118][119]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Perdue (incumbent) | 2,462,617 | 49.73% | −3.16% | |
Democratic | Jon Ossoff | 2,374,519 | 47.95% | +2.74% | |
Libertarian | Shane T. Hazel | 115,039 | 2.32% | +0.42% | |
Total votes | 4,952,175 | 100.0% |
Results by congressional district
Perdue won 8 of 14 congressional districts in the general election.[121]
District | Ossoff | Perdue | Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 42.08% | 55.5% | Buddy Carter |
2nd | 54.33% | 43.88% | Sanford Bishop |
3rd | 35.53% | 62.21% | Drew Ferguson |
4th | 77.77% | 20.11% | Hank Johnson |
5th | 84.08% | 13.76% | Nikema Williams |
6th | 51.32% | 46.4% | Lucy McBath |
7th | 50.55% | 46.78% | Carolyn Bourdeaux |
8th | 35.65% | 62.3% | Austin Scott |
9th | 21.19% | 76.29% | Andrew Clyde |
10th | 37.69% | 60.04% | Jody Hice |
11th | 39.42% | 57.87% | Barry Loudermilk |
12th | 41.72% | 56.12% | Rick W. Allen |
13th | 74.64% | 23.13% | David Scott |
14th | 24.65% | 72.66% | Marjorie Taylor Greene |
Runoff
The runoff election between Perdue and Ossoff was on January 5, 2021,[122] alongside the special election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler.
Following the 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus 48.[123] Since Democrats won both Georgia runoffs, their caucus gained control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie is broken by Democratic vice president Kamala Harris. If the Democrats had lost either race, Republicans would have retained control of the Senate.[124] The high political stakes caused the races to attract significant nationwide attention.[125][126][127] These elections are the third and fourth Senate runoff elections to be held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, following runoffs in 1992 and 2008.[128] It is also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[129]
The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7, 2020. Absentee ballots for the runoff election were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[130][131] Ossoff's runoff campaign largely focused around accusing Perdue of corruption as well as aggressively courting Black voters in an attempt to drive up turnout, while Perdue characterised Ossoff as a socialist and accused him of having ties to the People's Republic of China.[132] Perdue's campaign was hampered by his refusal to state that Joe Biden had won that year's presidential election, which made it exceedingly difficult for him to argue that an Ossoff victory would create a Democratic trifecta.[133]
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[134] | Tossup | January 4, 2021 |
Inside Elections[135] | Tossup | December 14, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] | Tossup | January 5, 2021 |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
David Perdue Republican |
Jon Ossoff Democratic |
Undecided [lower-alpha 6] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 To Win | Dec 30, 2020 – January 4, 2021 | January 4, 2021 | 47.4% | 50.2% | 2.4% | Ossoff +2.8 |
RealClearPolitics | Dec 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021 | January 5, 2021 | 48.8% | 49.3% | 1.9% | Ossoff +0.5 |
538 | Nov 9, 2020 – January 4, 2021 | January 5, 2021 | 47.4% | 49.1% | 3.5% | Ossoff +1.8 |
Average | 47.9% | 49.5% | 2.6% | Ossoff +1.7 |
This section also contains pre-runoff polls excluding all candidates except head-to-head matchups.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
David Perdue (R) |
Jon Ossoff (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group | January 2–4, 2021 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
AtlasIntel | January 2–4, 2021 | 857 (LV) | ± 3% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
InsiderAdvantage Archived January 4, 2021, at the Wayback Machine | January 3, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48.7% | 48.6% | 2.7% |
National Research Inc | January 2–3, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School | December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 | 550 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
Targoz Market Research | December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | 0% |
1,342 (RV) | 47% | 51% | 2% | |||
AtlasIntel | December 25, 2020 – January 1, 2021 | 1,680 (LV) | ± 2% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
Gravis Marketing | December 29–30, 2020 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
JMC Analytics and Polling | December 28–29, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
Trafalgar Group | December 23–27, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
Open Model Project | December 21–27, 2020 | 1,405 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
InsiderAdvantage Archived December 25, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | December 21–22, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
Mellman Group | December 18–22, 2020 | 578 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | December 14–22, 2020 | 1,027 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
SurveyUSA | December 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 46% | 51% | 3% |
Trafalgar Group | December 14–16, 2020 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
Emerson College | December 14–16, 2020 | 605 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage Archived December 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | December 14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
Wick Archived December 18, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | December 10–14, 2020 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | 2% |
RMG Research Archived December 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | December 8–14, 2020 | 1,417 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll | December 4–11, 2020 | 1,008 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
Trafalgar Group | December 8–10, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | November 30 – December 4, 2020 | 1,250 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Trafalgar Group | December 1–3, 2020 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
SurveyUSA | November 27–30, 2020 | 583 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
RMG Research Archived December 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | November 19–24, 2020 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Data For Progress (D) | November 15–20, 2020 | 1,476 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 48% | 3% |
InsiderAdvantage Archived November 18, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | November 16, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
Remington Research Group | November 8–9, 2020 | 1,450 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] | October 11–14, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 45% | 50% | 5% |
Data For Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
- with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived January 28, 2021, at the Wayback Machine | December 8–14, 2020 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 46%[lower-alpha 52] | 42% | 11%[lower-alpha 53] |
Quinnipiac University | September 23–27, 2020 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
Results
Ossoff won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Ossoff | 2,269,923 | 50.61% | N/A | |
Republican | David Perdue | 2,214,979 | 49.39% | N/A | |
Total votes | 4,484,902 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results by congressional district
Despite losing the statewide runoff, Perdue held onto the 8 congressional districts he had previously won in the general election.[139]
District | Ossoff | Perdue | Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 44.27% | 55.73% | Buddy Carter |
2nd | 57.13% | 42.87% | Sanford Bishop |
3rd | 37.7% | 62.3% | Drew Ferguson |
4th | 81.06% | 18.94% | Hank Johnson |
5th | 86.71% | 13.29% | Nikema Williams |
6th | 52.59% | 47.41% | Lucy McBath |
7th | 53.41% | 46.59% | Carolyn Bourdeaux |
8th | 37.74% | 62.26% | Austin Scott |
9th | 22.57% | 77.43% | Andrew Clyde |
10th | 40.01% | 59.99% | Jody Hice |
11th | 41.22% | 58.78% | Barry Loudermilk |
12th | 43.92% | 56.08% | Rick W. Allen |
13th | 78.21% | 21.79% | David Scott |
14th | 26.39% | 73.61% | Marjorie Taylor Greene |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates.
- Poll sponsored by Ossoff's campaign.
- Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which endorsed Biden before this poll's sampling period.
- Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign for the 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia.
- Poll sponsored by AARP.
- Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign.
- This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates.
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right political talkshow.
- This poll was sponsored by the Republican State Leadership Committee.
- Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus.
- Poll sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- "Another candidate" with 7.2%
- Knox with 1.5%; DeJesus and Smith with 1%; McCracken with 0.3%
- Listed as "other/undecided"
- Includes undecided
- Initially scheduled for October 19.[57]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Undecided with 1%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 6%
- "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 5%
- "Other" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
- "Someone else" and did/would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 9%
- Undecided with 7%
- "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- Undecided with 14%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 9%
- Would not vote with 4%
- Undecided with 11%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 10%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- "Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 14%
- "Another candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 3%
- "Undecided" with 8%
- "Someone else" with 6%; Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" with 8%; Undecided with 5%
- "It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
- "It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%
References
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- Cathey, Libby; et al. (January 6, 2021). "ABC News projects Ossoff victory over Perdue". ABC News. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved January 6, 2021.
- Bluestein, Greg. "David Perdue concedes to Jon Ossoff, ending Georgia Senate runoffs". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
- "GOP's David Perdue concedes to Jon Ossoff in Georgia runoff". AP NEWS. January 8, 2021. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
- Evers-Hillstrom, Karl (January 4, 2021). "Georgia Senate races shatter spending records". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on January 7, 2021.
- Stuart, Tessa (January 6, 2021). "Warnock Makes History and Democrats Gain Senate Majority". Rolling Stone. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
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- Burns, Alexander (April 3, 2019). "Stacey Abrams Will Not Run for Senate in 2020". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 30, 2019. Retrieved April 30, 2019.
- Bluestein, Greg (May 1, 2019). "BREAKING: Stacey Abrams won't run for US Senate in Georgia". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2019.
- Hallerman, Tamar; Bluestein, Greg (April 30, 2019). "Updated: Who could challenge Sen. David Perdue in 2020". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2019.
- Galloway, Jim (December 28, 2018). "The question for Georgia Democrats in 2019: WWAD?". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Naomi Lim (January 25, 2020). "Jimmy Carter grandson declines Georgia Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved January 25, 2020.
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Further reading
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com
External links
- "Georgia 2020 Purge List", SaveMyVote2020.org, Los Angeles, CA: Palast Investigative Fund,
Check if you have been purged from the Georgia voter rolls
- "League of Women Voters of Georgia". January 5, 2018. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Elections Archived November 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at the Georgia Secretary of State official website
- Georgia at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Georgia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Georgia 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets
- Request a mail-in ballot at the Georgia Secretary of State website
- Check to see if you are registered to vote Archived November 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine at the Georgia Secretary of State website
- Register to vote at Vote.org
- Official campaign websites