2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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| Turnout | 75.77% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Iowa |
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Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.
This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha urban area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.
Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.
Caucuses
The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[4]
Republican caucuses
Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[5]
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
- Trump—100%
- Trump—≥95%
- Trump—90–95%
- Trump—85–90%
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
- Trump—≥95%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 31,421 | 97.14 | 39 |
| Bill Weld | 425 | 1.31 | 1 |
| Joe Walsh | 348 | 1.08 | 0 |
| Other | 151 | 0.47 | 0 |
| Total | 32,345 | 100% | 40 |
Democratic caucuses
After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[8]
| Candidate | Initial alignment |
Final alignment[lower-alpha 1] |
State delegate equivalents[lower-alpha 2] |
Pledged national convention delegates[12][lower-alpha 3] | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Number | % | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 37,572 | 21.31 | 43,209 | 25.08 | 562.95 | 26.17 | [lower-alpha 4]14 |
| Bernie Sanders | 43,581 | 24.71 | 45,652 | 26.50 | 562.02 | 26.13 | [lower-alpha 5]12 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 32,589 | 18.48 | 34,909 | 20.26 | 388.44 | 18.06 | [lower-alpha 6]8 |
| Joe Biden | 26,291 | 14.91 | 23,605 | 13.70 | 340.32 | 15.82 | [lower-alpha 7]6 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 22,454 | 12.73 | 21,100 | 12.25 | 263.87 | 12.27 | 1 |
| Andrew Yang | 8,914 | 5.05 | 1,758 | 1.02 | 21.86 | 1.02 | |
| Tom Steyer | 3,061 | 1.74 | 413 | 0.24 | 6.62 | 0.31 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[lower-alpha 8] | 212 | 0.12 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.01 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 341 | 0.19 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |
| Michael Bennet | 164 | 0.09 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Deval Patrick | 9 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Other | 155 | 0.09 | 198 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.03 | |
| Uncommitted | 1,009 | 0.57 | 1,420 | 0.82 | 3.73 | 0.17 | |
| Total[lower-alpha 9] | 176,352 | 100% | 172,300 | 100% | 2,150.83 | 100% | 41 |
Libertarian caucuses
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 Election results by county
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| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hornberger | 133 | 47.52% |
| Lincoln Chafee | 36 | 12.77% |
| Jo Jorgensen | 18 | 6.38% |
| Adam Kokesh | 17 | 6.03% |
| Dan Behrman | 14 | 4.96% |
| John McAfee | 10 | 3.55% |
| Vermin Supreme | 9 | 3.19% |
| Other (write-in) | 8 | 2.84% |
| None of the above | 8 | 2.84% |
| Sam Robb | 7 | 2.48% |
| Max Abramson | 6 | 2.13% |
| Mark Whitney | 4 | 1.42% |
| Arvin Vohra | 3 | 1.06% |
| Ken Armstrong | 2 | 0.71% |
| Souraya Faas | 2 | 0.71% |
| Benjamin Leder | 1 | 0.35% |
| John Monds | 1 | 0.35% |
| Total | 281 | 100% |
The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[16][17]
General election
Final predictions
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Tossup |
| Inside Elections[19] | Tossup |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Lean R |
| Politico[21] | Tossup |
| RCP[22] | Tossup |
| Niskanen[23] | Tossup |
| CNN[24] | Tossup |
| The Economist[25] | Tossup |
| CBS News[26] | Tossup |
| 270towin[27] | Tossup |
| ABC News[28] | Tossup |
| NPR[29] | Tossup |
| NBC News[30] | Tossup |
| 538[31] | Lean R |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 10] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 31 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.2% | 47.8% | 6.0% | Trump +1.6 |
| Real Clear Politics | October 23 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.6% | 47.6% | 6.8% | Trump +2.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.3% | 47.6% | 6.1% | Trump +1.3 |
| Average | 46.0% | 47.7% | 6.3% | Trump +1.5 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 11] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,489 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51%[lower-alpha 13] | 48% | – | – | – | – |
| Change Research | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 14] | 1% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 15] | 0% |
| Data for Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 16] | – |
| Emerson College | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49%[lower-alpha 17] | 47% | – | – | 4% | 0% |
| InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 1% | – | – | 6% |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register | Oct 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | – | – | 8%[lower-alpha 18] | 2%[lower-alpha 19] |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 3,005 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | 49% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 46% | – | – | 1%[lower-alpha 20] | 6% |
| RABA Research/WHO13 News | Oct 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 50% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% |
| Emerson College | Oct 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48%[lower-alpha 17] | 48% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 21] | 0% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ | Oct 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47%[lower-alpha 22] | 47% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 4% |
| 45%[lower-alpha 23] | 49% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 4% | ||||
| 49%[lower-alpha 24] | 48% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 4% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 25] | 7%[lower-alpha 26] |
| Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] | Oct 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 2% | – | – | 8% |
| Monmouth University | Oct 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 27] | 2%[lower-alpha 28] | 2% |
| 501 (LV)[lower-alpha 29] | 47% | 50% | – | – | – | – | |||
| 501 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] | 46% | 51% | – | – | – | – | |||
| David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | Oct 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 0% | – | 3% |
| YouGov/CBS | Oct 6–9, 2020 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 31] | 0% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 2] | Oct 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 46%[lower-alpha 17] | 47% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 32] | 4%[lower-alpha 26] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Oct 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 21] | 1% |
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,276 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | Sep 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47%[lower-alpha 22] | 44% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| 50%[lower-alpha 33] | 45% | – | – | – | 5% | ||||
| Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[upper-alpha 3] | Sep 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| RABA Research/WHO13 News | Sep 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 48% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 34] | 4% |
| Monmouth University | Sep 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 44% | 2% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 35] | 2% |
| 402 (LV) | 49%[lower-alpha 29] | 46% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 36] | 2% | |||
| 49%[lower-alpha 30] | 46% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 36] | 2% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 42% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 25] | 10%[lower-alpha 26] |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register | Sep 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 21] | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 1%[lower-alpha 37] | 6% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 2] | Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 51%[lower-alpha 17] | 43% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 983 (LV) | – | 53% | 46% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Monmouth University | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 3% | – | <1%[lower-alpha 38] | 3% |
| 401 (LV) | 48%[lower-alpha 29] | 46% | 2% | <1%[lower-alpha 39] | 3% | ||||
| 47%[lower-alpha 30] | 47% | 2% | 0%[lower-alpha 40] | 3% | |||||
| Data for Progress | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | – | 44%[lower-alpha 22] | 42% | 3% | 1% | – | 10% |
| 46%[lower-alpha 33] | 45% | – | – | – | 9% | ||||
| David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America | Jul 30–31, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,095 (LV) | – | 54% | 45% | – | – | – | 1% |
| RMG Research | Jul 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 40% | – | – | 7% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[upper-alpha 4] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 1,118 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | 6% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 5] | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 455 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register | Jun 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 10%[lower-alpha 41] | 3% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Jun 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | – | – | 7%[lower-alpha 42] | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/Emily's List Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 6] | Jun 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | – | – | – | 6% |
| GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Archived May 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Apr 13–16, 2020 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 6% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register | Mar 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 41% | – | – | – | – |
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 1,689 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 43] | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 29–31, 2019 | 964 (V) | – | 49% | 46% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Emerson College Archived December 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Dec 7–10, 2019 | 1,043 (RV) | ± 3% | 49% | 45% | – | – | – | 6% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 25–30, 2019 | 1,435 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 3% | 5% |
| Emerson College | Oct 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 21–24, 2019 | 707 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College | Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 | 831 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown
with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
897,672 | 53.09% | +1.94% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
759,061 | 44.89% | +3.15% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
19,637 | 1.16% | −2.62% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
3,210 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
3,075 | 0.18% | −0.55% | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
1,707 | 0.10% | −0.24% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,082 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Genealogy Know Your Family History | Ricki Sue King Dayna Chandler |
546 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
544 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 4,337 | 0.38% | −1.09% | ||
| Total votes | 1,690,871 | 100.00% | |||
Results by county
| County | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Other votes | Margin | Total votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
| Adair | 69.83% | 2,917 | 28.68% | 1,198 | 0.84% | 35 | 0.65% | 27 | 41.15% | 1,719 | 4,177 |
| Adams | 70.83% | 1,530 | 27.31% | 590 | 1.25% | 27 | 0.60% | 13 | 43.52% | 940 | 2,160 |
| Allamakee | 63.80% | 4,735 | 34.71% | 2,576 | 0.96% | 71 | 0.54% | 40 | 29.09% | 2,159 | 7,422 |
| Appanoose | 69.24% | 4,512 | 29.02% | 1,891 | 1.10% | 72 | 0.63% | 41 | 40.22% | 2,621 | 6,516 |
| Audubon | 67.11% | 2,295 | 31.32% | 1,071 | 0.94% | 32 | 0.64% | 22 | 35.79% | 1,224 | 3,420 |
| Benton | 62.75% | 9,188 | 35.24% | 5,160 | 1.27% | 186 | 0.74% | 108 | 27.51% | 4,028 | 14,642 |
| Black Hawk | 44.51% | 29,640 | 53.53% | 35,647 | 1.08% | 722 | 0.88% | 584 | -9.02% | -6,007 | 66,593 |
| Boone | 56.68% | 8,695 | 41.09% | 6,303 | 1.29% | 198 | 0.94% | 144 | 15.59% | 2,392 | 15,340 |
| Bremer | 57.02% | 8,294 | 40.96% | 5,958 | 1.27% | 185 | 0.75% | 109 | 16.06% | 2,336 | 14,546 |
| Buchanan | 59.59% | 6,420 | 38.70% | 4,169 | 0.89% | 96 | 0.83% | 89 | 20.89% | 2,251 | 10,774 |
| Buena Vista | 61.91% | 5,056 | 36.26% | 2,961 | 0.81% | 66 | 1.03% | 84 | 25.65% | 2,095 | 8,167 |
| Butler | 68.44% | 5,542 | 29.93% | 2,424 | 0.84% | 68 | 0.79% | 64 | 38.51% | 3,118 | 8,098 |
| Calhoun | 70.16% | 3,689 | 27.96% | 1,470 | 1.12% | 59 | 0.76% | 40 | 42.20% | 2,219 | 5,258 |
| Carroll | 68.26% | 7,737 | 30.47% | 3,454 | 0.60% | 68 | 0.67% | 76 | 37.79% | 4,283 | 11,335 |
| Cass | 68.29% | 4,969 | 30.25% | 2,201 | 0.84% | 61 | 0.62% | 45 | 38.04% | 2,768 | 7,276 |
| Cedar | 57.56% | 6,161 | 40.52% | 4,337 | 1.16% | 124 | 0.76% | 81 | 17.04% | 1,824 | 10,703 |
| Cerro Gordo | 52.28% | 12,442 | 45.97% | 10,941 | 0.82% | 196 | 0.93% | 222 | 6.31% | 1,501 | 23,801 |
| Cherokee | 68.96% | 4,495 | 29.70% | 1,936 | 0.74% | 48 | 0.60% | 39 | 39.26% | 2,559 | 6,518 |
| Chickasaw | 64.97% | 4,308 | 33.68% | 2,233 | 0.71% | 47 | 0.65% | 43 | 31.29% | 2,075 | 6,631 |
| Clarke | 67.32% | 3,144 | 31.39% | 1,466 | 0.73% | 34 | 0.56% | 26 | 35.93% | 1,678 | 4,670 |
| Clay | 68.42% | 6,137 | 29.68% | 2,662 | 1.13% | 101 | 0.77% | 69 | 38.74% | 3,475 | 8,969 |
| Clayton | 63.64% | 6,106 | 34.81% | 3,340 | 0.85% | 82 | 0.69% | 66 | 28.83% | 2,766 | 9,594 |
| Clinton | 54.13% | 13,361 | 43.81% | 10,812 | 1.27% | 314 | 0.79% | 194 | 10.32% | 2,549 | 24,681 |
| Crawford | 67.85% | 4,854 | 31.03% | 2,220 | 0.59% | 42 | 0.53% | 38 | 36.82% | 2,634 | 7,154 |
| Dallas | 49.96% | 27,987 | 47.98% | 26,879 | 1.33% | 744 | 0.73% | 412 | 1.98% | 1,108 | 56,022 |
| Davis | 73.92% | 3,032 | 24.70% | 1,013 | 0.73% | 30 | 0.66% | 27 | 49.22% | 2,019 | 4,102 |
| Decatur | 68.74% | 2,615 | 29.44% | 1,120 | 0.76% | 29 | 1.05% | 40 | 39.30% | 1,495 | 3,804 |
| Delaware | 66.64% | 6,666 | 31.56% | 3,157 | 0.87% | 87 | 0.93% | 93 | 35.08% | 3,509 | 10,003 |
| Des Moines | 53.08% | 10,592 | 44.56% | 8,893 | 1.38% | 275 | 0.98% | 196 | 8.52% | 1,699 | 19,956 |
| Dickinson | 66.15% | 7,438 | 32.56% | 3,661 | 0.82% | 92 | 0.47% | 53 | 33.59% | 3,777 | 11,244 |
| Dubuque | 50.47% | 27,214 | 47.58% | 25,657 | 1.03% | 556 | 0.93% | 499 | 2.89% | 1,557 | 53,926 |
| Emmet | 67.28% | 3,265 | 31.32% | 1,520 | 0.74% | 36 | 0.66% | 32 | 35.96% | 1,745 | 4,853 |
| Fayette | 60.33% | 6,145 | 37.65% | 3,835 | 1.00% | 102 | 1.02% | 104 | 22.68% | 2,310 | 10,186 |
| Floyd | 58.91% | 4,732 | 39.49% | 3,172 | 0.78% | 63 | 0.81% | 65 | 19.42% | 1,560 | 8,032 |
| Franklin | 66.71% | 3,422 | 31.70% | 1,626 | 0.88% | 45 | 0.72% | 37 | 35.01% | 1,796 | 5,130 |
| Fremont | 70.29% | 2,711 | 28.00% | 1,080 | 0.96% | 37 | 0.75% | 29 | 42.29% | 1,631 | 3,857 |
| Greene | 63.73% | 3,223 | 34.98% | 1,769 | 0.71% | 36 | 0.57% | 29 | 28.75% | 1,454 | 5,057 |
| Grundy | 67.74% | 4,929 | 30.32% | 2,206 | 1.20% | 87 | 0.74% | 54 | 37.42% | 2,723 | 7,276 |
| Guthrie | 67.05% | 4,272 | 31.16% | 1,985 | 1.24% | 79 | 0.55% | 35 | 35.89% | 2,287 | 6,371 |
| Hamilton | 62.39% | 4,956 | 35.79% | 2,843 | 0.89% | 71 | 0.92% | 73 | 26.60% | 2,113 | 7,943 |
| Hancock | 71.13% | 4,390 | 27.27% | 1,683 | 0.79% | 49 | 0.81% | 50 | 43.86% | 2,707 | 6,172 |
| Hardin | 65.08% | 5,850 | 33.11% | 2,976 | 1.17% | 105 | 0.65% | 58 | 31.97% | 2,874 | 8,989 |
| Harrison | 68.29% | 5,569 | 29.92% | 2,440 | 1.04% | 85 | 0.75% | 61 | 38.37% | 3,129 | 8,155 |
| Henry | 65.19% | 6,507 | 32.81% | 3,275 | 1.28% | 128 | 0.72% | 72 | 32.38% | 3,232 | 9,982 |
| Howard | 63.07% | 3,127 | 35.74% | 1,772 | 0.46% | 23 | 0.73% | 36 | 27.33% | 1,355 | 4,958 |
| Humboldt | 71.69% | 3,819 | 27.07% | 1,442 | 0.73% | 39 | 0.51% | 27 | 44.62% | 2,377 | 5,327 |
| Ida | 74.82% | 2,880 | 23.82% | 917 | 0.70% | 27 | 0.65% | 25 | 51.00% | 1,963 | 3,849 |
| Iowa | 61.68% | 6,009 | 36.41% | 3,547 | 1.05% | 102 | 0.87% | 84 | 25.27% | 2,462 | 9,742 |
| Jackson | 62.33% | 6,940 | 36.18% | 4,029 | 0.71% | 79 | 0.78% | 87 | 26.15% | 2,911 | 11,135 |
| Jasper | 59.87% | 12,084 | 38.33% | 7,737 | 1.03% | 207 | 0.77% | 156 | 21.54% | 4,347 | 20,184 |
| Jefferson | 49.59% | 4,443 | 48.21% | 4,319 | 1.06% | 95 | 1.14% | 102 | 1.38% | 124 | 8,959 |
| Johnson | 27.34% | 22,925 | 70.57% | 59,177 | 1.15% | 964 | 0.94% | 785 | -43.23% | -36,252 | 83,851 |
| Jones | 59.81% | 6,572 | 38.34% | 4,213 | 1.07% | 118 | 0.78% | 86 | 21.47% | 2,359 | 10,989 |
| Keokuk | 71.60% | 3,797 | 26.66% | 1,414 | 0.96% | 51 | 0.77% | 41 | 44.94% | 2,383 | 5,303 |
| Kossuth | 69.03% | 6,275 | 29.66% | 2,696 | 0.67% | 61 | 0.64% | 58 | 39.37% | 3,579 | 9,090 |
| Lee | 58.40% | 9,773 | 39.09% | 6,541 | 1.43% | 240 | 1.08% | 180 | 19.31% | 3,232 | 16,734 |
| Linn | 41.87% | 53,364 | 55.61% | 70,874 | 1.58% | 2,015 | 0.94% | 1,205 | -13.74% | -17,510 | 127,458 |
| Louisa | 65.64% | 3,500 | 32.37% | 1,726 | 1.26% | 67 | 0.73% | 39 | 33.27% | 1,774 | 5,332 |
| Lucas | 70.99% | 3,287 | 27.73% | 1,284 | 0.65% | 30 | 0.63% | 29 | 43.26% | 2,003 | 4,630 |
| Lyon | 83.16% | 5,707 | 15.55% | 1,067 | 0.82% | 56 | 0.48% | 33 | 67.61% | 4,640 | 6,863 |
| Madison | 66.24% | 6,507 | 31.90% | 3,134 | 1.26% | 124 | 0.60% | 59 | 34.34% | 3,373 | 9,824 |
| Mahaska | 72.76% | 8,297 | 25.38% | 2,894 | 1.18% | 134 | 0.69% | 79 | 47.38% | 5,403 | 11,404 |
| Marion | 65.84% | 12,663 | 32.12% | 6,178 | 1.21% | 233 | 0.82% | 158 | 33.72% | 6,485 | 19,232 |
| Marshall | 52.77% | 9,571 | 45.08% | 8,176 | 1.19% | 216 | 0.95% | 173 | 7.69% | 1,395 | 18,136 |
| Mills | 67.55% | 5,585 | 30.33% | 2,508 | 1.21% | 100 | 0.90% | 75 | 37.22% | 3,077 | 8,268 |
| Mitchell | 63.16% | 3,677 | 35.26% | 2,053 | 0.96% | 56 | 0.62% | 36 | 27.90% | 1,624 | 5,822 |
| Monona | 68.70% | 3,248 | 29.76% | 1,407 | 0.76% | 36 | 0.79% | 37 | 38.94% | 1,841 | 4,728 |
| Monroe | 72.77% | 2,975 | 26.37% | 1,078 | 0.51% | 21 | 0.34% | 14 | 46.40% | 1,897 | 4,088 |
| Montgomery | 68.69% | 3,659 | 29.72% | 1,583 | 0.94% | 50 | 0.66% | 35 | 38.97% | 2,076 | 5,327 |
| Muscatine | 52.36% | 10,823 | 45.34% | 9,372 | 1.42% | 293 | 0.89% | 183 | 7.02% | 1,451 | 20,671 |
| O'Brien | 77.62% | 5,861 | 20.78% | 1,569 | 1.02% | 77 | 0.58% | 44 | 56.84% | 4,292 | 7,551 |
| Osceola | 80.83% | 2,690 | 18.06% | 601 | 0.54% | 18 | 0.57% | 19 | 62.77% | 2,089 | 3,328 |
| Page | 70.66% | 5,319 | 27.71% | 2,086 | 1.01% | 76 | 0.62% | 47 | 42.95% | 3,233 | 7,528 |
| Palo Alto | 67.97% | 3,370 | 30.64% | 1,519 | 0.87% | 43 | 0.52% | 26 | 37.33% | 1,851 | 4,958 |
| Plymouth | 73.95% | 10,492 | 24.63% | 3,494 | 0.79% | 112 | 0.63% | 90 | 49.32% | 6,998 | 14,188 |
| Pocahontas | 73.92% | 2,826 | 24.40% | 933 | 0.97% | 37 | 0.71% | 27 | 49.52% | 1,893 | 3,823 |
| Polk | 41.27% | 106,800 | 56.52% | 146,250 | 1.28% | 3,322 | 0.93% | 2,383 | -15.25% | -39,450 | 258,755 |
| Pottawattamie | 57.38% | 26,247 | 40.61% | 18,575 | 1.21% | 552 | 0.81% | 370 | 16.77% | 7,672 | 45,744 |
| Poweshiek | 55.79% | 5,657 | 42.47% | 4,306 | 0.89% | 90 | 0.86% | 87 | 13.32% | 1,351 | 10,140 |
| Ringgold | 72.51% | 1,968 | 26.12% | 709 | 0.66% | 18 | 0.70% | 19 | 46.39% | 1,259 | 2,714 |
| Sac | 73.37% | 4,061 | 25.09% | 1,389 | 0.85% | 47 | 0.69% | 38 | 48.28% | 2,672 | 5,535 |
| Scott | 47.17% | 43,683 | 50.68% | 46,926 | 1.21% | 1,124 | 0.94% | 866 | -3.51% | -3,243 | 92,599 |
| Shelby | 69.12% | 4,697 | 28.83% | 1,959 | 1.22% | 83 | 0.82% | 56 | 40.29% | 2,738 | 6,795 |
| Sioux | 82.31% | 15,680 | 15.85% | 3,019 | 0.89% | 170 | 0.96% | 182 | 66.46% | 12,661 | 19,051 |
| Story | 39.85% | 20,340 | 57.16% | 29,175 | 1.81% | 924 | 0.78% | 599 | -17.31% | -8,835 | 51,038 |
| Tama | 58.61% | 5,303 | 39.53% | 3,577 | 0.96% | 87 | 0.90% | 81 | 19.08% | 1,726 | 9,048 |
| Taylor | 75.81% | 2,463 | 22.96% | 746 | 0.52% | 17 | 0.71% | 23 | 52.85% | 1,717 | 3,249 |
| Union | 64.83% | 4,010 | 33.32% | 2,061 | 0.99% | 61 | 0.86% | 53 | 31.51% | 1,949 | 6,185 |
| Van Buren | 75.42% | 2,859 | 23.08% | 875 | 0.61% | 23 | 0.90% | 34 | 52.34% | 1,984 | 3,791 |
| Wapello | 60.87% | 9,516 | 37.24% | 5,821 | 1.28% | 200 | 0.61% | 96 | 23.63% | 3,695 | 15,633 |
| Warren | 57.29% | 17,782 | 40.51% | 12,574 | 1.39% | 430 | 0.82% | 253 | 16.78% | 5,208 | 31,039 |
| Washington | 59.25% | 6,971 | 38.77% | 4,561 | 1.22% | 144 | 0.76% | 89 | 20.48% | 2,410 | 11,765 |
| Wayne | 75.20% | 2,338 | 23.38% | 727 | 0.64% | 20 | 0.77% | 24 | 51.82% | 1,611 | 3,109 |
| Webster | 61.37% | 10,938 | 37.11% | 6,613 | 0.72% | 128 | 0.80% | 143 | 24.26% | 4,325 | 17,822 |
| Winnebago | 62.09% | 3,707 | 35.76% | 2,135 | 1.21% | 72 | 0.94% | 56 | 26.33% | 1,572 | 5,970 |
| Winneshiek | 51.68% | 6,235 | 46.56% | 5,617 | 0.93% | 112 | 0.83% | 100 | 5.12% | 618 | 12,064 |
| Woodbury | 57.63% | 25,736 | 41.23% | 18,704 | 0.96% | 435 | 1.07% | 487 | 16.40% | 7,032 | 45,362 |
| Worth | 61.97% | 2,738 | 36.12% | 1,596 | 0.86% | 38 | 1.04% | 46 | 25.85% | 1,142 | 4,418 |
| Wright | 66.13% | 4,136 | 31.92% | 1,996 | 1.12% | 70 | 0.83% | 52 | 34.21% | 2,140 | 6,254 |
Swing by county
Legend
-
Democratic — +5-7.5%
- Democratic — +2.5-5%
- Democratic — +0-2.5%
- Republican — +0-2.5%
- Republican — +2.5-5%
- Republican — +5-7.5%
- Republican — +7.5-10%
- Republican — +10-12.5%
Results by congressional district
Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50.79% | 47.38% | Abby Finkenauer |
| Ashley Hinson | |||
| 2nd | 51.10% | 47.10% | Dave Loebsack |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | |||
| 3rd | 49.15% | 49.02% | Cindy Axne |
| 4th | 62.68% | 35.73% | Steve King |
| Randy Feenstra | |||
Analysis
Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[33] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in the Hawkeye State.[34]
During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[35] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.
Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.
Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County. He was the first Democrat since Roosevelt in 1944 to win without Chickasaw County. He was also the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Mitchell, Tama, Poweshiek, Union, Webster, Worth, Boone, Clark, Des Moines, Floyd, Jackson, Jasper, and Lee counties, and the first Democrat since Carter to win without Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar, Clayton, Clinton, Fayette, Jefferson, Jones, Louisa, Marshall, Muscatine, and Winneshiek counties.
See also
Notes
- Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
- The official results included four decimal digits.
- In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
- Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[14]
- Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[10]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 2%
- Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Don't recall" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Do not remember"
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- Standard VI response
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- No voters
- "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Other third party" with 2%
- "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
- If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
- "Other candidate" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
- "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
- Would not vote with 1%
- "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
- "Other" with <1%
- "Other" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
- "Someone else" with 7%
- Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- Other and would not vote with 2%
- Partisan clients
- The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
- The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
- The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
- Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
- End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Joe Biden, Mike Pence to campaign in Iowa this week, underscoring competitive presidential race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
- "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
- "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
- "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
- Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
- "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
- Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
- "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
- Gonyea, Don (February 14, 2020). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
- Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
- "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
- McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
- "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- Alberta, Tim (February 3, 2020). "Whoever Wins Iowa, They Won't Be Back". POLITICO. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Iowa
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (Describes bellwether Marshall County, Iowa)
External links
- "League of Women Voters of Iowa". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Iowa", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Iowa: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
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