2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]
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Elections in Arizona |
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On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]
Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.
Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by 0.3%, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.
Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.
Interim appointments
Appointees
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. Senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip, resigned December 31, 2018[4][9]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, assumed office January 3, 2019[10]
Potential candidates not appointed
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[11]
- Barbara Barrett, Secretary of the Air Force and former United States Ambassador to Finland[11]
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona and former Secretary of State of Arizona[12]
- Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[13]
- Eileen Klein, former Treasurer of Arizona and former chief of staff to former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer[11]
- Cindy McCain, widow of former U.S. senator John McCain[11]
- Meghan McCain, daughter of former U.S. senator John McCain[14]
- Mick McGuire, incumbent Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard[13]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, businesswoman and incumbent member of the Arizona Board of Regents[11]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative, 2002 gubernatorial nominee and former Chairperson of the Arizona Republican Party[11]
- David Schweikert, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district[15]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district[11]
- Kelli Ward, former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[13]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[13]
Republican primary
Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign, however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]
Nominee
- Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. Senator and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district[17][18]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[27]
- Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Maricopa County Sheriff)[28][29]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona[30]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[31]
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip[9][32][33]
- Blake Masters, President of the Thiel Foundation[34][35]
- Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball player and Blaze Media commentator[36]
- Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona[37][38]
Endorsements
- U.S. Presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[39]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[40]
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[41]
- Individuals
- Buzz Aldrin, U.S. astronaut[42]
- Organizations
Primary results
![](../I/Arizona_U.S._Senate_Republican_primary%252C_2020.svg.png.webp)
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 551,119 | 75.2% | |
Republican | Daniel McCarthy | 181,551 | 24.8% | |
Republican | Sean Lyons (write-in) | 210 | nil | |
Total votes | 732,880 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, retired American astronaut, engineer, retired U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords[49]
Eliminated in primary
- Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]
Withdrew
- Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate (write-in)[50] (switched to Democratic general election write-in candidacy)[51]
- Sheila Bilyeu, Democratic candidate for the 2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[52]
- Juan Angel Vasquez[53]
Declined
- Ruben Gallego, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election) (endorsed Mark Kelly)[54]
- Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State of Arizona[55]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[56]
Endorsements
- U.S. Presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[57]
- U.S. Senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California[58]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[59]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona[60]
- U.S. Representatives
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative (AZ-07)[54]
- Individuals
- Organizations
- 314 Action[61]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
- Council for a Livable World[63]
- Brady Campaign[64]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
- End Citizens United[66]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
- Feminist Majority PAC[68]
- High School Democrats of America[69]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[71]
- League of Conservation Voters[72]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
- National Organization for Women[74]
- Students for Gun Legislation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
- Sierra Club[76]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
- VoteVets[78]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly | 665,620 | 99.9% | |
Democratic | Bo Garcia (write-in) | 451 | 0.1% | |
Total votes | 666,071 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.
Eliminated in primary
- Barry Hess, write-in Libertarian candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona and Libertarian nominee in the 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election[79][80]
- Alan White[19]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Barry Hess (write-in) | 329 | 76.5% | |
Libertarian | Alan White (write-in) | 101 | 23.5% | |
Total votes | 430 | 100.0% |
Other candidates
Declared
- Republican
- Democratic
- Other
- Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
- William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
- Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
- Nicholas N. Glenn, navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
- Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
- Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
- Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
- Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
- Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 6, 2020
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[84] | Lean D (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[85] | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[87] | Lean D (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[88] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[89] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[90] | Likely D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
538[91] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[92] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[39]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[40]
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN (2017–2018) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[93]
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[41]
- Organizations
- Maggie's List[43]
- Campaign for Working Families[44]
- Huck PAC[45]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[46]
- Susan B. Anthony List[47]
- Newspapers
- Others
- Buzz Aldrin, former astronaut and lunar module pilot for Apollo 11[95]
- Federal officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[96]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California; 49th Vice President of the United States[58]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[59]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona[97]
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative from AZ-07[54]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from MA-06[98]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[61]
- Center for Biological Diversity[99]
- Climate Hawks Vote[100]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
- Council for a Livable World[63]
- Brady Campaign[64]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
- End Citizens United[66]
- Equality Arizona[101]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
- Feminist Majority PAC[68]
- High School Democrats of America[69]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[71]
- J Street[102]
- League of Conservation Voters[72]
- MoveOn[103]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
- National Education Association[104]
- National Organization for Women[74]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[105]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
- Sierra Club[76]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
- VoteVets[78]
- Unions
- Newspapers
- Others
- Kerry Washington, actress
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mark Kelly | Martha McSally | Margin |
270 to Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.0 |
Real Clear Politics | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 50.5% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.7 |
Average | 50.2% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.4 |
Polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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|
- with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Daniel McCarthy (R) |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research[upper-alpha 12] | June 20–23, 2020 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
- with Ruben Gallego
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 12–13, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 10%[lower-alpha 14] |
- on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 16%[lower-alpha 91] |
Public Policy Polling | January 24–25, 2019 | 682 (V) | – | 40% | 54% | 6% |
- with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | October 4–8, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10%[lower-alpha 92] |
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | September 23 – October 2, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 42% | 14%[lower-alpha 93] |
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 13] | September 15–22, 2020 | 481 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 42% | 15%[lower-alpha 46] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 10–15, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 50% | 6%[lower-alpha 94] |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 46% | 13%[lower-alpha 95] |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] | August 2–4, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | 14%[lower-alpha 96] |
Climate Nexus | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 12%[lower-alpha 97] |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] | Jan 22–24, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 6%[lower-alpha 98] |
OH Predictive Insights | December 3–4, 2019 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 11%[lower-alpha 99] |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 14%[lower-alpha 100] |
OH Predictive Insights Archived September 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | February 12–13, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 39% | 17%[lower-alpha 101] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly | 1,716,467 | 51.16% | +10.41% | |
Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 1,637,661 | 48.81% | −4.90% | |
Write-in | 1,169 | 0.03% | -0.03% | ||
Total votes | 3,355,297 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican |
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See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
- "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
- "Other" and Undecided with 1%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
- "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 10%
- "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 2%
- "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Standard VI response
- "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
- "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
- Undecided with 7%
- Undecided with 4%
- "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
- Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
- Undecided with 5%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
- "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 15%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
- Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
- "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
- "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
- Undecided with 9%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
- "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
- "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- "No one" with 10%
- "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
- Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
- Undecided with 12%
- Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
- Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
- "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
- Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
- "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
- "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
- Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
- "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
- "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
- "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- Undecided with 13%
- Undecided with 14%
- "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
- "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
- "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
- "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
- Partisan clients
- The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
- The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
- This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
- Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
- Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
- Poll sponsored by AARP.
- Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Polling was sponsored by OANN.
- This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
References
- "What happens next to John McCain's Senate seat". Politico. August 25, 2018. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- "Who could be appointed to replace John McCain in the Senate, and the process behind it, explained". Vox. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (December 14, 2018). "Jon Kyl will resign from the U.S. Senate on Dec. 31, setting up another appointment by Ducey to John McCain's seat". Arizona Republic. Retrieved December 14, 2018.
- Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett; Hansen, Ronald J. (December 18, 2018). "Martha McSally will be appointed to John McCain's Senate seat". Arizona Republic. Retrieved December 18, 2018.
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The endorsees include Senate hopeful Mark Kelly, a Democrat running to unseat Sen. Martha McSally (R) in Arizona,
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Further reading
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", The Washington Post
External links
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Arizona 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites