2021 Mexican legislative election

Legislative elections were held in Mexico on 6 June 2021. Voters elected 500 deputies (300 in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post, 200 by proportional representation) to sit in the Chamber of Deputies for the 65th Congress.

2021 Mexican legislative election
Mexico
6 June 2021
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
Turnout52.7%[1]
PartyLeader % Seats +/–
Juntos Hacemos Historia (278 seats)
MORENA Mario Martín Delgado 35.30 198 +7
PVEM Karen Castrejón Trujillo 5.63 43 +27
PT Alberto Anaya 3.36 37 -24
Va por México (199 seats)
PAN Marko Cortés Mendoza 18.89 114 +33
PRI Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas 18.36 70 +25
PRD Ángel Ávila Romero 3.78 15 -6
Other party (23 seats)
MC Clemente Castañeda 7.27 23 -4
Results by constituency
Politics of Mexico
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Foreign relations
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On 5 December 2020, the National Action Party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Party of the Democratic Revolution announced an electoral alliance, Va por México ("Go For Mexico").[2][3] Morena, the Labour Party and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico formed the Juntos Hacemos Historia (″Together we make history″) coalition.[4] Both alliances were approved by the National Electoral Institute (INE).[5]

The INE issued a statement on 3 February 2021 saying that it would not be prudent to postpone the election because of the COVID-19 pandemic and doing so could even trigger a constitutional crisis by delaying the opening of the 65th Congress. INE board president Lorenzo Córdova Vianello noted the successful elections in Hidalgo and Coahuila in October 2020.[6]

On 13 April 2021, the INE canceled the registrations of Manuel Guillermo Chapman (Morena), Ana Elizabeth Ayala Leyva, (Juntos Haremos Historia), and Raúl Tadeo Nava (Labor Party) for failure to certify their lack of involvement in gender violence.[7] On 3 June, the INE warned about possible sanctions on Catholic bishops, in particular Juan Sandoval Íñiguez, for their interference in the elections.[8]

The elections were Mexico's largest in history and were tainted by several political assassinations and the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.[9][10]

Parties
A woman inserting her vote into a ballot box, Mexico City, 6 June 2021

Two alliances took part: Juntos Hacemos Historia and Va por México.

Alliance Parties
Juntos Hacemos Historia Morena
Labor Party (PT)
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM)
Va por México National Action Party (PAN)
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)

Two alliances were formed for the 2021 legislative election. Both are partial alliances, running joint candidates in most districts but running individual candidates in others.[11]

On 22 December 2020, PRI, PAN, and PRD announced the electoral alliance Va por México.[12] The alliance initially planned to run together in 180 of the 300 electoral districts, but on 23 December, the last day of registration, announced that they would only run together in 171 districts.[13] On 15 February 2021 the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) approved the expansion of the coalition to a total of 219 districts. PRI represents the alliance in 77 districts, PAN in 72, and PRD in 70.[14]

In December 2020 Morena, PT, and PVEM announced an electoral alliance, running together in 150 of the 300 electoral districts.[15] On 18 March 2021 the coalition was expanded to cover 183 districts. The alliance is represented by MORENA in 88 districts, PT in 50, and PVEM in 45.[16]

Mexican law requires political parties to obtain at least 3% of the vote to be registered. Registration allows the party to postulate candidates and receive subsidies for campaign expenses (MXN $161.9 million or US$8.1 million each in 2021).[17] Based on 2021 PREP results, Progressive Social Networks, Solidarity Encounter Party, and Force for Mexico will lose their registration. RSP, affiliated with teachers′ union leader Elba Esther Gordillo, had 839,000 (1.76%) votes; PES, affiliated with evangelist Hugo Eric Flores, had 296,568 (2.73%) votes; and FM, affiliated with Senator Ricardo Monreal, had 178,000 (2.48%) votes. The parties have the opportunity to reorganize for the next election.[18]

Distribution of electoral districts by coalition
Va por México[19] Juntos Hacemos Historia[20]
  Candidate from PRI (77)
  Candidate from PAN (72)
  Candidate from PRD (70)
  No coalition candidate
  Candidate from MORENA (88)
  Candidate from PVEM (50)
  Candidate from PT (45)
  No coalition candidate

Opinion polls
Poll Source Date Published Date of Poll Sample Size Margin of Error
Other Undecided/No Answer
Massive Caller[21] August 2020 No Data 600 No Data 40% 11.8% 24.2% 2.16% 3.23% 18.4% No Data
GEA-ISA[22] 17 September 2020 5–7 September 2020 No Data No Data 22% 17% 14% - - 7% 40%
Massive Caller[23] 19 October 2020 No Data 600 ±4.3% 41.8% 12.3% 31.7% 2.3% 3.4% 8.5% No Data
El Universal[24] 30 November 2020 12–17 November 2020 1000 ±3.54% 32% 16% 17% 4% 3% No Data No Data
Mitofsky[25] 17 December 2020 No Data No Data No Data 28.4% 10.8% 14.9% 2.6% 2.6% 9.8% 30.9%
Mitofsky[26] 27 December 2020 No Data No Data No Data 27.4% 13.9% 12.4% 3.3% 1.4% 5.8% 35.8%
El Financiero[27] 4 February 2021 15–16 and 29–30 January 2021 1000 ±3.1% 38% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 33%
Massive Caller[28] 22 February 2021 19 February 2021 600 ±4.1% 51.3% 10.7% 31.3% 2.0% 2.2% No Data No Data
El Financiero[29] 4 March 2021 12–13 and 25–26 February 2021 1000 ±3.1% 44% 10% 10% 3% - No Data 29%
El Financiero[30] 8 April 2021 2–13 and 26–27 March 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 27%
Parametría[31] 10 April 2021 31 March – 10 April 2021 800 ±3.5% 32% 11% 12% 3% 4.5% 12.5% 25%
Massive Caller[32] 16 April 2021 1–15 April 2021 600 ±4.3% 42.1% 17.8% 24.1% 3.4% 4.8% 7.8% No Data
Reforma[33] 16 April 2021 8–13 April 2021 1200 ±4.2% 45% 18% 17% 4% 3% 13% No Data
El Financiero[34] 5 May 2021 29 April – 2 May 2021 2000 ±3.1% 40% 20% 19% 3% 5% 13% No Data
El País[35] 17 May 2021 10–14 May 2021 2000 ±3.46% 44% 19% 18% 3% 5% 8% —
GEA-ISA[36] May 2021 14–17 May 2021 1500 ±2.5% 29.7% 13.0% 15.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.8% 21.5%
Varela y Asociados[37] 25 May 2021 29 April – 5 May 2021 1500 No Data 46% 15% 17% 5% 5% 12% —
El Universal[38] 27 May 2021 19–25 May 2021 1530 ±2.86% 41% 15.3% 15.9% 3% 7.9% 16.9% —
Parametria[39] 1 June 2021 22–28 May 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 16% 15% 3% 7% 19% —
El Financiero[40] 2 June 2021 14–15, 28–29, 27–30 May 2021 2000 ±2.86% 39% 20% 21% 3% 5% 12% —
Reforma[41] 2 June 2021 22–30 May 2021 2000 ±2.8% 43% 20% 18% 2% 7% 10% —

Controversies

Possibility of post-election protests

Prior Mexican elections have been fraught with accusations of election fraud, this had led to massive protests after the majority of Mexican elections in the past two decades. The 2021 legislative election did not cause protests. In a speech on 14 June, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said "We must celebrate it, because we achieved our purpose: to establish in Mexico an authentic, a true democracy."[42]

Political assassinations

The runup to the 2021 legislative election in Mexico was filled with political assassinations. More than 91 politicians were killed, 14 of them being candidates. This political violence led to the 2021 elections being labeled as the second most deadly election since the year 2000.[43]

Absentee voting

Mexican citizens from eleven states who live overseas can vote electronically or by mail. Most of the elections are for governor, but overseas citizens registered in Mexico City, Jalisco, and Guerrero will be able to vote in state legislative elections.[44]

INE approved a pilot program allowing prison inmates who are held in protective custody in Hermosillo (District 4, Sonora); Villa Comaltitlán, Chiapas; Coatlán del Río (District 4 Jojutla, Morelos); and Buena Vista Tomatlán (District 12 Apatzingán, Michoacán) to vote absentee from 17–19 May 2021. The present order covers only male inmates, but it may be extended to females.[45]

Results

The results were a stalemate. The Morena coalition (Juntos Hacemos Historia) retained their majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but lost a significant number of seats to the opposition coalition (Va por México). The opposition was able to gain enough seats to block Morena from the two-thirds majority required to make constitutional amendments. The Morena coalition won with over 44% of the popular vote. Morena and its allies performed very well in gubernatorial races winning about half of Mexico’s 32 governorships.[46]

Because Morena does not have a super-majority or a majority with Morena alone, there are questions about how that will impact legislative goals. Some say López Obrador might negotiate to bring his policies to fruition. Others say he could attempt to flex his executive muscle and brute force changes by using his powers as president.[47]

The 2021 Mexican legislative election also proved that the opposition performs stronger when they are allied together. With their alliance, the opposition stands a chance at denying Morena a legislative majority or even the presidency in the 2024 elections.[48]

The election had a voter turnout of 52.6% with 48.9 million votes cast, the largest midterm election in Mexican history.[49]

The results of the INE's official quick count were announced around midnight Mexico City time. It reported a voter percentage of around 35% for Morena, with the following approximate results for the other parties: PAN, 19%; PRI, 18%; PRD, 3.5%; Green Ecologist Party, 5%; and the Labor Party, 3%.[50]

Party or allianceParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Juntos
Hacemos
Historia		Morena16,756,18935.307616,629,90535.27122198+7
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico2,670,6775.63122,659,1785.643143+27
Labor Party1,594,6353.3671,588,1523.373037–24
Total21,021,50144.289520,877,23544.28183278+10
Va por MéxicoNational Action Party8,967,78518.89418,896,47018.8773114+33
Institutional Revolutionary Party8,715,19118.36408,663,25718.373070+25
Party of the Democratic Revolution1,792,3483.7881,785,3513.79715–6
Total19,475,32441.038919,345,07841.03110199+52
Citizens' Movement3,449,8047.27163,425,0067.26723–4
Solidarity Encounter Party1,352,3882.8501,344,8352.8500–56
Force for Mexico1,216,7802.5601,210,3842.5700New
Progressive Social Networks868,4441.830864,3911.8300New
Independents44,3110.09044,2920.09000
Non-registered candidates41,9250.09041,5580.09000
Total47,470,477100.0020047,152,779100.003005000
Valid votes47,470,47796.6047,152,77996.60
Invalid/blank votes1,673,0463.401,660,3633.40
Total votes49,143,523100.0048,813,142100.00
Source: DOF, INE

See also

References
  1. "Resultados de los Cómputos Distritales 2021". computos.ine.mx. Retrieved 12 June 2021.
  2. "The Party of the Democratic Revolution: From Postelectoral Movements to Electoral Competitors", Courting Democracy in Mexico, Cambridge University Press, pp. 198–233, 24 November 2003, doi:10.1017/cbo9780511490910.008, ISBN 978-0-521-82001-1, retrieved 23 December 2020
  3. Beauregard, Luis Pablo (5 December 2020). "El PAN aprueba aliarse con el PRI y PRD para intentar arrebatar el Congreso a Morena en 2021". EL PAÍS (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2020.
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  5. "Aprueba INE coaliciones "Va Por México" y "Juntos hacemos historia" para elecciones 2021". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). 15 January 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  6. "No es prudente posponer elecciones; la democracia no debe ser víctima del covid: Córdova". proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. 3 February 2021. Retrieved 3 February 2021.
  7. "El INE cancela tres candidaturas a diputación federal por violencia política de género". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  8. "INE podría armar expediente sobre intervención de jerarcas católicos en la elección". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  9. "Mexico Is Holding Its Largest Elections Ever. They're Also One Of Its Deadliest". NPR.org. Retrieved 7 June 2021.
  10. Suarez, Karol; Romo, Rafael; Berlinger, Joshua (7 June 2021). "Mexico's President loses grip on power in midterm elections marred by violence". CNN. Retrieved 7 June 2021.
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  13. "Registran Va por México en INE; busca 171 distritos". El Universal (in Spanish). 24 December 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  14. "RESOLUCIÓN DEL CONSEJO GENERAL DEL INSTITUTO NACIONAL ELECTORAL RESPECTO DE LA SOLICITUD DEL REGISTRO DE LA MODIFICACIÓN DEL CONVENIO DE LA COALICIÓN PARCIAL DENOMINADA "VA POR MÉXICO" PARA POSTULAR DOSCIENTAS DIECINUEVE FÓRMULAS DE CANDIDATURAS A DIPUTACIONES POR EL PRINCIPIO DE MAYORÍA RELATIVA, PRESENTADO POR LOS PARTIDOS ACCIÓN NACIONAL, REVOLUCIONARIO INSTITUCIONAL Y DE LA REVOLUCIÓN DEMOCRÁTICA, PARA CONTENDER BAJO ESA MODALIDAD EN EL PROCESO ELECTORAL FEDERAL 2020-2021, APROBADA MEDIANTE RESOLUCIÓN IDENTIFICADA CON LA CLAVE INE/CG20/2021, POR EL ÓRGANO SUPERIOR DE DIRECCIÓN DEL INSTITUTO NACIONAL ELECTORAL EN SESIÓN ORDINARIA CELEBRADA EL QUINCE DE ENERO DOS MIL VEINTIUNO" (PDF). INE official website (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2021.
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  22. "Cae aprobación de AMLO a 45%: GEA-ISA". HojaDeRuta (in Spanish). 17 September 2020. Retrieved 25 December 2020.
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  31. "Parametría". parametria.com.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  32. "Facebook". www.facebook.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 April 2021.
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  35. Corona, Sonia; Galindo, Jorge (17 May 2021). "Morena pierde la mayoría absoluta y necesita de aliados para controlar el Congreso". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 May 2021.
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  38. Buendía, Jorge; Márquez, Javier (27 May 2021). "Morena y aliados, a 12 curules de mayoría calificada en San Lázaro". El Universal (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  39. De Haldevang, Max (1 June 2021). "Mexico Government Close to Keeping Congress Super-Majority: Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  40. Moreno, Alejandro (2 June 2021). "País dividido: 46% perfila votar por la 4T; 44% por el PRI-PAN-PRD". El Financiero (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  41. "Lidera Morena preferencias a Diputados". Reforma (in Spanish). 2 June 2021. Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  42. República, Presidencia de la. "Versión estenográfica. Conferencia de prensa del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador del 14 de junio de 2021". gob.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 June 2021.
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  47. "What Happened on June 6?". THE MEXICO INSTITUTE 2021 ELECTIONS GUIDE. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  48. "What Happened on June 6?". THE MEXICO INSTITUTE 2021 ELECTIONS GUIDE. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
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  50. "Conteo rápido del INE proyecta a Morena y aliados sin mayoría calificada en Diputados". El Universal (in Spanish). 6 June 2021. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
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