2024 Queensland state election
The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly 47 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg.webp)
.jpg.webp)
.jpg.webp)
The Labor government, currently led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, will attempt to win a fourth term against the Liberal National opposition, currently led by David Crisafulli.
Electoral system
Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.
The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.
The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.
Key dates
The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[3] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.
Candidates
Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election.[4] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.[5]
Retiring members
Labor
- Jim Madden (Ipswich West) – announced retirement on 18 April 2023, citing "ongoing physical and mental health".[17][18]
- Stirling Hinchliffe (Sandgate) – announced retirement on 11 October 2023.[19]
Liberal National
- Mark Robinson (Oodgeroo) – announced retirement on 16 June 2023.[20]
- Michael Hart (Burleigh) – announced retirement on 6 September 2023.[21]
- Lachlan Millar (Gregory) – announced retirement on 18 October 2023.[22]
Electoral pendulum
This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in two seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
- Notes
- In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
- In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
Opinion polling
First-preference
| Firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Labor | Liberal National | Greens | One Nation | Katter's Australian | Other | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[23] | 4–10 October 2023 | 1,013 | 33% | 41% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 8 | ||
| RedBridge[24] | 26 August – 6 September 2023 | 2,012 | 26% | 41% | 14% | 9% | — | 10% | 15 | ||
| Resolve Strategic[25] | May – August 2023 | 943 | 32% | 38% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 10%[lower-alpha 1] | 6 | ||
| AFR/Freshwater Strategy[26] | 29 June – 2 July 2023 | 1,065 | 34% | 40% | 11% | — | — | 15% | 6 | ||
| Resolve Strategic[27] | 17 January – 17 April 2023 | 943 | 35% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 1% | 11%[lower-alpha 2] | 2 | ||
| YouGov[28] | 30 March – 5 April 2023 | 1,015 | 33% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 2% | — | 6 | ||
| YouGov[29] | 1–8 December 2022 | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 13% | 11% | — | 4% | 4 | ||
| Resolve Strategic[30] | 21 August – 4 December 2022 | 924 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 10%[lower-alpha 3] | 2 | ||
| YouGov[31] | 23–30 June 2022 | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 4 | ||
| YouGov[32] | 18–23 February 2022 | ~1,000 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 1 | ||
| 2020 election | 31 October 2020 | — | 39.57 52 |
35.89 34 |
9.47 2 |
7.12 1 |
2.52 3 |
2.48 1 |
3.68 | ||
Two-party preferred
| Firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Labor | Liberal National | Swing | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[23] | 4–10 October 2023 | 1,013 | 48% | 52% | +5.2 | ||||||
| RedBridge[24] | 26 August – 6 September 2023 | 2,012 | 45% | 55% | +8.2 | ||||||
| AFR/Freshwater Strategy[26] | 29 June – 2 July 2023 | 1,065 | 48% | 52% | +5.2 | ||||||
| YouGov[28] | 30 March – 5 April 2023 | 1,015 | 49% | 51% | +4.2 | ||||||
| YouGov[29] | 1–8 December 2022 | ~1,000 | 50% | 50% | +3.2 | ||||||
| Resolve Strategic[30] | 21 August – 4 December 2022 | 924 | 53.8% | 46.2% | +0.6 | ||||||
| YouGov[31] | 23–30 June 2022 | ~1,000 | 50% | 50% | +3.2 | ||||||
| YouGov[32] | 18–23 February 2022 | ~1,000 | 52% | 48% | –1.2 | ||||||
| 2020 election | 31 October 2020 | — | 53.2 52 |
46.8 34 |
+1.9 | ||||||
Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.
Preferred Premier
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | Don't know | |||
| 4–10 Oct 2023 | YouGov[23] | 1,013 | 35% | 37% | 28% |
| May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[25] | 943 | 36% | 37% | 27% |
| 29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[26] | 1,065 | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 17 Jan – 17 Apr 2023 | Resolve Strategic[27] | 943 | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| 30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 | YouGov[28] | 1,015 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| 1–8 Dec 2022 | YouGov[29] | ~1,000 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| 21 Aug – 4 Dec 2022 | Resolve Strategic[30] | 924 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| 23–30 Jun 2022 | YouGov[31] | ~1,000 | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Approval ratings
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | |||
| 4–10 Oct 2023 | YouGov[23] | 1,013 | 32% | 52% | 16% | –20% | 37% | 26% | 37% | +11% |
| May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[25] | 943 | — | — | — | –15% | — | — | — | +7% |
| 29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[26] | 1,065 | 39% | 47% | 14% | –8% | — | — | — | — |
| 1–8 Dec 2022 | YouGov[29] | ~1,000 | 40% | 41% | 19% | –1% | 31% | 27% | 42% | +4% |
| 23–30 Jun 2022 | YouGov[31] | ~1,000 | 45% | 30% | 16% | +15% | 31% | 23% | 46% | +8% |
| 18–23 Feb 2022 | YouGov[32] | ~1,000 | 50% | 36% | 14% | +14% | — | — | — | — |
Notes
-
- Independent: 8%
- Other: 2%
-
- Independent: 10%
- Other: 1%
-
- Independent: 7%
- Other: 3%
References
- The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
- Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
- "Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015" (PDF). www.legislation.qld.gov.au.
- Cosoleto, Tara (26 March 2023). "LNP names candidates 18 months out from Queensland poll". Brisbane Times. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
- McCarthy, Isaac (6 October 2023). "Katters announce Malanda man, ex-SAS soldier Bruce Logan as Cook candidate". Cairns Post. Retrieved 19 October 2023.
- Carruthers, Peter (4 October 2023). "Bree James chosen as LNP's Barron River candidate". Cairns Post. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
- Taylor, James (18 September 2023). "Bree Watson LNP state candidate for Bundaberg in 2024". NewsMail. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
- "Businesswoman Kendall Morton preselected by LNP for Caloundra seat bid". Sunshine Coast News. Australian Associated Press. 9 October 2023. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
- Johnson, Hayden (16 October 2023). "LNP endorses man who said 'good stuff' to 'racist' video". Retrieved 19 October 2023.
- Nufer, Darryn (18 August 2023). "Nigel Hutton revealed as LNP's candidate for Keppel at 2024 election". The Morning Bulletin. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
- Walker, Carlie (22 August 2023). "John Barounis to run for seat of Maryborough for LNP". Fraser Coast Chronicle. Retrieved 23 August 2023.
- Charles, Caitlan (5 October 2023). "Police officer Janelle Poole to run against Les Walker in Mundingburra". Townsville Bulletin. Retrieved 6 October 2023.
- "Mayor endorsed as LNP Noosa candidate". Noosa Today. 14 August 2023. Retrieved 15 August 2023.
- Bowman, Jay (8 October 2023). "Amanda Stoker steps up as Liberal National Party's Oodgeroo candidate, backed by David Crisafulli for 'tireless' work ethic". ABC News. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
- Johnson, Hayden (28 August 2023). "Kerri-Anne Dooley to again challenge Yvette D'Ath for Redcliffe at 2024 election". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
- Offord, Geordi (17 October 2023). "Donna Kirkland Announced as LNP Candidate for Rockhampton: State Election". The Morning Bulletin. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
- Dennien, Matt (18 April 2023). "Labor MP to retire from politics amid bullying and quota cloud". Brisbane Times. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- Madden, Jim (18 April 2023). Personal Explanation – Member for Ipswich West (PDF) (Speech). Parliament House, Brisbane: Queensland Parliament. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- Elks, Sarah (11 October 2023). "Stirling Hinchliffe calls it quits after 17 years to 'put family first'". The Australian. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
- McCormack, Madura (16 June 2023). "Oodgeroo MP Mark Robinson confirms retirement at next election, paving way for Amanda Stoker's political comeback". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
- McCormack, Madura (6 September 2023). "LNP MP for Burleigh Michael Hart won't recontest 2024 state election". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
- Gall, Sally (18 October 2023). "Gregory MP calls time on representing largest electorate in Queensland". Queensland Country Life. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
- "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier".
- "Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2023.
- https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-ahead-in-the-polls-as-voters-consider-crisafulli-over-palaszczuk-20230815-p5dwmf.html
- Ludlow, Mark (5 July 2023). "Palaszczuk on track to lose in 2024: poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
- Dennien, Matt (19 April 2023). "Crashing the parties: Voters mark leaders down but Palaszczuk keeps her edge". Brisbane Times.
- McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
- "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
- "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
- "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
| General elections |
|
|---|---|
| Referendums | |