2026 Victorian state election

The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria.[1] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

2026 Victorian state election
28 November 2026
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
LNP
Leader Jacinta Allan John Pesutto Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 27 September 2023 8 December 2022 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Bendigo East Hawthorn MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election 56 seats 28 seats[lower-alpha 1] 4 seats
Current seats 55[lower-alpha 2] 28 4
Seats needed Steady Increase 17 Increase 41
Incumbent Premier

Jacinta Allan
Labor


The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a fourth four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by John Pesutto.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission.

Background

Previous election and parliament
See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly); Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2022–2026; and Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Victorian state election
See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) and Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2022–2026

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.

Jacinta Allan and the Labor government is expected to be seeking a four-year term, after the previous premier Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier of Victoria and Member for Mulgrave in September 2023, effective the following day.[2]

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood down as Liberal leader a day after the party's poor result at the 2022 election, with John Pesutto elected as the new leader after the ensuing party room ballot.

Since the last state election they have had two by elections. The 2023 Narracan state by-election held in January 2023 and 2023 Warrandyte state by-election held in August 2023.

Electoral system

Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month.[1]

Legislative Assembly

For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in.[3] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.[4]

Legislative Council

For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'.[3] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council.[5]

When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences will then be automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket.[3]

When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of 5 boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate.[3]

Date

In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.[6]

Expected timeline of the election
  • 3 November 2026: The Legislative Assembly expires prompting the need for an election to be held. This also means that there are no longer any members, business of parliament ends until a new parliament is formed, and parliament enters into a caretaker period.[7]
  • 3 November 2026: On the same day that the Legislative Assembly expires, the Governor of Victoria issues a writ for the VEC to hold an election.[6]
  • 10 November 2026: 7 days after the writ is issued, at 8:00 pm, the electoral roll is closed meaning people can no longer be added to the electoral roll, update the electorate they live in, or update any other information.[6]
  • 13 November 2026: 10 days after the writ is issued, at noon, the period for submitting candidate nominations closes.[6]
  • 28 November 2026: The last Saturday of November, nearest to the fourth year following of the previous election date, is the Election Day.[6]
  • 19 December 2026: Within 21 days following election day, the Electoral Commissioner returns the writ with information regarding the successful candidates.[6]

Pre-electoral pendulum
Extended content
Labor seats (56)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP 0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP 1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP 2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP 2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP 3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP 3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP 4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP 6.2%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP 7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 7.2%
Ringwood Will Fowles ALP 7.5%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP 7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP 8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP 8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP 8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 9.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 10.2%
Mulgrave Vacant ALP 10.8% v IND
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 10.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 10.9%
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP 11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP 12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP 14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP 15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP 15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP 16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP 18.4%
Liberal/National seats (28)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB 0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT 1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB 1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB 4.0%
Warrandyte[lower-alpha 3] Nicole Werner LIB 4.3%
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT 4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB 4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB 6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT 6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT 9.9%
Safe
Narracan[lower-alpha 4] Wayne Farnham LIB 13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 24.6%

Opinion polling

Graphical summary
Primary vote

Voting intention
Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
September – October 2023 Resolve Strategic[8][lower-alpha 5] ~1,100 39% 32%* 12% 17% 57.5% 42.5%
27 September 2023
Jacinta Allan becomes premier and Labor leader
31 August – 14 September 2023 Redbridge[9] 3,001 37% 34%* 13% 16% 56.5% 43.5%
July – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[10][lower-alpha 5] ~1,100 39% 28%* 13% 20% 60% 40%
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan[11] 1,046 33% 35.5%* 12.5% 19%[lower-alpha 6] 53% 47%
May – June 2023 Resolve Strategic[12][lower-alpha 5] 1,003 41% 23% 3% 15% 18% 62.5% 37.5%
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan[13] 2,095 42% 28.5%* 12.5% 17%[lower-alpha 7] 61.5% 38.5%
19 – 22 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[14][lower-alpha 5] 1,609 42% 30%* 10% 17% 60.5% 39.5%
15 – 18 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[15][lower-alpha 5] 825 41% 30%* 13% 17% 60.9% 39.1%
8 December 2022
John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
26 November 2022 election[17] N/A N/A 37.0% 29.6% 4.8% 11.5% 17.1% 55% 45%
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[18] 1,226 38% 35%* 12% 15% 54.5% 45.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[19]

Preferred premier and satisfaction
Better premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better premier Allan Pesutto
Allan Pesutto Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
September – October 2023 Resolve Strategic[20] 38% 19% not asked not asked
27 September 2023 Allan replaces Andrews Andrews Pesutto Andrews Pesutto
July – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[21] 41% 32% not asked not asked
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan[11] 52.5% 47.5% 45% 55% not asked
May – June 2023 Resolve Strategic[12] 49% 26% not asked not asked
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan[13] 64% 36% 52.5% 47.5% 46.5% 53.5%
19 – 22 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[14] 49% 28% not asked not asked
15 – 18 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[15] 50% 26% not asked not asked
8 December 2022 Pesutto replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
26 November 2022 election – – – – – –
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[18] 51% 35% 46% 48% 31% 56%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[19]

Notes
  1. The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
  2. Excluding Will Fowles, who sits on the crossbench.
  3. The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
  4. Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
  5. Resolve Strategic does not publish TPP figures. The TPP figure shown here has been manually calculated.[16]
  6. Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, independents 10.5%, Other parties 6.5%
  7. Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, independents 9%, Other parties 5%

References
  1. "State elections". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  2. "Daniel Andrews to stand down as Victorian premier immediately". The Age. 26 September 2023.
  3. "Preferential voting". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  4. "State districts". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  5. "State regions". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  6. "Fact Sheet G3: Elections". Parliament of Victoria. 10 March 2015. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  7. "Fact Sheet A2: Terminology used in Parliament". Parliament of Victoria. 24 March 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
  8. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/jacinta-allan-maintains-commanding-lead-over-coalition-but-gap-narrows-20231010-p5eb5f.html
  9. https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf
  10. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-lead-stays-strong-but-andrews-personal-popularity-falls-20230816-p5dx0e.html
  11. "Support for Victorian Government and Premier Daniel Andrews plunges after cancellation of Commonwealth Games". Roy Morgan. 20 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  12. Smethurst, Annika (14 June 2023). "'Can't get much lower': Pesutto's Coalition sinks to new low in polls". The Age. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  13. "Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto's handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader". Roy Morgan. 23 May 2023. Retrieved 23 May 2023.
  14. Smethurst, Annika (24 April 2023). "Labor holds lead over state Coalition, but Deeming drama fails to make dent". The Age. Retrieved 24 April 2023.
  15. Smethurst, Annika (20 February 2023). "Support for Daniel Andrews rises as he marks 3000 days in office". The Age. Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  16. "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  17. "2022 State election results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
  18. Baxendale, Rachel (25 November 2022). "Victorian election: Despite a swing, Newspoll puts Daniel Andrews on track to win". The Australian. Archived from the original on 25 November 2022. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
  19. "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
  20. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/jacinta-allan-maintains-commanding-lead-over-coalition-but-gap-narrows-20231010-p5eb5f.html
  21. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-lead-stays-strong-but-andrews-personal-popularity-falls-20230816-p5dx0e.html
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.