2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2022, this was the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri.
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  Nixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% Spence: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Missouri |
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Democratic primary
Results
The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 269,865 | 86.0% | |
| Democratic | William Campbell | 25,721 | 8.2% | |
| Democratic | Clay Thunderhawk | 18,228 | 5.8% | |
| Total votes | 313,814 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
- Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist[1]
- Dave Spence, businessman[1]
- John Weiler[1]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Randles |
Fred Sauer |
Dave Spence |
John Weiler |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 4–5, 2012 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 15% | 12% | 42% | 3% | 29% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 15% | 1% | 41% | 3% | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 430 | ± 4.7% | 11% | 4% | 32% | 1% | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 15% | — | 11% | — | 74% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dave Spence | 333,578 | 59.9% | |
| Republican | Bill Randles | 90,651 | 16.3% | |
| Republican | Fred Sauer | 83,695 | 15.0% | |
| Republican | John Weiler | 49,006 | 8.8% | |
| Total votes | 556,930 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri[1]
Denied ballot access
- Leonard Steinman[1]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 2,500 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 2,500 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[4] | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[6] | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[7] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Dave Spence (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 53% | 45% | — | 2% |
| SurveyUSA | October 28–November 3, 2012 | 589 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | 5% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 19–21, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 1–3, 2012 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 35% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA | August 9–12, 2012 | 585 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 37% | 5% | 6% |
| Chilenski Strategies | August 8, 2012 | 663 | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 27% | — | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
- Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Peter Kinder |
Bill Randles |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 14% | 53% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Peter Kinder |
Someone else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 35% | 43% |
- General election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Bill Randles (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 35% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 32% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 29% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 24% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Matt Blunt (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
John Danforth (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 39% | 45% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Kenny Hulshof (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Peter Kinder (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 3–6, 2011 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Sarah Steelman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Jim Talent (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% |
Results
Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 1,494,056 | 54.77% | -3.63% | |
| Republican | Dave Spence | 1,160,265 | 42.53% | +3.04% | |
| Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 73,509 | 2.70% | +1.59% | |
| Write-in | 53 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,727,883 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
- Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
- Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
- Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
- Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
- Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
- St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
- Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
- Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
- Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
- Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
- Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
- Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
- Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
- Dent (Largest city: Salem)
- Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
- Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
- Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Maries (Largest city: Belle)
- Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
- Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
- Pulaski (Largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
- Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
- Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
- Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
- Texas (Largest city: Licking)
- Wright (Largest city: Mountain Grove)
- Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
By congressional district
Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[9]
| District | Nixon | Spence | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 81.38% | 13.21% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 50.67% | 47.37% | Todd Akin (112th Congress) |
| Ann Wagner (113th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 48.20% | 49.08% | Russ Carnahan (112th Congress) |
| Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 49.16% | 47.46% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 66.00% | 31.20% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 50.09% | 46.96% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 43.75% | 53.39% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 48.27% | 49.06% | Jo Ann Emerson |
See also
- 2012 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri
- 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri
- 2012 United States presidential election in Missouri
- 2012 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
- 2012 Missouri Attorney General election
- 2012 Missouri State Treasurer election
- 2012 Missouri Secretary of State election
- Political party strength in Missouri
References
- Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
- "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
- "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
- "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
- "Daily Kos".
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