Climate change in Bangladesh

From a prehistoric age, Bangladesh has faced numerous natural disasters in every decade but due to climate change, the intensity and extremity of disasters has increased. The country experiences small to medium scale floods, cyclones, flash floods, and landslides almost every year. Between 1980 and 2008, it experienced 219 natural disasters.[17] Flood is the most common form of disaster in Bangladesh. The country was affected by six major floods in the 19th century and 18 floods in the 20th century. Among them, 1987, 1985 and 1998 were the most catastrophic. Major cyclones that occurred in the 20th century were in the years 1960, 1961, 1963, 1970, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1995. The cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 140,000 people and 10 million people lost their homes. In the recent past, the country faced two major cyclones in 2007 and 2009.

The geographic location of Bangladesh makes it highly prone to natural disasters. Situated in between the intersection of Himalayan mountains in the North and the Bay of Bengal in the South, the country experiences 2 completely different environmental conditions leading to long monsoons and catastrophic natural disasters. With new phenomena like climate change and the rise of sea levels, the situation is getting even worse. The country is also very low and flat, having only 10% of its land more than a meter above sea level. Being crisscrossed by hundreds of rivers, and having one of the largest river systems in the whole world (the estuarial region of Padma, Meghna and Brahmaputra rivers),[18] Bangladesh frequently experiences gigantic cyclones and floods.

The Bangladesh Coastal Zone (BCZ) is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and subsequent storm surges, which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in Bangladesh due to climate change.[19] The area covers 47,201 km² with 19 districts and was home to approximately 37.2 million in 2011 and 43.8 million at present (2022).[19] The BCZ lags behind other parts of the country in socioeconomic development and struggles to cope with natural disasters and the gradual deterioration of the environment.[19]

Floods have a destructive power over the whole state of the country and it is directly related to the effects of climate change. As estimated by UNICEF more than 19 million children in Bangladesh will be threatened by this situation.[20]

Modelling work in 2022 showed only a very small poverty exposure bias (which is when poorer populations may suffer disproportionately from disasters) of potentially flooded households when compared to non-flooded households in the coastal zones. This is in contrast to some of the literature in Bangladesh that did find an exposure bias for river flooding. This could be explained from the random nature of cyclones which makes the occurrence of an exposure bias less likely, as it less dependent on long-term structural conditions that might determine the location of a household (e.g. land prices).[19]

Population density and height above sea level in Bangladesh (2010)

Low-lying coastal regions, such as Bangladesh, are vulnerable to sea level rise[21] and the increased occurrence of intense, extreme weather conditions such as the cyclones of 2007–2009, as well as the melting of polar ice.[21] To address the sea level rise threat in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 has been launched in 2018.[10][11]

Existing challenges in the Bangladesh Coastal Zone are likely to be exacerbated by the effects of climate change and associated sea-level rise, with 62 percent of coastal lands being less than 3 m above sea level.[19]

Bangladesh is one of the countries that contributes the least to greenhouse emissions, yet has one of the highest vulnerability conditions to global warming, prone to a significant number of climate related disasters. There are serious consequences from the impact of climate change on different sectors of the economy in the country, mainly but not exclusively concentrated in the agriculture sector.

In most countries like Bangladesh, yields from rain-fed agriculture was predicted to be reduced to 50% by 2020. For a country with increasing population and hunger, this will have an adverse effect on food security. Although the effects of climate change are highly variable, by 2030, South Asia could lose 10% of rice and maize yields, while neighboring states like Pakistan could experience a 50% reduction in crop yield.

As a result of all this, Bangladesh would need to prepare for long-term adaptation, which could be as drastic as changing sowing dates due to seasonal variations, introducing different varieties and species, to practicing novel water supply and irrigation systems.[24]^: 230 Bangladeshi farmers have been adapting to rising water levels by making creative floating gardens which mesh water hyacinth plants with bamboo and fertilizer to provide a sturdy floating platform for agriculture, according to climate researcher Alizé Carrère.[25]

Being an agrarian society, people of Bangladesh are greatly dependent on various forms of agriculture. It is the main source of rural job in the country having over 87% people somewhat related to agri-based economy.[26] In 2016, according to World Bank, agriculture contributed to 14.77% of country's GDP. A steady increase in agricultural production with the use of modern equipment and scientific methods, agriculture has been a key driver to eradicate rural poverty in Bangladesh. The risk of sea level rising and global warming is the biggest challenge not only to country's agricultural improvement but also the success on poverty reduction.

Agriculture in Bangladesh

As agricultural production is heavily related with temperature and rainfall, the current change in weather conditions is creating negative impact on crop yielding and the total area of arable land has been decreased. According to a report published by the Ministry of Environment and Forests - GoB, 1 degree Celsius increase in maximum temperature at vegetative, reproductive and ripening stages there was a decrease in Aman rice production by 2.94, 53.06 and 17.28 tons respectively.[27] Another major threat deriving from this factor is water salinity which directly affects rice production especially in the coastal part of Bangladesh. The same report state that, the country will lose 12-16% of its land if the sea level rises by 1 meter. These challenges lead to food scarcity and insecurity for the huge populace of the country. There are several adaptation measures which are practised to cope up with the abnormal behaviour of climate such as: resilient varieties of crops, diversification, change in cropping pattern, mixed cropping, improved irrigation facility, adopting soil conservation, agroforestry and so on.[28]

A number of these measures have already been adapted by the government of Bangladesh and well practised throughout the country. The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute has introduced a varieties of saline tolerant rices like BR-11, BR-23, BRRI rice -28, BRRI rice -41, BRRI rice -47, BRRI rice -53 and BRRI rice -54. In the drought prone areas, BR-11, BR-23, BRRI rice -28, BRRI rice -41, BRRI rice -47, BRRI rice -53 and BRRI rice -54 are used which take short time to cultivate. To make the best and efficient utilization of water the Department of Agricultural Extension has introduced 'Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).[27] The government also provide financial support to the affected farmers from different disasters and hazards

Rice growing at the village, Bangladesh.

With a larger population facing losses in arable lands, climate change poses an acute risk to the already malnourished population of Bangladesh. Although the country has managed to increase its production of rice since the nation's birth—from 10 million metric tons (MT) to over 30 MT—around 15.2 percent of the population is undernourished.[29] Now more than five million hectares of land are irrigated, almost fourfold that in 1990. Even though modern rice varieties have been introduced in three-fourths of the total rice irrigation area, the sudden shift in population increase is putting strains on the production. Climate change threatens the agricultural economy, which, although it counts for just 20 percent of GDP, contributes to over half the labor force. In 2007, after a series of floods and cyclone Sidr, food security was severely threatened. Given the country's infrastructure and disaster response mechanisms, crop yields worsened. The loss of rice production was estimated at around two million metric tons (MT), which could potentially feed 10 million people. This was the single most important catalyst of the 2008 price increases, which led to around 15 million people going without much food. This was further worsened by cyclone Aila. In March 2017, extreme pre-monsoon rains and flash floods damaged 220,000 hectares of rice crops. Rice imports increased to three million tonnes from less than 100,000 tonnes the year before.[30] A December 2018 study published by the American Meteorological Society found that climate change doubled the likelihood of the extreme pre-monsoon rainfall.[31]

Children crossing a flooded farmland in Northern Bangladesh in August 2017. Children and their future access to food and farmland is a critical part of the risk faced by Bangladesh.

Given the frequent climate change-based catastrophes, Bangladesh needs to enhance food security by drafting and implementing new policies such as the 2006 National Sausage Policy. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) supported this policy through the "National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program" (NFPCSP). There is also an initiative for the start of a "Food Security Country Investment Plan" enabling the country to secure around US$52 million under the "Global Agriculture and Food Security Program" (GAFSP), making it Asia's first recipient. More work and better implementation from the government is necessary for activities to reach fruitful outcomes. Already, 11 ministries and governmental agencies are involved in this integrated endeavor. In the aftermath of the "East Pakistan Coastal Embankment plan" (CEP) in the mid-20th century, Bangladesh has recently started work on the "Master Plan for the South". The southern coastal area is vulnerable to the ill-effects of global climate. Crops, livestock, and fisheries of the southern delta are threatened. There are plans for a US$3 billion multi-purpose bridge named "Pad ma" to transform the agricultural sector in the region. The government estimates a GDP increase of around two percent as a result of the project.

In an effort to achieve middle income country status by 2021, the government is focusing on increasing agriculture production, productivity, water management techniques, surface water infrastructure, irrigation, fisheries, and promoting poultry and dairy development. Bio fuels fit into this scenario by providing energy for agriculture. In 2006, the Ministry of Agriculture provided a 30 percent subsidy to diesel to power irrigation for farming, further proposing a 7,750 million BDT disbursement to help almost a million farmers with fuel.[24]^: 354

Deaths cause by Natural disaster in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2017

Climate change has caused many citizens of Bangladesh to migrate and by 2013 already 6.5 million people had been displaced. Poor and other vulnerable population groups have been affected disproportionally. Dhaka as well as local urban centers are mostly the destination of migration caused by climate change. This leads to an increased pressure on urban infrastructure and services, especially around health and education and creates a heightened risk of conflicts.[32]

An increased number of floods, due to reduced river gradients, higher rainfall in the Ganges-Meghna-Brahmaputra river basins, and the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, is considered the major reason for migration in the context of climate change in Bangladesh over all. These floods not only lead to the erosion of arable land, but also impact negatively the other income opportunities and often disrupt the livelihood patterns of whole families.[33] In the northern regions of Bangladesh drought plays a major role in displacement of persons, in the South rising sea levels and cyclones are reasons for migration.[33]^: 166

Various countries have pledged to provide funding for adaptation and mitigation in developing nations, such as Bangladesh. The accord committed up to US$30 billion of immediate short term funding over the 2010–2012 period from developed to developing countries to support their action in climate change mitigation. This funding is available for developing nations to build their capacity to reduce emissions and responds to effects of climate change. Furthermore, this funding will be balanced between mitigation and infrastructure adaptation in various sectors including forestry, science, technology and capacity building. Moreover, the Copenhagen Accord (COP 15) also pledges US$100 million of public and private finance by 2020, mostly to developing nations.

Another misconception is that this accord will divert funding from poverty reduction. The private sector alone contributes more than 85 percent of current investments for a low carbon economy. In order to maximize any future contributions from this sector, the public sector needs to overcome the political and bureaucratic barriers the private sector has to face towards a low carbon future.[24]^: 72

Besides the consequences from the impact of climate change, the whole country is yet affected by the results of maladaptation processes. Most of the aid and efforts put in alleviating the systems from vulnerability factors, have being object of bad management resulting in accentuating ethnic hierarchies in some communities, trapping the poor, powerless and displaced in a patronage system, leading to increased human insecurity and intensified violent conflict.[38]

Bangladesh loses land to rising sea levels, but gains land from sediment deposits. The effects of sea level rise and land accretion in Bangladesh are highly regional and variegated. Natural land accretion, paired with targeted policies to secure such land for farming use has the potential to partially mitigate the effects of land lost.[39]

The Bangladesh National Adaptation Programme Action - NAPA in its action plan have collected, structured and ranked a series of climate adaptation needs and vulnerabilities, as well as sector-specific costs and benefits. These proposed actions have considered poverty reduction and security of livelihoods with a gender perspective as the most important set of criteria for prioritization of adaptation needs and activities.[40]

Bangladesh is also supported by different international organizations such as United Nations, World Bank, and so on. With help from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Bangladesh developed a flood action plan initiating a culture of disaster management and risk reduction. UNDP also supported Bangladesh to establish the Disaster Management Bureau.[36]

Flooded village after 1991 cyclone

Bangladesh is prone to flooding and waterlogging because of its location as a river delta.[41] In 2012, it was labeled a Least Developed Country by the United Nations, with high rates of poverty and weak government, meaning it is especially vulnerable to natural disasters.[42][43] It is densely populated and about 63 percent of its population was working in the agriculture, forestry, or fishing sectors in 2010.[42] Slightly less than half of Bangladesh's population is women and, in 2001, 80 percent of women lived in rural areas.[43] Bangladeshi women are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they have limited mobility and power in society.[41] Research shows that, after the cyclone and flooding of 1991, Bangladeshi women aged 20–44 had a much higher death rate than men of the same age: 71 per 1000, compared to 15 per 1000 for men.[43] Even if a cyclone warning is issued, many women die because they must wait at home for their relatives to return before they can seek shelter.[43]

As climate change progresses, access to and salinization of water sources are becoming problems in Bangladesh.[43] When there is a lack of drinking water, women are responsible for procuring it regardless of the distance they must travel or the terrain they must cover.[43] During natural disasters, male unemployment rises.[43] When men become unemployed, women's responsibilities increase because they must secure and manage income and resources on top of feeding the family and caring for children and the elderly.[43] As the number of men at home without income or occupation rises, more women report mental and physical abuse by their male relatives.[43] To cope with climatic change, women store matches, food for the family, fodder for the livestock, medicine, and fuel sources in safe places in case of disaster.[43] They also teach their children skills such as swimming to prepare them for crisis.[43] The global relief agency CARE believes that climate-resilient jobs such as duck rearing can help increase Bangladeshi women's resilience to climate change.[41]

Since the disasters of 1991, Bangladeshi women are more involved in disaster response decision-making, through local committees and community organizations established by the government and NGOs.[41][43] As part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Bangladesh published a Poverty Reduction Strategy paper in 2005 that incorporated gender mainstreaming into its climate change adaptation plan, but as of 2008 those goals and policies were not fully implemented.[43]

In 2018, the New York WILD film festival gave the "Best Short Film" award to a 12-minute documentary, titled Adaptation Bangladesh: Sea Level Rise. The film explores the way in which Bangladeshi farmers are preventing their farms from flooding by building floating gardens made of water hyacinth and bamboo.[44]

Bangladesh also has a large network of NGOs all through the country who are highly active in supporting the people vulnerable from climate change.

Various CSOs and NGOs have been helping the Bangladeshi government in policy formulations. Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), SUSHILON, Forum of Environmental Journalists of Bangladesh (FEJB) are some of the CSOs and NGOs that have been actively coordinating the government of Bangladesh in recent years in formulating climate change policies. [45]