2009 Honduran general election

A pre-election poll conducted between 23 and 29 August 2009 by COIMER & OP showed a relative majority (41%) who would not declare a voting preference or would not vote in favour of any of the six candidates.[19] By mid-October this had dropped to a minority (29%) according to a CID-Gallup poll.[20] Porfirio Lobo's support increased from 28% in August to 37% in October, and Elvin Santos' support increased from 14% to 21%. According to the two polls, Carlos H. Reyes' support dropped from 12% to 6%, while the other three candidates increased from 1–2% support in August to 2–3% in October.[19] A popularity rating question in the COIMER & OP August poll, concerning positive, average and negative opinions towards presidential candidates and other prominent people, found that Porfirio Lobo had more negative than positive popularity (34% versus 30%), as did Elvin Santos (45% versus 19%) and the de facto President Roberto Micheletti (56% versus 16%) and César Ham (20% versus 16%). Carlos H. Reyes had more positive than negative ratings (25% versus 14%), as did de jure President Manuel Zelaya (45% versus 26%).[19]

Porfirio Lobo Sosa, popularly known as Pepe Lobo, of the opposition conservative National Party was elected to succeed Micheletti. Early reports gave Lobo over 50% of the popular vote, with Elvin Santos the closest opponent with around 35%.[34] While some regional nations did not accept the election as valid, others including the United States have supported its legitimacy.[35] While exiled President Manuel Zelaya called for a boycott of the election, turnout ranged from around 30% in poorer areas to 70% in more wealthy communities. Lobo hinted that charges against Zelaya would be dropped.[36]

Hundreds of people made a noisy drive-by protest in Tegucigalpa on 1 December to symbolise their rejection of the elections and to highlight that the turnout estimates of over 60% were inaccurate.[39] Zelaya's aide Carlos Reina called for the elections to be cancelled.[39]

In early November 2009, Dagoberto Suazo of the National Resistance Front against the coup d'État in Honduras asked for the international community to continue to refuse to recognise the planned 29 November elections.[37] Marvin Ponce, a member of Congress from the Democratic Unification Party, said that it was not possible to hold the elections in the aftermath of the coup d'état.[37] Bertha Oliva of COFADEH criticised the United States government for stating that Honduras could hold "free elections in less than three weeks" when "Hondurans [were being] subjected to arbitrary arrest, the closure of independent media, police beatings, torture and even killings by security forces".[38] Oliva claimed that it was not possible to have an election campaign when the right to freedom of assembly, freedom of movement and press freedom were absent. She called for elections to be delayed until at least three months after human rights and democracy are restored.[38]

On 6 November 2009, following the failure of Micheletti and Zelaya to together create a "unity cabinet", Zelaya called for a boycott of the 29 November election.[40]

On 9 November 2009, following a national meeting of leaders of the National Resistance Front against the coup d'état, presidential candidate Carlos H. Reyes declared the withdrawal of his candidacy, on the grounds of not legitimising the coup d'état and fraudulent elections.[15][16][18] At the time of Reyes' withdrawal, the Honduran newspapers El Tiempo and La Tribuna showed Reyes' right hand in a plaster cast[15][16] due to an injury sustained during his 30 July beating by Honduran security forces under the control of the de facto Micheletti government.[13][14] At least 30–40 candidates from various parties and independent candidates, including at least one National Party candidate, Mario Medrano in San Manuel, Cortés, also withdraw in protest.[41] Mario Medrano stated that he withdrew his candidature in order not to legitimise the coup d'état, that this was independent of party membership, and that anyone elected could be removed [if the coup d'état remained legitimate].[41]

Canadian investigative journalist Jesse Freeston released a series of three videos before and after the elections them of being "coup laundering". In the final video, "Honduran Elections Exposed", Freeston separately interviews two members of the Honduran Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The engineer in charge of the count says that 49% of Hondurans had turned out to vote. Meanwhile, the spokesman for the tribunal told Freeston that roughly 65% had turned out. Freeston concludes that nobody knows how many Hondurans turned out, since all four major international election observers (UN, EU, Carter Center, and OAS) all refused to participate.[42] The videos also exposed the police attack on an anti-election protest in San Pedro Sula, the arrest of a man for possession of anti-election posters in Tegucigalpa, a letter the military sent to all the mayors in Honduras seeking contact information of anyone involved in the National People's Resistance Front, the shutting down of anti-coup media outlets Radio Globo and Canal 36, and the targeted assassinations of anti-coup community organizers.[43]

International response to the 2009 Honduran elections

  Honduras

  Countries recognizing the elections

  Countries not recognizing the elections

  No response.

Mercosur declared on 24 July 2009 that it would not recognise the results of the planned November elections or any other elections organised under Micheletti.[4] President Cristina Kirchner of Argentina stated, "We must condemn any benevolent coup attempt, that is, when through a civilian-military coup legitimate authorities are ousted followed by attempts to legalize the situation by calling new elections. This would be the death kiss for the OAS democratic charter and turning the Mercosur democratic charter in mere fiction".[4] On 10 August, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) also declared that it would not recognise the results of elections held while the de facto Micheletti government remained in power.[5] On 17 August, President Felipe Calderón of Mexico, together with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, made a similar statement.[6] On September 3, the US State Department issued a statement revoking all non-humanitarian assistance to Honduras and said, of the November 29 elections "At this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections".[7]

The U.S. has since changed position and announced that it will recognize the results of the election as a part of the San Jose-Tegucigalpa Accord.[44] Prior to the elections, the OAS advanced a resolution that would have refused to recognize its results.[45] Initially, the U.S. administration pushed for the return of Zelaya, however, subsequently back-tracked on a threat not to recognize the election.[46] The OAS resolution was ultimately blocked by the United States.[45] The U.S. State Department rejected appeals by other Organization of American States (OAS) member nations to condemn what many perceived to be a fraudulent election and, instead, declared the contest "free, fair and transparent."[47] The International Republican Institute, an organization linked to the United States Republican Party, also declared the elections had been "free of violence and overt acts of intimidation".[46] The victory of Porfirio Lobo Sosa was quickly recognized by the United States, which increased military and police aid to the government, despite much of Latin America continuing to view him as an illegal pretender to the Honduran presidency.[48]

In the days preceding the elections, Israel, Italy, Colombia, Panama, Peru, Germany, Costa Rica and Japan also announced their intentions to recognize the results of the elections.[49][50][51][52]

On 30 November at the 19th Ibero-American Summit in Estoril, Portugal the governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Spain, Uruguay, and Venezuela announced they would not recognize the elections whereas Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama said that they would.[53] On 7 December the five Mercosur member states once again ratified their decision of not recognizing the election of Porfirio Lobo.[54]