2022 United States Senate election in Colorado

The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third full term, defeating Republican businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009,[1] Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016.[2][3]

See also: 2022 United States Senate elections

2022 United States Senate election in Colorado
November 8, 2022
 
Nominee Michael Bennet Joe O'Dea
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,397,170 1,031,693
Percentage 55.88% 41.26%
Bennet:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
O'Dea:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Michael Bennet
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Michael Bennet
Democratic

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Bennet won by a wide margin of nearly 15 points, significantly outperforming his polling. His margin is the highest for a Democrat in a Senate election in Colorado since 1974. This was the first time in Bennet's Senate career where he received a majority of the vote.

Democratic convention

Candidates

Bennet was appointed in 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter following the resignation of Ken Salazar to become the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama. Bennet was then narrowly elected in 2010 for his first full term. In his most recent election in 2016, he was re-elected to a second term with 49.97% of the vote over Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn.

Due to some of his centrist positions, such as his opposition to Medicare for All and support for fracking, Bennet faced a potential challenge from the left, particularly from Joe Salazar, a former state representative. Salazar ultimately opted to run for Colorado's State Senate, and thus Bennet was easily renominated at the Democratic convention.[4]

Nominee

Eliminated at convention
  • Karen Breslin, lawyer and university instructor[6]

Declined

Endorsements
Michael Bennet
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
  • Jared Polis, 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2009–2019)[11]
  • Bill Ritter, 41st Governor of Colorado (2007–2011)[11]
  • Roy Romer, 39th Governor of Colorado (1987–1999)[11]
U.S. Representatives
State legislator
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Bennet (incumbent) 516,985 100.0%
Total votes 516,985 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Originally, a wide field of candidates declared their intention to run for the Republican nomination, with former Olympian Eli Bremer being thought as the best candidate to take on Bennet. However, instead of gathering the required number of signatures to be placed on the primary ballot, Bremer and most of the other candidates sought to get 30% of the delegate vote at the Colorado GOP convention in April 2022. Due to the wide field of candidates, delegate support was split, with the only candidate to achieve the threshold being State Representative Ron Hanks, while Debora Flora, a radio show host, missed the ballot by a single percentage point, getting 29% of the vote, and Bremer getting third place with 15% of the vote.[22]

With the other candidates eliminated, Ron Hanks and construction CEO Joe O'Dea were the only two candidates on the primary ballot. The contrast between the two Republicans was stark, with Hanks, who supported a complete ban on abortion and echoed former President Donald Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 Presidential election, getting pitted against O'Dea, a moderate who supports LGBT rights, some abortion rights, and did not believe in widespread voter fraud.

Hanks was considered the underdog due to O'Dea consistently outraising him, however he received a boost when Democrats began spending over $4 million to influence the Republican primary, launching ads attempting to drag down O'Dea due to his prior support of Democratic candidates, and prop up Hanks as "too conservative". This was done in the hopes that Hanks would be an easier opponent for Bennet to beat than O'Dea, who can appeal to moderates.[23] This attempt to interfere in the GOP primary was denounced by numerous former Colorado Democratic officials, including former Governor Roy Romer, and former Senators Mark Udall, Tim Wirth, and Gary Hart, who previously mounted unsuccessful attempts to win the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988. [24] Ultimately, despite the boost from the Democrats and his attempts to receive the endorsement of Donald Trump, Hanks would lose the nomination to O'Dea by 9 points. He performed best in the rural parts of Colorado, which are typically the most conservative counties that typically vote Republican in landslide margins in general elections, while O'Dea performed best in urban counties, such as Denver.[25]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Erik Aadland (withdrawn)
U.S. Representative
Eli Bremer (eliminated)
Executive Branch official
U.S. Senator
  • Ben Nighthorse Campbell, former U.S. Senator from Colorado (1993–2005)[45] (switched endorsement to O’Dea after Bremer was eliminated)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
County officials
Gino Campana (eliminated)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Deborah Flora (eliminated)
U.S. Senator
State official
U.S. Representative
Joe O'Dea
U.S. Senator
Federal officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
  • 4 county commissioners[64]
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
Hanks		 Joe
O'Dea		 Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 15–20, 2022 400 (LV) ± 6.0% 14% 38% 47%

Results
Results by county:
  O'Dea
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Hanks
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe O'Dea 345,060 54.44%
Republican Ron Hanks 288,483 45.51%
Republican Daniel Hendricks (write-in) 302 0.05%
Total votes 633,845 100.0%

General election

In recent years, Colorado has started voting more Democratic in the federal level and the shift was largely contributed to the left-wing shift in the growing Denver metropolitan area, with President Joe Biden winning the state by 13.5% in the 2020 election, almost nine points to the left of the national result of around 4.9%. Prevailing in 2010, a year where Colorado was considered a swing state and Democrats performed very poorly, Bennet had a generally strong electoral history. He also outperformed Hillary Clinton on the same ballot in 2016. Ahead of 2022, Bennet was generally favored to win, though polling showed him as potentially vulnerable, largely due to the state of the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings.[68] Colorado had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Cory Gardner in 2014, another very strong year for Republicans nationwide and while Colorado was still considered a swing state, even then Gardner only won narrowly. Bennet ultimately won reelection by a comfortable 14.6 point margin, outperforming Biden's victory two years prior and his own polling averages. Bennet also flipped three counties he had lost in his 2016 re-election bid, flipping Grand County by a narrow 1.1% and Chaffee County, and Garfield County by wide margins. However, O'Dea did narrowly flip Conejos County by a slim 1%. [69]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[70] Lean D August 18, 2022
Inside Elections[71] Likely D June 29, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] Likely D March 1, 2022
Politico[73] Lean D August 12, 2022
RCP[74] Tossup November 4, 2022
Fox News[75] Lean D May 12, 2022
DDHQ[76] Likely D July 20, 2022
538[77] Likely D August 18, 2022
The Economist[78] Likely D September 7, 2022

Endorsements
Michael Bennet (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
  • Polly Baca, former state senator from the 25th district (1979–1987) and former state representative from the 34th district (1974–1979)[11]
Labor Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Joe O'Dea (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
  • 4 county commissioners[64]
  • 20 current and former mayors[96]
Individuals
Newspapers
Brian Peotter (L)
State legislators
Declined to endorse
U.S. Presidents

Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Joe
O'Dea (R)		 Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics October 26 – November 5, 2022 November 7, 2022 50.0% 44.3% 5.7% Bennet +5.7
FiveThirtyEight July 26 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 51.3% 42.9% 5.8% Bennet +8.4
270towin November 1–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 51.0% 43.4% 6.6% Bennet +6.6
Average 50.8% 43.5% 5.7% Bennet +7.3
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Joe
O'Dea (R)		 Brian
Peotter (L)		 Other Undecided
co/efficient (R) November 3–7, 2022 856 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 43% – 3%[lower-alpha 3] 3%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–5, 2022 1,983 (LV) ± 2.0% 51% 44% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 4] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 46% 2% 1% 3%
Emerson College October 26–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 2% 3%[lower-alpha 5] 5%
51% 43% 2% 3%[lower-alpha 6] –
co/efficient (R) October 24–25, 2022 826 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 34% – 6%[lower-alpha 7] 10%
CU Boulder/YouGov October 11–19, 2022 709 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 42% – 2%[lower-alpha 8] –
Civiqs October 15–18, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.0% 54% 41% – 2%[lower-alpha 9] 3%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 6–11, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 38% 7% – 7%
52% 42% – – 6%
Marist College October 3–6, 2022 1,127 (RV) ± 4.7% 48% 41% – 2%[lower-alpha 10] 9%
983 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 43% – 2%[lower-alpha 11] 7%
Data for Progress (D) October 3–6, 2022 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 41% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 12] 5%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 3] September 20–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% – 4%[lower-alpha 13] 5%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies September 18–26, 2022 1,060 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% – – 18%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 20–24, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 43% 4% <1%[lower-alpha 14] 5%
Emerson College September 18–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% – 4%[lower-alpha 15] 14%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 30–31, 2022 782 (V) ± 3.5% 46% 35% 7% – 12%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 22–25, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 47% – – 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 15–19, 2022 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 42% 5% 1% 5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) July 24–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 40% – – 12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 49% 36% – – 14%
Hypothetical polling
Michael Bennet vs. Ron Hanks
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Ron
Hanks (R)		 Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 50% 37% 13%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 19–24, 2021 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 52% 34% 13%
Michael Bennet vs. Eli Bremer
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Eli
Bremer (R)		 Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 19–24, 2021 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 35% 17%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 5] September 9–12, 2021 742 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 32% 22%
Michael Bennet vs. Gino Campana
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Gino
Campana (R)		 Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D) April 6–8, 2022 612 (V) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Michael Bennet vs. Lauren Boebert
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Lauren
Boebert (R)		 Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 17–23, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 38% 11%
Michael Bennet vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived June 16, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 37% 14%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 6] January 12–13, 2022 630 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 46% 9%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 17–23, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 40% 12%
Michael Bennet vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Bennet (D)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) July 24–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 42% 14%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 5] September 9–12, 2021 742 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 42% 14%

Debates
2022 United States Senate general election in Colorado debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Michael Bennet Joe O'Dea
1 Oct. 28, 2022 Colorado State University Youtube P P

Results
2022 United States Senate election in Colorado[102]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Michael Bennet (incumbent) 1,397,170 55.88% +5.91%
Republican Joe O'Dea 1,031,693 41.26% -3.05%
Libertarian Brian Peotter 43,534 1.74% -1.88%
Unity T.J. Cole 16,379 0.66% +0.32%
Approval Voting Frank Atwood 11,354 0.45% N/A
Write-in 71 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,500,201 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bennet won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[103]

District Bennet O'Dea Representative
1st 80% 18% Diana DeGette
2nd 69% 28% Joe Neguse
3rd 48% 49% Lauren Boebert
4th 40% 57% Ken Buck
5th 44% 52% Doug Lamborn
6th 60% 38% Jason Crow
7th 57% 40% Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress)
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress)
8th 50% 46% Yadira Caraveo

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. "Someone else" with 3%
  4. "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. Atwood (AV) with 1%; Cole (U) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 2%; Atwood (AV) with 1%; Cole (U) with 1%
  7. "Someone else" with 6%
  8. "Other" with 2%
  9. "Someone else" with 2%
  10. "Another party's candidate" with 2%
  11. "Another party's candidate" with 2%
  12. "Another candidate" with 1%
  13. "Someone else" with 4%
  14. "Other" with 0%
  15. "Someone else" with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by O'Dea's campaign
  2. This poll was sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado, a liberal nonprofit organization.
  3. This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  4. This poll was sponsored by the Republican Attorneys General Association
  5. This poll was sponsored by Bremer's campaign
  6. This poll was sponsored by Ready Colorado

References
  1. Alexander Burns (January 2, 2009). "Bennet to replace Salazar in Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  2. "Colorado - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  3. "Official Certified Results November 8, 2016 General Election". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  4. "'This is a Bernie state': Joe Salazar considering run against Bennet in 2022 Democratic primary". January 23, 2021.
  5. Wingerter, Justin (November 3, 2020). "Michael Bennet says he won't be Joe Biden's education secretary". The Denver Post.
  6. Burness, Alex; Wingerter, Justin (August 12, 2021). "The Spot: Heidi Ganahl all but says she's running for governor". The Denver Post. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved September 3, 2021.
  7. Luning, Ernest (January 23, 2021). "'This is a Bernie state': Joe Salazar considering run against Bennet in 2022 Democratic primary". The Colorado Springs Gazette.
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  9. "Democrat Joe Salazar files to run for state Senate in open Adams County district". November 5, 2021.
  10. Ernest Luning (March 8, 2021). "Michael Bennet lands endorsements from environmental, foreign policy groups". Colorado Politics.
  11. Ernest Luning (May 10, 2021). "Michael Bennet unveils long list of current, former officials endorsing his re-election campaign". Colorado Politics.
  12. "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World.
  13. Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
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  21. "State primary certificate - Statewide Amended Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State.
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  24. "Democratic leaders call party mates' tactics to boost Ron Hanks, others during primary 'unethical'". August 2022.
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  28. Joe O’Dea beats Ron Hanks in Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, Colorado Sun, 28 June 2022.
  29. In debate between Senate hopefuls Ron Hanks and Joe O’Dea, it’s hardcore vs. softcore, Colorado Sun, 22 June 2022.
  30. U.S. Senate candidate Joe O’Dea believes abortions should be legal through 20 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions after, Colorado Sun, 19 August 2022.
  31. $5 million in TV ads attacking Joe O’Dea in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race are hitting the airwaves, Colorado Sun, 23 September 2022.
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  46. Luning, Ernest (April 5, 2022). "Colorado US Senate hopeful Eli Bremer endorsed by Indiana Republican Jim Banks". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  47. Ernest Luning (November 5, 2021). "California GOP Rep. Mike Garcia endorses Eli Bremer in Colorado Senate race". Colorado Politics.
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  50. Luning, Ernest (March 8, 2022). "Eli Bremer adds batch of endorsements from current, former GOP legislators in US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
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  52. Luning, Ernest (March 17, 2022). "Republican US Senate candidate Eli Bremer endorsed by 71 current, former county commissioners". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  53. Luning, Ernest (November 19, 2021). "Former Interior Secretary David Bernhardt endorses Gino Campana in Colorado Senate race". Coloradopolitics.com. Archived from the original on November 19, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  54. Luning, Ernest (December 1, 2021). "Trump homeland security advisor endorses Gino Campana in Colorado's US Senate race". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  55. "Bennet Challenger Gino Campana Adds Kellyanne Conway As Senior Advisor". MSN.
  56. Luning, Ernest (January 4, 2022). "Bob Schaffer endorses Republican Gino Campana in Colorado's US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  57. Luning, Ernest (February 19, 2022). "Colorado's Republican US Senate candidates introduce themselves to voters". Coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
  58. Luning, Ernest (April 8, 2022). "Ted Cruz throws weight behind Republican Deborah Flora in Colorado's US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  59. Luning, Ernest (December 2021). "Jane Norton endorses Deborah Flora in Colorado's Republican US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved December 1, 2021.
  60. "Allen West Endorses Deborah Flora for U.S. Senate". February 16, 2022. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  61. Luning, Ernest (June 1, 2022). "Ben Nighthorse Campbell throws support behind Joe O'Dea in Colorado's Republican US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  62. Luning, Ernest (May 21, 2022). "Former Interior secretaries Bernhardt, Norton back Joe O'Dea in Republican US Senate primary". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  63. Luning, Ernest (February 4, 2022). "Former US Attorney Jason Dunn backs Bennet challenger Joe O'Dea". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  64. Luning, Ernest (May 17, 2022). "Republican US Senate candidate Joe O'Dea endorsed by slew of current, former Colorado officials". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
  65. Luning, Ernest (May 11, 2022). "Former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens endorses Joe O'Dea in US Senate primary". coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved May 14, 2022.
  66. Luning, Ernest (March 22, 2022). "Current, former Colorado officials endorse Republican US Senate candidate Joe O'Dea". www.coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
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