2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Not to be confused with 2020 Kentucky House of Representatives election.
For related races, see 2020 United States House of Representatives elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
November 3, 2020
All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 5 1
Seats won 5 1
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 1,363,964 735,419
Percentage 64.46% 34.76%
Swing Increase 4.87% Decrease 4.29%
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Overview
District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1246,32974.99%82,14125.01%00.00%328,470100.0%Republican hold
District 2255,73570.96%94,64326.26%10,0212.78%360,399100.0%Republican hold
District 3136,42537.16%230,67262.84%00.00%367,097100.0%Democratic hold
District 4256,61367.09%125,89632.91%00.00%382,509100.0%Republican hold
District 5250,91484.21%47,05615.79%00.00%297,970100.0%Republican hold
District 6216,94857.32%155,01140.96%6,4911.72%378,450100.0%Republican hold
Total1,363,96464.46%735,41934.76%16,5120.78%2,115,895100.0%
Popular vote
Republican
 
 64.46%
Democratic
 
 34.76%
Other
 
 0.78%
House seats
Republican
 
 83.33%
Democratic
 
 16.67%

District 1
2020 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election
 
Nominee James Comer James Rhodes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 246,329 82,141
Percentage 75.0% 25.0%
County results
Comer:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

James Comer
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

James Comer
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 1st congressional district

The 1st district takes in Western Kentucky, including Paducah, Hopkinsville, Murray, and Henderson. The incumbent is Republican James Comer, who was re-elected with 68.6% of the vote.[1]

Declared
Declared
  • James Rhodes[2]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[9] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Kentucky's 1st congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican James Comer (incumbent) 246,329 75.0
Democratic James Rhodes 82,141 25.0
Total votes 328,470 100.0
Republican hold

District 2
2020 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election
 
Nominee Brett Guthrie Hank Linderman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 255,735 94,643
Percentage 70.9% 26.3%
County results
Guthrie:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Brett Guthrie
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Brett Guthrie
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses west-central Kentucky, taking in Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Elizabethtown. The incumbent is Republican Brett Guthrie, who was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Declared

Primary results
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brett Guthrie (incumbent) 65,313 88.6
Republican Kathleen Free 8,380 11.4
Total votes 73,693 100.0
Declared
  • Hank Linderman, nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2018[11]

Libertarian Party
  • Robert Lee Perry

Populist Party
  • Lewis Carter

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[9] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Kentucky's 2nd congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brett Guthrie (incumbent) 255,735 70.9
Democratic Hank Linderman 94,643 26.3
Libertarian Robert Lee Perry 7,588 2.1
Populist Lewis Carter 2,431 0.7
Write-in 2 0.0
Total votes 360,399 100.0
Republican hold

District 3
2020 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election
 
Nominee John Yarmuth Rhonda Palazzo
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 230,672 137,425
Percentage 62.7% 37.3%
County result
Yarmuth:      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

John Yarmuth
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Representative

John Yarmuth
Democratic

See also: Kentucky's 3rd congressional district

The 3rd district encompasses nearly all of the Louisville metropolitan area. The incumbent is Democrat John Yarmuth, who was re-elected with 62.1% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Declared
Declared
  • Mike Craven, activist and candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2018[14]
  • Waymen Eddings, businessman[14]
  • Rhonda Palazzo, realtor and candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2018[14]

Primary results
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rhonda Palazzo 19,806 42.4
Republican Mike Craven 19,676 42.1
Republican Waymen Eddings 7,275 15.5
Total votes 46,757 100.0

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Safe D July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe D June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Safe D July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Safe D April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Safe D June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Safe D June 9, 2020
Niskanen[9] Safe D June 7, 2020

Results
Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Yarmuth (incumbent) 230,672 62.7
Republican Rhonda Palazzo 137,425 37.3
Total votes 368,097 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4
2020 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election
 
Nominee Thomas Massie Alexandra Owensby
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 256,613 125,896
Percentage 67.1% 32.9%
County results
Massie:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Thomas Massie
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Thomas Massie
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 4th congressional district

The 4th district is located in the northeastern part of the state along the Ohio River, including the suburbs of Cincinnati and a small part of Louisville. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Massie, who was re-elected with 62.2% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Declared
Declined
  • Kim Moser, state representative[17]

Endorsements
Thomas Massie (R)
US Senators

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Thomas
Massie		 Todd
McMurty		 Kim
Moser		 Undecided
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] June 10–11, 2020 411 (LV) ± 4.9% 77% 11% – 12%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] April 27–28, 2020 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 70% 13% – 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] February 4–6, 2020 300 (V) ± 5.66% 71% 3% – –
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 3] July 8–9, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 64% – 10% 26%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Thomas
Massie		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 3] July 8–9, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 8% 43%[lower-alpha 2]

Primary results
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thomas Massie (incumbent) 68,591 81.0
Republican Todd McMurtry 16,092 19.0
Total votes 84,683 100.0
Declared
  • Shannon Fabert, business consultant[19]
  • Alexandra Owensby, nurse practitioner[19]

Primary results
Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alexandra Owensby 41,531 58.4
Democratic Shannon Fabert 29,557 41.6
Total votes 71,088 100.0

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[9] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Kentucky's 4th congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thomas Massie (incumbent) 256,613 67.1
Democratic Alexandra Owensby 125,896 32.9
Total votes 382,509 100.0
Republican hold

District 5
2020 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election
 
Nominee Hal Rogers Matthew Best
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 250,914 47,056
Percentage 84.2% 15.8%
County results
Rogers:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Hal Rogers
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Hal Rogers
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 5th congressional district

The 5th district, one of the poorest and most rural in the country, is based in the coalfields of eastern Kentucky. The incumbent is Republican Hal Rogers, who was re-elected with 78.9% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Declared
  • Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative[20]
  • Geraldo Serrano, farmer and candidate for Kentucky's 5th congressional district in 2018[20]

Primary results
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Hal Rogers (incumbent) 76,575 91.1
Republican Gerardo Serrano 7,436 8.9
Total votes 84,011 100.0
Declared
Declined

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[9] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Kentucky's 5th congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Hal Rogers (incumbent) 250,914 84.2
Democratic Matthew Best 47,056 15.8
Total votes 297,970 100.0
Republican hold

District 6
2020 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election
 
Nominee Andy Barr Josh Hicks
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 216,948 155,011
Percentage 57.3% 41.0%
County results
Barr:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Hicks:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Andy Barr
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Andy Barr
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 6th congressional district

The 6th district is located in central Kentucky, taking in Lexington, Richmond, and Frankfort. The incumbent is Republican Andy Barr, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Declared

Primary results
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Barr (incumbent) 62,706 90.7
Republican Chuck Eddy 3,636 5.3
Republican Geoff Young 2,765 4.0
Total votes 69,107 100.0
Declared
  • Josh Hicks, attorney and U.S. Marine veteran[24]
  • Daniel Kemph, business analyst and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[23]

Primary results
Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Hicks 81,305 72.4
Democratic Daniel Kemph 31,064 27.6
Total votes 112,369 100.0

Endorsements
Josh Hicks (D)

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Likely R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[4] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Likely R July 2, 2020
Politico[6] Likely R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[7] Likely R June 3, 2020
RCP[8] Lean R October 24, 2020
Niskanen[9] Lean R June 7, 2020

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Andy
Barr (R)		 Josh
Hicks (D)		 Frank
Harris (L)		 Undecided
Bluegrass Voters Coalition (D)[upper-alpha 4] July 13, 2020 700 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 50% 2% 11%

Results
Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 2020[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Barr (incumbent) 216,948 57.3
Democratic Josh Hicks 155,011 41.0
Libertarian Frank Harris 6,491 1.7
Total votes 378,450 100.0
Republican hold

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Would consider another candidate besides Massie" with 36%; "don't know" with 7%
Partisan clients
  1. By the time of this poll's sampling period, the Club for Growth had endorsed Massie's re-election bid
  2. Poll sponsored by Massie
  3. The Club for Growth is an organization that exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  4. This pollster supports candidates it considers politically progressive

References
  1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 8, 2019.
  2. Overstreet, Melinda J. (January 10, 2020). "Candidates seek to unseat Riley, Rowland and Givens; 17 file for nine Glasgow council seats". Glasgow Daily Times. Archived from the original on January 27, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  3. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  4. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  5. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  6. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  7. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  8. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  9. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  10. "November 3, 2020 - Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. November 20, 2020. pp. 12–19. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  11. Swietek, Wes (January 10, 2020). "Minter, Sheldon unopposed in 2020". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  12. "2020 Primary Election - Certified Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky - State Board of Elections. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  13. Munson, Emilie (January 6, 2020). "Exclusive: Another Republican joins 5th District race". Retrieved January 9, 2020.
  14. "KENTUCKY". Politics 1. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  15. "Thomas Massie". www.facebook.com.
  16. Bailey, Phillip M.; Sonka, Joe (January 10, 2020). "Attorney in Covington Catholic case challenges Rep. Thomas Massie in GOP primary". Louisville Courier Journal. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  17. Bailey, Phillip M. (July 3, 2019). "National Republicans may be maneuvering to unseat Kentucky's conservative darling, Massie". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  18. Bailey, Phillip M. (July 4, 2019). "Rand Paul: Thomas Massie has 'my full support' against GOP primary threat". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved August 13, 2019.
  19. Fair, Julia (January 7, 2020). "This is our best shot at changing things.' NKY Democrat nurse practitioner files to run against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie in 2020". Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  20. Mills, Jarrod (January 11, 2020). "Several races set as election filing deadline passes". Times-Tribune. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  21. Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Lexington Herald Leader.
  22. "Andy Barr". Facebook. December 16, 2019. Retrieved December 25, 2019.
  23. Greene, Jonathan (January 14, 2020). "ELECTION 2020: Seven running for city commission". Richmond Register. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
  24. Schreiner, Bruce (August 1, 2019). "Marine veteran enters race for 6th District seat in Kentucky". Associated Press News. Retrieved August 1, 2019.
  25. Charles Booker [@Booker4KY] (October 21, 2020). "From the hood to the holler, there is a movement growing in KY. Regular folks are rising up to fight back. @joshhicksky is standing for the people of KY's 6th District, and I am proud to stand with him. Let's send a warrior to Washington: t.co/Tu53QsIu4N t.co/weHGxxkofB" (Tweet). Retrieved January 28, 2021 – via Twitter.
  26. "VoteVets Endorses Josh Hicks for Congress – Josh Hicks for Congress". Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved October 23, 2020.
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates
Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates
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