2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the five U.S. representatives from the state of Oklahoma, one from each of the state's five congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma

November 3, 2020

All 5 Oklahoma seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 4 1
Seats won 5 0
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 1,044,175 475,731
Percentage 67.31% 30.66%
Swing Increase 5.34% Decrease 5.69%

Overview

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1213,70063.70%109,64132.68%12,1303.62%335,471100.0%Republican hold
District 2216,51175.04%63,47222.00%8,5442.96%288,527100.0%Republican hold
District 3242,67778.49%66,50121.51%00.00%309,178100.0%Republican hold
District 4213,09667.79%90,45928.78%10,8033.44%314,358100.0%Republican hold
District 5158,19152.06%145,65847.94%00.00%303,849100.0%Republican gain
Total1,044,17567.31%475,73130.66%31,4772.03%1,551,383100.0%
Popular vote
Republican
67.31%
Democratic
30.66%
Other
2.03%
House seats
Republican
100.00%

District 1

2020 Oklahoma's 1st congressional district election

 
Nominee Kevin Hern Kojo Asamoa-Caesar
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 213,700 109,641
Percentage 63.7% 32.7%

Precinct and county-level results
Hern:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Caesar:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Kevin Hern
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Kevin Hern
Republican

The 1st district was located in the Tulsa metropolitan area and included Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and Washington counties. The incumbent Republican Kevin Hern, was elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2018.[1] Hern won reelection with 63.7% of the vote.

Nominee
Nominee
  • Kojo Asamoa-Caesar, entrepreneur[2]
Eliminated in primary
  • Mark A. Keeter, businessman[3]

Endorsements

Kojo Asamoa-Caesar
Organizations
  • #VoteProChoice[4]

Primary results

Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kojo Asamoa-Caesar 34,868 63.6
Democratic Mark A. Keeter 19,924 36.4
Total votes 54,792 100.0

Declared

  • Evelyn L. Rogers, perennial candidate[3]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kojo Asamoa-Caesar (D) Kevin Hern (R) Evelyn Rogers (I) Undecided
SoonerPoll October 15–20, 2020 1,492 (LV) ± 1.32% 29.83% 58.8% 5.64% 5.8%

Results

Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Hern (incumbent) 213,700 63.7
Democratic Kojo Asamoa-Caesar 109,641 32.7
Independent Evelyn L. Rogers 12,130 3.6
Total votes 335,471 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2020 Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district election

 
Nominee Markwayne Mullin Danyell Lanier
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 216,511 63,472
Percentage 75.0% 22.0%

Precinct and county-level results
Mullin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Lanier:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Markwayne Mullin
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Markwayne Mullin
Republican

The 2nd district encompassed eastern Oklahoma including Choctaw Country, Muskogee and Tahlequah. The incumbent was Republican Markwayne Mullin, who was re-elected with 65.0% of the vote in 2018.[1] Mullin was reelected with 75% of the vote.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Markwayne Mullin

Primary results

Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin (incumbent) 53,149 79.9
Republican Joseph Silk 8,445 12.7
Republican Rhonda Hopkins 4,917 7.4
Total votes 66,511 100.0

Nominee

  • Danyell Lanier, project analyst[3]

Declared

  • Richie Castaldo, Libertarian nominee for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district in 2018[3]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results

Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin (incumbent) 216,511 75.0
Democratic Danyell Lanier 63,472 22.0
Libertarian Richie Castaldo 8,544 3.0
Total votes 288,527 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2020 Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district election

 
Nominee Frank Lucas Zoe Midyett
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 242,677 66,501
Percentage 78.5% 21.5%

Precinct and county-level results
Lucas:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Midyett:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%      ≥90%

U.S. Representative before election

Frank Lucas
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Frank Lucas
Republican

The 3rd district encompassed Northwestern Oklahoma, taking in the Oklahoma Panhandle, Ponca City, Pawnee, Stillwater, as well as the Osage Nation. The incumbent was Republican Frank Lucas, who was re-elected with 73.9% of the vote in 2018.[1] Lucas was reelected with 78.5% of the vote.

Nominee
Withdrew

Nominee

  • Zoe Midyett, rancher[17]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results

Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Frank D. Lucas (incumbent) 242,677 78.5
Democratic Zoe Midyett 66,501 21.5
Total votes 309,178 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

2020 Oklahoma's 4th congressional district election

 
Nominee Tom Cole Mary Brannon
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 213,096 90,459
Percentage 67.8% 28.8%

Precinct and county-level results
Cole:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Brannon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Tom Cole
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tom Cole
Republican

The 4th district was located in South Central Oklahoma and took in parts of the Oklahoma City suburbs, including in Canadian County and Cleveland County. The incumbent was Republican Tom Cole, who was re-elected with 63.1% of the vote in 2018.[1] Cole was reelected with 67.8% of the vote.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • James Taylor, teacher and candidate for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[3]
  • Trevor Sipes, businessman[3]
  • Gilbert O. Sanders, mental health professional[3]

Primary results

Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cole (incumbent) 55,699 76.3
Republican James Taylor 11,081 15.2
Republican Trevor Sipes 4,357 6.0
Republican Gilbert O. Sanders 1,833 2.5
Total votes 72,970 100.0
Nominee
  • Mary Brannon, retired educator and nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2018[3]
Eliminated in primary
  • John D. Argo, metalworker[3]
  • David R. Slemmons, retired librarian[3]

Withdrew

  • Wyndi Brown, activist and entrepreneur[18]
  • Wesley Forbes, energy program assistant[19]

Primary results

Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Brannon 32,199 63.9
Democratic David R. Slemmons 9,793 19.4
Democratic John D. Argo 8,436 16.7
Total votes 50,428 100.0

Declared

  • Bob White, Libertarian nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2016

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results

Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cole (incumbent) 213,096 67.8
Democratic Mary Brannon 90,459 28.8
Libertarian Bob White 10,803 3.4
Total votes 314,358 100.0
Republican hold

District 5

2020 Oklahoma's 5th congressional district election

 
Nominee Stephanie Bice Kendra Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 158,191 145,658
Percentage 52.1% 47.9%

Precinct and county-level results
Bice:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Horn:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Kendra Horn
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Stephanie Bice
Republican

The 5th district was based in Oklahoma City and its surrounding suburbs. The incumbent was Democrat Kendra Horn, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.7% of the vote in 2018.[1] Horn lost reelection to Republican challenger Stephanie Bice who received 52.1% of the vote.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Tom Guild, perennial candidate[20]

Endorsements

Tom Guild
Organizations

Primary results

Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kendra Horn (incumbent) 60,168 85.7
Democratic Tom Guild 10,050 14.3
Total votes 70,218 100.0
Nominee
Eliminated in runoff
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
  • Dan Belcher, entrepreneur[37]
  • David Greene, former horse stall cleaner[38]
  • Merideth VanSant, businesswoman[39]
Declined

Endorsements

Stephanie Bice
Organizations
Terry Neese (eliminated)
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
  • RightNOW Women PAC[53]
David Hill (eliminated)
Individuals
Organizations
  • Conservative Leadership PAC[54]
  • FRC Action[56]

Primary results

Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Terry Neese 24,828 36.5
Republican Stephanie Bice 17,292 25.4
Republican David Hill 12,922 19.0
Republican Janet Barresi 6,799 10.0
Republican Jake A. Merrick 1,736 2.6
Republican Michael Ballard 1,691 2.5
Republican Miles V. Rahimi 967 1.4
Republican Shelli Landon 912 1.3
Republican Charles Tuffy Pringle 908 1.3
Total votes 68,055 100.0

Runoff results

Republican primary runoff results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Stephanie Bice 27,402 52.9
Republican Terry Neese 24,369 47.1
Total votes 51,771 100.0

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Tossup September 11, 2020
Inside Elections[59] Tossup September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Lean D November 2, 2020
Politico[61] Tossup September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[62] Tossup April 29, 2020
RCP[63] Tossup September 14, 2020
Niskanen[12] Tossup June 7, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kendra
Horn (D)
Stephanie
Bice (R)
Other/
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 2020 607 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 2]
Amber Integrated October 22–25, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 44% 49% 8%
Sooner Poll October 15–20, 2020 943 (LV) 49% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
Cole, Snodgrass & Associates/SoonerPoll September 25–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
SoonerPoll September 2–10, 2020 318 (LV) ±  5.49% 44% 45% 11%
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) Archived September 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] August 31 – September 3, 2020 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 52% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 5–9, 2020 500 (LV) ±  4.4% 51% 46% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

with Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin of
error
Kendra
Horn (D)
Generic Republican Undecided
Amber Integrated June 1–4, 2020 95 (LV) 42% 41% 18%
Amber Integrated March 5–8, 2020 89 (LV) 40% 44% 16%
Amber Integrated (R) December 18–20, 2019 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 45% 15%
with Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin of
error
Kendra
Horn (D)
Generic Opponent Other Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] December 3–4, 2019 300 (LV) ± 5.66% 37% 49%[lower-alpha 5] 2%[lower-alpha 6] 12%[lower-alpha 7]
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin of
error
Generic Democrat Generic Republican Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 3] December 3–4, 2019 300 (LV) ± 5.66% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 8]

Results

Oklahoma's 5th congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Stephanie Bice 158,191 52.1
Democratic Kendra Horn (incumbent) 145,658 47.9
Total votes 303,849 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Did not vote, "Don't recall," and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  3. Undecided with 4%
  4. Undecided with 6%
  5. "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 49% as opposed to "Horn has performed her job as Congresswoman well enough to deserve re-election"
  6. "Refused" with 2%
  7. "Unsure/depends" with 12%
  8. "Undecided" with 7%; "don't know/refused" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Horn's campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for the DCCC.
  3. Poll sponsored by Parscale, the manager of Trump's 2020 presidential campaign

References

  1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  2. "Kojo Asamoa-Caesar Announces Bid for Oklahoma's First Congressional District". The Black Wall Street Times. November 4, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2019.
  3. Krehbiel, Randy (June 14, 2020). "Congressional primaries include Democrats dueling for 1st District". Tulsa World.
  4. "Candidates". #VoteProChoice. Archived from the original on October 31, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  5. "OK Election Results". Oklahoma Secretary of State. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  6. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  7. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  8. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  9. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  10. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  11. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  13. "November 3, 2020 - Official Results". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  14. Forman, Carmen (October 11, 2019). "State senator Joseph Silk seeks to unseat Markwayne Mullin". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  15. "Trump went on a mini-endorsement spree on Tuesday". Politico. December 18, 2019.
  16. "Joshua Jantz - Unleash Freedom". Joshua Jantz.
  17. "Race shapes up for Garfield County sheriff". Enid News & Eagle. April 8, 2020.
  18. "Wyndi Brown for Congress – Oklahoma District 4". Archived from the original on April 15, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
  19. "Wesley Forbes for Congress". wesleyforbesforcongress.com. Archived from the original on February 23, 2020.
  20. "Tom Guild, Progressive Democrat". Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  21. Klein, Howie (March 7, 2020). "Blue America Congressional Endorsement In Oklahoma: Tom Guild". Blue America. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  22. "Page by Page Report Display (Page 623 of 678)".
  23. "U.S. House Candidates". EMILY's List.
  24. Muller, Tiffany (March 20, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Rep. Kendra Horn for Re-Election". End Citizens United.
  25. Acosta, Lucas (May 18, 2020). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign.
  26. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  27. "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  28. Kornbluh, Jacob (June 17, 2020). "Jewish Dems roll out new round of congressional endorsements". Jewish Insider. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  29. Casteel, Chris (April 24, 2019). "Bice to challenge Horn for congressional seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  30. Felder, Ben (April 25, 2019). "Neese becomes second Republican to seek 5th District seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  31. Van Risseghem, David (April 27, 2019). "Neese & Ballard Join Race For Congress". Sooner Politics. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  32. "Number of Oklahoma Republicans seeking to unseat Horn grows". Associated Press. October 2, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
  33. Snyder, Dan (June 17, 2020). "Meet the candidate: Shelli Landon (R-OK5)". FOX 25. Archived from the original on June 18, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  34. Metzer, Steve (June 3, 2020). "GOP candidates criticize Horn, tout conservative values in Journal Record forum". The Journal Record.
  35. Snyder, Dan (June 18, 2020). "Meet the candidate: Charles "Tuffy" Pringle (R-OK5)". Fox 25. Archived from the original on August 13, 2020. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  36. Casteel, Chris (February 23, 2020). "GOP Hopefuls Speak To Crowd Eager To Reclaim Congressional Seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  37. "Home". Dan The Man for Congress. Archived from the original on September 28, 2019. Retrieved January 14, 2022.
  38. "Headquarters". Greene for Congress.
  39. Staff, Edmond Sun (May 29, 2019). "VanSant announces candidacy for 5th Congressional District". The Edmond Sun. Archived from the original on June 7, 2019. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  40. Riley, Patrick (April 25, 2019). "Kendra Horn's first challenger steps into the ring..." The Lost Ogle. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
  41. Bruno, Jessica (April 24, 2019). "War of words on display between sheriff, commissioner". Oklahoma News 4. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
  42. Casteel, Chris (October 10, 2019). "Cornett won't seek congressional seat, sources say". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
  43. Mutnick, Ally (November 26, 2018). "Inside the Midterms' Biggest House Upset". National Journal. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  44. Hermes, Grant (January 21, 2019). "Rep. Horn Being Targeted In 2020 Republican Campaign Plan". KWTV. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  45. Shelden, Darla (July 15, 2019). "Contractors' group supports Stephanie Bice in Fifth District Congressional race". Oklahoma City Sentinel.
  46. "Our Candidates".
  47. "Empower America Project Endorses 10 Congressional Candidates". www.empower.org.
  48. Manchester, Julia (April 3, 2020). "Conservative women's group unveils new congressional endorsements". TheHill.
  49. "Meet Stephanie | Stephanie Bice for Congress". Archived from the original on June 22, 2020. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  50. "Endorsements". Terry Neese for Congress. Archived from the original on August 17, 2020. Retrieved January 29, 2021.
  51. "Log In or Sign Up to View". www.facebook.com.
  52. Faught, Jamison. "Former Edmond Mayor Saundra Naifeh endorses Neese for Congress".
  53. "RightNOW Women PAC Announces Endorsement of Terry Neese for Congress (OK-05)". RightNOW Women PAC.
  54. Faught, Jamison (May 27, 2020). "Morton Blackwell's Conservative Leadership PAC endorses Hill for Congress". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved January 29, 2021.
  55. "Hamm throws support to GOP congressional candidate against Rep. Horn". December 3, 2019.
  56. "David Hill Endorsed by Family Research Council Action PAC". February 26, 2020.
  57. "OK Election Results". Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
  58. "2020 House Race Ratings for September 11, 2020". The Cook Political Report. September 11, 2020.
  59. "2020 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. September 4, 2019.
  60. "2020 House race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 3, 2020. Archived from the original on October 29, 2019. Retrieved December 29, 2019.
  61. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. September 9, 2020.
  62. "House Oklahoma - 05". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved April 29, 2020.
  63. "Battle for House 2020". RCP. September 14, 2020.
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.