2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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| Turnout | 55.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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  Heinrich: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rich: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term.[1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.
The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.
Democratic primary
Declared
- Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 152,145 | 100% | |
| Total votes | 152,145 | 100% | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Mick Rich, businessman[4]
Declined
- Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and candidate for NM-02 in 2008 (ran as a Libertarian, later endorsed Gary Johnson)[5]
- Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 (ran for Governor)[6]
- Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico[7]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mick Rich | 67,502 | 100% | |
| Total votes | 67,502 | 100% | ||
Libertarian primary
On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[9]
Declared
- Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico,[10] Libertarian nominee for president in 2012 and 2016
Withdrew nomination
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Aubrey Dunn | 623 | 100% | |
| Total votes | 623 | 100% | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018
Endorsements
Martin Heinrich (D)
Mick Rich (R)
- Governors
- Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico, former chair of the Republican Governors Association[21]
- U.S. Representatives
- Individuals
- Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist and executive chair of Breitbart News[23]
- Organizations
- Associated Builders and Contractors[24]
- National Right to Life Committee[25]
- National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors[26]
Gary Johnson (L)
- Governors
- Bill Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts and 2016 Libertarian nominee for Vice-President[27]
- U.S. Senators
- Rand Paul, Republican U.S. Senator from Kentucky[28][29]
- Statewide officials
- Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands, former Libertarian Senate candidate[30]
- State Representatives
- Tweeti Blancett, former Republican State Representative[31]
- Robert Perls, former Democratic State Representative[31]
- Local officeholders
- Jim Gray, former presiding judge of the Orange County Superior Court in California and 2012 Libertarian nominee for Vice-President[32]
- Mark Tippetts, former member of the city council of Lago Vista, Texas, and 2018 Libertarian nominee for Governor of Texas[33]
- Eric Brakey, State Senator and Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Maine[34]
- Journalists
- Nick Gillespie, editor-at-large of Reason magazine[35]
- Newspapers
- Organizations
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[40] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Fox News[42] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
| CNN[43] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[44] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[45] | Safe D | November 6, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Graphical summary
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Mick Rich (R) |
Gary Johnson (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 33% | 11% | 9% |
| Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | November 1, 2018 | 1,202 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 38% | 8% | 3% |
| Research & Polling, Inc. | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 | ± 3.1% | 51% | 31% | 12% | 6% |
| Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 32% | 16% | 5% |
| Pacific Market Research | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 28% | 22% | 11% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 | – | 36% | 10% | 28% | 26% |
| In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) | September 16–17, 2018 | 900 | – | 38% | 10% | 28% | 24% |
| Research & Polling, Inc. | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 26% | 16% | – |
| In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 2018 | 900 | – | 38% | 13% | 28% | 21% |
| Emerson College | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 11% | 21% | 30% |
| GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 2–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 33% | 17% | 2% |
| GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 29% | 22% | – |
| The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 6% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 2018 | 500 | – | 39% | 25% | 23% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Mick Rich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Mick Rich (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 | – | 47% | 29% | – |
- with Gary Johnson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Gary Johnson (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 38% | – |
| In Lux Research (L) | July 28–29, 2018 | 525 | – | 40% | 42% | – |
- with Aubrey Dunn
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Mick Rich (R) |
Aubrey Dunn (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 | – | 47% | 30% | 7% | 16% |
| Carroll Strategies | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 39% | 5% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 376,998 | 54.1% | +3.1% | |
| Republican | Mick Rich | 212,813 | 30.5% | -14.8% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 107,201 | 15.4% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 697,012 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
County results
| Martin Heinrich Democrat |
Mick Rich Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Bernalillo | 140,082 | 58.1% | 61,932 | 25.7% | 39,274 | 16.3% | 241,288 |
| Catron | 550 | 26.9% | 1,075 | 58.4% | 217 | 11.8% | 1,842 |
| Chaves | 5,279 | 31.7% | 8,727 | 52.4% | 2,666 | 16.0% | 16,672 |
| Cibola | 3,924 | 55.1% | 1,842 | 25.9% | 1,355 | 19.0% | 7,121 |
| Colfax | 2,333 | 49.9% | 1,615 | 34.5% | 731 | 15.6% | 4,679 |
| Curry | 2,793 | 27.4% | 5,896 | 57.9% | 1,498 | 14.7% | 10,187 |
| De Baca | 267 | 33.2% | 342 | 42.5% | 196 | 24.4% | 805 |
| Doña Ana | 34,651 | 57.0% | 18,101 | 29.8% | 8,029 | 13.2% | 60,781 |
| Eddy | 4,834 | 30.7% | 8,826 | 56.0% | 2,095 | 13.3% | 15,755 |
| Grant | 6,763 | 57.3% | 3,598 | 30.5% | 1,442 | 12.2% | 11,803 |
| Guadalupe | 1,094 | 65.2% | 292 | 17.4% | 292 | 17.4% | 1,678 |
| Harding | 198 | 41.2% | 199 | 41.4% | 84 | 17.5% | 481 |
| Hidalgo | 790 | 49.5% | 607 | 38.1% | 198 | 12.4% | 1,595 |
| Lea | 3,331 | 24.1% | 8,882 | 64.2% | 1,628 | 11.8% | 13,841 |
| Lincoln | 2,617 | 33.3% | 4,122 | 52.5% | 1,111 | 14.2% | 7,850 |
| Los Alamos | 5,798 | 56.3% | 2,576 | 25.0% | 1,926 | 18.7% | 10,300 |
| Luna | 3,005 | 48.9% | 2,313 | 37.7% | 823 | 13.4% | 6,141 |
| McKinley | 12,409 | 67.5% | 2,915 | 15.9% | 3,049 | 16.6% | 18,373 |
| Mora | 1,564 | 67.4% | 372 | 16.0% | 386 | 16.6% | 2,322 |
| Otero | 6,370 | 37.2% | 8,460 | 49.4% | 2,291 | 13.4% | 17,121 |
| Quay | 1,016 | 32.9% | 1,534 | 49.7% | 537 | 17.4% | 3,087 |
| Rio Arriba | 8,773 | 68.8% | 1,945 | 15.3% | 2,035 | 16.0% | 12,753 |
| Roosevelt | 1,277 | 27.6% | 2,606 | 56.3% | 750 | 16.2% | 4,633 |
| San Juan | 12,485 | 33.4% | 18,002 | 48.2% | 6,876 | 18.4% | 37,363 |
| San Miguel | 6,609 | 71.6% | 1,298 | 14.1% | 1,323 | 14.3% | 9,230 |
| Sandoval | 28,198 | 50.9% | 17,785 | 32.1% | 9,397 | 17.0% | 55,380 |
| Santa Fe | 49,994 | 74.4% | 9,546 | 14.2% | 7,642 | 11.4% | 67,182 |
| Sierra | 1,917 | 40.5% | 2,048 | 43.3% | 767 | 16.2% | 4,732 |
| Socorro | 3,409 | 54.7% | 1,700 | 27.3% | 1,129 | 18.1% | 6,238 |
| Taos | 10,838 | 74.7% | 1,556 | 10.7% | 2,112 | 14.6% | 14,506 |
| Torrance | 1,982 | 36.9% | 2,433 | 45.3% | 951 | 17.7% | 5,366 |
| Union | 334 | 22.8% | 878 | 60.0% | 252 | 17.2% | 1,464 |
| Valencia | 11,514 | 47.1% | 8,790 | 35.0% | 4,139 | 16.9% | 24,443 |
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
- Los Alamos (largest municipality: Los Alamos)
- Sandoval (largest municipality: Rio Rancho)
- Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)
Results by congressional district
Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.[47]
| District | Heinrich | Rich | Johnson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57.55% | 26.28% | 16.17% | Deb Haaland |
| 2nd | 45.56% | 40.17% | 14.27% | Xochitl Torres Small |
| 3rd | 57.52% | 27.0% | 15.48% | Ben Ray Luján |
References
- Coleman, Michael (November 10, 2016). "Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- "United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
- "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 3, 2019.
- Lee, Morgan (April 19, 2017). "New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid". KOB. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
- "Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM". Nmpoliticalreport.com. January 30, 2018. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
- Keithley, Tim (November 23, 2016). "Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018". Ruidoso News. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
- "New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run". U.S. News & World Report. January 18, 2018. Retrieved March 15, 2018.
- "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
- Boyd, Dan (August 14, 2018). "Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate". Albuquerque Journal.
- "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
- McLaughlin, Jill. "Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Los Alamos Monitor. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
- @TeamHeinrich (August 17, 2018). "Speaking of independent voices in the Senate, here's @SenAngusKing on why we need Martin's. #nmpol #nmsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "Retirees Celebrate Social Security's 83rd Anniversary by Endorsing Senator Heinrich - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. August 23, 2018.
- Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Re-election". End Citizens United.
- "2018 Senate Endorsees". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
- "National Environmental Groups Endorse Martin Heinrich For U.S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. April 22, 2018.
- "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
- "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierraclub.org. July 16, 2012. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
- "Carpenters 2018 Midterm New Mexico Endorsements". Swcarpenters.org. Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters.
- "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". Uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- @MickRich4Senate (September 6, 2018). "With Gov. Susana Martinez at the Carlsbad Mayor's Energy Summit. #NMpol #NMsen #Carlsbad #oil&gas" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "Steve Pearce Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 3, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
- Lyman, Andy (October 19, 2018). "Steve Bannon: Mick Rich is a 'real populist'". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
- "Associated Builders and Contractors Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. June 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved June 23, 2018.
- "National Right To Life Committee Endorses Mick Rich". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. July 31, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
- Mick Rich. "I'm honored today to be endorsed by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors PAC. Thank you! I am the only conservative and pro-business candidate in New Mexico's race for U.S. Senate. #NMpol #NMsen". Twitter.
- "Bill Weld". Facebook. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- "Sen. Rand Paul Backs Libertarian Senate Candidate". The Associated Press. August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
- Keller, Megan (August 28, 2018). "Rand Paul endorses Gary Johnson's Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved January 11, 2019.
- "Aubrey Dunn". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
- "Endorsements". Gary Johnson Official Campaign Site. Archived from the original on August 31, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
- @Mark4Gov (August 28, 2018). "Thank you @RandPaul for supporting the very best candidate for senate in New Mexico, @GovGaryJohnson!!#principlesoverparty#riseofthelibertarians#endtwopartyrule" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Welch, Matt (August 31, 2018). "Eric Brakey, Republican Senate Candidate in Maine, Endorses Gary Johnson". Reason. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
- @nickgillespie (August 14, 2018). "Very excited at this news about @GovGaryJohnson running as @LPNational candidate for Senate in NM! Stand by for more @MattWelch coverage reason.com/blog/2018/08/14/its-happening-gary-johnson-running-for-s … @GovBillWeld" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "The Senate could use more libertarians like Gary Johnson". Ocregister.com. August 17, 2018. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
- "Libertarian Youth Caucus". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
- "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
- "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
- "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
- Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
- "New Mexico - Election Night Results". Archived from the original on June 11, 2019. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
- "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
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