2006 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

2006 United States Senate election in Montana
November 7, 2006
 
Nominee Jon Tester Conrad Burns
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 199,845 196,283
Percentage 49.2% 48.3%
County results
Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Burns:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Conrad Burns
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
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2000
2004
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2020
Republican
2008
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Ballot measures
1894
Capital referendum
2004
Initiative 96
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Referendum 121
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Initiative 182
2020
Initiative 190

Background

Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for president, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable. A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[1] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[2] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[3] but Morrison's advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[4] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[5] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester 65,757 60.77
Democratic John Morrison 38,394 35.48
Democratic Paul Richards 1,636 1.51
Democratic Robert Candee 1,471 1.36
Democratic Kenneth Marcure 940 0.87
Total votes 108,198 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 70,434 72.26
Republican Bob Keenan 21,754 22.32
Republican Bob Kelleher 4,082 4.19
Republican Daniel Loyd Neste Huffman 1,203 1.23
Total votes 97,473 100.00

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum.[7]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized.[8]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[9]

Debates

Endorsements
Jon Tester (D)
Individuals

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Tossup November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[14] Tossup November 6, 2006

Polling
Source Date Jon
Tester (D)		 Conrad
Burns (R)		 Stan
Jones (L)
Mason Dixon May 2005 26% 50%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% 51%
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen January 11, 2006 45% 45%
Rasmussen February 13, 2006 46% 46%
Rasmussen March 20, 2006 46% 43%
Rasmussen April 15, 2006 44% 47%
Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) May 2, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen May 16, 2006 48% 44%
Mason Dixon May 28, 2006 45% 42%
Lake Research (D) June 20–26, 2006 43% 42%
Rasmussen July 11, 2006 50% 43%
Rasmussen August 10, 2006 47% 47%
Lake Research (D) August 10, 2006 44% 37%
Gallup September 5, 2006 48% 45%
Rasmussen September 13, 2006 52% 43%
Rasmussen September 20, 2006 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon October 1, 2006 47% 40% 3%
Reuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 46% 42%
Rasmussen October 11, 2006 49% 42%
Rasmussen October 18, 2006 48% 46%
Montana State University-Billings October 19, 2006 46% 35%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 46% 43%
Harstad Strategic (D) October 25, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen October 29, 2006 51% 47%
Reuters/Zogby October 31, 2006 47% 46% 2%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 3, 2006 47% 47% 1%
Rasmussen November 3, 2006 50% 46%
USA Today/Gallup November 4, 2006 50% 41%
Rasmussen November 4, 2006 50% 48%
OnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 49% 44%

Results

Tester narrowly defeated Burns on election day by just over 3,000 votes. Libertarian candidate Jones received over 10,000 votes, greater than Tester's margin of victory. Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[15]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[16] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[17]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[18] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9 and congratulated Tester on his victory.[19]

2006 United States Senate election in Montana[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester 199,845 49.16% +1.92%
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 196,283 48.29% -2.27%
Libertarian Stan Jones 10,377 2.55% N/A
Total votes 406,505 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

County results

Source[21]

Jon Tester
Democratic		 Conrad Burns
Republican		 Stan Jones
Libertarian		 Margin Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Beaverhead1,37634.14%2,55263.31%1032.56%1,17629.17%4,031
Big Horn2,99964.72%1,55133.47%841.81%1,44831.25%4,634
Blaine1,39051.90%1,22645.78%622.32%1646.12%2,678
Broadwater82534.93%1,45161.43%863.64%62626.50%2,362
Carbon2,24745.92%2,51051.30%1362.78%2635.38%4,893
Carter9814.71%55483.18%142.10%45668.47%666
Cascade14,94749.37%14,78948.85%5401.78%1580.52%30,276
Chouteau1,49151.86%1,34546.78%391.36%1465.08%2,875
Custer1,99142.36%2,58154.91%1282.72%59012.55%4,700
Daniels42440.77%59457.12%222.12%17016.35%1,040
Dawson1,59540.31%2,24756.79%1152.91%65216.48%3,957
Deer Lodge3,21172.63%1,09624.79%1142.58%2,11547.84%4,421
Fallon34726.31%95172.10%211.59%60445.79%1,319
Fergus1,98535.25%3,47461.68%1733.07%1,48926.44%5,632
Flathead13,27640.24%18,51156.10%1,2093.66%5,23515.87%32,996
Gallatin16,51148.67%16,69349.21%7202.12%1820.54%33,924
Garfield9816.58%48381.73%101.69%38565.14%591
Glacier2,74862.37%1,56435.50%942.13%1,18426.87%4,406
Golden Valley18137.24%29861.32%71.44%11724.07%486
Granite59439.13%86256.79%624.08%26817.65%1,518
Hill3,41158.33%2,32039.67%1172.00%1,09118.66%5,848
Jefferson2,41545.76%2,71551.44%1482.80%3005.68%5,278
Judith Basin37731.63%78565.86%302.52%40834.23%1,192
Lake5,61848.81%5,48047.61%4133.59%1381.20%11,511
Lewis and Clark14,92154.74%11,73443.05%6042.22%3,18711.69%27,259
Liberty40139.66%59658.95%141.38%19519.29%1,011
Lincoln2,86039.17%4,10556.23%3364.60%1,24517.05%7,301
Madison1,22433.68%2,31163.59%992.72%1,08729.91%3,634
McCone39437.88%62460.00%222.12%23022.12%1,040
Meagher27232.19%55265.33%212.49%28033.14%845
Mineral79648.98%77947.94%503.08%171.05%1,625
Missoula29,32763.92%15,61034.02%9422.05%13,71729.90%45,879
Musselshell67031.16%1,38264.28%984.56%71233.12%2,150
Park3,73150.60%3,44146.67%2012.73%2903.93%7,373
Petroleum7429.43%18067.92%114.15%10640.00%265
Phillips55928.18%1,36668.85%592.97%80740.68%1,984
Pondera1,08041.08%1,49456.83%552.09%41415.75%2,629
Powder River24824.55%73472.67%282.77%48648.12%1,010
Powell1,05240.48%1,45455.94%933.58%40215.47%2,599
Prairie21331.09%45566.42%172.48%24235.33%685
Ravalli7,90642.41%10,27355.11%4622.48%2,36712.70%18,641
Richland1,35435.22%2,38161.94%1092.84%1,02726.72%3,844
Roosevelt2,20357.47%1,57341.04%571.49%63016.44%3,833
Rosebud1,89555.31%1,42532.15%1063.09%47013.72%3,426
Sanders2,16543.53%2,57551.77%2344.70%4108.24%4,974
Sheridan98851.43%88746.17%462.39%1015.26%1,921
Silver Bow9,50066.69%4,39430.85%3512.46%5,10635.84%14,245
Stillwater1,55639.28%2,26257.11%1433.61%70617.82%3,961
Sweet Grass56332.39%1,11564.15%603.45%55231.76%1,738
Teton1,25240.80%1,75557.18%622.02%50316.39%3,069
Toole75937.52%1,19559.07%693.41%43621.55%2,023
Treasure16136.93%26059.63%153.44%9922.71%436
Valley1,55043.90%1,89353.61%882.49%3439,71%3,531
Wheatland32738.47%49858.59%252.94%17120.12%850
Wibaux16533.81%31764.96%61.23%15231.15%488
Yellowstone27,98147.77%29,20349.85%1,3942.38%1,2222.09%58,578

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References
  1. "SurveyUSA News Poll #8541". www.surveyusa.com. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  2. "BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice". Archived from the original on June 2, 2006. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
  3. "BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million". Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  4. "Politics Home Page : Roll Call". Archived from the original on August 27, 2006. Retrieved June 7, 2006.
  5. Bureau - 05/28/06, CHARLES S. JOHNSON-IR State. "Tester, Morrison deadlocked". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  6. "2006 Statewide Primary Canvass - June 6, 2006 compiled by Secretary Of State Brad Johnson" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 12, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  7. "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on July 13, 2006. Retrieved July 11, 2006.
  8. "Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters | Missoula | New West Network". Archived from the original on December 26, 2006. Retrieved August 3, 2006.
  9. Bureau - 09/01/06, JENNIFER McKEE-IR State. "Burns urges Schweitzer to take steps already taken". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  10. "Jon Tester (Senate - MT) | WesPAC". November 4, 2006. Archived from the original on November 4, 2006. Retrieved April 8, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  11. "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  12. "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  13. "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  14. "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  15. "Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race". NPR. November 9, 2006. Retrieved April 1, 2018.
  16. "Democrat challenger takes Montana". USA Today. November 8, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  17. "Democrat wins Montana Senate seat, CNN projects". CNN. Archived from the original on November 8, 2006.
  18. "13-16-211. Recounts are allowed if bond is posted to cover all costs". Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  19. "Montana's Burns concedes Senate race". USA Today. November 9, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  20. 2006 Election Statistics
  21. "U.S. Senate / Montana / County Results". CNN. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
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