Next Lithuanian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Lithuania by 6 October 2024, with a second round two weeks thereafter.
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All 141 seats in the Seimas 71 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral system
The Seimas has 141 members, elected to a four-year term in parallel voting, with 71 members elected in single-seat constituencies and 70 members elected by proportional representation.[1] The voting in the elections is open to all citizens of Lithuania who are at least 18 years old.
Parliament members in the 71 single-seat constituencies are elected in a majority vote, with a run-off held within 15 days, if necessary. The remaining 70 seats are allocated to the participating political parties using the largest remainder method. Parties normally need to receive at least 5% (7% for multi-party electoral lists) of the votes to be eligible for a seat. Candidates take the seats allocated to their parties based on the preference lists submitted before the election and adjusted by preference votes given by the voters.[1]
Changes to the constitution and new electoral code
After passing amendment of Constitution's article № 56 in April 2022, to be eligible for election, candidates must be at least 21 years old on the election day, not under allegiance to a foreign state and permanently reside in Lithuania,[2] while previously, candidates needed to be at least 25 years old on the election day. Persons serving or due to serve a sentence imposed by the court 65 days before the election are not eligible. Also, judges, citizens performing military service, and servicemen of professional military service and officials of statutory institutions and establishments may not stand for election.[1] In addition, a person who has been removed from office through impeachment may be elected after 10 year period after impeachment.[3][4]
On 23 June 2022 the Electoral Code was passed. The Code replaced various elections' acts and introduced several changes to the parliamentary elections. Firstly, it gave possibility to establish more than one worldwide constituency. Secondly, it removed a ban of political parties' agitation on Saturdays (e. g. one day prior elections).[5]
Impeached politicians that will be eligible for reelection
| Politician | Party | Impeachment date | Eligibility for standing date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President of the Republic Rolandas Paksas | Independent | 6 April 2004 | 6 April 2014 | |
| Member of Seimas Linas Karalius | National Resurrection Party | 11 November 2010 | 11 November 2020 | |
| Member of Seimas Neringa Venckienė | The Way of Courage | 19 June 2014 | 19 June 2024 | |
Opinion polls
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election.
Parliamentary election poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.
| Pollster | Fieldwork dates | Sample size | TS–LKD | LVŽS | DP | LSDP | LP | LRLS | LLRA−KŠS | LRP | LCP | LT | DSVL | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–26 September 2023 | 1,013 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 22.8 | 5.7 | 12.6 | 3.5 | − | − | 5,0 | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| Vilmorus | 14–23 September 2023 | 1,003 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 31.9 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 9.3 | 14.7 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 24 August – 5 September 2023 | 1,016 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 21.8 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 18.9 | 2.9 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 20–29 July 2023 | 1,009 | 17.4 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 19.6 | 4.2 | 10.7 | 3.3 | − | − | 3.9 | 12.4 | 2.2 |
| Vilmorus | 17–19 July 2023 | 1,003 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 31.0 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 12.3 | 15.0 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 19–28 June 2023 | 1,012 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 18.4 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 3.2 | − | − | 5.8 | 11.4 | 5.6 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 14–29 June 2023 | 1,020 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 23.2 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 18.6 | 4.6 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 12–29 May 2023 | 1,009 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 23.2 | 4.1 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 19.1 | 4.1 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 19–26 May 2023 | 1,009 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 20.7 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | − | − | 5.1 | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| Vilmorus | 17–21 May 2023 | 1,000 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 6.2 | 29.8 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 13.5 | 14.4 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 20 April – 5 May 2023 | 1,026 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 25.8 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 17.2 | 8.6 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–27 April 2023 | 1,014 | 16.6 | 13.7 | 2.7 | 23.5 | 3.8 | 9.8 | − | − | − | 3.8 | 10.1 | 6.7 |
| Vilmorus | 14–22 April 2023 | 1,000 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 28.8 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 12.9 | 13.2 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–27 March 2023 | 1,016 | 16.5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 18.1 | 5.8 | 9.5 | − | − | − | 6.1 | 11.5 | 1.6 |
| Vilmorus | 9–18 March 2023 | 1,000 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 4.3 | 28.2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 13.1 |
| 2023 municipal election | 5 March 2023 | − | 16.2 | 9.2 | 3.67 | 17.45 | 3.55 | 6.95 | 5.33 | 2.47 | 2.6 | 0.92 | 6.68 | 1.25 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 15–28 February 2023[lower-alpha 1] | 1,003 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 18.3 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 18.3 | Tie |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–27 February 2023 | 1,012 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 17.2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | − | − | − | 3.9 | 13.9 | 0.5 |
| Vilmorus | 9–18 February 2023 | 1,000 | 16.1 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 24.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 16.2 | 8.2 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 19–31 January 2023[lower-alpha 2] | 1,023 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 19.4 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 19.8 | 0.4 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–27 January 2023 | 1,010 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 4.6 | 17.6 | 6.8 | 8.9 | − | − | − | 3.0 | 17.3 | 0.3 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 15–24 December 2022 | 1,010 | 19.8 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 17.8 | 4.5 | 8.6 | − | − | − | 3.9 | 14.5 | 2.0 |
| Vilmorus | 8–15 December 2022 | 1,000 | 16.7 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 15.3 | 8.3 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 17 November – 2 December 2022[lower-alpha 3] | 1,026 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 16.2 | 3.8 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 2.7 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–29 November 2022 | 1,013 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 8.3 | − | − | − | 5.0 | 12.1 | 1.9 |
| Vilmorus | 10–19 November 2022 | 1,000 | 17.1 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 24.3 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 7.2 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 26 October – 8 November 2022[lower-alpha 4] | 1,026 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 17.7 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 8.0 | 16.1 | 1.6 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–28 October 2022 | 1,011 | 21.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 8.8 | − | − | − | 8.0 | 11.2 | 3.7 |
| Vilmorus | 11–16 October 2022 | 1,002 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 23.7 | 2.7 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 3.5 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 20–30 September 2022 | 1,010 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 17.6 | 6.1 | 9.7 | − | − | − | 7.5 | 10.1 | 1.1 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 16−27 September 2022[lower-alpha 5] | 1,024 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 20.0 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 15.7 | 4.3 |
| Vilmorus | 15–24 September 2022 | 1,000 | 18.9 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 22.4 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 2.5 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 25 August – 2 September 2022 | 1,006 | 19.1 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 9.8 | − | − | − | 6.4 | 14.5 | 4.6 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | August 2022[lower-alpha 6] | – | 15.0 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 18.3 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 20.1 | 1.8 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 12–28 July 2022 | 1,021 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 20.0 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 12.7 | 16.9 | 3.1 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–28 July 2022 | 1,013 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 9.4 | − | − | − | 7.0 | 16.5 | Tie |
| Vilmorus | 15–23 July 2022 | 1,003 | 17.4 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 20.8 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 16.2 | 3.4 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–28 June 2022 | 1,015 | 19.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 8.0 | − | − | − | 7.5 | 17.0 | 2.7 |
| Vilmorus | 9–18 June 2022 | 1,003 | 18.1 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 22.5 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 14.7 | 4.4 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 16–28 May 2022 | 1,021 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 17.1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 10.7 | 20.9 | 3.8 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–27 May 2022 | 1,013 | 20.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 18.7 | 6.5 | 8.1 | – | – | – | 6.8 | 12.8 | 1.6 |
| Vilmorus | 12–18 May 2022 | 1,001 | 19.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 25.8 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | – | 19.1 | 5.9 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 20–28 April 2022 | 1,007 | 20.1 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 9.3 | – | – | – | 6.4 | 14.8 | 5.3 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 13–27 April 2022 | 1,009 | 14.7 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 19.0 | 2.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.7 | 22.0 | 3.0 |
| Open Agency/Norstat | 15–22 April 2022[lower-alpha 7] | 1,000 | 23.4 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 16.6 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 12.4 | 6.8 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–25 March 2022 | 1,007 | 19.3 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 15.1 | 5.5 | 8.9 | – | – | – | 6.9 | 15.8 | 3.5 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 10–24 March 2022 | 1,000 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 9.8 | 18.8 | 0.8 |
| Vilmorus | 10–19 March 2022 | 1,005 | 19.0 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 23.0 | 2.3 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | – | 19.8 | 3.2 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 22 February – 3 March 2022 | 1,017 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 17.1 | 4.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8.8 | 19.5 | 2.4 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–25 February 2022 | 1,010 | 17.3 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 17.6 | 6.5 | 8.6 | – | – | – | 5.9 | 12.5 | 0.3 |
| Vilmorus | 3–8 February 2022 | 1,005 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 26.9 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 3.6 | – | – | 17.8 | 9.1 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 24 January – 4 February 2022 | 1,022 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 23.9 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 11.9 | – | 13.5 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–29 January 2022 | 1,010 | 16.9 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 14.9 | 7.9 | 9.6 | – | – | – | 5.8 | 11.9 | 2.0 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 13–25 December 2021 | 1,012 | 17.0 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 17.2 | 7.4 | 11.3 | – | – | – | 5.7 | 11.3 | 0.2 |
| Open Agency/Norstat | 10–18 December 2021[lower-alpha 8] | 1,002 | 24.6 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 17.8 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 2.4 | – | 0.9 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 6.8 |
| Vilmorus | 10–18 December 2021 | 1,000 | 17.5 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 32.0 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 5.5 | – | – | – | 14.5 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 16 November – 2 December 2021 | 1,009 | 15.5 | 15.0 | 7.8 | 25.7 | 4.1 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 10.1 | – | 10.2 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 11–28 November 2021 | 1,015 | 16.5 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 19.4 | 8.0 | 9.0 | – | 3.0 | – | 5.0 | – | 2.9 |
| Vilmorus | 18–27 November 2021 | 1,000 | 19.3 | 17.6 | 8.7 | 27.3 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | – | – | – | 8.0 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 17 October – 5 November 2021 | 1,004 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 10.3 | 26.7 | 3.1 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 10.4 | – | 12.7 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–28 October 2021 | 1,015 | 17.4 | 13.2 | 9.8 | 19.5 | 7.4 | 11.4 | – | – | – | 4.4 | – | 2.1 |
| Vilmorus | 15–22 October 2021 | 1,000 | 16.7 | 16.1 | 9.8 | 28.9 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 2.2 | 5.2 | – | – | – | 12.2 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 17 September – 3 October 2021 | 1,004 | 15.5 | 15.1 | 7.8 | 25.7 | 4.1 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 10.2 | – | 10.2 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–26 September 2021 | 1,009 | 18.6 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 21.2 | 8.0 | 10.1 | – | 3.0 | – | – | – | 2.6 |
| Vilmorus | 9–16 September 2021 | 1,003 | 21.6 | 17.4 | 9.4 | 29.6 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | – | – | – | 8.0 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 24–31 August 2021 | 1,014 | 18.9 | 17.3 | 9.5 | 18.6 | 8.3 | 10.9 | – | 4.5 | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 20–31 August 2021 | 1,006 | 15.7 | 17.3 | 7.4 | 25.9 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | – | 8.6 | – | 8.6 |
| Vilmorus | 29 July – 5 August 2021 | 1,000 | 19.5 | 23.2 | 8.7 | 23.6 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 4.0 | – | – | – | 0.4 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–28 June 2021 | 1,003 | 20.8 | 22.8 | 6.3 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 2.7 | – | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| Vilmorus | 9–18 June 2021 | 1,000 | 20.2 | 25.9 | 8.9 | 22.8 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | – | – | – | 5.7 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 20 May – 2 June 2021 | 1,018 | 17.3 | 22.0 | 11.9 | 20.0 | 5.4 | 12.9 | 4.9 | – | – | 5.1 | – | 2.0 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–28 May 2021 | 1,011 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 12.6 | 2.7 | – | – | – | – | 1.0 |
| Vilmorus | 11–21 May 2021 | 1,004 | 24.5 | 26.8 | 7.3 | 16.9 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | – | – | – | 2.3 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 19–28 April 2021 | 1,006 | 23.7 | 23.1 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 3.6 | – | – | – | – | 0.6 |
| Vilmorus | 8–17 April 2021 | 1,001 | 29.2 | 26.5 | 6.7 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 7.0 | – | – | – | 2.7 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–23 March 2021 | 1,011 | 23.5 | 21.1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 3.9 | – | – | 3.0 | – | 2.4 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 17–26 February 2021 | 1,014 | 25.6 | 18.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 4.5 | – | – | 4.3 | – | 7.3 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 18–27 January 2021 | 1,013 | 27.2 | 16.1 | 6 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | – | – | 2.4 | – | 11.1 |
| Spinter tyrimai | 10–20 December 2020 | 1,007 | 23.3 | 19.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 4.6 | – | – | – | – | 3.6 |
| Baltijos tyrimai | 6–30 November 2020 | 1,004 | 22.7 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 4.2 | – | 3.7 |
| 2020 parliamentary election | 1,174,843 | 25.77 | 18.07 | 9.77 | 9.59 | 9.45 | 7.05 | 4.97 | 3.28 | 2.36 | 2.06 | – | 7.7 | |
Notes
- Young Lithuania 0.9%, Christian Union 0.5%, National Alliance 0.6%
- Young Lithuania 2.0%, Christian Union 0.5%, National Alliance 0.1%
- Lithuanian Green Party 2.4%, Young Lithuania 1.2%, Christian Union 0.6%, National Alliance 0.3%
- Lithuanian Green Party 2.4%
- Lithuanian Green Party 2.4%
- Lithuanian Green Party 1.6%
- Lithuanian Green Party 0.9%
- National Alliance 1.7%, Lithuanian Green Party 0.9%, hypothetically parties: United Lithuania 2.9%, Second Lithuania 1.3%, Lithuanian Family Movement 1.3%
References
- "Law on Elections to the Seimas". Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania. 14 May 2015. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
- "XIV-1030 Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucijos 56 straipsnio pakeitimo įstatymas".
- "XIV-1029 Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucijos 74 straipsnio pakeitimo įstatymas".
- "Konstitucinis Teismas R. Paksui vilties nesuteikė" [The constitutional court did not give R. Paksas hope]. Delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 20 March 2014. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
- "Rinkimų kodekso patvirtinimo, įsigaliojimo ir įgyvendinimo konstitucinio įstatymo projektas + Rin".
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