2016 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of North Carolina as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

March 15, 2016
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 60 47
Popular vote 622,915 467,018
Percentage 54.50% 40.86%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own North Carolina primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Clinton easily won the primary, though Sanders did outperform polls. Clinton had the in-state backing of Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, as well as Reps. Alma Adams and David Price.[1] Sanders, meanwhile, did not have any endorsements from members of Congress representing the state.[1] Clinton won 80% of African Americans.[2]

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54.5%
Bernie Sanders
40.9%
Others / Uncommitted
4.6%
Public Policy Polling[3]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 747

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
7%
High Point University/SurveyUSA[4]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 669

March 9–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
8%
WRAL/SurveyUSA[5]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 687

March 4–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
9%
Civitas[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 3-7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
15%
Elon University[7]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

February 15–17, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 16%
SurveyUSA[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 449

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
36%
No Preference 4%, Undecided 9%
Public Policy Polling[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.1
Sample size: 575

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Others / Undecided
13%
High Point[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 478

January 30 – February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Not Sure 15%
Public Policy Polling[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 461

January 18–19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Not Sure 10%
Civitas[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 13–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Undecided 17%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ± 2.8%
Sample size: 555

December 5–7, 2015 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
21%
Martin O'Malley
10%
Not Sure 9%
Elon University[14]

Margin of error: ± 4.32%
Sample size: 514

October 29 – November 2, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 2% Undecided/DK 13% Refused 0.5%
Public Policy Polling[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 421

October 23–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Lawrence Lessig
2%
Public Policy Polling[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 605

September 24–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton
37%
Joe Biden
30%
Bernie
Sanders
17%
Jim Webb 3%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, Not sure 10%
Elon University[17]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 427

September 17–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53.40%
Bernie Sanders
23.00%
Jim Webb
1.60%
Lincoln Chafee 0.70%, Lawrence Lessig 0.70%, Martin O'Malley 0.20%, Other 2.10%, Undecided/Don't know 17.10%, Refuse 1.20%
Public Policy Polling[18]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 477

August 12–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Jim Webb
5%
Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%
Public Policy Polling[19]

Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 286

July 2–6, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Jim Webb
7%
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 274

May 28–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Jim Webb
5%
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Survey USA

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 442

April 22–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden
8%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Other/Undecided 16%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 370

April 2–5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Martin O'Malley 5%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Civitas Institute

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

March 20–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Joe Biden
9%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Other/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

February 24–26, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden
11%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

January 29–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%
Joe Biden
18%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Bernie Sanders 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 381

December 4–7, 2014 Hillary Clinton
52%
Joe Biden
18%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Andrew Cuomo 4%, Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Suffolk

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 254

August 16–19, 2014 Hillary Clinton
57.09%
Joe Biden
14.96%
Elizabeth Warren
9.06%
Martin O'Malley 2.76%, Andrew Cuomo 1.97%, Undecided 11.42%, Refused 2.76%
Civitas Institute

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 336

July 28–29, 2014 Hillary Clinton
40%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Amy Klobuchar 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Won't vote in Democratic primary 15%, Undecided 14%, Refused 3%, Other 0%

Results

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 622,915 54.50% 60 8 68
Bernie Sanders 467,018 40.86% 47 2 49
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 12,122 1.06%
Rocky De La Fuente 3,376 0.30%
No preference 37,485 3.28%
Uncommitted 3 3
Total 1,142,916 100% 107 13 120
Sources: The Green Papers, North Carolina State board of Elections,
North Carolina Democratic Party - Official Delegation for Pledged Delegates

Results by county

County[2] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alamance53.7%7,37441.3%5,755
Alexander45.8%1,14844.8%1,123
Alleghany44.2%56344.8%571
Anson66.1%2,30726.2%914
Ashe46.4%1,21945.9%1,205
Avery41.4%32653.9%425
Beaufort55.6%2,93434.9%1,840
Bertie69.5%2,06525.4%756
Bladen59.6%3,44226.4%1,524
Brunswick60.1%7,19235.5%4,252
Buncombe35.4%17,60462.1%30,913
Burke46.1%3,51145.4%3,460
Cabarrus51.7%8,09644.3%6,931
Caldwell47.0%2,15645.9%2,108
Camden54.2%46834.5%298
Carteret48.5%2,94644.4%2,694
Caswell59.8%1,70131.1%885
Catawba51.2%5,31044.0%4,561
Chatham55.0%7,40640.9%5,510
Cherokee43.9%1,02443.7%1,021
Chowan61.8%97429.8%470
Clay52.8%48738.5%355
Cleveland55.9%4,88035.6%3,104
Columbus56.3%3,62831.1%2,002
Craven58.1%5,18735.7%3,184
Cumberland63.9%22,74431.0%11,052
Currituck47.8%78043.5%710
Dare42.5%2,00348.9%2,307
Davidson50.3%4,48943.5%3,878
Davie54.0%1,37740.4%1,031
Duplin61.2%3,03629.2%1,450
Durham57.5%35,84541.0%25,584
Edgecombe70.8%6,41122.7%2,058
Forsyth58.0%24,44639.8%16,779
Franklin59.4%4,95134.3%2,858
Gaston54.1%7,69740.3%5,738
Gates61.7%74929.3%356
Graham44.3%32140.7%295
Granville58.8%4,69334.0%2,715
Greene58.7%1,64329.4%822
Guilford56.0%37,88041.7%28,204
Halifax66.7%6,22424.8%2,313
Harnett55.1%4,65536.8%3,111
Haywood44.5%3,74846.0%3,873
Henderson47.0%4,81150.1%5,129
Hertford67.5%2,92622.2%961
Hoke59.7%3,52831.1%1,837
Hyde48.0%45940.5%388
Iredell50.9%5,88843.2%4,998
Jackson38.1%2,02257.0%3,021
Johnston52.1%7,99240.5%6,223
Jones58.0%91032.0%501
Lee54.6%3,22438.1%2,248
Lenoir64.1%4,73126.4%1,947
Lincoln51.3%2,81241.8%2,291
Macon47.9%1,54844.2%1,428
Madison34.5%1,20158.7%2,044
Martin61.8%2,46927.4%1,097
McDowell40.9%1,35349.0%1,622
Mecklenburg60.3%71,26538.3%45,224
Mitchell40.4%31457.9%450
Montgomery54.9%1,36635.5%885
Moore58.8%4,67937.0%2,948
Nash65.8%8,55428.2%3,664
New Hanover48.4%12,24048.6%12,276
Northampton68.4%3,19522.9%1,067
Onslow54.2%4,56038.2%3,213
Orange48.4%17,54649.9%18,096
Pamlico53.0%92238.9%676
Pasquotank65.2%2,47129.8%1,128
Pender56.4%2,88036.8%1,880
Perquimans51.4%71134.8%481
Person51.0%2,95437.1%2,150
Pitt57.0%11,85636.3%7,548
Polk47.7%1,09948.7%1,123
Randolph46.6%2,96945.8%2,914
Richmond57.1%2,94131.0%1,595
Robeson51.0%8,45731.4%5,206
Rockingham54.4%4,46436.5%3,000
Rowan52.7%5,03141.6%3,969
Rutherford46.0%2,38244.5%2,306
Sampson65.7%3,79026.9%1,554
Scotland63.0%2,67126.9%1,142
Stanly49.1%2,15341.4%1,813
Stokes47.8%1,43344.0%1,319
Surry47.5%2,38044.0%2,204
Swain41.0%66651.2%831
Transylvania45.8%1,79449.9%1,954
Tyrrell49.3%26636.5%197
Union55.8%7,63040.6%5,547
Vance64.0%4,56128.0%1,999
Wake53.4%77,92744.8%65,380
Warren70.0%2,82724.5%988
Washington62.1%1,37427.0%597
Watauga29.6%2,51468.5%5,811
Wayne62.5%7,54629.5%3,564
Wilkes50.4%2,10742.6%1,783
Wilson64.2%6,40829.4%2,935
Yadkin48.0%83245.2%783
Yancey40.5%1,13449.5%1,386
Total54.6%616,38340.8%460,316

Analysis

After North Carolina had sealed the deal on Clinton's dying 2008 presidential effort eight years prior by handing a double-digit win to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton managed a commanding 13-percentage-point-victory in North Carolina over Bernie Sanders in 2016. Clinton won both men 48-47, and women 59-37; she won both married and unmarried women voters in the state. While Sanders won 59–40 with younger voters, and 52-43 with white voters, Clinton won 64–30 with older voters and 80-19 with African American voters. Clinton swept all educational attainment levels and all income levels except those who made between $50k and $100k per year. Clinton won Democrats 65-34, but lost Independents 58-34 to Sanders. Clinton won among liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Old North State.

Clinton won in urban, Suburban, and rural areas of the state. She won Raleigh-Durham 55-42, the Charlotte area 60-39, Piedmont and central North Carolina 60-31, and Eastern North Carolina 58-34. Sanders performed strongly in Western North Carolina, which is whiter, conservative, more rural and considered to be part of Appalachia, winning 52–44. Outside of the western part of the state, Sanders won only three counties: New Hanover, home to Wilmington; the state's eighth most populated city, Dare, and Orange, the latter of which is home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

References

  1. Gass, Nick (March 15, 2016). "Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina Democratic primary". POLITICO. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  2. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  3. "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  4. SurveyUSA
  5. "Trump, Clinton Continue To Lead By Double Digits in NC" (PDF).
  6. High Point University. "HPU Poll: Clinton Leads Democratic Primary; Trump, Cruz and Rubio Have Most GOP Support". High Point University.
  7. "Trump Keeps Gaining in NC; Clinton Maintains Huge Lead" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. January 20, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  8. Dowdy, Demi (January 27, 2016). "Civitas Poll: Clinton Maintains Strong Lead among NC Democrats". Civitas Institute. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  9. "PPP NC poll" (PDF).
  10. "Presidential Primary Poll October 29 – November 2, 2015" (PDF). Elon University. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  11. "Clinton rising in North Carolina; Trump still leads" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. October 27, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  12. "Trump Steady in North Carolina; Biden Polls Well" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
  13. "Elon University Presidential Primary Poll September 17–21, 2015" (PDF). www.elon.edu. Retrieved September 24, 2015.
  14. "Trump Continues to Grow in North Carolina; Dem Race Steady" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
  15. "PPP NC" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
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