2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
The 2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Oklahoma. Due to term limits established by the Oklahoma Constitution, incumbent Democratic Governor Brad Henry could not seek re-election. The race had been hotly contested by both political parties, with several well-known Oklahomans announcing their candidacy up to two years before the election. This was the first time a woman challenged another woman for Governor of Oklahoma.
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 County results Fallin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Askins: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Oklahoma |
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 Government |
As both parties nominated female candidates (Jari Askins for the Democrats and Mary Fallin for the Republicans), and as no third-party or write-in candidate qualified for the ballot, Oklahoma was guaranteed its first-ever female governor. In 2008, Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature for the first ever; as they expanded these majorities in the 2010 elections and Fallin defeated Askins for the governorship, a Republican state government trifecta was established for the first time since statehood once Fallin was sworn in on January 10, 2011.
Askins carried only four counties: her home county of Stephens and neighboring Comanche, Cotton, and Jefferson. While Fallin won all other 73 counties (of which she flipped 70), her margins varied, ranging from narrow wins in much of Eastern Oklahoma to a 66-point victory in staunchly Republican Beaver County.
Fallin was the first Republican to win Atoka County, Choctaw County, Coal County, Haskell County, Hughes County, Johnston County, Latimer County, LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Okfuskee County, Pittsburg County, and Pushmataha County in a gubernatorial election since Oklahoma statehood. Fallin was the first non-Democrat to win Tillman County, which had voted for the Democratic candidate for governor in each election since Oklahoma statehood, thus breaking a 103-year streak of voting Democratic.
Democratic primary
Declared
- Jari Askins, incumbent Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma[1]
- Drew Edmondson, incumbent Attorney General of Oklahoma[2]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Drew Edmondson |
Jari Askins |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | July 16–21, 2010 | 49% | 33% |
| Sooner Survey | July 18–20, 2010 | 38% | 27% |
| SoonerPoll.com | May 25 – June 9, 2010 | 37% | 36% |
| SoonerPoll.com | January 2–5, 2010 | 46% | 36% |
Results
Results by county:
Askins
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Edmondson
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jari Askins | 132,591 | 50.28 | |
| Democratic | Drew Edmondson | 131,097 | 49.72 | |
| Total votes | 263,688 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Mary Fallin, former lieutenant governor and current Congresswoman for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district[4]
- Roger L. Jackson, retired businessman, former president of the Oklahoma Office Machine Dealers Association (OOMDA)[5]
- Randy Brogdon, state senator[6]
- Robert Hubbard, business owner of Piedmont, Oklahoma's "Hubbard Ranch Supply"[7]
Declined
- J. C. Watts, former Congressman from Oklahoma's 4th congressional district[8]
- Mick Cornett, Mayor of Oklahoma City
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Mary Fallin |
Randy Brogdon |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | July 16–21, 2010 | 56% | 18% |
| Sooner Survey | July 18–20, 2010 | 50% | 22% |
| SoonerPoll.com | May 25 – June 9, 2010 | 59% | 10% |
| SoonerPoll.com | January 2–5, 2010 | 68% | 16% |
Results
Results by county:
Fallin
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Brogdon
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mary Fallin | 136,477 | 54.79 | |
| Republican | Randy Brogdon | 98,170 | 39.41 | |
| Republican | Robert Hubbard | 8,132 | 3.26 | |
| Republican | Roger L. Jackson | 6,290 | 2.53 | |
| Total votes | 249,069 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Likely R (flip) | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[10] | Safe R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[11] | Safe R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Likely R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[13] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Mary Fallin (R) |
Jari Askins (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | October 23, 2010 | 56% | 39% |
| SoonerPoll.com | October 7, 2010 | 54% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 23, 2010 | 60% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 26, 2010 | 52% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 28, 2010 | 57% | 36% |
| SoonerPoll.com | July 16–21, 2010 | 46% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 30, 2010 | 55% | 32% |
| SoonerPoll.com | May 25 – June 9, 2010 | 49% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 24, 2010 | 51% | 37% |
| SoonerPoll.com | January 2–5, 2010 | 52% | 36% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–17, 2009 | 50% | 34% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mary Fallin | 625,506 | 60.45% | +26.95% | ||
| Democratic | Jari Askins | 409,261 | 39.55% | -26.95% | ||
| Total votes | 1,034,767 | 100.00% | N/A | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Atoka (Largest city: Atoka)
- Bryan (Largest city: Durant)
- Caddo (Largest city: Anadarko)
- Carter (Largest city: Ardmore)
- Coal (Largest city: Coalgate)
- Craig (Largest city: Vinita)
- Garvin (Largest city: Pauls Valley)
- Greer (Largest city: Mangum)
- Harmon (Largest city: Hollis)
- Johnston (Largest city: Tishomingo)
- Kiowa (Largest city: Hobart)
- Le Flore (Largest city: Poteau)
- Love (Largest city: Marietta)
- Marshall (Largest city: Madill)
- Mayes (Largest city: Pryor Creek)
- McCurtain (Largest city: Idabel)
- Murray (Largest city: Sulphur)
- Nowata (Largest city: Nowata)
- Okfuskee (Largest city: Okemah)
- Osage (Largest city: Hominy)
- Pawnee (Largest city: Cleveland)
- Pittsburg (Largest city: McAlester)
- Pontotoc (Largest city: Ada)
- Pushmataha (Largest city: Antlers)
- Seminole (Largest city: Seminole)
- Sequoyah (Largest city: Sallisaw)
- Tillman (Largest city: Frederick)
- Cherokee (Largest city: Tahlequah)
- Choctaw (Largest city: Hugo)
- Haskell (Largest city: Stigler)
- Hughes (Largest city: Holdenville)
- Latimer (Largest city: Wilburton)
- McIntosh (Largest city: Checotah)
- Muskogee (Largest city: Muskogee)
- Okmulgee (Largest city: Okmulgee)
- Ottawa (Largest city: Miami)
- Beckham (Largest city: Elk City)
- Delaware (Largest city: Grove)
- Washita (Largest city: New Cordell)
- Adair (Largest city: Stilwell)
- Alfalfa (Largest city: Helena)
- Blaine (Largest city: Watonga)
- Canadian (Largest city: Yukon)
- Creek (Largest city: Sapulpa)
- Custer (Largest city: Weatherford)
- Dewey (Largest city: Seiling)
- Ellis (Largest city: Shattuck)
- Garfield (Largest city: Enid)
- Grady (Largest city: Chickasaw)
- Grant (Largest city: Medford)
- Harper (Largest city: Laverne)
- Jackson (Largest city: Altus)
- Kay (Largest city: Ponca City)
- Kingfisher (Largest city: Kingfisher)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Chandler)
- Logan (Largest city: Guthrie)
- McClain (Largest city: Newcastle)
- Major (Largest city: Fairview)
- Noble (Largest city: Perry)
- Oklahoma (Largest city: Oklahoma City)
- Payne (Largest city: Stillwater)
- Pottawatomie (Largest city: Shawnee)
- Roger Mills (Largest city: Cheyenne)
- Rogers (Largest city: Claremore)
- Tulsa (Largest city: Tulsa)
- Wagoner (Largest city: Coewta)
- Washington (Largest city: Bartlesville)
- Woods (Largest city: Alva)
- Woodward (Largest city: Woodward)
References
- McNutt, Michael. "Oklahoma Lt. Gov. Jari Askins said she will run for governor in 2010." NewsOk.com, January 4, 2009.
- "Edmondson says he will run for governor in 2010".
- "SUMMARY RESULTS: Primary Election -- July 27, 2010". Oklahoma Election Board. Archived from the original on August 2, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2021.
- "Roger L. Jackson for Oklahoma Governor". Jacksonforokgov.com. Archived from the original on July 12, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Owasso Sen. Brogdon to run for governor". Tulsa World. April 18, 2009. Archived from the original on October 7, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- Estus, John, "Oklahoma candidate filing period marks start of busy campaign season", The Oklahoman, May 31, 2010.
- Casteel, Chris (May 22, 2009). "J.C. Watts rules out run for Oklahoma governor". The Oklahoman. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
- "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Election Results" (PDF). Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 11, 2010.
External links
- Oklahoma State Election Board
- Candidates for Oklahoma State Offices at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Oklahoma Governor from Follow the Money
- Oklahoma Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Oklahoma Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Oklahoma Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- News coverage from The Oklahoman
- Debates
- Oklahoma Gubernatorial Debate on C-SPAN, July 21, 2010
- Official campaign sites
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