2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018 to elect the Governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic Governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.[1]
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County results Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Buehler: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Oregon |
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The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.
Democratic primary
Declared
- Kate Brown, incumbent Governor[2]
- Ed Jones[3]
- Candace Neville[3]
Endorsements
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 324,541 | 81.9 | |
Democratic | Ed Jones | 33,464 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Candace Neville | 29,110 | 7.4 | |
Democratic | Write-ins | 8,912 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 396,027 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Declared
- Keenan Bohach[3]
- Knute Buehler, Orthopedic Surgeon, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012[11]
- Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016[12][13][14]
- Jonathan Edwards III[3]
- Brett Hyland[3]
- Jeff Smith, small business owner[15]
- David Stauffer[3]
- Jack Tracy[3]
- Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer[16]
Withdrew
Declined
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016[18][11][19]
- Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative[20]
- Mike McLane, House Minority Leader[21]
- Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016[22][23]
- Bill Post, state representative[20][11]
- Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014[24]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator (R-OR)[25][9]
- State legislators
- Cliff Bentz, state senator[26]
- Bill Hansell, state senator[27]
- Greg Barreto, state representative[26]
- Daniel Bonham, state representative[26]
- Sal Esquivel, state representative[9][28]
- Lynn Findley, state representative[26]
- Dallas Heard, state representative[29]
- Mike McLane, state representative[26]
- Ron Noble, state representative[26]
- Andy Olson, state representative[26]
- E. Werner Reschke, state representative[30]
- Gene Whisnant, state representative[31][9]
- Individuals
- Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[32]
- Antoinette Hatfield, former First Lady of Oregon[33]
- Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike[34][9]
- Organizations
- National Federation of Independent Business[35]
- Oregon Cattlemen's Association[36]
- Oregon Farm Bureau[36]
- Newspapers
Debates
Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Greg Wooldridge | |||
KXL-FM | May 11, 2018 | [51] | Invited | Invited | Invited |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
Greg Wooldridge |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) | May 3–6, 2018 | 438 | ± 4.7% | 33% | 25% | – | 8% | – | 33% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | April 19–22, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 24% | – | 12% | 6%[lower-alpha 1] | 20% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 628 | – | 23% | 23% | – | 4% | – | 50% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 168 | ± 3.9% | 28% | – | 8% | 31% | 6% | 26% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Knute Buehler | 144,103 | 45.9 | |
Republican | Sam Carpenter | 90,572 | 28.8 | |
Republican | Greg C. Wooldridge | 63,049 | 20.1 | |
Republican | Bruce Cuff | 4,857 | 1.5 | |
Republican | Jeff Smith | 4,691 | 1.5 | |
Republican | David Stauffer | 2,096 | 0.7 | |
Republican | Write-ins | 1,701 | 0.5 | |
Republican | Jonathan Edwards III | 861 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Keenan Bohach | 787 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Brett Hyland | 755 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Jack W. Tacy | 512 | 0.2 | |
Total votes | 313,984 | 100 |
Independent Party primary
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Independent | Write-ins | 13,497 | 56.8 | |
Independent | Patrick Starnes | 6,030 | 25.4 | |
Independent | Skye J. Allen | 2,405 | 10.6 | |
Independent | Dan Pistoresi | 1,846 | 7.8 | |
Total votes | 23,778 | 100.0 |
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
- Third party debate, featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[52] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[53] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[54] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[55] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[57] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[58] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[59][lower-alpha 2] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[60] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[61] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kate Brown (D) |
Knute Buehler (R) |
Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 4–30, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | 44.0% | 39.7% | 16.3% | Brown +4.3% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Knute Buehler (R) |
Patrick Starnes (IPO) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hoffman Research Group | October 29–30, 2018 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 42% | 4% | 2%[62] | 7% |
Emerson College | October 26–28, 2018 | 747 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 42% | – | 7% | 4% |
DHM Research | October 4–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 4% | 3%[63] | 17% |
Riley Research Associates | September 24 – October 7, 2018 | 356 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 45% | 4% | 3%[64] | – |
Clout Research (R) | September 20–23, 2018 | 679 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 41% | – | – | – |
Hoffman Research Group | September 12–13, 2018 | 680 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 2%[62] | 12% |
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) | September 6–11, 2018 | 2,831 | ± 2.0% | 41% | 43% | – | – | – |
Clout Research (R) | July 30–31, 2018 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
Gravis Marketing | July 16–17, 2018 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | – | 14% |
DHM Research | January 25–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 29% | – | – | 25% |
Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | – | – | 25% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | – | 11% | 8% |
- with Sam Carpenter
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Sam Carpenter (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | – | 26% |
- with Greg Wooldridge
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Greg Wooldridge (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 11% | 7% |
- with Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 34% | 17% | 8% |
Statewide results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 934,498 | 50.05% | -0.57% | |
Republican | Knute Buehler | 814,988 | 43.65% | +0.20% | |
Independent | Patrick Starnes | 53,392 | 2.86% | +0.42% | |
Libertarian | Nick Chen | 28,927 | 1.55% | -0.77% | |
Constitution | Aaron Auer | 21,145 | 1.13% | +0.13% | |
Progressive | Chris Henry | 11,013 | 0.59% | N/A | |
Write-in | 3,034 | 0.16% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 1,866,997 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
Results by congressional district
Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.
District | Kate Brown |
Knute Buehler |
Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 53.77% | 40.51% | Suzanne Bonamici |
2nd | 35.38% | 57.19% | Greg Walden |
3rd | 69.17% | 26.45% | Earl Blumenauer |
4th | 44.84% | 47.15% | Peter DeFazio |
5th | 46.02% | 47.97% | Kurt Schrader |
County results
County | Kate Brown
Democrat |
Votes | Knute Buehler
Republican |
Votes | Patrick Starnes
Independent |
Votes | Nick Chen
Libertarian |
Votes | Aaron Auer
Constitution |
Votes | Chris Henry
Progressive |
Votes | Write-in | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baker | 19.0% | 1,572 | 72.9% | 6,023 | 4.2% | 347 | 1.6% | 132 | 1.5% | 126 | 0.6% | 49 | 0.2% | 15 | 8,264 |
Benton | 60.1% | 26,592 | 33.9% | 14,990 | 2.8% | 1,225 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.8% | 357 | 0.7% | 293 | 0.1% | 53 | 44,231 |
Clackamas | 45.5% | 91,088 | 49.2% | 98,468 | 2.4% | 4,726 | 1.4% | 2,827 | 0.9% | 1,853 | 0.5% | 941 | 0.2% | 363 | 200,266 |
Clatsop | 48.0% | 8,909 | 44.7% | 8,294 | 3.3% | 616 | 1.6% | 305 | 1.4% | 259 | 0.8% | 140 | 0.2% | 35 | 18,558 |
Columbia | 38.7% | 9,519 | 52.6% | 12,953 | 4.0% | 975 | 1.9% | 480 | 2.0% | 481 | 0.7% | 167 | 0.2% | 42 | 24,617 |
Coos | 33.5% | 9,622 | 57.5% | 16,520 | 4.4% | 1,262 | 1.8% | 505 | 1.8% | 510 | 0.9% | 256 | 0.2% | 52 | 28,727 |
Crook | 19.8% | 2,285 | 73.8% | 8,516 | 3.6% | 418 | 1.0% | 110 | 1.2% | 140 | 0.4% | 42 | 0.2% | 25 | 11,536 |
Curry | 35.9% | 4,141 | 56.1% | 6,474 | 3.8% | 443 | 1.6% | 188 | 1.7% | 199 | 0.7% | 75 | 0.1% | 13 | 11,533 |
Deschutes | 42.3% | 40,676 | 52.0% | 49,983 | 2.9% | 2,764 | 1.4% | 1,353 | 0.8% | 766 | 0.5% | 460 | 0.1% | 97 | 96,099 |
Douglas | 24.0% | 11,824 | 65.8% | 32,413 | 5.0% | 2,481 | 1.5% | 738 | 2.7% | 1,326 | 0.7% | 368 | 0.2% | 88 | 49,238 |
Gilliam | 22.0% | 218 | 69.6% | 691 | 4.6% | 46 | 1.9% | 19 | 1.4% | 14 | 0.5% | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 993 |
Grant | 16.8% | 649 | 75.9% | 2,923 | 3.9% | 151 | 1.2% | 48 | 1.5% | 56 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.2% | 7 | 3,853 |
Harney | 16.5% | 584 | 76.7% | 2,722 | 3.6% | 126 | 0.8% | 29 | 1.8% | 63 | 0.6% | 20 | 0.1% | 3 | 3,547 |
Hood River | 59.9% | 6,485 | 35.0% | 3,789 | 2.5% | 271 | 1.3% | 136 | 0.7% | 81 | 0.5% | 55 | 0.1% | 11 | 10,828 |
Jackson | 41.4% | 42,207 | 50.7% | 51,623 | 4.1% | 4,196 | 1.7% | 1,720 | 1.3% | 1,313 | 0.7% | 716 | 0.1% | 132 | 101,907 |
Jefferson | 29.8% | 2,635 | 62.3% | 5,518 | 4.4% | 388 | 1.3% | 111 | 1.6% | 145 | 0.5% | 45 | 0.1% | 10 | 8,852 |
Josephine | 30.2% | 12,214 | 60.5% | 24,499 | 4.3% | 1,735 | 1.9% | 767 | 2.2% | 881 | 0.8% | 308 | 0.2% | 66 | 40,470 |
Klamath | 22.3% | 6,301 | 67.7% | 19,134 | 4.9% | 1,371 | 2.3% | 643 | 2.0% | 564 | 0.7% | 198 | 0.2% | 45 | 28,256 |
Lake | 13.4% | 476 | 78.0% | 2,774 | 4.4% | 155 | 1.5% | 52 | 2.3% | 81 | 0.4% | 14 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,557 |
Lane | 54.7% | 96,841 | 38.2% | 67,737 | 3.2% | 5,683 | 1.8% | 3,106 | 1.2% | 2,173 | 0.8% | 1,335 | 0.2% | 297 | 177,172 |
Lincoln | 52.1% | 12,610 | 40.8% | 9,884 | 3.4% | 825 | 1.6% | 391 | 1.2% | 302 | 0.7% | 164 | 0.2% | 43 | 24,219 |
Linn | 30.1% | 16,461 | 60.5% | 33,051 | 4.2% | 2,293 | 1.9% | 1,061 | 2.2% | 1,204 | 0.8% | 421 | 0.3% | 171 | 54,662 |
Malheur | 24.1% | 2,159 | 66.9% | 6,000 | 4.1% | 364 | 1.7% | 156 | 2.5% | 227 | 0.6% | 52 | 0.1% | 12 | 8,970 |
Marion | 43.5% | 55,238 | 49.9% | 63,323 | 2.8% | 3,511 | 1.7% | 2,100 | 1.4% | 1,831 | 0.5% | 650 | 0.3% | 325 | 126,978 |
Morrow | 22.5% | 844 | 67.5% | 2,534 | 4.3% | 163 | 1.8% | 68 | 3.0% | 111 | 0.8% | 29 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,754 |
Multnomah | 73.9% | 279,384 | 22.1% | 83,507 | 1.7% | 6,309 | 1.2% | 4,447 | 0.5% | 1,793 | 0.6% | 2,174 | 0.1% | 484 | 378,098 |
Polk | 41.6% | 15,529 | 51.8% | 19,341 | 2.9% | 1,076 | 1.6% | 589 | 1.3% | 491 | 0.6% | 206 | 0.2% | 83 | 37,315 |
Sherman | 19.3% | 190 | 74.7% | 736 | 3.5% | 34 | 0.7% | 7 | 1.5% | 15 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.1% | 1 | 985 |
Tillamook | 42.7% | 5,616 | 50.3% | 6,606 | 3.5% | 464 | 1.2% | 158 | 1.5% | 202 | 0.6% | 77 | 0.1% | 19 | 13,142 |
Umatilla | 29.4% | 7,085 | 63.0% | 15,178 | 3.7% | 885 | 1.7% | 419 | 1.6% | 393 | 0.5% | 117 | 0.1% | 31 | 24,108 |
Union | 24.5% | 2,877 | 67.9% | 7,983 | 3.8% | 441 | 1.4% | 162 | 1.8% | 209 | 0.5% | 60 | 0.2% | 24 | 11,756 |
Wallowa | 27.0% | 1,088 | 66.2% | 2,668 | 3.6% | 145 | 1.2% | 47 | 1.5% | 61 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.1% | 4 | 4,032 |
Wasco | 40.5% | 4,604 | 51.4% | 5,841 | 3.8% | 427 | 1.8% | 203 | 1.6% | 177 | 0.7% | 85 | 0.2% | 20 | 11,357 |
Washington | 55.5% | 137,886 | 39.2% | 97,286 | 2.2% | 5,535 | 1.7% | 4,229 | 0.8% | 2,010 | 0.5% | 1,161 | 0.1% | 372 | 248,479 |
Wheeler | 19.3% | 158 | 72.6% | 594 | 4.6% | 38 | 1.8% | 15 | 1.2% | 10 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 0 | 818 |
Yamhill | 39.1% | 17,931 | 53.3% | 24,412 | 3.3% | 1,503 | 1.9% | 885 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.6% | 287 | 0.2% | 81 | 45,820 |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
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- "Oregon Secretary Of State". secure.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved February 18, 2018.
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- "I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..." Twitter. October 7, 2017.
- E. Werner Reschke. "I support Dr. Knute Buehler for Governor". Twitter.
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- Knute Buehler. "Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
- Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
- Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2017). "Phil Knight contributes $500,000 to Republican gubernatorial candidate Knute Buehler". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
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- "Buehler for Governor". East Oregonian. October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
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- "Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor". Wooldridge For Governor. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
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- Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
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- "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
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- "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
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- "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
- Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
- Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
- Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results
External links
- Official campaign websites