Fossil fuel phase-out

The annual amount of coal plant capacity being retired increased into the mid-2010s.[15] However, the rate of retirement has since stalled,[15] and global coal phase-out is not yet compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.[16]

In parallel with retirement of some coal plant capacity, other coal plants are still being added, though the annual amount of added capacity has been declining since the 2010s.[17]

Coal use peaked in 2013[18] but to meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) coal use needs to halve from 2020 to 2030.[19] However as of 2017, coal supplied over a quarter of the world's primary energy[20] and about 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.[21] Phasing out coal has short-term health and environmental benefits which exceed the costs,[22] and without it the 2 °C target in the Paris Agreement cannot be met;[23] but some countries still favour coal,[24] and there is much disagreement about how quickly it should be phased out.[25][26]

As of 2018, 30 countries and many sub-national governments and businesses[27] had become members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, each making a declaration to advance the transition away from unabated coal power generation.[28] As of 2019, however, the countries which use the most coal have not joined, and some countries continue to build and finance new coal-fired power stations. A just transition from coal is supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.[29]

In 2019 the UN Secretary General said that countries should stop building new coal power plants from 2020 or face 'total disaster'.[30]

In 2020, although China built some plants, globally more coal power was retired than built: the UN Secretary General has said that OECD countries should stop generating electricity from coal by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.[31]

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill discharges 4.9 million barrels (780,000 m³)

Crude oil is refined into fuel oil, diesel and petrol. The refined products are primarily for transportation by conventional cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships. Popular alternatives are human-powered transport, public transport, electric vehicles, and biofuels.[32]

Natural gas well in Germany

Natural gas is widely used to generate electricity and has an emission intensity of about 500g/kWh. Heating is also a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Leaks are also a large source of atmospheric methane.

In some countries natural gas is being used as a temporary "bridge fuel" to replace coal, in turn to be replaced by renewable sources or a hydrogen economy.[33] However this "bridge fuel" may significantly extend the use of fossil fuel or strand assets, such as gas-fired power plants built in the 2020s, as the average plant life is 35 years.[34] Although natural gas assets are likely to be stranded later than oil and coal assets, perhaps not until 2050, some investors are concerned by reputational risk.[35]

Natural gas phase-out is progressing in some regions, for example with increasing use of hydrogen by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG)[36] and changes to building regulations to reduce the use of gas heating.[37][38]

Most of the millions[41] of premature deaths from air pollution are due to fossil fuels.[42] Pollution may be indoors e.g. from heating and cooking, or outdoors from vehicle exhaust. One estimate is that the proportion is 65% and the number 3.5 million each year.[43] According to Professor Sir Andy Haines at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine the health benefits of phasing out fossil fuels measured in money (estimated by economists using the value of life for each country) are substantially more than the cost of achieving the 2-degree C goal of the Paris Agreement.[44]

Fossil-fuel phase-out is the largest part of limiting global warming as they account for over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions,[45] but as of 2020 needs to move 4 times faster to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.[46] To achieve the climate goal the vast majority of fossil fuel reserves owned today by countries and companies must remain in the ground.[47][48]

The renewable energy transition can create jobs through the construction of new power plants and the manufacturing of the equipment that they need, as was seen in the case of Germany and the wind power industry.[49]

This can also be seen in the case of France and the nuclear power industry. France receives about 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy[50] and hundreds of jobs have been created for developing nuclear technology, construction workers, engineers, and radiation protection specialists.[51]

Countries which lack fossil fuel deposits, particularly coal but also petroleum and natural gas, often cite energy independence in their shift away from fossil fuels.

In Switzerland the decision to electrify virtually the entire railway network was taken in light of the two world wars (during which Switzerland was neutral) when coal imports became increasingly difficult. As Switzerland has ample hydropower resources, electric trains (as opposed to those driven by steam locomotives or diesel) could be run on domestic energy resources, reducing the need for coal imports.[52][53]

The 1973 oil crisis also led to a shift in energy policy in many places to become (more) independent of fossil fuel imports. In France the government announced an ambitious plan to expand nuclear power which by the end of the 1980s had shifted France's electricity sector almost entirely away from coal gas and oil and towards nuclear power.[54][55]

The trend towards encouraging cycling in the Netherlands[56][57] and Denmark[58][59] also coincided with the 1973 oil crisis and aimed in part at reducing the need for oil imports in the transportation sector.

In June 2021 Dr Sven Teske and Dr Sarah Niklas from the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney found that "existing coal, oil and gas production puts the world on course to overshoot Paris climate targets." In co-operation with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative they published a report entitled, Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy: An orderly wind down of coal, oil, and gas to meet the Paris Agreement. It analyses global renewable energy potential, and finds that "every region on Earth can replace fossil fuels with renewable energy to keep warming below 1.5°C and provide reliable energy access to all."[91]

In September 2021, the first scientific assessment of the minimum amount of fossil fuels that would need to be secured from extraction per region as well as globally, to allow for a 50% probability of limiting global warming by 2050 to 1.5 °C was provided.[92][93]

China has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2060, which would need a just transition for over 3 million workers in the coal-mining and power industry.[105] It is not yet clear whether China aims to phase-out all fossil fuel use by that date or whether a small proportion will still be in use with the carbon captured and stored.[105] In 2021, coal mining was ordered to run at maximum capacity.[106]

At the end of 2019, the European Union launched its European Green Deal. It included:

• a revision of the Energy Taxation Directive which is looking closely at fossil fuel subsidies and tax exemptions (aviation, shipping)
• a circular economy action plan,[107]
• a review and possible revision (where needed) of the all relevant climate-related policy instruments, including the Emissions Trading System
• a sustainable and smart mobility strategy
• potential carbon tariffs for countries that don't curtail their greenhouse gas pollution at the same rate.[18] The mechanism to achieve this is called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).[108]

It also leans on Horizon Europe, to play a pivotal role in leveraging national public and private investments. Through partnerships with industry and member States, it will support research and innovation on transport technologies, including batteries, clean hydrogen, low-carbon steel making, circular bio-based sectors and the built environment.[109]

The European Investment Bank contributed over €81 billion to help the energy industry between 2017 and 2022, in line with EU energy policy. This comprised nearly €76 billion for initiatives related to power grids, energy efficiency, and renewable energy throughout Europe and other parts of the world.[12]

India is confident of exceeding Paris COP commitments.[110] In the Paris Agreement, India has committed to an Intended Nationally Determined Contributions target of achieving 40% of its total electricity generation from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.[111]

Japan has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.[112]

The UK is legally committed to be carbon neutral by 2050, and moving away from the heating of homes by natural gas is likely to be the most difficult part of the country's fossil fuel phase out.[113] Alternative green recovery legislative plans have been proposed by multiple groups to phase out fossil fuels as fast as technology allows.[114]

Chief Joseph Dam near Bridgeport, Washington, US, is a major run-of-the-river station without a sizeable reservoir.

In 2015, hydroelectric energy generated 16.6% of the world's total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity.[144] In Europe and North America environmental concerns around land flooded by large reservoirs ended 30 years of dam construction in the 1990s. Since then large dams and reservoirs continue to be built in countries like China, Brazil and India. Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity and small hydro have become popular alternatives to conventional dams that may create reservoirs in environmentally sensitive areas.

In 2017, solar power provided 1.7% of total worldwide electricity production, growing at 35% per annum.[157] By 2020 the solar contribution to global final energy consumption is expected to exceed 1%.[158]

The 71.8 MW Lieberose Photovoltaic Park in Germany

Solar photovoltaic cells convert sunlight into electricity and many solar photovoltaic power stations have been built. The size of these stations has increased progressively over the last decade with frequent new capacity records. Many of these plants are integrated with agriculture and some use innovative tracking systems that follow the sun's daily path across the sky to generate more electricity than conventional fixed-mounted systems. Solar power plants have no fuel costs or emissions during operation.

The 150 MW Andasol solar power station is a commercial parabolic trough solar thermal power plant, located in Spain. The Andasol plant uses tanks of molten salt to store solar energy so that it can continue generating electricity even when the sun isn't shining.[159]

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight into a small beam. The concentrated heat is then used as a heat source for a conventional power plant. A wide range of concentrating technologies exists; the most developed are the parabolic trough, the concentrating linear fresnel reflector, the Stirling dish and the solar power tower. Various techniques are used to track the Sun and focus light. In all of these systems a working fluid is heated by the concentrated sunlight, and is then used for power generation or energy storage.[160]

The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report identifies nuclear energy as one of the technologies that can provide electricity with less than 5% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal power.[161] There are more than 60 nuclear reactors shown as under construction in the list of Nuclear power by country with China leading at 23. Globally, more nuclear power reactors have closed than opened in recent years but overall capacity has increased.[162] China has stated its plans to double nuclear generation by 2030. India also plans to greatly increase its nuclear power. The Manhattan 2 Project has presented a report that describes how to significantly increase nuclear power via factory automation.

Several countries have enacted laws to cease construction on new nuclear power stations. Several European countries have debated nuclear phase-outs and others have completely shut down some reactors. Three nuclear accidents have influenced the slowdown of nuclear power: the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the United States, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in the USSR, and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. Following the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany has permanently shut down eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022.[163] Italy voted overwhelmingly to keep their country non-nuclear.[164] Switzerland and Spain have banned the construction of new reactors.[165] Japan's prime minister has called for a dramatic reduction in Japan's reliance on nuclear power.[166] Taiwan's president did the same. Shinzō Abe, prime minister of Japan since December 2012, announced a plan to restart some of the 54 Japanese nuclear power plants and to continue some nuclear reactors under construction.

As of 2016, countries such as Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Malaysia, New Zealand and Norway have no nuclear power stations and remain opposed to nuclear power.[167][168] Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland are phasing-out their nuclear power.[162][168][169][170] Despite this, most pathways for spurring a fossil fuel phase-out that keeps pace with global electricity demands include the expansion of nuclear power, according to the IPCC.[171] Likewise, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe has stated that global climate objectives would likely not be met without nuclear expansion.[172]

Cost overruns, construction delays, the threat of catastrophic accidents, and regulatory hurdles often make nuclear power plant expansion practically infeasible. Some companies and organisations have proposed plans aimed at mitigating the cost, duration, and risk of nuclear power plant construction. NuScale Power, for example, has received regulatory approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a light-water reactor that would theoretically limit the risk of accidents and could be manufactured for less than traditional nuclear plants.[173][174] The Energy Impact Center's OPEN100, a platform that provides open-source blueprints for the construction of a nuclear plant with a 100-megawatt pressurised water reactor, claims that its model could be built in as little as two years for $300 million. In both plans, the ability to mass manufacture small modular reactors would theoretically cut down on construction time.[173][175]

Biomass is biological material from living, or recently living organisms, most often referring to plants or plant-derived materials.[176] As a renewable energy source, biomass can either be used directly, or indirectly – once or converted into another type of energy product such as biofuel. Biomass can be converted to energy in three ways: thermal conversion, chemical conversion, and biochemical conversion.

Using biomass as a fuel produces air pollution in the form of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, NOx (nitrogen oxides), VOCs (volatile organic compounds), particulates and other pollutants at levels above those from traditional fuel sources such as coal or natural gas in some cases (such as with indoor heating and cooking).[177][178][179] Use of wood biomass as a fuel can also produce fewer particulate and other pollutants than open burning as seen in wildfires or direct heat applications.[180] Black carbon – a pollutant created by combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass – is possibly the second largest contributor to global warming.[181]^: 56–57 In 2009 a Swedish study of the giant brown haze that periodically covers large areas in South Asia determined that it had been principally produced by biomass burning, and to a lesser extent by fossil fuel burning.[182] Denmark has increased the use of biomass and garbage,[183] and decreased the use of coal.[184]

Biofuels, in the form of liquid fuels derived from plant materials, are entering the market. However, many of the biofuels that are currently being supplied have been criticised for their adverse impacts on the natural environment, food security, and land use.[196][197]

In 2023, Pew commissioned a poll that estimated 31% of Americans were ready to phase out the use of oil, coal and natural gas completely, 32% wanted to phase out fossil fuel eventually and 35% said they never want fossil fuel to be phased out.[199]

• US politician Al Gore stated:[200]

If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and sequestration.

• Eric Schmidt, then CEO of Google, called for replacing all fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy in twenty years.[201]

The most effective method of mitigating peak oil is to use renewable or alternative energy sources in place of petroleum.

Iceland was the first country to suggest transitioning to 100% renewable energy, using hydrogen for vehicles and its fishing fleet, in 1998, but the actual progress has been very limited.[208]

Because most oil is consumed for transportation[209] most mitigation discussions revolve around transportation issues.

While there is some interchangeability, the alternative energy sources available tend to depend on whether the fuel is being used in static or mobile applications.

Although oil and diesel still generates a small share of global electricity, some Middle East oil producing countries are replacing that with solar power, as it is more profitable to export the oil.[220]

Due to its high energy density and ease of handling, oil has a unique role as a transportation fuel. There are, however, a number of possible alternatives. Among the biofuels the use of bioethanol and biodiesel is already established to some extent in some countries.

The use of hydrogen fuel is another alternative under development in various countries, alongside, hydrogen vehicles[221] though hydrogen is actually an energy storage medium, not a primary energy source, and consequently the use of a non-petroleum source would be required to extract the hydrogen for use. Though hydrogen is currently outperformed in terms of cost and efficiency by battery powered vehicles[222], there are applications where it would come in useful. Short haul ferries and very cold climates are two examples. Hydrogen fuel cells are about a third as efficient as batteries and double the efficiency of petrol vehicles.

Electric vehicles powered by batteries are another alternative, and these have the advantage of having the highest well-to-wheels efficiency rate of any energy pathway and thus would allow much greater numbers of vehicles than any other methods. In addition, even if the electricity was sourced from coal-fired power plants, two advantages would remain: first it is cheaper to sequester carbon from a few thousand smokestacks than it is to retrofit hundreds of millions of vehicles, and second encouraging the use of electric vehicles allows a further pathway for scaling up of renewable energy sources.

The Airbus A380 flew on alternative fuel for the first time on 1 February 2008. Boeing also plans to use alternative fuel on the 747.[223] Because some biofuels such as ethanol contains less energy, more "tankstops" might be necessary for such planes.

The US Air Force is currently in the process of certifying its entire fleet to run on a 50/50 blend of synthetic fuel derived from the Fischer–Tropsch process and JP-8 jet fuel.[224]

When alternative fuels are not available, the development of more energy efficient vehicles becomes an important mitigant. Some ways of decreasing the oil used in transportation include increasing the use of bicycles, public transport, carpooling, electric vehicles, and diesel and hybrid vehicles with higher fuel efficiency.

More comprehensive mitigations include better land use planning through smart growth to reduce the need for private transportation, increased capacity and use of mass transit, vanpooling and carpooling,[225] bus rapid transit, remote work, and human-powered transport from current levels.[226] Rationing and driving bans are also forms of reducing private transportation.[225] The higher oil prices of 2007 and 2008 caused United States drivers to begin driving less in 2007 and to a much greater extent in the first three months of 2008.[204][205]

In order to deal with potential problems from peak oil, Colin Campbell has proposed the Rimini protocol, a plan which among other things would require countries to balance oil consumption with their current production.