Proposed Russian annexation of South Ossetia

In 1992, a referendum on the independence of South Ossetia was held. A question on whether South Ossetia should join Russia was also included. The referendum was approved by an overwhelming majority of the voters; only 57 of the 53,441 votes were against these prospects.[2]

In April 2012, after his victory in the 2012 South Ossetian presidential election, the newly elected President of South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov promised that he would keep developing South Ossetia's relationship with Russia and that his goal was "to make the long-standing dream of a united North and South Ossetia come true".[4]

In January 2014, some months before the 2014 South Ossetian parliamentary election that was to be held on June of that year, prominent South Ossetian politician Anatoly Bibilov proposed the organization of a new referendum to unite Russia's North Ossetia and South Ossetia. He criticized the planned Treaty on Union Relations and Integration between Russia and South Ossetia for not pretending as much integration with Russia as he desired.[5]

On 19 October 2015, during a meeting with the Russian politician Vladislav Surkov, Tibilov stated that another referendum on annexing South Ossetia into Russia could be made in the future. It is possible that he chose this moment to propose it as the international community was at the time focused on the Syrian civil war, meaning that his proposal would cause less scandal than the one the Russian annexation of Crimea did back in 2014.[6]

In April 2016, the proposal resurfaced, as Tibliov said that a referendum to change the Constitution of South Ossetia in order to make it possible for the South Ossetian leadership to ask for the region's incorporation into Russia in the future was planned to take place before August that year. The part of the constitution would be more specifically the 10th article, which stated that the republic was free to enter in alliances with other countries and to hand over part of its powers to said alliances. Had it been changed, the President of South Ossetia could have legally asked for Russia to annex the country once given approval by the Parliament of South Ossetia.[7] However, on May of that year, Tibilov and Bibilov, then the speaker of the South Ossetian parliament, issued a joint statement saying that such a referendum would only take place in 2017, following the 2017 South Ossetian presidential election.[5]

In 2017, Bibilov, now as the President of South Ossetia after his victory on the 2017 election, said that while there was still intention from his part to hold a referendum on joining Russia in South Ossetia, there were still possibilities of postponing it.[8]

On 30 March 2022, on a televised address, Bibilov, still as president of South Ossetia, said that the republic would take legal steps to prepare to join the Russian Federation. He stated that "I believe that unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the aspiration of the people" and that Russia is South Ossetia's "historical homeland". He later clarified to Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyov that what he meant was organizing another referendum, which could be held after 10 April, the day of the 2022 South Ossetian presidential election.[9] All this came after South Ossetia sent soldiers from the Russian military base in Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, to assist Russia on its invasion of Ukraine. Many of these refused to fight and returned to South Ossetia,[10] and the decision of sending soldiers to Ukraine was also not well received in South Ossetia itself, which put pressure over Bibilov in regards to the then incoming election.[9]

Relevant political figures in North Ossetia were highly receptive of the possibility of South Ossetia joining Russia. Bibilov, posteriorly to his 30 March address, stated that North Ossetia and South Ossetia could unite and become one single Ossetia in the case that the latter was annexed by Russia. Sergey Menyaylo, Head of North Ossetia, expressed himself in favour of an Ossetian unification, and so did Vitaly Cheldiev, deputy of the Parliament of North Ossetia.[11] Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin Press Secretary (that is, the spokesperson of the Presidential Administration of Russia), also commented on the issue, declaring that while "no legal or any other action has been taken in this respect", "we treat the expression of the opinion of the people of South Ossetia with respect".[12] On the other hand, in Georgia, this idea was strongly rejected. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, David Zalkaliani, stated that "it is unacceptable to talk about a referendum when this territory is occupied by Russia". Beka Davituliani, a member of the Parliament of Georgia from the then ruling political party Georgian Dream, stated that South Ossetia's calls for a referendum were a provocation.[13]

On 8 May, the second round of the 2022 South Ossetian presidential election took place, and Bibilov was defeated by Alan Gagloev.[14] Gagloev had been regarded by observers as less supportive of the idea of holding a referendum to join Russia, saying that Russia at the time was "still busy with other issues, I think with more serious ones". He also said that the initiative had not been properly organized with Russia and that such a one-sided move could "discredit Russia's image in South Ossetia".[15] Still, Gagloev stated that a referendum would still be held after having been elected. He said that it would happen "as soon as the right time comes" and declared that "South Ossetia has been and is ready today to join the Russian Federation".[16] Later, on 13 May, Bibilov, still as incumbent president, announced that a referendum on merging South Ossetia into Russia would take place on 17 July 2022.[17] However, on 30 May, Gagloev said the referendum would be suspended until consultations with Russia were complete.[18]