Saanich—Gulf Islands

Saanich—Gulf Islands is a federal electoral district in British Columbia, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. It is named for its geographical location across the Gulf Islands and Saanich Peninsula in the Vancouver Island region.

Saanich—Gulf Islands
British Columbia electoral district
Saanich—Gulf Islands in relation to other electoral districts in the Vancouver Island area
Federal electoral district
LegislatureHouse of Commons
MP
 
 		 
Elizabeth May
Green
District created1987
First contested1988
Last contested2021
District webpageprofile, map
Demographics
Population (2011)[1]104,285
Electors (2021)93,538
Area (km²)[1]518
Pop. density (per km²)201.3
Census division(s)Capital
Census subdivision(s)Saanich, Central Saanich, Sidney, North Saanich, Capital F, Capital G, Capital H, Cole Bay 3, Union Bay 4, East Saanich 2, South Saanich 1

Demographics
Panethnic groups in Saanich—Gulf Islands (2011−2021)
Panethnic
group		 2021[2] 2016[3] 2011[4]
Pop. % Pop. % Pop. %
European[lower-alpha 1] 88,690 79.64% 85,125 80.99% 85,695 83.94%
East Asian[lower-alpha 2] 8,705 7.82% 8,175 7.78% 6,740 6.6%
Indigenous 4,825 4.33% 4,675 4.45% 3,885 3.81%
South Asian 3,820 3.43% 3,285 3.13% 2,350 2.3%
Southeast Asian[lower-alpha 3] 2,345 2.11% 1,655 1.57% 1,330 1.3%
African 860 0.77% 705 0.67% 640 0.63%
Latin American 785 0.7% 530 0.5% 490 0.48%
Middle Eastern[lower-alpha 4] 670 0.6% 440 0.42% 530 0.52%
Other[lower-alpha 5] 660 0.59% 530 0.5% 440 0.43%
Total responses 111,360 98.08% 105,110 97.92% 102,085 97.89%
Total population 113,541 100% 107,339 100% 104,285 100%
Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses.
Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries.

More than 21 percent of Saanich—Gulf Islands' residents are immigrants, and more than 19 percent are older than 65, making this the riding with the third largest senior population in Canada. The riding has a median age of 48.3, making it the riding with the highest median age in Canada.[5] The average family income is $70,814; unemployment is 5.9 percent.

According to the Canada 2016 Census; 2013 representation

Languages: 83.8% English, 2.3% Mandarin, 2.1% Cantonese, 1.5% German, 1.5% French, 1.2% Punjabi
Religions (2011): 46.9% Christian (12.2% Catholic, 10.6% Anglican, 7.8% United Church, 2.2% Baptist, 1.7% Lutheran, 1.5% Presbyterian, 1.1%% Pentecostal, 10.0% Other), 1.3% Buddhist, 1.2% Sikh, 47.3% No religion[6]
Median income (2015): $37,376
Average income (2015): $49,898

Geography

The riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands consists of the north part of the Municipality of Saanich, as well as the municipalities of Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Sidney on Vancouver Island. The district also includes a number of the southern Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, the Pender Islands, Galiano Island, Mayne Island and Saturna Island. The district's southeastern border runs along the University of Victoria.

History

The electoral district was created in 1987 from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands ridings.

The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution concluded that the electoral boundaries of Saanich—Gulf Islands should be adjusted, and a modified electoral district of the same name will be contested in future elections.[7] The redefined Saanich—Gulf Islands loses a small portion of its current territory in the urbanized portion of Saanich to the new district of Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke. These new boundaries were legally defined in the 2013 representation order, which came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which was held 19 October 2015.[8]

Political geography

Despite the usually close vote between the various right-leaning parties, the Canadian Alliance, Reform and Conservative parties have consistently won here from 1993 to 2011. Since 1953, the riding and its predecessor, Esquimalt—Saanich, have only gone to a non-conservative candidate five times: 1968 to Liberal David Anderson, in 1988 to New Democrat Lynn Hunter, and in 2011, 2015 and 2019 to Green party leader Elizabeth May, who in 2015 won every poll-district within the constituency. The 1988 Conservative loss is attributed to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the new Reform party. Despite a Conservative majority in 2011, the Greens won their very first elected seat here, and has since become their only stronghold in the country. The peninsular portion of the riding is more competitive, with significant support for all parties except the Liberals. However, the Gulf Islands have probably the strongest Green support in the country, with many voters being environmentally conscious, moderate retirees, as well as a notable artist population. This, combined with a very popular MP in leader Elizabeth May, Saanich Gulf Islands becoming the safest Green riding. Even with the Green collapse nationally in 2021, May held on with 37%, although it was her lowest voteshare in the riding.

Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:

Party Association name President HQ address HQ city
Conservative Saanich—Gulf Islands Conservative Association Ryan T. Trelford Post Office Box 606 Sidney
Green Saanich—Gulf Islands Green Party EDA Dan Kells Post Office Box 20076 Sidney
Liberal Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal Liberal Association Sulo Saravanabawan 460-580 Hornby Street Vancouver
New Democratic Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal NDP Riding Association Sabina Singh Saanich

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following Members of Parliament:

Parliament Years Member Party
Saanich—Gulf Islands
Riding created from Esquimalt—Saanich
and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands
34th  1988–1993     Lynn Hunter New Democratic
35th  1993–1997     Jack Frazer Reform
36th  1997–2000 Gary Lunn
 2000–2000     Alliance
37th  2000–2003
 2003–2004     Conservative
38th  2004–2006
39th  2006–2008
40th  2008–2011
41st  2011–2015     Elizabeth May Green
42nd  2015–2019
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–present

Current Member of Parliament

Its Member of Parliament is current and former Green Party leader Elizabeth May. She was first elected in 2011 and is the first Green MP to be elected to the House of Commons.[9] She defeated Conservative Incumbent and cabinet minister Gary Lunn.[10][11][12]

Election results
Graph of election results in Saanich—Gulf Islands (1988-,minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)
2021 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
GreenElizabeth May24,64837.62-11.47$85,326.87
ConservativeDavid Busch14,77522.55+2.32$91,482.76
LiberalSherri Moore-Arbour12,05618.40+1.7847,983.06
New DemocraticSabina Singh11,95918.25+5.55$44,510.15
People'sDavid Hilderman1,9432.97+1.61$0.00
CommunistDock Currie1410.22-$0.00
Total valid votes/Expense limit 65,52299.43–$121,248.58
Total rejected ballots 3740.57
Turnout 65,89670.45-4.18
Eligible voters 93,538
Green hold Swing
Source: Elections Canada[13]
2019 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
GreenElizabeth May33,45449.09-5.31$87,482.73
ConservativeDavid Busch13,78420.23+0.77none listed
LiberalRyan Windsor11,32616.62-0.08none listed
New DemocraticSabina Singh8,65712.70+3.63none listed
People'sRon Broda9291.36–none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,15099.53
Total rejected ballots 3230.47+0.18
Turnout 68,47374.63-4.05
Eligible voters 91,752
Green hold Swing -3.04
Source: Elections Canada[14][15]
2015 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
GreenElizabeth May37,07054.40+7.99$191,615.15
ConservativeRobert Boyd13,26019.46−17.02$148,289.09
LiberalTim Kane11,38016.70+10.64$56,913.03
New DemocraticAlicia Cormier6,1819.07−1.97$52,539.33
LibertarianMeghan Jess Porter2490.37–$231.52
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,14099.71 $223,670.30
Total rejected ballots 2010.29–
Turnout 68,34178.68–
Eligible voters 86,863
Green hold Swing +12.50
Source: Elections Canada[16][17][18]
2011 federal election redistributed results[19]
Party Vote  %
  Green28,99346.42
  Conservative22,78536.48
  New Democratic6,89811.04
  Liberal3,7876.06
2011 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
GreenElizabeth May31,89046.33+35.88$87,738
ConservativeGary Lunn24,54435.66−7.77$89,604
New DemocraticEdith Loring-Kuhanga8,18511.89+6.20$66,273
LiberalRenée Hetherington4,2086.11−33.25$50,002
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,827100.0   $293,617
Total rejected ballots 1600.23
Turnout 68,98775.25
Eligible voters 91,673
Green gain from Conservative Swing +21.82
2008 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeGary Lunn27,98843.43+6.28
LiberalBriony Penn25,36739.36+13.28
GreenAndrew Lewis6,73210.45+0.51
New DemocraticJulian West3,6675.69−20.85
LibertarianDale P. Leier2460.38–
Western BlockPatricia O'Brien1950.3+0.03
Canadian ActionJeremy Arney1390.2–
Christian HeritageDan Moreau1140.2–
Total valid votes 64,448100.0  
Total rejected ballots 1790.27
Turnout 64,63970.40
Conservative hold Swing −3.50
Julian West was selected as the New Democratic Party candidate for the 2008 election, but withdrew after the filing deadline following a scandal.[20] Due to the late withdrawal his name remained on the ballot.
2006 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
ConservativeGary Lunn24,41637.15+2.58$80,272
New DemocraticJennifer Burgis17,45526.54+4.96$50,412
LiberalSheila Orr17,14426.08−0.70$79,489
GreenAndrew Lewis6,5339.94−6.77$19,061
Western BlockPatricia O'Brien1830.27–$0
Total valid votes 65,721100.0  
Total rejected ballots 1340.20
Turnout 65,85573.2
Conservative hold Swing −1.19
2004 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
ConservativeGary Lunn22,05034.57−18.86$81,613
LiberalDavid Mulroney17,08226.78−5.51$61,819
New DemocraticJennifer Burgis13,76321.58+13.56$40,318
GreenAndrew Lewis10,66216.71+11.20$79,731
IndependentMary Moreau2140.33–$12
Total valid votes 63,771100.00  
Total rejected ballots 1590.25
Turnout 63,93073.97
Conservative hold Swing −6.68
Conservative change is from a combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative votes.
2000 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
AllianceGary Lunn25,39243.15+0.09$61,497
LiberalKaren Knott19,00232.29+0.82$63,669
Progressive ConservativeDon Page6,04910.28+2.76$10,385
New DemocraticPat O'Neill4,7218.02−6.31$9,666
GreenWally Du Temple3,2435.51+2.77$7,217
Natural LawKathleen Lapeyrouse2170.36−0.07$100
IndependentDan Moreau1230.20–
CommunistCharley Stimac880.14–$189
Total valid votes 58,835100.00  
Total rejected ballots 1650.28
Turnout 59,00070.60
Alliance hold Swing −0.36
Canadian Alliance change is based on the Reform Party.
1997 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
ReformGary Lunn24,27543.06+5.91$61,075
LiberalClark Roberts17,74231.47+5.45$59,743
New DemocraticChuck Beyer8,08014.33−4.53$29,672
Progressive ConservativeMarilyn Loveless4,2437.52−4.00$23,349
GreenJulia Lerner1,5462.74–$745
Natural LawAndy Guest2480.43−0.31$321
Canadian ActionValerie Rampone2340.41–$4,335
Total valid votes 56,368100.00  
Total rejected ballots 1810.32
Turnout 56,54974.26
Reform hold Swing +0.23
1993 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ReformJack Frazer26,01637.15+24.67
LiberalAlex Phillips18,22626.02+8.40
New DemocraticLynn Hunter13,20718.86-16.54
Progressive ConservativeMarilyn Loveless8,07011.52-21.94
NationalJudith Rayburn3,7305.33–
Natural LawAndy Guest5210.74–
IndependentC.R. Bob Ward2150.31–
Canada PartyArleigh Rolind520.07–
Total valid votes 70,037100.0  
Reform gain from New Democratic Swing +8.14
1988 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes%
New DemocraticLynn Hunter23,16835.40
Progressive ConservativePatrick D. Crofton21,90033.46
LiberalKathryn Clout11,53417.62
ReformBob Slavick8,16512.48
IndependentPatrick Kelly2160.33
LibertarianWilliam St. John Buckler2140.33
IndependentDoug Christie1720.26
CommunistErnie Knott780.12
Total valid votes 65,447100.0  
This riding was created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands, which elected a Progressive Conservative and a New Democrat, respectively, in the previous election. Patrick Crofton was the incumbent from Esquimalt—Saanich.

See also

References
  • "Saanich—Gulf Islands (Code 59024) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 6, 2011.
  • Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1987–1996
  • Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1996–2005
  • Expenditures – 2004
  • Expenditures – 2000
  • Expenditures – 1997

Notes
  1. Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.
  2. Statistic includes total responses of "Chinese", "Korean", and "Japanese" under visible minority section on census.
  3. Statistic includes total responses of "Filipino" and "Southeast Asian" under visible minority section on census.
  4. Statistic includes total responses of "West Asian" and "Arab" under visible minority section on census.
  5. Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.
  1. Statistics Canada: 2011
  2. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  3. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  4. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  5. "Census « Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections". Punditsguide.ca. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
  6. "2011 National Household Survey Profile - Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". May 8, 2013.
  7. Final Report – British Columbia
  8. Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts
  9. Hunter, Justine (May 3, 2011). "Elizabeth May wins first seat for Greens". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on May 7, 2011. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  10. Chamberlain, Cindy E. Harnett, Judith Lavoie, Carla Wilson and Adrian. "Elizabeth May makes political history as first Green MP; unseats cabinet minister". www.vancouversun.com. Retrieved March 30, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  11. Wintonyk, Darcy (May 2, 2011). "Green Party makes history: Elizabeth May wins seat". British Columbia CTV News. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  12. Geyer, Felix von (May 3, 2011). "Canada's Green party looks to bright future following Elizabeth May victory | Felix von Geyer". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  13. "Election Night Results – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  14. "List of confirmed candidates". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 4, 2019.
  15. "Official Voting Results results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 7, 2021.
  16. Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Saanich—Gulf Islands, 30 September 2015
  17. Official Voting Results – Saanich—Gulf Islands
  18. "Elections Canada Online – Final Candidates Election Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015.
  19. Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
  20. McCulloch, Sandra (September 24, 2008). "NDP candidate who quit over nudity will not be replaced". The Vancouver Sun. Retrieved September 20, 2017.

48.695°N 123.403°W / 48.695; -123.403

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