Demography of Scotland

Life expectancy in Scotland over time

Table of birth and mortality since 1900

(c)= 2022 census results.

• Source: General Register Office for Scotland Birth and Mortality statistics from 1900

Current vital statistics

[9]

Period	Live births	Deaths	Natural increase
January - September 2022	35,060	45,966	-10,906
January - September 2023	34,611	46,743	-12,132
Difference	-449 (-1.28%)	+777 (+1.69%)	-1,226

Largest cities or towns in Scotland (mid-2020 est.)[10]
	Rank	Name	Council area	Pop.	Rank	Name	Council area	Pop.
Glasgow Edinburgh	1	Glasgow	Glasgow City	632,350	11	Kirkcaldy	Fife	50,370	Aberdeen Dundee
	2	Edinburgh	City of Edinburgh	506,520	12	Inverness	Highland	47,790
	3	Aberdeen	Aberdeen City	198,590	13	Perth	Perth and Kinross	47,350
	4	Dundee	Dundee City	148,210	14	Kilmarnock	East Ayrshire	46,970
	5	Paisley	Renfrewshire	77,270	15	Ayr	South Ayrshire	46,260
	6	East Kilbride	South Lanarkshire	75,310	16	Coatbridge	North Lanarkshire	43,950
	7	Livingston	West Lothian	56,840	17	Greenock	Inverclyde	41,280
	8	Dunfermline	Fife	54,990	18	Glenrothes	Fife	38,360
	9	Hamilton	South Lanarkshire	54,480	19	Stirling	Stirling	37,910
	10	Cumbernauld	North Lanarkshire	50,530	20	Airdrie	North Lanarkshire	36,390

Places of birth given by respondents to the 2001 and 2011 censuses were as follows:

Country of birth	2001[11]		2011[12]
	Number	%	Number	%
Scotland	4,410,400	87.13%	4,411,884	83.32%
England	408,948	8.08%	459,486	8.68%
Wales	16,623	0.33%	17,381	0.33%
Northern Ireland	33,528	0.66%	36,655	0.69%
United Kingdom UK part not specified	941	0.02%
Ireland	21,774	0.43%	22,952	0.43%
Total from all EU Member Countries	41,836	0.83%	137,285	2.59%
EU Other Member Countries (joined pre 2001)			59,031	1.11%
EU Other Member Countries (joined post 2001)			78,254	1.48%
Other Countries	127,926	2.53%	209,760	3.96%
Total	5,062,011	100.00%	5,295,403	100.00%

Below are the five largest overseas-born groups in Scotland according to 2019 ONS estimates.[13]

Country of birth	Estimated population, 2019
Poland	80,000
India	25,000
Germany	24,000
Pakistan	23,000
Ireland	18,000

Population pyramid from 1981 to projected pyramid in 2043

Population pyramid of Scotland as of 2020

The age distribution based on the 2011 census was as follows.[14]

Ethnic demography of Scotland 1981 – 2011

The 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses recorded the following ethnic groups:

Demography of Scotland

Ethnic group	1981 estimations[15]		1991[16][17]		2001[18]		2011[19]
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
White: Total	4,908,140	99.1%	4,935,933	98.74%	4,960,334	97.99%	5,084,407	96.02%
White: Scottish	–	–	–	–	4,459,071	88.09%	4,445,678	83.95%
White: Other British	–	–	–	–	373,685	7.38%	417,109	7.88%
White: Irish	–	–	–	–	49,428	0.98%	54,090	1.02%
White: Gypsy/Traveller[note 1]	–	–	–	–	–	–	4,212	0.08%
White: Polish[note 1]	–	–	–	–	–	–	61,201	1.16%
White: Other	–	–	–	–	78,150	1.54%	102,117	1.93%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Total	–	–	42,852	0.86%	71,317	1.41%	140,678	2.66%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Indian	–	–	10,050	0.20%	15,037	0.30%	32,706	0.62%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Pakistani	–	–	21,192	0.42%	31,793	0.63%	49,381	0.93%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Bangladeshi	–	–	1,134	0.02%	1,981	0.04%	3,788	0.07%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Chinese	–	–	10,476	0.21%	16,310	0.32%	33,706	0.64%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Asian Other	–	–	4,604	0.09%	6,196	0.12%	21,097	0.40%
Black, Black Scottish or Black British[note 2]	–	–	3,707	0.07%	6,247	0.12%	–	–
African: Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	29,638	0.56%
African: African, African Scottish or African British	–	–	–	–	–	–	29,186	0.55%
African: Other African	–	–	–	–	–	–	452	0.01%
Caribbean or Black: Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	6,540	0.12%
Caribbean	–	–	–	–	–	–	3,430	0.06%
Black	–	–	–	–	–	–	2,380	0.04%
Caribbean or Black: Other	–	–	–	–	–	–	730	0.01%
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups: Total	–	–	–	–	12,764	0.25%	19,815	0.37%
Other: Total	–	–	8,825	0.18%	9,571	0.19%	14,325	0.27%
Other: Arab[note 1]	–	–	–	–	–	–	9,366	0.18%
Other: Any other ethnic group	–	–	–	–	9,571	0.19%	4,959	0.09%
Ethnic minority: Total	46,188	0.9%	55,384	1.1%	106,146	2%	210,996	4%
Total:	4,954,328	100%	4,998,567	100.00%	5,062,011	100.00%	5,295,403	100.00%

Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish only" according to the 2011 census.

Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish and British" and "British only" according to the 2011 census.

A question on national identity was asked in the 2011 census: "what do you feel is your national identity?".[21] Respondents could identify themselves as having more than one national identity.

In the 2011 census:[22]

• 62% identified themselves as 'Scottish only'
• 18% identified themselves as 'Scottish' and 'British'
• 8% identified themselves as 'British only'
• 2% identified themselves as 'Scottish' together with other non-British identity
• 10% identified themselves with other national/ethnic identities only (neither Scottish nor British)

The council areas with at least 90% of the population stating some 'Scottish' national identity were North Lanarkshire, Inverclyde, East Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. The lowest proportions of people stating some 'Scottish' national identity were in Edinburgh (70%) and Aberdeen (75%).[23]

The council areas with the highest proportions of people stating 'British' as their only national identity were Argyll and Bute and Shetland, each with 12%.[23]

Below is a table of national identity sorted by council area based on the results of the 2011 census:

Percentage claiming to be Roman Catholic in the 2011 census in Scotland

The statistics from the 2011 census and the 2001 census are set out below.

English is by far the most commonly spoken language in Scotland. Two regional languages of Scotland, Scottish Gaelic and Modern Scots, are protected under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. Abilities in these languages for those aged three and above were recorded in the UK census 2011 as follows.[26]

Over 170 languages are spoken in Scotland. The 4 most commonly spoken non-English languages at home (by people aged 3 and over) are: Scots (55,817), Polish (54,186), Chinese (27,381), and Urdu (23,394).[27]

Stone houses at Knap of Howar, evidence of a settled agricultural population and the beginnings of demographic growth, c. 3500 BC

At times during the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC) Europe had a climate warmer than today's, and early humans may have made their way to what is now Scotland, though archaeologists have found no traces of this. Glaciers then scoured their way across most of Britain, and only after the ice retreated did Scotland again become habitable, around 9600 BC.[28] Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments formed the first known settlements, and archaeologists have dated a site near Biggar to around 8500 BC.[29] Numerous other sites found around Scotland build up a picture of highly mobile boat-using people making tools from bone, stone and antlers, probably with a very low density of population.[30] Neolithic farming brought permanent settlements, such as the stone house at Knap of Howar on Papa Westray dating from 3500 BC, and greater concentrations of population. Extensive analyses of Black Loch in Fife indicate that arable land spread at the expense of forest from about 2000 BC until the period of the first century AD Roman advance into lowland Scotland, suggesting an expanding settled population. Thereafter, there was re-growth of birch, oak and hazel for a period of five centuries, suggesting that the Roman invasions had a negative impact on the native population.[31]

There are almost no written sources from which to re-construct the demography of early medieval Scotland. Estimates have been made of a population of 10,000 inhabitants in Dál Riata and 80–100,000 for Pictland, which was probably the largest region.[32] This does not include figures for parts of Northumbria now in Scotland. It is likely that the 5th and 6th centuries saw higher mortality rates due to the appearance of bubonic plague, which may have reduced net population.[33] The examination of burial sites for this period like that at Hallowhill, St Andrews indicate a life expectancy of only 26–29.[32] The known conditions have been taken to suggest it was a high fertility, high mortality society, similar to many developing countries in the modern world, with a relatively young demographic profile, and perhaps early childbearing, and large numbers of children for women. This would have meant that there were a relatively small proportion of available workers to the number of mouths to feed. This would have made it difficult to produce a surplus that would allow demographic growth and more complex societies to develop.[34] From the formation of the kingdom of Alba in the tenth century, to before the Black Death reached the country in 1349, estimates based on the amount of farmable land, suggest that population may have grown from half a million to a million.[35] Although there is no reliable documentation on the impact of the plague, there are many anecdotal references to abandoned land in the following decades. If the pattern followed that in England, then the population may have fallen to as low as half a million by the end of the 15th century.[36] Compared with the situation after the redistribution of population in the later clearances and the industrial revolution, these numbers would have been relatively evenly spread over the kingdom, with roughly half living north of the Tay.[37] Perhaps ten per cent of the population lived in one of many burghs that grew up in the later medieval period, mainly in the east and south. It has been suggested that they would have had a mean population of about 2,000, but many would be much smaller than 1,000 and the largest, Edinburgh, probably had a population of over 10,000 by the end of the era.[38]

Graph showing the population of Scotland 1900–2001. Source: General Register Office for Scotland Birth and Mortality statistics from 1900

Calculations based on Hearth Tax returns for 1691 indicate a population of 1,234,575, but this figure may have been seriously affected by the famines of the 1690s. The first reliable information is a census conducted by the Reverend Alexander Webster in 1755, which shows the inhabitants of Scotland as 1,265,380.[39] By the time of the first decadal census in 1801, the population was 1,608,420. Scotland grew steadily in the 19th century, to 2,889,000 in 1851 and 4,472,000 in 1901.[40] Even with the growth of industry there were insufficient good jobs, as a result, during the period 1841–1931, about 2 million Scots emigrated to North America and Australia, and another 750,000 Scots relocated to England.[41]

With a population of 4.8 million in 1911, Scotland sent 690,000 men to First World War, of whom 74,000 died in combat or from disease, and 150,000 were seriously wounded.[42][43] Thus, although Scots were only 10 percent of the British population, they made up 15 per cent of the national armed forces and eventually accounted for 20 per cent of the dead.[44] While emigration began to tail off in England and Wales after the First World War,[45] it continued apace in Scotland, with 400,000 Scots, ten per cent of the population, estimated to have left the country between 1921 and 1931.[46] When the Great Depression hit in the 1930s there were no easily available jobs in the US and Canada and emigration fell to less than 50,000 a year, bringing to an end the period of mass migrations that had opened in the mid-18th century.[47] This contributed to the growth of the population, which reached a peak of 5,240,800 in 1974. Thereafter it began to fall slowly, moving down to 5,062,940 in 2000. There was also a decrease in some urban populations as a result of policies of slum clearance, overspill and relocation to new towns, with the population of Glasgow falling from over a million in 1951 to 629,000 in 2001. Rural areas also saw a loss of population, particularly the Highlands and Hebrides.[48]

People on Buchanan Street in Glasgow. Scotland's population is getting older as many baby boomers approach retirement.

Scotland's population grew most years between the first census in 1855 up to around 5.2 million in 1974.[49] However, from 1974 to 2000 there was a natural decrease in population, with both an excess of deaths over births and of emigration over immigration - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom. Since 2000 the population has increased most years and is projected to peak in 2028 at 5.48 million and thereafter decline to 5.39 million in 2045.[50] [51]

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.04 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 0.94 male(s)/female (Mid-2011 est.)

Infant mortality rate: 4.1 deaths/1,000 live births (2011 est.)[60]

Life expectancy at birth (2011):[3]
total population: 78.4 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 72.2 in 1981)
male: 76.1 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 69.1 in 1981)
female: 80.6 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 75.3 in 1981)

General fertility rate:[3] The general Fertility Rate (GFR) is based on the rate of births per 1000 females of child-bearing age (i.e. 15–44 years of age).

In 2011 it was 56.4 births per 1000 women. For comparison, during the latter part of the 20th century it was at its highest during the 'baby boom' of the 1960s. The GFR reached a peak of 99.5 births per 1000 women in 1962. In 2001 the GFR had fallen to its lowest post World War II level of 50 births per 1000 women.

Languages: English, Scots (including Doric, Central and Border) and Gaelic

Marriages:[3] In 2011 there were 29,135 marriages in Scotland. This is a 2.3% increase on 2010.

By way of historical comparison, the highest ever recorded was 53,522 in 1940. In the 1970s there were on average between 40 and 45,000 marriages per annum. The lowest annual figure in recent years was 27,524 in 2009 and lowest on record was 19,655 in 1858.

Of specific interest were the number of so-called 'tourist marriages', where neither partner was resident in Scotland. In 2011 there were 6,829 such marriages, of which 48% took place at Gretna, the most popular of all wedding venues.

Civil partnerships:[3] The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force in December 2005. In 2006 the number of civil partnership registrations was 1,047. A one-off figure given the number of long-standing relationships which already existed which could be registered. Since then the number of ceremonies each year fell from 688 in 2007 to 465 registrations in 2010. 2011 saw the first increase since 2006 with 554 registrations.

Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 99%
male: 99%
female: 99% (2005 est)

Higher education: 95% of Scottish higher education students study in universities in Scotland.

• Demography of the United Kingdom
• Demography of England
• Demography of Wales
• Demography of Northern Ireland
• Demography of Glasgow
• Politics of Scotland
• Scottish people
• New Scots
• Fresh Talent Initiative
• Population
• United Kingdom Census 2001
• Italian-Scots
• Irish Scottish people
• List of census localities in Scotland

• National Records of Scotland
• Scotland's People - the official government source of genealogical data for Scotland
• Scottish Government
• Government Actuary's Department
• Scotland's Census Results Online (Scrol)