Sixth Party System

The Sixth Party System is characterized by an electoral shift from the electoral coalitions of the Fifth Party System during the New Deal. The Republican Party became the dominant party in the South, rural areas, and suburbs, and its voter base became shaped by White Evangelicals.[2] Meanwhile the Democratic Party became the dominant party in urban areas, and its voter base diversified to include trade unionists, urban machinists, progressive intellectuals, as well as racial, ethnic, and religious minorities. A critical factor was the major transformation of the political system in the Reagan Era of the 1980s and beyond.[3][4]

No clear disciplinary consensus has emerged pinpointing an electoral event responsible for shifting presidential and congressional control since the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the Fifth Party System emerged. Much of the work published on the subject has come from political scientists explaining the events of their time either as the imminent breakup of the Fifth Party System, and the installation of a new one, or in terms of such transition taking place some time ago. In 2006, Arthur Paulson argued that a decisive realignment took place in the late 1960s. Other current writing on the Fifth Party System expresses admiration of its longevity, as the first four systems lasted about 30 to 40 years each, which would have implied that the early 21st century should see a Seventh Party System.[5] Previous party systems ended with the dominant party losing two consecutive House elections by large margins, and also losing a presidential election coinciding with or immediately following the second House election, which are decisive electoral evidence of political realignment, as it happened in the 1896 election. Such a shift took place between 2006 and 2008 in favor of the Democrats, but the Republicans won the elections of 2010 by their biggest landslide since 1946 and finished the 2014 elections with their greatest number of House seats since 1928.[6]

According to the 2017 edition of The Logic of American Politics, "a sixth party system is now in place." Although the precise starting date is a matter of debate, "the most salient difference between the current and New Deal party systems is the Republican Party's increased strength, exemplified by 20 majorities in the house and senate in six straight elections (1994–2004), unprecedented since the fourth party system, [its] retaking of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014 [...] and its sweeping national victory in 2016."[7]

Writing in 2020, political scientists Mark D. Brewer and L. Sandy Maisel argue "[i]t seems safe to state that the sixth American party system featured strong divisions between Republicans and Democrats, rooted in cleavages based on social class, social and cultural issues, race and ethnicity, and the proper size and scope of the federal government."[1] In Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process (2021), Brewer and Maisel argue that the consensus among experts is that the Sixth System is underway based on American electoral politics since the 1960s, stating: "Although most in the field now believe we are in a sixth party system, there is a fair amount of disagreement about how exactly we arrived at this new system and about its particular contours. Scholars do, however, agree that there has been significant change in American electoral politics since the 1960s."[1]

United States presidential election results between 1980 and 2004 (One possible span for the Sixth Party System).

Opinions on when the Sixth Party System began include the elections of 1966 to 1968, the election of 1972, the 1980s when both parties began to become more unified and partisan, and the 1990s due to cultural divisions.[8][9][10][11]

Political scientist Stephen C. Craig argues for the 1972 election, when Richard Nixon won a 49-state landslide. He notes that "[t]here seems to be consensus on the appropriate name for the sixth party system. [...] Changes that occurred during the 1960s were so great and so pervasive that they cry out to be called a critical-election period. The new system of candidate-centered parties is so distinct and so portentous that one can no longer deny its existence or its character."[11]

The Princeton Encyclopedia of American Political History dates the start in 1980, with the election of Reagan and a Republican Senate.[12] Arthur Paulson argues that "[w]hether electoral change since the 1960s is called 'realignment' or not, the 'sixth party system' emerged between 1964 and 1972."[13]

Seventh Party System

United States presidential election results between 2008 and 2020 (One possible span for a current Seventh Party System or transitional period). Democrats won the popular vote in all of these elections.

Since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the Republican Party's more moderate, neoconservative faction has been increasingly ostracized by a growing far-right, paleoconservative faction, most commonly known as Trumpists. Peter J. Katzenstein, Professor of International Studies at Cornell University, believes that Trumpism rests on three pillars, namely nationalism, religion, and race.[14] According to Jeff Goodwin, Trumpism is characterized by five key elements: social conservatism, capitalism, economic nationalism, nativism, and White nationalism.[15]

The conflict between Trumpists and members of the Never Trump movement can perhaps most prominently be exemplified by the significant difficulty experienced by Kevin McCarthy in being elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2023, as many members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus refused to vote for him. This was highly unusual, as the Speaker of the House is typically elected on the first ballot, rather than on the fifteenth as McCarthy was.[16][17] McCarthy's tensions with the Freedom Caucus continued throughout his tenure, culminating in the caucus voting to oust him from his position in October; McCarthy is the first Speaker of the House to be removed by the House of Representatives.[18][19][20]

Moderate Republicans such as Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger also faced serious opposition, including censure, from many fellow Republicans due to their condemnation of Donald Trump following the January 6 United States Capitol attack, and participation in the bipartisan House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack.[21] This backlash would soon cause Liz Cheney to lose her seat representing Wyoming's at-large congressional district to Trump-endorsed Republican primary candidate Harriet Hageman,[22] after having been ousted as Chair of the House Republican Conference the previous year to be succeeded by Trump-endorsed Representative Elise Stefanik.[23]

Mark D. Brewer and L. Sandy Maisel speculate that "in the wake of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory, there is now strengthening debate as to whether we are entering a new party system as Trump fundamentally reshapes the Republican party and the Democratic party responds and evolves as well."[24] Some also argue that the supposed Seventh Party System began in 2008, as the election of the first Black President inflamed the American far-right to an unprecedented degree, with this arguably becoming a significant contributing factor to Donald Trump's victory in 2016.[25]

Some scholars and pundits have also posited that the Sixth Party System has ended while the Seventh Party System has not yet begun, and that the current system is merely a unique transition phase between the two. Another noteworthy feature of the Sixth/Seventh Party System is that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, with their only victory being with the re-election of George W. Bush in 2004.[26]

United States presidential election results between 1964 and 1976 (One possible span for a dealignment).

One possible explanation for the lack of an agreed-upon beginning of the Sixth Party System is that there was a brief period of dealignment immediately preceding it. Dealignment is a trend or process whereby a large portion of the electorate abandons its previous partisan affiliation without developing a new one to replace it. Ronald Inglehart and Avram Hochstein identify the time period of the American dealignment as 1958 to 1968.[27] Although the dealignment interpretation remains the consensus view among scholars, a few political scientists argue that partisanship remained so powerful that dealignment was much exaggerated.[28]

Harris and Tichenor argue: "At the level of issues, the sixth party system was characterized by clashes over what rights to extend to various groups in society. The initial manifestations of these clashes were race-based school desegregation and affirmative action, but women's issues, especially abortion rights, soon gained equal billing. [...] To these were added in the 1980s environmental defense and in the 1990s gay rights."[29]

New voter coalitions included the emergence of the "religious right", which is a combination of Catholics and Evangelical Protestants united on opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. Southern white voters started voting for Republican presidential candidates in the 1950s, and Republican state and local candidates in the 1990s.[30]

• History of the Democratic Party (United States)
• History of the Republican Party (United States)
• Party systems in the United States
• Political party strength in U.S. states
• Politics of the Southern United States
• Southern Strategy