2018 Tasmanian state election

The 2018 Tasmanian state election was held on 3 March 2018 to elect all 25 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

2018 Tasmanian state election
3 March 2018
All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Will Hodgman Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 17 March 2017 12 June 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Denison
Last election 15 seats; 51.22% 7 seats; 27.33% 3 seats; 13.83%
Seats won 13 seats 10 seats 2 seats
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 3 Decrease 1
Popular vote 168,303 109,264 34,491
Percentage 50.26% 32.63% 10.30%
Swing Decrease 0.96 Increase 5.30 Decrease 3.53
TPP estimate[lower-alpha 1] 55.50% 44.50%
TPP swing Decrease 2.00 Increase 2.00
Election results and largest party by first preference by division
Premier before election

Will Hodgman
Liberal

 Elected Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal

The four-year incumbent Liberal government, led by Premier Will Hodgman, won a second consecutive term. It defeated the Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Rebecca White, and the Greens, led by Cassy O'Connor. The Jacqui Lambie Network also competed in a state election for the first time, though the party did not win any seats and its leader Jacqui Lambie did not stand for election.

The Tasmanian House of Assembly (the lower house) has five divisions with five members each for a total of 25 seats, 13 of which are required for a majority. The divisions correspond in name and boundaries to the five federal electorates for the House of Representatives. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission using the Hare-Clark electoral system; five candidate are declared elected once each of them reach 16.7% (one-sixth) of the total formal vote during counting.

House of Assembly elections are not tied to the election dates for the Legislative Council (the upper house), which occur in May each year for two or three of the 15 divisions, completing a fixed periodic cycle over six years.

Ultimately, the Liberals suffered a two-seat swing, but were able to hold on to a one-seat majority of 13 seats. It was the first time in 22 years that a Liberal government won a second consecutive term in Tasmania, and the first time since 1986 and only the second time since 1931 that an incumbent conservative government was reelected with an overall majority. It was also the first time a state parliamentary assembly in Australia elected a majority of female members, with thirteen women and twelve men.[2]

Results
See also: Results of the 2018 Tasmanian state election and Members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly, 2018–2021

Tasmanian state election, 3 March 2018[3]
House of Assembly
<< 2014–2021 >>

Enrolled voters 381,183
Votes cast 352,180 Turnout 92.39 −2.15
Informal votes 17,309 Informal 4.86 +0.11
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes  % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 168,303 50.26 −0.96 13 −2
  Labor 109,264 32.63 +5.30 10 +3
  Greens 34,491 10.30 −3.53 2 −1
  Lambie 10,579 3.16 +3.16 0 0
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 7,640 2.28 +2.28 0 0
  Tasmanians 4 Tasmania 985 0.29 +0.29 0 0
  Independent 3,609 1.08 −0.20 0 0
Total 334,871     25  

Primary vote percentages by division
Bass Braddon Denison Franklin Lyons
Labor Party26.40%27.29%41.85%34.37%32.95%
Liberal Party58.81%56.08%37.70%48.40%50.55%
Tasmanian Greens9.28%3.57%17.53%14.36%6.53%
Other5.51%13.05%2.91%2.89%9.97%

Current distribution of seats

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, terms in the Tasmanian House of Assembly end a maximum of four years from the return of the writs following the previous election, in this case 29 March 2014. The election date is not fixed and can be called at any time with the agreement of the Governor of Tasmania, representing the Crown. The Electoral Act 2004 governs the process of requesting elections.[4][5] The Governor may then issue writs between five and ten days after the Premier of Tasmania requests an election.[6] Candidate nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the Governor's writ,[7] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after candidate nominations close.[8] Accordingly, if the lower house had run to its maximum term in 2018, then the Saturday election date would have been between 28 April and 19 May inclusive.[4] However, on 28 January 2018, Premier Will Hodgman visited the Governor to request issue of writs for an election on 3 March 2018.[9]

Background
Main article: 2014 Tasmanian state election

The results of the previous election saw a substantial swing to the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the then Labor government led by Lara Giddings, which had governed in majority together with the Greens until shortly before the election. The 2014 election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens reduced to three seats in the Assembly.

Following the loss, Giddings resigned as leader of the Labor Party and was replaced by then opposition Deputy Premier Bryan Green. He subsequently resigned from opposition leadership on 17 March 2017, and Rebecca White was elected Labor leader unopposed.[10] Aside from the Liberals, Labor and Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network, formed in 2015, fielded several candidates in 2018 and was considered a chance to pick up seats,[11] although they failed to do so.[12] The two other minor parties contesting the 2018 election were the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and the newly formed T4T – Tasmanians 4 Tasmania.[13]

Campaign

With polls showing that the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network were polling well, there was speculation that the Liberals could lose their majority. Nonetheless, Hodgman was adamant that he would only govern if the Liberals retained their majority, saying, "We will govern alone or not at all."[14]

The Labor party ran on a policy that claimed it would make Tasmania the first state in the country to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs.[15] During the 2018 campaign Federal Group, the largest operator of gaming venues in Tasmania, admitted to supporting its employees campaigning on a pro-pokie platform.[16] Opposition Labor Leader Rebecca White claimed the Liberal Party outspent the Labor election campaign by a factor of 5 to 1.[17]

Whilst the disclosure of political donations in Tasmania is required annually, and donations below $13,000 don't have to be reported, there were widespread calls for greater transparency in campaign spending in the lead up to the 2018 election. Federal Group had no applicable disclosed donations to the Tasmanian Liberal Party in the applicable yearly period prior to the election (2016–2017).[18] However more recent donations prior to the election date are not required to be disclosed by the Australian Electoral Commission until FYE 2017–18. These disclosures showed that the gambling industry donated over $400,000 to the Liberal Party.[19]

On the day before the election, 2 March 2018, it was revealed that the Liberal Party had tried to push through a plan to soften the state's gun laws, to benefit farm workers and sporting shooters.[20]

Retiring MPs

Liberal

Labor

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[24] Polling is also conducted irregularly by MediaReach, ReachTEL and Roy Morgan Research, the latter with sample sizes of typically a few hundred voters.[25] The sample size for ReachTEL's 24 February 2018 poll was 3,179.[26]

Graphical summary
Graphical summary of primary voting opinion polls.
Graphical summary of Better Premier polling.
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN ONP IND/OTH
27 February 2018 EMRS[27] 46% 34% 12% 4% - 3%
24 February 2018 ReachTEL[26] 48.0% 32.2% 12.5% 5.4% – 2.1%
January 2018 MediaReach[note 1]

[28][29]

 41.1% 34.3% 12.8% 6.2% - 5.6%
December 2017 EMRS[30] 34% 34% 17% 8% – 6%
August 2017 EMRS[31] 37% 34% 16% 5% - 7%
May 2017 EMRS[32] 39% 34% 15% – 3% 9%
March 2017 EMRS[33] 35% 29% 19% - 6% 11%
November 2016 ReachTEL[34] 45.5% 30.9% 15.1% – – 8.5%
November 2016 EMRS[33] 40% 28% 18% - - 11%
October 2016 Morgan 39% 33% 16% – – 12%
August 2016 EMRS 41% 31% 15% - - 13%
August 2016 Morgan 37.5% 36% 15.5% – – 11%
July 2016 EMRS 37% 32% 17% - - 14%
May 2016 EMRS 41% 29% 21% – – 9%
May 2016 Morgan 41% 34.5% 17% - - 7.5%
March 2016 Morgan 40% 33% 21.5% – – 5.5%
February 2016 EMRS[33] 46% 27% 18% - - 9%
November 2015 EMRS 48% 25% 20% – – 7%
August 2015 EMRS 40% 29% 21% - - 9%
May 2015 EMRS 46% 29% 19% – – 6%
February 2015 EMRS 42% 34% 15% 1%1 - 8%
November 2014 EMRS 42% 31% 19% 2%1 – 6%
August 2014 EMRS 46% 33% 16% 2%1 - 4%
May 2014 EMRS 48% 25% 21% 3%1 – 3%
2014 election 51.2% 27.3% 13.8% 5.0%1 - 1.3%
Feb 2014 EMRS 44% 20% 15% 5%1 – 3%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
1 Palmer United Party (PUP)
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman		 Labor
White
January 2018 48.0% 41.4%
August 2017 37% 48%
May 2017[32] 42% 39%
March 2017 52% 20%1
November 2016[35] 59.8% 40.2%1
October 2016 55.5% 44.5%1
July 2016 48% 25%1
February 2016 52% 21%1
November 2015 56% 19%1
August 2015 49% 21%1
May 2015 52% 24%1
February 2015 48% 26%1
November 2014 50% 22%1
August 2014 51% 25%1
May 2014 54% 22%1
2014 election
Feb 2014 48% 21%2
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Bryan Green.
2 Lara Giddings.
  1. Tasmanian Liberal Party internal poll, sample size 3000

See also

References
  1. "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  2. "Tasmania first state to return female-majority parliament". ABC News. 16 March 2018. Retrieved 16 March 2018.
  3. "2018 House of Assembly Results". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 3 March 2018.
  4. "'So when is the next election?'". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  5. "2013/2014 Tasmanian Electoral Commission Annual Report" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 July 2015. Retrieved 28 June 2015.
  6. Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  7. Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  8. Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  9. "Tasmanian election: Premier confirms state will go to polls on March 3". ABC News. 29 January 2018.
  10. "Green out, White in for Tasmanian Labor, the ABC understands". ABC News. 17 March 2017. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  11. "Jacqui Lambie looming large over 2018 Tasmanian election, as Liberals, Labor neck and neck". ABC News. 7 December 2017.
  12. Willard, Jessica (3 March 2018). "Lambie concedes defeat, says 'trust and integrity' will prevail". The Advocate. Retrieved 4 March 2018.
  13. Tasmanian Electoral Commission. "Parties currently registered under the Electoral Act 2004". Retrieved 2 February 2018.
  14. Wahlquist, Calla (27 January 2018). "Tasmania election: Will Hodgman says Liberals will 'govern alone or not at all'". the Guardian. Retrieved 2 February 2018.
  15. Morton, Adam (2 March 2018). "Tasmania election: Liberals are odds-on favourites after Labor's pokies gamble". The Guardian.
  16. "Tasmanian poker machine licence holder Federal Group joins pro-pokies campaign". ABC News. 6 February 2018.
  17. "Tasmanian election: Big-budget Liberal Party and backers dominate ad campaign". ABC News. 28 February 2018.
  18. "Summary of Donations reported by Donors – By Party – 2016–17". Archived from the original on 20 September 2017. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  19. "Dirty money - the real story behind Liberal state election win". 31 January 2019.
  20. "Tasmanian Liberals deny 'watering down' gun laws with proposed changes". ABC News (Australia). 2 March 2018. Retrieved 3 March 2018.
  21. "Tasmanian Attorney-General Matthew Groom stepping down from politics". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 23 September 2017.
  22. Wisbey, Michelle (14 May 2017). "Lara Giddings to step away from politics". The Examiner. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  23. Hansen, Ben. "TONIGHT: @WINNews_Tas speaks with David Llewellyn after he announced he's stepping down from politics after 28 years. Details 6pm. #politas". WIN News. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  24. EMRS.com.au website.
  25. , Roy Morgan Research, "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW while Palaszczuk consolidates lead in Queensland and ALP preferred in Tasmania", 10 October 2016.
  26. "ReachTEL: Liberal 46, Labor 31, Greens 12 in Tasmania". The Poll Bludger. 24 February 2018. Retrieved 24 February 2018.
  27. "Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  28. "Liberals talk up chances with release of party-funded poll results". ABC News (Australia). 17 January 2018. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
  29. "New Commissioned Tasmanian Polls". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 18 January 2018.
  30. "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS December 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 January 2018. Retrieved 28 January 2018.
  31. "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS August 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 January 2018. Retrieved 28 January 2018.
  32. "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS May 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 September 2017. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  33. "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS March 2017" (PDF). 6 March 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 February 2018. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
  34. , William Bowe, "State polling miscellany", November 2015.
  35. , Matt Smith, "Green, White, Bacon, Giddings? Exclusive polling reveals who Tasmanians think should lead the Labor party, Townsville Bulletin (online), 18 November 2016

Notes
  1. Tasmania does not use preferential voting. This calculation is an estimate of preference flows at the previous federal election.[1]
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