2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist J. D. Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.[1]

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections and 2022 Ohio elections.
Not to be confused with the 2022 Ohio Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
November 8, 2022
Turnout51.5% Decrease 16.9pp
 
Nominee J. D. Vance Tim Ryan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,192,114 1,939,489
Percentage 53.0% 46.9%
Vance:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90-100%
Ryan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90-100%
Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

 Elected U.S. senator

J. D. Vance
Republican

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Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans.[2][3] Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020. However, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district.

Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win.[4]

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[5] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator interfered after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows.[6] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator J. D. Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[7][8]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[9] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[10] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[11]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn
  • John Berman, electronic hardware design, test engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020[20]
  • Bernie Moreno, businessman[21][22][23]

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Dolan
U.S. Governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
J. D. Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed J. D. Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Matt
Dolan		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Jane
Timken		 J. D.
Vance		 Other
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics April 28 – May 1, 2022 May 2, 2022 21.5% 15.0% 22.5% 7.0% 26.0% 8.0% Vance +3.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Dolan		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Bernie
Moreno		 Jane
Timken		 Mike
Turner		 J. D.
Vance		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 29 – May 1, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 13% 21% – 6% – 26% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 9%
Emerson College April 28–29, 2022 885 (LV) ± 3.2% 18% 14% 22% – 7% – 24% 4%[lower-alpha 4] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 25–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 12% 12% 19% – 8% – 31% 0% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D) April 21–24, 2022 634 (LV) ± 3.9% 18% 13% 12% – 7% – 17% – 33%
Fox News April 20–24, 2022 906 (LV) ± 3.0% 11% 13% 18% – 6% – 23% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 25%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 18–19, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 13% 18% – 11% – 25% <1% 23%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 13–14, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 12% 14% 28% – 8% – 23% 3%[lower-alpha 6] 13%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] April 11–12, 2022 884 (LV) ± 3.3% 15% 17% 23% – 12% – 10% 3% 20%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 3–4, 2022 2,500 (LV) ± 2.0% 13% 20% 16% – 15% – 10% – 26%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] March 30–31, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 18% 18% – 9% – 18% – 29%
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 5% 21% 22% – 6% – 10% 4% 34%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 7% 22% 20% – 9% – 11% 3%[lower-alpha 7] 24%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 22% 15% – 6% – 8% 4%[lower-alpha 8] 39%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] February 23–24, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 8% 18% 14% – 12% – 14% – 34%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] February 8–10, 2022 609 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 23% 11% – 8% – 9% – 44%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 8–10, 2022 1,085 (LV) ± 3.0% 10% 16% 21% – 10% – 14% 3% 25%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 613 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 20% 18% – 6% – 5% 10%[lower-alpha 9] 34%
February 3, 2022 Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] January 30 – February 1, 2022 514 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 17% 28% 6% 9% – 13% – 22%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] January 28–30, 2022 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 3% 16% 13% 6% 8% – 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] January 18–20, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 14% 15% 11% 13% – 9% 1% 34%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 5] January 11–13, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 10% 20% 10% 18% – 10% – 24%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 6] January 5–6, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% 14% 26% 7% 15% – 10% 8% 16%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 3, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 14% 18% 9% 16% – 8% – 31%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 12–15, 2021 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 5% 12% 21% 2% 10% – 15% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] November 29, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 13% 21% 3% 17% – 10% – 32%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] November 21–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 18% 2% 10% 6% 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 17–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 6% 19% 1% 4% 7% 16% – 43%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] September 2021 – (LV) – 6% 12% 22% 3% 11% – 9% – 37%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 20–23, 2021 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 3% 8% 37% 1% 6% – 13% 6% 26%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 6–7, 2021 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 34% 2% 11% – 16% – 30%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 17–19, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 4% 19% 1% 5% 5% 13% – 51%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 6] July 27–29, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 3% 40% 1% 8% – 12% 13% 20%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] July 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 2% 21% 2% 7% 7% 12% – 48%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 15–17, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 2% 22% 1% 8% 6% 4% – 55%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 35% 2% 16% – 6% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] May 26, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 24% 1% 19% 8% 4% – 35%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 1% 23% 1% 14% 7% 4% – 37%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 2% 25% 2% 8% 7% 6% – 51%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 28% – 11% 7% 2% – 37%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] February 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 20% – 5% 8% – – 50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Bernie
Moreno		 Steve
Stivers		 Jane
Timken		 Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% – 45% – – 22% 33%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 7] February 1–3, 2021 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 38% 2% 11% 6% 39%

Results
Results by county:
  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Republican primary results[23][99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican J. D. Vance 344,736 32.22%
Republican Josh Mandel 255,854 23.92%
Republican Matt Dolan 249,239 23.30%
Republican Mike Gibbons 124,653 11.65%
Republican Jane Timken 62,779 5.87%
Republican Mark Pukita 22,692 2.12%
Republican Neil Patel 9,873 0.92%
Total votes 1,069,826 100.0%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified
  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[103][23]
  • Rick Taylor[104][23]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[23][14]

Declined

Endorsements
Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Morgan
Harper		 Traci
Johnson		 Tim
Ryan		 Other Undecided
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 18% – 43% 4% 37%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 313 (LV) ± 5.5% 4% 9% 31% 5%[lower-alpha 10] 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Amy
Acton		 Tim
Ryan		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 15–16, 2021 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 32% 31%

Results
Results by county:
  Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[23][99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tim Ryan 359,941 69.55%
Democratic Morgan Harper 92,347 17.84%
Democratic Traci Johnson 65,209 12.60%
Total votes 517,497 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared
  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (write-in)[144]
  • John Cheng (write-in)[145]
  • Matthew R. Esh (write-in)[145]
  • Shane Hoffman (write-in)[145]
  • Lashondra Tinsley (write-in)[145]

Disqualified

General election

Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be “lean Republican”. In the end, J. D. Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[149] Lean R October 4, 2022
Inside Elections[150] Lean R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151] Lean R August 31, 2022
Politico[152] Lean R September 5, 2022
RCP[153] Lean R September 20, 2022
Fox News[154] Lean R September 20, 2022
DDHQ[155] Likely R November 5, 2022
538[156] Likely R October 7, 2022
The Economist[157] Likely R November 5, 2022

Debates
2022 United States Senate general election in Ohio debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
J. D. Vance Tim Ryan
1 Oct. 10, 2022 Fox 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey		 Youtube P P
2 Oct. 17, 2022 21 WFMJ Lindsay McCoy
Bertram de Souza
Derek Steyer		 Youtube P P

Endorsements
J. D. Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 J. D.
Vance (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Undecided
[lower-alpha 11]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics October 30 – November 5, 2022 November 7, 2022 51.8% 43.8% 4.4% Vance +8.0
FiveThirtyEight October 17 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 50.9% 44.7% 4.4% Vance +6.2
270towin November 4 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 52.0% 44.2% 3.8% Vance +7.8
Average 51.6% 44.2% 4.2% Vance +7.4
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 J. D.
Vance (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs November 4–7, 2022 716 (LV) ± 4.1% 51% 46% 2%[lower-alpha 12] 2%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 44% – 4%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 505 (LV) ± 4.3% 52% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 13] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 2022 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 54% 44% – 3%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–5, 2022 1,413 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 45% – –
Cygnal (R) November 1–3, 2022 1,498 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 43% – 8%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,125 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 14] 4%
53% 44% 3%[lower-alpha 15] –
Cygnal (R) October 29 – November 1, 2022 1,520 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 44% – 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–30, 2022 1,510 (LV) ± 2.5% 48% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R) October 24–28, 2022 1,776 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 43% – 9%
Cygnal (R) October 22–26, 2022 1,817 (LV) ± 2.3% 49% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R) October 20–24, 2022 1,886 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 44% – 8%
Baldwin Wallace University October 20–23, 2022 1,068 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50% – 4%
Cygnal (R) October 18–22, 2022 1,547 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 43% – 10%
Marist College October 17–20, 2022 1,141 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 1%[lower-alpha 16] 8%
942 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% 1%[lower-alpha 17] 5%
Cygnal (R) October 16–20, 2022 1,540 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% – 9%
Siena College October 14–19, 2022 644 (LV) ± 5.1% 46% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 18] 6%
Cygnal (R) October 14–18, 2022 1,438 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 43% – 10%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid October 11–15, 2022 668 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% 1%[lower-alpha 19] 15%
Suffolk University October 11–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 1%[lower-alpha 20] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 10–12, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 44% – 9%
Data for Progress (D) October 7–12, 2022 1,016 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% – 5%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 9] October 6–8, 2022 640 (LV) – 46% 44% – 9%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% 1%[lower-alpha 21] 9%
Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 10] October 2–3, 2022 950 (RV) ± 3.5% 35% 43% – 22%
528 (LV) 38% 49% – 14%
Siena College September 18–22, 2022 642 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 46% 2%[lower-alpha 22] 9%
Baldwin Wallace University September 12–15, 2022 855 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 48% – 7%
Marist College September 12–15, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% – 9%
1,009 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 47% – 5%
Emerson College September 10–13, 2022 1000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 40% 3% 13%
Civiqs September 10–13, 2022 780 (LV) ± 4% 48% 45% 3% 4%
Fallon Research September 6–11, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 1% 10%
Suffolk University September 5–7, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% 1% 6%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 831 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 45% – 15%
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 11] August 17–23, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 16–19, 2022 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 6%
Emerson College August 15–16, 2022 925 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 42% 4% 10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 10] August 1–3, 2022 1,180 (A) ± 2.9% 32% 42% – 26%
974 (RV) ± 3.1% 33% 44% – 23%
516 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 49% – 12%
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 11] July 21–28, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 48% – 7%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[upper-alpha 12] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 38% 44% 3% 15%
Grow Progress (D)[upper-alpha 13] July 5–10, 2022 2,032 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% – 13%
Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 10] July 1–3, 2022 1,199 (A) ± 2.8% 36% 41% – 23%
989 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 44% – 20%
528 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% – 11%
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 11] June 27–30, 2022 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 48% – 6%
Grow Progress (D)[upper-alpha 13] May 30 – June 3, 2022 2,018 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% – 15%
Suffolk University May 22–24, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 39% 2% 17%
Momentive (D)[upper-alpha 10] May 13, 2022 1,174 (A) ± 2.9% 37% 37% – 25%
989 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 39% – 21%
528 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 43% – 9%
Grow Progress (D)[upper-alpha 13] April 25–29, 2022 2,014 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 43% – 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 3% 24%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 37% 3% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 39% 37% – 24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Mandel (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 42% 17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Mandel (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 36% 4% 18%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 37% 4% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 42% 38% – 20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jane
Timken (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 40% 40% 20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jane
Timken (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 4% 23%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 38% 4% 22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 38% – 21%
J. D. Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 J.D.
Vance (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 38% 40% 22%

Results
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio[99]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican J. D. Vance 2,192,114 53.04% -4.99%
Democratic Tim Ryan 1,939,489 46.92% +9.76%
Write-in 1,739 0.04% N/A
Total votes 4,133,342 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

County Results
County J.D. Vance
Republican		 Tim Ryan
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 6,749 77.34% 1,976 22.64% 1 0.01% 4,773 54.70% 8,726
Allen 23,229 71.02% 9,428 28.83% 49 0.15% 13,801 42.19% 32,706
Ashland 13,366 72.61% 5,034 27.35% 9 0.05% 8,332 45.26% 18,409
Ashtabula 18,277 59.14% 12,561 40.64% 69 0.22% 5,716 18.50% 30,907
Athens 7,482 39.18% 11,578 60.62% 38 0.20% -4,096 -21.44% 19,098
Auglaize 15,022 80.37% 3,641 19.48% 28 0.15% 11,381 60.89% 18,691
Belmont 15,169 67.25% 7,356 32.61% 31 0.14% 7,813 34.64% 22,556
Brown 10,832 76.62% 3,300 23.34% 5 0.04% 7,532 53.28% 14,137
Butler 79,240 61.88% 48,777 38.09% 35 0.03% 30,463 23.79% 128,052
Carroll 7,372 72.70% 2,743 27.05% 25 0.25% 4,629 45.65% 10,140
Champaign 10,253 71.03% 4,095 28.37% 87 0.60% 6,158 42.66% 14,435
Clark 27,131 61.10% 17,141 38.60% 130 0.30% 9,990 22.50% 44,402
Clermont 52,888 65.97% 27,084 33.78% 194 0.24% 25,804 32.19% 80,166
Clinton 10,515 74.59% 3,562 25.27% 21 0.15% 6,953 49.32% 14,098
Columbiana 24,829 69.77% 10,705 30.08% 51 0.14% 14,124 39.69% 35,585
Coshocton 8,021 70.97% 3,255 28.80% 26 0.23% 4,766 42.17% 11,302
Crawford 10,855 73.18% 3,948 26.61% 31 0.21% 6,907 46.57% 14,834
Cuyahoga 131,427 32.12% 277,039 67.70% 750 0.18% -145,612 -35.58% 409,216
Darke 15,977 80.76% 3,773 19.07% 33 0.17% 12,204 61.69% 19,783
Defiance 8,821 66.03% 4,513 33.78% 25 0.19% 4,308 32.25% 13,359
Delaware 52,540 53.13% 46,319 46.84% 27 0.03% 6,221 6.29% 98,886
Erie 15,287 52.93% 13,541 46.89% 51 0.18% 1,746 6.04% 28,879
Fairfield 35,926 60.63% 23,305 39.33% 27 0.05% 12,621 21.30% 59,258
Fayette 6,287 74.76% 2,102 24.99% 21 0.25% 4,185 49.77% 8,410
Franklin 143,263 33.64% 281,505 66.10% 1,134 0.27% -138,242 -32.46% 425,902
Fulton 10,906 67.18% 5,299 32.64% 28 0.17% 5,607 34.54% 16,233
Gallia 6,993 76.68% 2,116 23.20% 11 0.12% 4,877 53.48% 9,120
Geauga 25,332 59.24% 17,348 40.57% 81 0.19% 7,984 18.67% 42,761
Greene 39,385 59.51% 26,751 40.42% 43 0.06% 12,634 19.09% 66,179
Guernsey 8,678 71.18% 3,505 28.75% 9 0.07% 5,173 42.43% 12,192
Hamilton 127,792 42.25% 174,511 57.69% 183 0.06% -46,719 -15.44% 302,486
Hancock 18,357 67.77% 8,717 32.18% 14 0.05% 9,640 35.59% 27,088
Hardin 6,521 72.48% 2,471 27.46% 5 0.06% 4,050 45.02% 8,997
Harrison 3,721 71.78% 1,451 27.99% 12 0.23% 2,270 43.79% 5,184
Henry 7,102 68.94% 3,190 30.96% 10 0.10% 3,912 37.98% 10,302
Highland 10,185 77.68% 2,925 22.31% 2 0.02% 7,260 55.37% 13,112
Hocking 6,353 66.80% 3,139 33.00% 19 0.20% 3,214 33.80% 9,511
Holmes 7,056 81.82% 1,564 18.14% 4 0.05% 5,492 63.68% 8,624
Huron 12,398 67.24% 5,998 32.53% 42 0.23% 6,400 34.71% 18,438
Jackson 6,599 74.17% 2,285 25.68% 13 0.15% 4,314 48.49% 8,897
Jefferson 14,970 65.32% 7,914 34.53% 34 0.15% 7,056 30.79% 22,918
Knox 16,104 69.70% 6,969 30.16% 31 0.13% 9,135 39.54% 23,104
Lake 50,890 54.02% 43,166 45.82% 158 0.17% 7,724 8.20% 94,214
Lawrence 12,697 72.51% 4,793 27.37% 21 0.12% 7,904 45.14% 17,511
Licking 41,566 62.51% 24,774 37.26% 154 0.23% 16,792 25.25% 66,494
Logan 12,551 76.15% 3,898 23.65% 32 0.19% 8,653 52.50% 16,481
Lorain 54,488 48.70% 57,191 51.11% 209 0.19% -2,703 -2.41% 111,888
Lucas 53,009 40.09% 78,727 59.54% 480 0.36% -25,718 -19.45% 132,216
Madison 9,763 69.01% 4,350 30.75% 35 0.25% 5,413 38.26% 14,148
Mahoning 44,397 51.64% 41,421 48.18% 151 0.18% 2,976 3.46% 85,969
Marion 12,760 66.65% 6,342 33.12% 44 0.23% 6,418 33.53% 19,146
Medina 45,960 58.86% 31,979 40.95% 145 0.19% 13,981 17.91% 78,084
Meigs 5,589 74.84% 1,875 25.11% 4 0.05% 3,714 49.73% 7,468
Mercer 14,390 80.84% 3,389 19.04% 21 0.12% 11,001 61.80% 17,800
Miami 30,114 71.35% 11,993 28.42% 99 0.23% 18,121 42.93% 42,206
Monroe 3,479 71.48% 1,378 28.31% 10 0.21% 2,101 43.17% 4,867
Montgomery 91,382 49.04% 94,512 50.72% 460 0.25% -3,130 -1.68% 186,354
Morgan 3,494 72.52% 1,317 27.33% 7 0.15% 2,177 45.19% 4,818
Morrow 9,985 75.04% 3,303 24.82% 18 0.14% 6,682 50.22% 13,306
Muskingum 18,664 68.28% 8,638 31.60% 34 0.12% 10,026 36.68% 27,336
Noble 3,519 76.30% 1,083 23.48% 10 0.22% 2,436 52.82% 4,612
Ottawa 10,653 57.80% 7,750 42.05% 27 0.15% 2,903 15.75% 18,430
Paulding 4,873 75.31% 1,587 24.52% 11 0.17% 3,286 50.79% 6,471
Perry 8,557 71.70% 3,342 28.00% 36 0.30% 5,215 43.70% 11,935
Pickaway 13,859 70.72% 5,696 29.07% 41 0.21% 8,163 41.65% 19,596
Pike 5,488 70.21% 2,327 29.77% 2 0.03% 3,161 40.44% 7,817
Portage 32,274 53.29% 28,175 46.52% 114 0.19% 4,099 6.77% 60,563
Preble 12,156 77.22% 3,533 22.44% 54 0.34% 8,623 54.78% 15,743
Putnam 12,332 82.09% 2,667 17.75% 24 0.16% 9,665 64.34% 15,023
Richland 28,812 69.04% 12,904 30.92% 16 0.04% 15,908 38.12% 41,732
Ross 14,728 65.06% 7,858 34.71% 52 0.23% 6,870 30.35% 22,638
Sandusky 13,076 61.27% 8,177 38.31% 90 0.42% 4,899 22.96% 21,343
Scioto 14,656 69.56% 6,411 30.43% 4 0.02% 8,245 39.13% 21,071
Seneca 11,618 64.58% 6,322 35.14% 51 0.28% 5,296 29.44% 17,991
Shelby 14,512 80.32% 3,509 19.42% 47 0.26% 11,003 60.90% 18,068
Stark 77,287 57.87% 56,215 42.09% 44 0.03% 21,072 15.78% 133,546
Summit 86,724 43.31% 113,112 56.49% 415 0.21% -26,388 -13.18% 200,251
Trumbull 39,082 53.46% 33,890 46.36% 132 0.18% 5,192 7.10% 73,104
Tuscarawas 20,072 66.01% 10,267 33.77% 67 0.22% 9,805 32.24% 30,406
Union 16,320 64.16% 9,075 35.67% 43 0.17% 7,245 28.49% 25,438
Van Wert 7,959 78.49% 2,176 21.46% 5 0.05% 5,783 57.03% 10,140
Vinton 2,986 74.28% 1,028 25.57% 6 0.15% 1,958 48.71% 4,020
Warren 65,370 64.38% 35,970 35.43% 196 0.19% 29,400 28.95% 101,536
Washington 15,812 69.50% 6,938 30.50% 1 0.00% 8,874 39.00% 22,751
Wayne 25,599 66.58% 12,832 33.37% 19 0.05% 12,767 33.21% 38,450
Williams 8,935 69.57% 3,903 30.39% 5 0.04% 5,032 39.18% 12,843
Wood 24,854 51.62% 23,269 48.33% 25 0.05% 1,585 3.29% 48,148
Wyandot 5,811 71.93% 2,255 27.91% 13 0.16% 3,556 44.02% 8,079
Totals2,192,31252.97%1,939,75146.86%7,0710.17%252,5616.11%4,139,134
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Vance won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[200]

District Vance Ryan Representative
1st 46% 54% Steve Chabot (117th Congress)
Greg Landsman (118th Congress)
2nd 70% 30% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28% 72% Joyce Beatty
4th 66% 34% Jim Jordan
5th 62% 38% Bob Latta
6th 58% 42% Bill Johnson
7th 52% 48% Bob Gibbs / Anthony Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Max Miller (118th Congress)
8th 62% 38% Warren Davidson
9th 49.8% 50.2% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51% 49% Mike Turner
11th 21% 79% Shontel Brown
12th 64% 36% Troy Balderson
13th 47% 53% Tim Ryan (117th Congress)
Emilia Sykes (118th Congress)
14th 55% 45% David Joyce
15th 52% 48% Mike Carey

Voter demographics

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election (53% to 47%), winning majority of white voters (59% to 40%), while Ryan received majorities of Black vote (86% to 13%) and, to smaller extent, Latino vote (59% to 41%).[201]

National Election Pool
Demographic subgroup Ryan Vance No
Answer		  % of
Voters
Gender
Men 41 58 1 52
Women 53 47 N/A 48
Age
18–24 years old 59 41 N/A 4
25–29 years old 59 40 1 6
30–39 years old 54 45 1 12
40–49 years old 47 53 1 16
50–64 years old 42 58 N/A 31
65 and older 44 55 1 31
Race
White 40 59 1 83
Black 86 13 1 12
Latino 59 41 N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 35 64 1 44
White women 46 53 1 39
Black men 83 15 2 6
Black women 88 11 N/A 6
Education
High school or less 36 64 N/A 17
Some college education 46 53 1 25
Associate degree 44 55 1 15
Bachelor's degree 49 51 N/A 25
Advanced degree 57 43 N/A 17
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 30
Republicans 8 92 N/A 41
Independents 50 49 1 29
Ideology
Liberals 95 4 1 20
Moderates 56 43 1 42
Conservatives 11 89 N/A 38
Marital status
Married 47 53 N/A 64
Unmarried 54 45 1 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 62 N/A 31
Married women 55 45 N/A 33
Unmarried men 45 53 2 18
Unmarried women 63 37 N/A 17
Union household
Yes 56 43 1 21
No 44 55 1 79
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 48 52 N/A 9
No 47 53 N/A 91
Most important issue facing the country
Crime 41 59 N/A 8
Inflation 25 75 N/A 35
Gun policy 54 43 3 16
Immigration 12 88 N/A 9
Abortion 81 19 N/A 26
Area type
Urban 58 42 N/A 33
Suburban 41 58 1 51
Rural 42 57 1 16
Region
Cleveland Area 68 31 1 12
North 44 55 1 20
West 35 65 N/A 16
Columbus Area 60 40 N/A 19
Cincinnati/Dayton Area 41 58 1 20
Ohio Valley 35 65 N/A 13
Source: CBS News[202]

See also

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. Tinsley with 5%
  11. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. "All others" with 3%
  14. "Someone else" with 2%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  17. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  18. "Not going to vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. "Other" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
  21. "Someone else" with 1%
  22. "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
  10. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign
  12. This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  13. This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

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