2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
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  Kelly: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Masters: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]
Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7]
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[8][9]
Endorsements
Mark Kelly
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[10]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former Governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[10]
- U.S Attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former United States Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) [11]
- Local officials
- John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–) (Republican)[11]
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 589,400 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 589,400 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Nominee
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital[25]
Eliminated in primary
- Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General[26]
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman[27]
- Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard[28]
- Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission[29]
Declined
- Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[32]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district[33][34]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona[35]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor)[36]
- Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain[37]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[38]
- Kimberly Yee, State Treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)[39][40]
Endorsements
Mark Brnovich
- Individuals
- Mark Levin, lawyer and host of Life, Liberty & Levin[41][42][43]
- Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator[43]
- Newspapers
Jim Lamon
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Matthew Whitaker, Acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019)[45]
- Chad Wolf, Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021)[45]
- Jeff DeWit, Chief Financial Officer of NASA (2018–2020) and State Treasurer of Arizona (2015–2018)[45]
- Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[45]
- Mark A. Morgan, Acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2019–2021) and Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol (2016–2017)[45]
- Keith Schiller, Director of Oval Office Operations (2017)[45]
- Statewide officials
- Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona (2009–2015)[45]
- State legislators
- David Livingston, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019) from the 22nd district[45]
- Kelly Townsend, state senator (2021–present) and state representative (2013–2021) from the 16th district[45]
- Judy Burges, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present) and state senator from the 22nd district (2012–2019)[45]
- Frank Carroll, state representative from the 22nd district (2019–present)[45]
- Individuals
- Brandon Judd, President of the National Border Patrol Council[45]
- Organizations
- Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC)[46]
- Arizona Police Association (APA) [47]
- National Association of Police Organizations[45]
- National Border Patrol Council[45]
- Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs[45]
- Glendale Law Enforcement Association[45]
- Grassroot Grandmas[45]
- Former
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[48] (switched endorsement to Blake Masters)
Blake Masters
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[49]
- David M. McIntosh, Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[50]
- Robert C. O'Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[51]
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[52]
- Kash Patel, chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[52]
- U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present)[53]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[54]
- Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[55]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[56]
- Matt Gaetz, Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[54]
- Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[57]
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[58]
- Susie Wiles, political consultant and advisor to Donald Trump[59]
- Organizations
- Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[62][63]
Justin Olson
- Organizations
- Stand for Health Freedom[64]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 17.7% | Masters +15.0 |
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 16% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 4% | – | 9% |
| Emerson College | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 14% | 22% | 40% | 12% | 3% | – | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
| OH Predictive Insights | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 36% | 5% | 3% | – | 22% |
| Battleground Connect (R) | July 26–27, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 6% | – | 12% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 15% | 27% | 35% | 8% | 6% | – | 10% |
| Battleground Connect (R) | July 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% |
| Cygnal (R) | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 25% |
| Battleground Connect (R) | July 7–9, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 29% | 27% | 4% | – | – | 24% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 5% | 2% | – | 44% |
| Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners | July 5–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 5% | 0% | – | 45% |
| OH Predictive Insights | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 6% | 2% | – | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 28, 2022 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 15% | 10% | 29% | 5% | – | – | 41% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 7–9, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 4% | 4% | – | 22% |
| Data Orbital (R) | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 18% | 20% | 15% | – | – | 12% | 36% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | May 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 2% | – | 34% |
| Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 2] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 19% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | – | 33% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] | April 21–24, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | April 5–6, 2022 | 1,126 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 20% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 2% | – | 35% |
| OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R) | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 3% | 1% | – | 52% |
| Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R) | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
| co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1%[lower-alpha 3] | 52% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 4] | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1%[lower-alpha 3] | 56% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Adams |
Andy Biggs |
Mark Brnovich |
Doug Ducey |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 5] | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
| 6%[lower-alpha 5] | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% | ||||
| Data Orbital (R)[upper-alpha 6] | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Results
Republican primary results by county
Masters
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Lamon
- 30-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Blake Masters | 327,198 | 40.24% | |
| Republican | Jim Lamon | 228,467 | 28.10% | |
| Republican | Mark Brnovich | 144,092 | 17.72% | |
| Republican | Michael McGuire | 71,100 | 8.75% | |
| Republican | Justin Olson | 41,985 | 5.16% | |
| Write-in | 226 | 0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 813,068 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Nominee
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Marc Victor | 3,065 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 3,065 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[67] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors that use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[68]
With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups began to increase the amount of money they were spending on the race, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[69] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[70]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[71] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[72] | Tilt D | October 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[73] | Lean D | October 19, 2022 |
| Politico[74] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
| RCP[75] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| Fox News[76] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| DDHQ[77] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[78] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
| The Economist[79] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee
W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | Marc Victor | |||||
| 1 | October 6, 2022 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | Youtube | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Mark Kelly (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[80]
- Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[10]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former Governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[10]
- U.S. Senators
- Alex Padilla, U.S. Senator from California (2021–present)[81]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present)[82]
- U.S. Representatives
- Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2013–present)[83]
- U.S. Attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican)[11]
- State legislators
- Kirsten Engel, former state senator (2021) from the 10th district[83]
- Pete Hershberger, former state representative (2001–2008) from the 26th district (Republican)[84]
- Roberta Voss, former state representative (1997–2003) from the 19th district (Republican)[84]
- Local officials
- Cathy Carlat, Mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican)[11]
- Chip Wilson, Mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican)[11]
- Craig McFarland, Mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican)[11]
- David Ortega, Mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent)[11]
- Donald Huish, Mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican)[11]
- Jack Dillenberg, Mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican)[11]
- John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[11]
- Paul Johnson, former Mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent)[84]
- Regina Romero, Mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present)[83]
- Individuals
- Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States[85]
- Camila Cabello, singer[86]
- Kerry Washington, actress[86]
- Labor unions
- National Education Association[87]
- United Mine Workers of America[88]
- Communications Workers of America[89]
- National Association of Social Workers[89]
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[89]
- United Auto Workers[89]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[12]
- End Citizens United[13]
- Equality Arizona[90]
- Feminist Majority PAC[14]
- Human Rights Campaign[91]
- Jewish Dems[16]
- League of Conservation Voters[92]
- Let America Vote[13]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[19]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Renew America Movement[21]
- March On[17]
- Sierra Club[93]
- VoteVets.org[22]
- Forward Party[94]
- Brady Campaign[89]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[89]
- MoveOn[89]
- Stonewall Democrats[89]
- National Organization for Women[89]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[89]
- J Street PAC[89]
- Serve America PAC[89]
- Common Defense PAC[89]
- Voter Protection Project[89]
- BOLD Democrats[89]
- Progressive Turnout Project[89]
- Our Voice, Our Vote PAC[89]
Blake Masters (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[49]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021) and former Governor of Indiana (2013–2017)[95]
- Duke Buchan, U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (2018–2021)[96]
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[52]
- David M. McIntosh, former Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[50]
- Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[51]
- Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[52]
- Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)[96]
- Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019)[96]
- Chad Wolf, Acting United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans (2019–2021) and Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (2019)[96]
- U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present) and former Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019)[53]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[97]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[98]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[99]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[100]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[54]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[101]
- Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[55]
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) and former Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016)[102] (Independent)
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[54]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)[103]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[56]
- Debbie Lesko, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2018–present)[101]
- Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (R-TX) (1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-2013), candidate for President in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[104][105][106]
- David Schweikert, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2011-2013)[101]
- Governors
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona (2009–2015) and former Secretary of State of Arizona (2003–2009)[107]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[108]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) and former Arizona State Treasurer (2011–2015)[109][107]
- Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona (1991–1997)[107]
- Local officials
- Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–present)[110]
- Party officials
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present)[111]
- Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[57]
- Nick Fuentes, far-right livestreamer and white supremacist[112]
- Sean Hannity, host of Hannity and The Sean Hannity Show and conservative political commentator[113]
- Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[114]
- Jack Posobiec, political activist[112]
- Dave Smith, comedian, podcaster, and co-host of Legion of Skanks[115] (Libertarian)
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[58]
- Marc Victor, former Libertarian nominee for Arizona's other Senate seat in 2012[4] (Libertarian)
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Arizona Republican Party[111]
- Campaign for Working Families[117]
- Center for Arizona Policy[118]
- Club for Growth[50]
- FreedomWorks for America[119]
- National Federation of Independent Business[120]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[121]
- National Right to Life Committee[122]
- Political Victory Fund[123]
- Republicans for National Renewal[60]
- Tea Party Express[61]
- The Conservative Caucus[124]
- Turning Point Action[125]
- Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[62][63]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 6] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | October 30 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 3.7% | Masters +0.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.6% | 47.1% | 4.3% | Kelly +1.5 |
| 270ToWin | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.9% | 46.6% | 5.5% | Kelly +1.3 |
| Average | 48.3% | 47.2% | 4.5% | Kelly +1.1 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Marc Victor (L) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 1% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1%[lower-alpha 7] | 3% | ||||||||
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
| KAConsulting (R)[upper-alpha 7] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 2% | ||||||||
| HighGround Inc. | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | 6% | ||||||||
| Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 9] | 8% | ||||||||
| 1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 10] | 2% | ||||||||||
| Big Data Poll (R) | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Patriot Polling (R) | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 814 (RV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Civiqs | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 11] | 1% | ||||||||
| Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 1%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% | ||||||||
| 48% | 48% | 3% | 1%[lower-alpha 13] | – | ||||||||||||
| The Phillips Academy | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 14] | 5% | ||||||||
| Wick Insights (R) | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 15] | 1% | ||||||||
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | – | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Siena College/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[upper-alpha 8] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 40% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 16] | 11% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 6% | – | 6% | ||||||||
| co/efficient (R) | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[upper-alpha 9] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | <1%[lower-alpha 17] | 6% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 10] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Data for Progress (D) | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 18] | 3% | ||||||||
| HighGround Inc.[upper-alpha 11] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 40% | 5% | 3%[lower-alpha 19] | 10% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | 5% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 12] | October 9–10, 2022 | 894 (RV) | – | 54% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
| 551 (LV) | 55% | 38% | – | – | 7% | |||||||||||
| Ascend Action (R) | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 44% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 20] | 2% | ||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 13] | October 8–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | October 4–6, 2022 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 33% | 15% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Big Data Poll (R) | October 2–5, 2022 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| YouGov/CBS News | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 48% | – | – | 1% | ||||||||
| CNN/SSRS | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 21] | – | ||||||||
| 795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 22] | – | ||||||||||
| Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 23] | 9% | ||||||||
| Suffolk University | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Marist College | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% | ||||||||
| 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||||
| Data for Progress (D) | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 14–17, 2022 | 1080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| 52% | 45% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 13] | September 6–11, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 6% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 12] | September 9–10, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
| 563 (LV) | 55% | 35% | – | – | 9% | |||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | September 6–9, 2022 | 654 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 35% | 6% | – | 12% | ||||||||
| Emerson College | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 24] | 5% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 39% | 4% | – | 12% | ||||||||
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| RMG Research | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 12] | August 4–8, 2022 | 1,107 (A) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 34% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
| 877 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 34% | – | – | 16% | ||||||||||
| 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 14] | August 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 15] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 34% | – | 1% | 13% | ||||||||
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% | ||||||||||
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 16] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% | ||||||||
| Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 32% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 35% | – | – | 21% | ||||||||
Hypothetical polling
- Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Mark Brnovich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 15] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% | ||
| Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 18% |
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 15] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 14% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 16] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | – | 21% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Michael McGuire (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jack McCain (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 29% | 28% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kimberly Yee (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 35% | 19% |
- Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 9–16, 2022 | 938 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 12% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 16] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
- Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 1,322,027 | 51.39% | +0.23% | |
| Republican | Blake Masters | 1,196,308 | 46.51% | -2.30% | |
| Libertarian | Marc Victor (withdrawn) | 53,762 | 2.09% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 197 | 0.01% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 2,572,294 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
By congressional district
Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[127]
| District | Kelly | Masters | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 46% | David Schweikert |
| 2nd | 47% | 51% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress) |
| Eli Crane (118th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 76% | 21% | Ruben Gallego |
| 4th | 57% | 41% | Greg Stanton |
| 5th | 44% | 54% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 54% | 44% | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress) |
| Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 68% | 30% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 8th | 46% | 52% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Paveza with <1%
- Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
- Response with candidates' job titles
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Refused" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- "Another candidate" with 5%
- "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
- "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
- This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
- This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
- This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
- Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
- Poll conducted for Univision.
- Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
- This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
- This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
- This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
- This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
- This poll was sponsored by America Next
- This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
- This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - "National Right to Life Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate Race". Retrieved September 29, 2022.
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