2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent Senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,357,809 1,177,765
Percentage 66.2% 33.1%

Markey::      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
O'Connor:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Ed Markey
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ed Markey
Democratic

Democratic primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.[3]

In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey.[4] He announced that he would be launching a campaign on September 18.[5] According to Vox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent.[6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a humiliating primary defeat, but he resolved to run for re-election.[7]

Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for running to replace Markey, and journalists observed that his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale.[8] Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing.[9] This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.[9]

Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to essentially define himself for the first time to many voters.[10] The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from 1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusetts political bosses was widely used by his campaign.[10] Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left; Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on the internet.[10]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.[11] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents),[12][13] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,[14] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,[15] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,[16] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.[17]

As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticise the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden.[18] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family.[19] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats.[20]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ed Markey
Executive officials
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[72]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Date updated Joe
Kennedy III
Ed
Markey
Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
RealClearPolitics July 31 – August 27, 2020 August 27, 2020 40.8% 52.0% 7.2% Markey +11.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey
Maura
Healey
Shannon
Liss-Riordan
Joe
Kennedy III
Seth
Moulton
Steve
Pemberton
Allen
Waters
Other Undecided
Emerson College/WHDH August 25–27, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 44%
Data for Progress August 24–25, 2020 731 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% 7%
Suffolk University August 23–25, 2020 500 (LV) 51% 41% 0%[lower-alpha 3] 8%
UMass Lowell August 13–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 40% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress August 12–16, 2020 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 42% 15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31 – August 7, 2020 362 (LV) ± 7.0% 51% 36% 1% 12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 58%
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020 531 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 5] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ February 26–28, 2020 465 (LV) ± 4.4% 36% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 6] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB February 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% 40% 4% 13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 34% 35% 23%
Jan 17, 2020 Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
Dec 16, 2019 Waters withdraws from the race
Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 28% 42% 29%
26% <1% 35% 1% 0% 36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 42% 7%
Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 5% 5% 45%
May 20, 2019 Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[150]
May 19, 2019 Healey announces that she will not run
Apr 1, 2019 Waters announces his candidacy[151]
Dec 14, 2018 Moulton announces that he will not run[152]
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 (RV) 26% 27% 35%
636 (RV) 29% 25% 38%
Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 (LV) 24% 18% 45%

Debates

Results

Results by municipality

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in Western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.[153] Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.[154][21] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[155][156]

Democratic primary results[157]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 782,694 55.35%
Democratic Joe Kennedy III 629,359 44.51%
Democratic Write-ins 1,935 0.14%
Total votes 1,413,988 100.00%

Republican primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Results by municipality
Republican primary results[157]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin O'Connor 158,590 59.71%
Republican Shiva Ayyadurai 104,782 39.45%
Republican Write-ins 2,245 0.84%
Total votes 265,617 100.00%

Other candidates

Failed to qualify

Results

Libertarian primary results[157]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Other Write-ins 3,390 99.21%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 27 0.79%
Total votes 3,417 100.00%

Withdrawn

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, Co-Chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman[159][167]

Write-in candidate

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)[162]

Withdrawn

General election

The general election took place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[170] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[171] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[172] Safe D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[173] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[174] Safe D November 2, 2020
RCP[175] Safe D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[176] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[177] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[178] Safe D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ed Markey (D)
Vice Presidents
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[72]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
  • Bill Keating, U.S. Representative (MA-09) (2013–present) (2011–2013 in 10th district)[75]
  • Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative (MA-04) (2013–2021)[179]
  • Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative (CA-17) (2017–present)[76]
  • Richard Neal, U.S. Representative (MA-01) (2013–present) (1989–2013 in 2nd district)[75]
  • Stephen F. Lynch, U.S. Representative (MA-08) (2013–present) (2001–2013 in 9th district)[75]
  • Carolyn Maloney, U.S. Representative (NY-12) (2013–present) (1993–2013 in 14th district) and Chair of the House Oversight Committee (2019–present)[77]
  • Jim McGovern, U.S. Representative (MA-02) (2013–present) (1997–2013 in 3rd district) and Chair of the House Rules Committee (2019–present)[75]
  • Jerry Nadler, U.S. Representative (NY-10) (2013–present) (1992–1993 in 17th district) (1993–2013 in 8th district) and Chair of the House Judiciary Committee (2019–present)[77]
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative (NY-14) (2019–present)[78]
  • Lori Trahan, U.S. Representative (MA-03) (2019–present)[75]
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin O’Connor (R)
Statewide politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Kevin
O'Connor (R)
Other Undecided
MassInc October 23–30, 2020 929 (LV) 60% 29% 6%[lower-alpha 7] 5%
YouGov/UMass Amherst October 14–21, 2020 713 (LV) 65% 26% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 7%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 16–17, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 40% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Charlie Baker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Shannon
Liss-Riordan (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 54%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Joe
Kennedy III (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 41%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Steve
Pemberton (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 56%

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020[195]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 2,357,809 66.15% +4.28%
Republican Kevin O'Connor 1,177,765 33.05% -4.93%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) 21,134 0.59% N/A
Write-in 7,428 0.21% +0.06%
Total votes 3,564,136 100.0%
Democratic hold
By county
County[196] Ed Markey
Democratic
Kevin O'Connor
Republican
Shiva Ayyadurai
Independent
Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Barnstable 89,977 60.50 57,965 38.97 656 0.44 134 0.09 32,012 21.52 148,732
Berkshire 51,261 73.74 17,697 25.46 488 0.70 66 0.09 33,564 48.28 69,512
Bristol 155,927 57.35 113,750 41.84 1,418 0.52 801 0.29 42,177 15.51 271,896
Dukes 9,767 77.32 2,799 22.16 60 0.47 6 0.05 6,968 55.16 12,632
Essex 267,678 64.58 143,447 34.61 2,451 0.59 909 0.22 124,231 29.97 414,485
Franklin 29,900 71.49 11,241 26.88 570 1.36 114 0.27 18,659 44.61 41,825
Hampden 123,867 58.30 85,790 40.38 2,205 1.04 600 0.28 38,077 17.92 212,462
Hampshire 63,151 72.94 22,577 26.08 697 0.80 155 0.18 40,574 46.86 86,580
Middlesex 611,485 71.97 232,739 27.39 3,916 0.46 1,437 0.17 378,746 44.58 849,577
Nantucket 5,132 71.34 2,034 28.27 0 0.00 28 0.39 3,098 43.06 7,194
Norfolk 265,210 66.19 133,047 33.21 1,386 0.35 1,028 0.26 132,163 32.98 400,671
Plymouth 170,532 57.47 124,084 41.82 1,684 0.57 425 0.14 46,448 15.65 296,725
Suffolk 266,117 81.47 58,982 18.06 612 0.19 949 0.29 207,135 63.41 326,660
Worcester 247,805 58.28 171,613 40.36 4,991 1.17 776 0.18 76,192 17.92 425,185
Totals 2,357,809 66.15 1,177,765 33.04 21,134 0.59 7,428 0.21 1,180,044 33.11 3,564,136

Markey won all fourteen of Massachusetts' counties for the second election in a row.

See also

Notes

General
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Refused" with 0%
  4. "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. "Refused" with 1%
  7. "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  8. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the O'Connor campaign.

References

  1. "Election calendar" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
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