2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

The 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Chris Sununu Colin Van Ostern
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 354,040 337,589
Percentage 48.8% 46.6%

Sununu:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Van Ostern:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Chris Sununu
Republican

The primaries were held on September 13.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan was eligible to run for re-election to a third term in office, but she instead successfully ran for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Kelly Ayotte.[1][2][3][4] In the general election, Republican nominee Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Libertarian state representative Max Abramson to become the first Republican governor of New Hampshire elected since 2002. With a margin of 2.27%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in North Carolina.

Background

Governor Maggie Hassan, the incumbent from the Democratic Party, declined to run for reelection, choosing to seek a U.S. Senate seat instead. Both major parties had multiple declared candidates, leading to primary elections that were held September 13, 2016.

New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly
Derek
Dextraze
Ian
Freeman
Steve
Marchand
Colin
Van Ostern
Other Undecided
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 444 ± 5.1% 7% 1% 3% 6% 13% 71%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 5% 2% 12% 6% 74%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 458 ± 4.6% 15% 21% 64%

Results

Results by county:
Van Ostern
  •   Van Ostern—60–70%
  •   Van Ostern—50–60%
  •   Van Ostern—40–50%
  •   Van Ostern—30–40%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 37,696 51.99
Democratic Steve Marchand 18,338 25.29
Democratic Mark Connolly 14,840 20.47
Democratic Ian Freeman 1,069 1.47
Democratic Derek Dextraze 557 0.77
Total votes 72,500 100.00

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Frank Edelblut
  • 603 Alliance[25]
  • New Hampshire Liberty Alliance[26]
  • Fifty-seven current members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives: Chris Adams, Glen Aldrich, Keith Ammon, John Balcom, Steven Beaudoin, Rick Christie, James Coffey, Allen Cook, Susan Delemus, Dan Donovan, Eric Eastman, Tracy Emerick, Elizabeth Ferreira, Valerie Fraser, Harold French, Bart Fromuth, Dick Gordon, Linda Gould, Warren Groen, Joe Hannon, J.R. Hoell, Edith Hogan, Werner Horn, Ray Howard, Paul Ingbretson, Dan Itse, Tom Kaczynski, Joe Lachance, Don Lebrun, Don McClarren, Jim McConnell, Mark McLean, Carol McGuire, Dan McGuire, Josh Moore, Bill Ohm, Jeff Oligny, Jason Parent, Joe Pitre, Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien, Kimberly Rice, Eric Schleien, Carl Seidel, Tammy Simmons, Kathleen Souza, Greg Smith, James Spillane, Victoria Sullivan, Mike Sylvia, Dan Tamburello, Len Turcotte, Jordan Ulery, Peter Varney, Michael Vose, Joshua Whitehouse, Ted Wright, Kurt Wuelper[27]
  • The Conway Daily Sun[28]
Ted Gatsas
Chris Sununu
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Frank
Edelblut
Jeannie
Forrester
Ted
Gatsas
Jon
Lavoie
Chris
Sununu
Other Undecided
NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 619 ± 5.1% 4% 5% 21% 2% 27% 41%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 0% 7% 10% 44% 3% 36%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 454 ± 4.6% 12% 60% 28%

Results

Results by county:
Sununu
  •   Sununu—30–40%
  •   Sununu—<30%
Edelblut
  •   Edelblut—30–40%
  •   Edelblut—40–50%
Forrester
  •   Forrester—30–40%
  •   Forrester—40–50%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris Sununu 34,137 30.68
Republican Frank Edelblut 33,149 29.79
Republican Ted Gatsas 22,840 20.53
Republican Jeanie Forrester 19,716 17.72
Republican John Lavoie 1,429 1.28
Total votes 111,271 100.00

Libertarian Party

Declared

Independents

Declared

  • Mike Gill, businessman[43]
  • Jilletta Jarvis, training project manager[44][45]

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Tossup August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[47] Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[48] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[50] Tossup November 1, 2016
Governing[51] Tossup October 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 6, 2016 November 6, 2016 43.2% 44.4% 12.4% Sununu +1.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 55% 42% 3%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 48% 37% 2% 13%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 47% 38% 3% 12%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 2% 14%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 54% 42% 4%
Suffolk University Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 41% 6% 15%
American Research Group Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 46% 38% 2% 14%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 LV ± 4.4% 44% 49% 1% 5%
43% 45% <1% 10%
UMass Lowell/7News Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 43% 47% 5% 4%
901 RV ± 3.8% 41% 45% 5% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 54% 42% 4%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 47% 44% 9%
WMUR/UNH Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 40% 3% 14%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 49% 1% 5%
43% 45% 10%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 53% 43% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 40% 2% 14%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 53% 43% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 43% 40% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 43% 40% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 42% 41% 5% 12%
NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 42% 45% 2% 11%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 48% 43% 4% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 47% 46% 2% 4%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 47% 46% 2% 5%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 44% 43% 6% 7%
42% 39% 5% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 44% 38% 4% 15%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived 2017-09-14 at the Wayback Machine October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 53% 43% 4%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 44% 2% 8%
41% 41% 2% 15%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 39% 41% 6% 13%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 40% 2% 20%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Save the Children Action Network Sept 29–Oct 4, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 44% 44% 6% 6%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 44% 47% 2% 7%
41% 44% 2% 11%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 44% 45% 1% 10%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 49% 1% 7%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 35% 39% 26%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 34% 40% 25%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 34% 41% 25%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 32% 39% 29%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 26% 36% 37%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 34% 37% 29%
Hypothetical polling
with Maggie Hassan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 53% 36% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 55% 25% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 48% 41% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 52% 35% 13%
with Stefany Shaheen
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Stefany
Shaheen (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 37% 39% 23%
with Chris Pappas
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Pappas (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 33% 38% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Pappas (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 34% 38% 28%
with Terie Norelli
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terie
Norelli (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 33% 39% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terie
Norelli (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 34% 39% 27%
with Mark Connolly
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Frank
Edelblut (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3% 31% 24% 45%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 33% 24% 43%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3% 36% 38% 25%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 36% 40% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Stefany
Shaheen (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 40% 41% 19%
with Jackie Cilley
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 31% 37% 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 32% 26% 43%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 36% 37% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Frank
Edelblut (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3% 30% 25% 45%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 30% 26% 44%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 31% 40% 29%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 31% 38% 31%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 31% 37% 32%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 31% 27% 42%

Results

2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[52]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chris Sununu 354,040 48.84% +1.41%
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 337,589 46.57% -5.81%
Libertarian Max Abramson 31,243 4.31% N/A
Write-in 1,991 0.28% +0.09%
Total votes 724,863 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county

CountySununu#Sununu%Van Ostern#Van Ostern%Abramson#Abramson%Scatter#Scatter%Total votesMargin
Belknap18,79854.70%14,06940.94%1,4034.08%940.00%34,36413.76%
Carroll15,19252.38%12,50343.29%1,1263.90%580.00%28,8799.09%
Cheshire17,10742.25%21,47153.02%1,8024.45%1140.00%40,494-10.77%
Coos7,42448.90%7,00646.14%7024.62%510.00%15,1832.76%
Grafton19,68539.65%27,62155.64%2,2154.46%1220.00%49,643-15.99%
Hillsborough103,81149.70%95,23145.59%9,1284.37%6980.00%208,8684.11%
Merrimack37,29545.51%41,19550.26%3,2453.96%2220.00%81,957-4.75%
Rockingham94,38553.52%74,07642.00%7,4994.25%4110.00%176,37111.52%
Strafford29,57844.12%34,17350.97%3,1284.67%1640.00%67,043-6.85%
Sullivan10,76548.80%10,24446.43%9954.51%570.00%22,0612.37%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Results by congressional district

Sununu won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, which elected a Democrat.[53]

District Sununu Van Ostern Representative
1st 50% 45% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 47% 48% Annie Kuster

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

  1. Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_VSGBW8ADk Pundit prediction: Hassan knocks off Ayotte in 2016
  3. Andrea Drusch (February 19, 2015). "Why the Country's Most Powerless Governor Might Run for Senate". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 19, 2015. Retrieved April 18, 2015.
  4. Cahn, Emily (October 5, 2015). "Maggie Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire (Video)". Roll Call. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  5. "Mark Connolly planning to run for governor". Union LeaderWMUR. October 19, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015.
  6. DiStaso, John (March 31, 2016). "WMUR interview: Former Portsmouth Mayor Marchand running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  7. Josh McElveen (October 8, 2015). "Democrat Colin Van Ostern running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved October 8, 2015.
  8. John DiStaso (November 14, 2014). "Analysis: NH Democrats already have deep bench for top races in 2016". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  9. "Hosmer for Governor?". The Laconia Daily Sun. August 24, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
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  12. James Pindell (November 25, 2014). "Bedford Democrat quietly preparing to run for U.S. Senate against Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
  13. DiStaso, John (February 10, 2015). "Democratic political newcomer O'Connor files candidacy for 1st District U.S. House seat". NH Journal. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  14. Paul Steinhauser (December 11, 2014). "Paul Steinhauser: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter talks 2016, achievements in Congress". NH1. Archived from the original on December 15, 2014. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  15. DiStaso, John (September 20, 2015). "Shea-Porter announces she's running for US House again in 2016". WMUR.com. Manchester Hearst Properties Inc. Retrieved September 20, 2015.
  16. "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primaries Results". Politico. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
  17. "Timeline Photos - Rep Frank Edelblut | Facebook". www.facebook.com. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  18. John DiStaso (September 8, 2015). "Republican Forrester says she is considering run for governor". WMUR9. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
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  24. Adam Sexton (January 14, 2015). "Lozeau says she's not running for Nashua mayor again". WMUR9. Retrieved January 16, 2015.
  25. "603 Alliance Endorsements". The 603 Alliance. July 7, 2016. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  26. "New Hampshire Liberty Alliance 2016 State Candidate Endorsements". New Hampshire Liberty Alliance. July 11, 2016. Archived from the original on August 14, 2016. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  27. "Long List of NH House Members Endorsing Frank Edelblut for Governor". Frank Edelblut for Governor of New Hampshire 2016. August 2, 2016. Archived from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  28. "SUMMER'S OVER, NOW VOTE". The Conway Daily Sun. September 8, 2016.
  29. "An Editorial - Joseph W. McQuaid, Publisher: Jeanie Forrester for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. August 31, 2016.
  30. "Susan B. Anthony List Endorses Jeanie Forrester for NH Governor". Susan B. Anthony List. September 9, 2016.
  31. "SENATE MAJORITY LEADER JEB BRADLEY ENDORSES GATSAS AHEAD OF REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY". Gatsas for Governor. September 7, 2016.
  32. "Gatsas tops GOP gubernatorial candidates". The Keene Sentinel. September 9, 2016.
  33. "GOP: Ted Gatsas". Nashua Telegraph. September 4, 2016.
  34. "Charlie Bass Endorses Chris Sununu for Governor". Manchester Sun Times. February 4, 2016. Archived from the original on February 6, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
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  36. "Sununu endorsed by fellow executive councilors". Union Leader. November 23, 2015.
  37. "Former NH governors Gregg, Merrill endorse Christopher Sununu in gubernatorial contest". Keene Sentinel. November 19, 2015.
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  39. "Senate President Chuck Morse endorses Chris Sununu for Governor". June 8, 2016. Archived from the original on August 11, 2016. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  40. "Editorial: For Republicans, Chris Sununu". Concord Monitor. September 4, 2016.
  41. "Sununu deserves to be GOP standard-bearer". The Portsmouth Herald. September 11, 2016.
  42. Sullivan, Max (June 13, 2016). "Seabrook Rep. Max Abramson running for governor". Seacoastonline.com. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  43. "Forrester to become fourth Republican candidate for governor". WMUR. March 22, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  44. Schinella, Tony (May 18, 2016). "Jarvis Launches Indie Bid for Governor of NH". Concord Patch. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  45. "Jilletta Jarvis for NH Governor 2016". Jilletta Jarvis for NH Governor 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  46. "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  47. "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  48. "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  49. "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
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  53. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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