Next Basque regional election

The next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 11 August 2024, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Basque regional election
No later than 11 August 2024
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader TBD TBD Eneko Andueza
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSOE
Leader since TBD TBD 30 October 2021
Leader's seat TBD TBD Gipuzkoa
Last election 31 seats, 38.7% 21 seats, 27.6% 10 seats, 13.5%
  Javier_de_Andrés_
Leader TBD Javier de Andrés TBD
Party Elkarrekin
Podemos–IU		 PP CS
Leader since TBD 4 October 2023 TBD
Leader's seat TBD Álava TBD
Last election 6 seats, 8.0% 5 seats (PP+Cs)[lower-alpha 1] 1 seats (PP+Cs)[lower-alpha 1]
 
Leader Amaia Martínez
Party Vox
Leader since 3 August 2020
Leader's seat Álava
Last election 1 seats, 1.9%
Incumbent Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV


Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the regional Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari.[1]

Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Basques abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats each to provide for an equal representation of the three provinces in parliament as required under the regional statute of autonomy.[1][3] This means that Álava is allocated the same number of seats as Biscay and Gipuzkoa, despite their populations being, as of 1 July 2020, 330,242, 1,142,323 and 716,925, respectively.[4]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 12 July 2020, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 12 July 2024. The election decree shall be published in the BOPV no later than 18 June 2024 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 11 August 2024.[1][3]

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.[6]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[7]

Current parliamentary composition[8]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group EAJ/PNV 31 31
EH Bildu Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 21 21
Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group PSE–EE (PSOE) 10 10
Elkarrekin Podemos–IU Parliamentary Group Podemos 4 6
EzAn–IU 2
Basque People's Parliamentary Group[9] PP 5[lower-alpha 2] 5
Mixed Group Vox 1 2
CS 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][11]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Possible candidates:

EAJ/PNV: Iñigo Urkullu (Unannounced)

EHBildu: Arnaldo Otegi (He has shown that he will not appear), Arkaitz Rodriguez (Sortu leader, Unannounced)

PSE-EE: Eneko Andueza (Confirmed, only candidate in primary)

Elkarrekin Podemos/Sumar: Miren Gorrotxategi (He has shown that he wants to present himself)

PP: Javier de Andrés (Confirmed, only candidate in primary)

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
EAJ/PNV
List
 Iñigo Urkullu Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy		 38.70% 31 checkY
EH Bildu
List
 TBD Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism		 27.60% 21 ☒N [12]
PSE–EE
(PSOE)
List
 Eneko Andueza Social democracy 13.52% 10 checkY [13]
Elkarrekin
Podemos–IU
List
 Miren Gorrotxategi Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 7.97% 6 ☒N
PP
List
 Carlos Iturgaiz Conservatism
Christian democracy		 6.71%[lower-alpha 3] 6 ☒N
CS
List
 José Manuel Gil Liberalism ☒N [14]
Vox
List
 Amaia Martínez Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 1.94% 1 ☒N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PNV PSE–EE (PSOE) Vox PP CS Sumar Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] 13–15 Sep 2023 800 ? 32.1
25		 32.5
27		 17.0
13		 5.1
3		 – 2.8
1		 7.9
6		 1.1
0		 – 0.4
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 67.6 24.0
(17)		 23.9
(18)		 25.2
(20)		 [lower-alpha 4] – 2.6
(1)		 11.4
(10)		 – 11.0
(9)		 1.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] 28 May–15 Jun 2023 5,804 ? 34.7
28		 31.2
24		 12.3
9		 9.2
6		 – 2.6
1		 9.5
7		 – – 3.5
2023 foral election 28 May 2023 — 59.9 34.5
(26)		 28.7
(24)		 16.2
(13)		 6.9
(5)		 – 1.5
(0)		 8.8
(7)		 – – 5.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] 15 Mar–29 Apr 2022 228 ? 36.2
28		 29.0
24		 12.2
9		 8.8
6		 8.6
7		 2.0
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 7.2
Ikerfel/GPS[p 4][p 5] 21–25 Feb 2022 3,333 55.2 39.3
31		 27.3
22		 14.3
12		 7.0
4		 6.2
5		 2.7
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 12.0
Ikerfel/GPS[p 6][p 7] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2021 3,333 55.5 39.6
31		 27.5
23		 14.0
10		 6.7
4		 6.7
6		 2.2
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 12.1
Ikerfel/GPS[p 8][p 9] 27 Sep–1 Oct 2021 3,333 56.2 39.4
31		 27.7
23		 13.9
11		 6.8
4		 6.9
5		 1.9
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 11.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10] 15 Sep 2021 ? ? 40.0
31		 27.3
23		 13.5
10		 6.4
4		 8.2
7		 1.7
0		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 12.7
Ikerfel/GPS[p 11][p 12] 17–21 May 2021 3,333 55.1 39.0
31		 27.5
22		 13.6
10		 6.6
4		 7.7
7		 1.7
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 11.5
2020 regional election 12 Jul 2020 — 50.8 38.7
31		 27.6
21		 13.5
10		 8.0
6		 6.7
6		 1.9
1		 [lower-alpha 5] [lower-alpha 5] – 11.1

Notes
  1. Within the PP+Cs alliance in the 2020 election.
  2. Luis Gordillo, former Cs legislator, joined in October 2021.[10]
  3. Results for PP+Cs in the 2020 election.
  4. Within Sumar.
  5. Within PP+Cs.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "Otegi cerca de ser 'lehendakari': fuerte caída del PNV y Sánchez tendría que decidir". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 September 2023.
  2. "ElectoPanel Euskadi (18J): subida de EH Bildu, que se acerca al PNV". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 June 2023.
  3. "EuskoPanel (30A): subida de EH Bildu, que roza el 30%. Ligero descenso del PNV". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 April 2022.
  4. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Marzo 2022)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 4 March 2022.
  5. "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 04/03/2022: EH BILDU 27,3% (22), EAJ-PNV 39,3% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 7,0% (4), PSE-EE 14,3% (12), PP+Cs 6,2% (5), VOX 2,7% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 March 2022.
  6. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Diciembre 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 16 December 2021.
  7. "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 16/12/2021: EH BILDU 27,5% (23), EAJ-PNV 39,6% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,7% (4), PSE-EE 14,0% (10), PP+Cs 6,7% (6), VOX 2,2% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 December 2021.
  8. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Octubre 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  9. "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 08/10/2021: EH BILDU 27,7% (23), EAJ-PNV 39,4% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,8% (4), PSE-EE 13,9% (11), PP+Cs 6,9% (5), VOX 1,9% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  10. "EuskoPanel (15S): Vox quedaría fuera del Parlamento Vasco". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 September 2021.
  11. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Mayo 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.
  12. "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 28/05/2021: EH BILDU 27,5% (22), EAJ-PNV 39,0% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,6% (4), PSE-EE 13,6% (10), PP+Cs 7,7% (7), VOX 1,7% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco". Organic Law No. 3 of 18 December 1979 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco". Law No. 5 of 15 June 1990 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. "Series detalladas desde 2002. Resultados por Provincias. Población residente por fecha, sexo y edad". ine.es (in Spanish). National Institute of Statistics. Retrieved 3 April 2021.
  5. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. "Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno". Law No. 7 of 30 June 1981 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  7. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (1980 - 2020)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  8. "Parliamentarians and bodies. Groups. Composition. 12th Legislature". www.legebiltzarra.eus (in Spanish). Basque Parliament. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  9. "Ciudadanos abandona el grupo del PP en el Parlamento Vasco y pasa a compartir el mixto con Vox" (in Spanish). EiTB. 26 July 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
  10. Izarra, Josean (7 October 2021). "Luis Gordillo, ex líder de Ciudadanos y parlamentario, ficha por el PP del País Vasco". El Mundo (in Spanish). Vitoria. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  11. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  12. "Kortajarena asume la portavocía de EH Bildu en el Parlamento Vasco tras la marcha de Iriarte y Casanova". Noticias de Gipuzkoa (in Spanish). 26 June 2023. Retrieved 26 June 2023.
  13. Rioja Andueza, Iker (30 October 2021). "Eneko Andueza arrasa con un 95% de los votos en las primarias y será el nuevo líder de los socialistas vascos". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 October 2021.
  14. Rioja Andueza, Iker (14 September 2023). "Ciudadanos se estrena en Euskadi mientras desaparece en España: "Nos presentaremos a las elecciones"". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Vitoria. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
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