2023 Ceuta Assembly election
The 2023 Ceuta Assembly election, were held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous city of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
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All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 63,269  1.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 34,534 (54.6%)0.1 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral system
The Assembly of Ceuta is the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta.[1] Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allows Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[2]
The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2]
The Mayor-President is indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause requires that mayoral candidates earn the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly shall be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[1]
The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[2]
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | .svg.png.webp){kind=logo} |
 |
 |
MDyC |  |
.svg.png.webp){kind=logo} |
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CY! | CA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Assembly election | 28 May 2023 | — | 57.2 | 34.4 9 |
21.0 6 |
20.6 5 |
11.2 3 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.7 0 |
0.5 0 |
10.0 2 |
– | 13.4 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 1][p 2] | 11–17 May 2023 | 250 | ? | 34.1 9 |
25.0 7 |
21.3 5 |
10.3 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.8 0 |
– | 7.4 2 |
– | 9.1 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 3][p 4] | 4–10 May 2023 | 250 | ? | 33.4 9 |
25.3 7 |
21.6 5 |
10.4 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.8 0 |
– | 7.4 2 |
– | 8.1 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 5][p 6] | 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 250 | ? | 33.5 9 |
25.5 7 |
21.2 5 |
10.5 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.8 0 |
– | 7.5 2 |
– | 8.0 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 7][p 8] | 19–25 Apr 2023 | 250 | ? | 33.5 9 |
25.8 7 |
20.8 5 |
10.2 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.6 0 |
– | 7.8 2 |
– | 7.7 |
| GAD3/RTVCE[p 9] | 20–24 Apr 2023 | 803 | ? | 39.3 11 |
19.5 5 |
21.3 5/6 |
10.8 2/3 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.3 0 |
1.1 0 |
6.0 1 |
– | 18.0 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 10][p 11] | 12–18 Apr 2023 | 250 | ? | 29.7 8 |
25.6 7 |
20.2 6 |
9.7 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.6 0 |
– | 8.3 2 |
4.9 0 |
4.1 |
| SyM Consulting[p 12][p 13] | 7–11 Apr 2023 | 818 | 49.6 | 24.9 6/7 |
21.9 6 |
31.8 8 |
10.7 2/3 |
[lower-alpha 2] | – | – | 7.3 2 |
– | 6.9 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 14][p 15] | 5–11 Apr 2023 | 250 | ? | 30.4 9 |
25.1 7 |
19.9 5 |
9.8 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.6 0 |
– | 8.3 2 |
4.9 0 |
5.3 |
| Dialoga Consultores/CeutaTV[p 16] | 9 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 35.0 9/11 |
31.2 8/10 |
18.9 4/6 |
5.5 1/2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.3 0 |
0.3 0 |
3.5 0 |
4.2 0/1 |
3.8 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 17][p 18] | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 250 | ? | 31.0 9 |
24.7 7 |
19.5 5 |
9.8 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.6 0 |
– | 8.4 2 |
4.8 0 |
6.3 |
| GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta[p 19] | 23 Jan–10 Feb 2023 | 1,004 | ? | 38.4 11 |
21.9 6 |
19.1 5 |
9.6 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.4 0 |
– | 5.0 1 |
3.1 0 |
16.5 |
| SyM Consulting[p 20][p 21] | 5–9 Dec 2022 | 1,279 | 52.8 | 25.4 6/7 |
20.2 5 |
32.8 9 |
7.4 1/2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | – | – | 9.3 3 |
1.9 0 |
7.4 |
| GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta[p 22] | 2–14 Sep 2022 | 684 | ? | 36.3 10 |
20.2 5 |
18.4 5 |
7.1 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 0.4 0 |
– | 6.0 1 |
9.9 2 |
16.1 |
| SyM Consulting[p 23][p 24] | 6–10 Jul 2022 | 1,116 | 53.8 | 25.4 7 |
20.8 5/6 |
31.9 8/9 |
9.2 2 |
[lower-alpha 2] | – | – | 7.2 2 |
2.2 0 |
6.5 |
| NC Report/El Faro de Ceuta[p 25] | 3 Feb 2022 | ? | 57.9 | 33.8 9 |
27.4 8 |
23.4 6 |
5.1 1 |
[lower-alpha 2] | 1.4 0 |
1.4 0 |
5.7 1 |
– | 6.4 |
| SyM Consulting[p 26][p 27] | 16–19 Dec 2021 | 740 | 56.0 | 23.8 6 |
22.1 6 |
32.9 8/9 |
11.6 3 |
[lower-alpha 2] | – | – | 5.8 1/2 |
– | 9.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 28] | 30 Sep 2021 | ? | ? | 28.6 8 |
23.6 6 |
25.7 7 |
10.3 2 |
9.0 2 |
1.5 0 |
– | – | – | 2.9 |
| SyM Consulting[p 29][p 30] | 20–23 May 2021 | 732 | 53.2 | 26.6 7 |
23.3 6 |
28.2 7/8 |
10.1 2/3 |
7.8 2 |
– | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 31] | 15 Feb 2021 | 400 | ? | 31.7 9 |
21.1 6 |
22.4 6 |
10.2 2 |
10.4 2 |
1.9 0 |
– | – | – | 9.3 |
| SyM Consulting[p 32][p 33] | 9–12 Dec 2020 | 652 | 49.8 | 25.0 7 |
20.1 5/6 |
28.3 7/8 |
8.9 2 |
12.7 3 |
– | – | – | – | 3.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 34] | 16 Aug–26 Sep 2020 | ? | ? | 38.9 10 |
22.1 6 |
15.6 4 |
10.9 3 |
8.9 2 |
2.3 0 |
– | – | – | 16.8 |
| SyM Consulting[p 35][p 36] | 12–13 Sep 2020 | 687 | 50.8 | 29.8 8 |
20.5 5/6 |
23.4 6/7 |
11.4 3 |
9.7 2 |
– | – | – | – | 6.4 |
| SyM Consulting[p 37][p 38] | 22–23 Jun 2020 | 564 | 59.3 | 35.4 9/10 |
26.1 7 |
14.5 4 |
8.3 2/3 |
9.2 2 |
1.8 0 |
– | – | – | 9.3 |
| SyM Consulting[p 39][p 40] | 25–26 May 2020 | 541 | 65.9 | 39.3 10/11 |
18.2 5 |
8.4 2 |
16.8 4/5 |
12.0 3 |
1.4 0 |
– | – | – | 21.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 41][p 42] | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 40.0 11 |
24.2 7 |
16.4 4 |
7.6 2 |
6.4 1 |
2.4 0 |
– | – | – | 15.8 |
| SyM Consulting[p 43][p 44] | 1–2 Feb 2020 | 534 | 61.7 | 39.1 10/11 |
24.9 7 |
7.9 2 |
12.5 3 |
10.1 2/3 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | – | 14.2 |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 54.0 | 22.3 6 |
31.3 9 |
35.2 10 |
2.5 0 |
– | 3.4 0 |
3.9 0 |
– | – | 3.9 |
| 2019 Assembly election | 26 May 2019 | — | 56.9 | 31.1 9 |
25.6 7 |
22.4 6 |
7.0 2 |
6.2 1 |
4.5 0 |
1.5 0 |
– | – | 5.5 |
Results
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 11,738 | 34.37 | +3.25 | 9 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 7,158 | 20.96 | –4.64 | 6 | –1 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 7,050 | 20.64 | –1.73 | 5 | –1 | |
| Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC) | 3,839 | 11.24 | +4.28 | 3 | +1 | |
| Ceuta Now! (Ceuta Ya!)1 | 3,428 | 10.04 | +3.82 | 2 | +1 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) | 236 | 0.69 | –3.85 | 0 | ±0 | |
| We Can (Podemos)2 | 186 | 0.54 | –0.95 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Free (LB) | 121 | 0.35 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 393 | 1.15 | +0.55 | |||
| Total | 34,149 | 25 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 34,149 | 98.89 | –0.25 | |||
| Invalid votes | 385 | 1.11 | +0.25 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 34,534 | |||||
| Abstentions | ||||||
| Registered voters | 63,269 | |||||
| Sources | ||||||
Footnotes:
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Aftermath
| Investiture | |||
| Ballot → | 17 June 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 13 out of 25 | ||
|
9 / 25 |
 | |
|
3 / 25 |
 | |
2 / 25 |
| ||
11 / 25 | |||
| Absentees | 0 / 25 | ||
| Sources[3] | |||
References
- Opinion poll sources
- "El sondeo de Ceuta y Melilla al margen de las sospechas de la compra de voto". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
- "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
- "Esto es lo que pasará el 28-M en Ceuta y Melilla, según el último pronóstico electoral". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
- "La estimación de escaños de Ceuta y Melilla deja todo abierto de cara a las elecciones autonómicas". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
- "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría en las ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría el apoyo de la extrema derecha". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
- "Encuesta elecciones Ceuta". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
- "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría de la extrema derecha para gobernar en las ciudades autónomas". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
- "Estimación oleada Abril 2023. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
- "[AUT] CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 28/04/2023: CEUTA YA! 7,3% (2), MDyC 10,7% (2/3), PSOE 21,9% (6), PP 24,9% (6/7), VOX 31,8% (8)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría pactar con Vox o PSOE para repetir gobierno". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
- "Encuesta electoral. Hay partido. El PP va ganando (10), pero el PSOE podría ganar (9)". CeutaTV (in Spanish). 9 April 2023.
- "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría las elecciones en ambas ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría apoyos para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
- "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
- "Vivas ganaría las elecciones, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta según GAD3". El Pueblo de Ceuta (in Spanish). 21 February 2023.
- "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2022. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 4 January 2023.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 04/01/2023: CEUTA YA! 9,3% (3), MDyC 7,4% (1/2), PSOE 20,2% (5), CEUTA AVANZA 1,9%, PP 25,4% (6/7), VOX 32,8% (9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 January 2023.
- "El PP sumaría un escaño más y ganaría de nuevo las elecciones en Ceuta, según GAD3". El Pueblo de Ceuta (in Spanish). 20 September 2022.
- "Estimación oleada Julio 2022. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 15/07/2022: CEUTA YA! 7,2% (2), MDyC 9,2% (2), PSOE 20,8% (5/6), CEUTA AVANZA 2,2%, PP 25,4% (7), VOX 31,9% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
- "Una encuesta de NC Report da al PP la victoria electoral en 2023". El Faro de Ceuta (in Spanish). 3 February 2022.
- "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2021. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/12/2021: CEUTA YA! 5,8% (1/2), MDyC 11,6% (3), PSOE 22,1% (6), PP 23,8% (6), VOX 32,9% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
- "EP Ceuta (30S): PP y Vox entran en empate técnico". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 September 2021.
- "Estimación oleada Mayo 2021. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 26 May 2021.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 26/05/2021: CABALLAS 7,8% (2), MDyC 10,1% (2/3), PSOE 23,3% (6), PP 26,6% (7), VOX 28,2% (7/8)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 May 2021.
- "EP (15F): doble sorpasso en Ceuta (Vox al PSOE y Caballas a MDyC). En Melilla, bajada del PP y subida de CpM, que le acecha". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 February 2021.
- "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 21/12/2020: CABALLAS 12,7% (3), MDyC 8,9% (2), PSOE 20,1% (5/6), PP 25,0% (7), VOX 28,3% (7/8)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
- "EP Autonómico (30S): subida de MDyC y bajada del PP que dejan a la izquierda más cerca del Gobierno de Ceuta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 September 2020.
- "Estimación oleada Septiembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 17/09/2020: CABALLAS 9,7% (2), MDyC 11,4% (3), PSOE 20,5% (5/6), PP 29,8% (8), VOX 23,4% (6/7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
- "Estimación oleada Julio 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/06/2020: CABALLAS 9,2% (2/3), MDyC 8,3% (2), PSOE 26,1% (7), Cs 1,8%, PP 35,4% (9/10), VOX 14,5% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
- "Estimación oleada Mayo 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 01/06/2020: CABALLAS 12,0% (3), MDyC 16,8% (4/5), PSOE 18,2% (5), Cs 1,4%, PP 39,3% (10/11), VOX 8,4% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
- "EP (17My): Ceuta – trasvase de Vox al PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- "Estimación oleada Febrero 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.
- "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 05/02/2020: CABALLAS 10,1% (2/3), MDyC 12,5% (3), PSOE 24,9% (7), Cs 1,6%, PP 39,1% (10/11), VOX 7,9% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.
- Other
- "Ley Orgánica 1/1995, de 13 de marzo, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Ceuta". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995. Retrieved 21 February 2020.
{{cite book}}:|work=ignored (help) - "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
{{cite book}}:|work=ignored (help) - "El popular Juan Vivas, investido por séptima vez presidente de Ceuta con la abstención de PSOE y Vox". eldiario.es. 17 June 2023. Retrieved 20 June 2023.