Next Portuguese legislative election

The next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 11 October 2026 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

Next Portuguese legislative election

On or before 11 October 2026

230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
António Costa- 2017 - Web Summit - 24778904437.jpg
Luís Montenegro.jpg
André Ventura (Agencia LUSA, Entrevista Presidenciais 2021), cropped.png
Leader António Costa Luís Montenegro André Ventura
Party PS PSD CH
Leader since 28 September 2014 28 May 2022 9 April 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon [lower-alpha 1] Lisbon
Last election 120 seats, 41.4% 77 seats, 29.1% 12 seats, 7.2%
Seats needed In majority Increase 39 Increase 104

 
Rui Rocha.jpg
Paulo Raimundo (Agência Lusa 2023-10-18) (cropped).png
Mariana Mortágua, tempo de antena sobre justiça fiscal, Legislativas 2022.png
Leader Rui Rocha Paulo Raimundo Mariana Mortágua[lower-alpha 2]
Party IL PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 22 January 2023 12 November 2022 28 May 2023
Leader's seat Braga Lisbon
Last election 8 seats, 4.9% 6 seats, 4.3%[lower-alpha 3] 5 seats, 4.4%
Seats needed Increase 108 Increase 110 Increase 111

 
Inês_Sousa_Real.jpg
Rui Tavares 2022.png
Leader Inês Sousa Real Rui Tavares
Teresa Mota[lower-alpha 4]
Party PAN LIVRE
Leader since 6 June 2021 6 March 2022
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon
Braga[lower-alpha 5]
Last election 1 seat, 1.6% 1 seat, 1.3%
Seats needed Increase 115 Increase 115


Incumbent Prime Minister

António Costa
PS



Background

The Socialist Party (PS), led by Prime Minister António Costa, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41% of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), got 77 seats and 29% of the votes, while far-right party Chega (Enough) gain 12 seats and 7%. The Liberal Initiative (IL) were able to win 8 seats and gather almost 5% of the votes. The far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved one of their worst results ever with 4% of the votes and 6 and 5 seats, respectively. PAN and LIVRE were able to win just one seat each.[1]

António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government has been very unstable with several scandals and/or controversies affecting it and until mid 2023, the government had already suffered 13 resignations, 11 Secretaries of state and 2 Ministers.[2] The main controversy that engulfed the government was a case regarding TAP Air Portugal and a reparation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis.[3] This case was followed by an incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure building between government staff and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop.[4] The use of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case generated a clash between President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Prime Minister António Costa regarding the continuity of minister João Galamba and of the government itself.[5]

Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by their own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[6] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2026.[7]

CDS – People's Party

In the 2022 elections, the CDS–People's Party was wiped out from Parliament for the first time in 47 years of democracy.[8] CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos resigned on election night and announced that a leadership ballot would be held.[9] On 11 February, it was announced that a new leader would be elected in a party congress on 2 and 3 April 2022 held in Guimarães.[10] MEP Nuno Melo, former MP Nuno Correia da Silva, 2016 leadership candidate Miguel Mattos Chaves and Bruno Filipe Costa announced they would contest the ballot.[11][12][13][14] During the congress, Bruno Filipe Costa and Nuno Correia da Silva dropped out from the race.[15] Nuno Melo was easily elected as leader with more than 73% of the votes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 2 April 2022
Candidate Votes %
Nuno Melo 854 77.5
Miguel Mattos Chaves 104 9.4
Others[lower-alpha 6] 144 13.1
Turnout 1,102
Source: Results

Social Democratic Party

Luís Montenegro addressing the 40th Congress of the PSD in Porto.

After the Social Democratic Party's (PSD) defeat in the 2022 legislative election, Rui Rio announced he would not run again for the PSD leadership and would call a snap leadership ballot in order to elect a new leader.[16] The ballot was held on 28 May 2022.[17] Luís Montenegro, former PSD parliamentary group leader (2011-2018), and Jorge Moreira da Silva, former Environment minister (2013-2015), were the only candidates on the ballot.[18] Around 45,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, registered to vote.[19] Montenegro defeated Moreira da Silva by a landslide, becoming the 19th leader of the PSD.[20] The results were the following:

Ballot: 28 May 2022
Candidate Votes %
Luís Montenegro 19,241 72.5
Jorge Moreira da Silva 7,306 27.5
Blank/Invalid ballots 437
Turnout 26,984 60.46
Source: Official results

Portuguese Communist Party

Paulo Raimundo speaking during the Party's Conference that elected him as the Secretary-General of the PCP.

On 5 November 2022, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) announced that Jerónimo de Sousa, party leader since 2004, was departing from the leadership because of health reasons and the demands that the post requires.[21] The party choose Paulo Raimundo, a party employee and member since 1994, as new leader[22] whose nomination was confirmed in a Central Committee meeting on 12 November 2022 by unanimous vote, with one abstention, from Raimundo himself.[23] The results were the following:

Ballot: 12 November 2022
Candidate Votes %
Paulo Raimundo 128 99.2
Against 0 0.0
Abstention 1 0.8
Turnout 129
Source: Results

Liberal Initiative

Rui Rocha delivering his victory speech at the Party's Convention on 22 January 2023 in Lisbon.

On 23 October 2022, party leader João Cotrim Figueiredo announced he was leaving the party leadership and called a snap leadership ballot.[24] Shortly after Cotrim's announcement, MP Rui Rocha from Braga, stepped forward and announced his intention to run for the leadership.[25] Two days after, Carla Castro, MP from Lisbon, also presented her candidacy to the leadership.[26] A few weeks later, the party decided on a date, and location, for the leadership ballot and the new leader would be elected in a National Convention between 21 and 22 January 2023 in Lisbon.[27] A third candidate for the leadership, José Cardoso, critic of Figueiredo's leadership and strategy, announced his candidacy on 2 January 2023.[28] Around 2,300 party members registered to vote in the leadership convention.[29] Rui Rocha was elected as the 4th President of the Liberal Initiative with almost 52% of the votes.[30] The results were the following:

Ballot: 22 January 2023
Candidate Votes %
Rui Rocha 888 51.7
Carla Castro 757 44.0
José Cardoso 74 4.3
Blank/Invalid ballots 9
Turnout 1,728 74.26
Source:[31]

People Animals Nature

People Animals Nature (PAN) held a leadership ballot on 20 May 2023.[32] Two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Inês Sousa Real and Nelson Silva, MP between 2019 and 2022. Silva accused Sousa Real of leading the party to irrelevance and that now it's time to "save" and "rebuilt" the party.[33] In a rather tense congress, with strong accusations between both sides,[34] Inês Sousa Real was reelected as party leader with 73% of the votes.[35] The results were the following:

Ballot: 20 May 2023
Candidate Votes %
Inês Sousa Real 97 72.9
Nelson Silva 35 26.3
Blank/Invalid ballots 1 0.8
Turnout 133
Source:[36]

Left Bloc

Mariana Mortágua announcing her candidacy on 27 February 2023 in Lisbon.

On 14 February 2023, party coordinator Catarina Martins announced she would not run for another term as party leader.[37] Her reasons were that the party needed someone new to lead it, that in the party there are not very long periods of leadership and that the "new political cycle" forces a change. A party leadership convention was held between 27 and 28 May 2023, in Lisbon.[38]

While names like MEP Marisa Matias and caucus leader Pedro Filipe Soares discarded a candidacy for the leadership, MP Mariana Mortágua decided to run for the party leadership.[39] Her candidacy was confirmed on 27 February 2023.[40] A list of critics of the then party leadership, led by former MP Pedro Soares, opposed Mortágua in the convention ballot.[41] On 28 May 2023, Mariana Mortágua was easily elected as new party coordinator with 83% of the delegates votes.[42] The results were the following:

Ballot: 28 May 2023
Candidate Votes %
Mariana Mortágua 439 83.1
Pedro Soares 78 14.8
Abstentions 11 2.1
Turnout 528 80.74
Source:[43]

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[44]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[45] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[46]

The distribution of MPs by electoral district in the 2022 general election was the following:[47]

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon48
Porto40
Braga19
Setúbal18
Aveiro16
Leiria10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém9
Viseu8
Madeira and Viana do Castelo6
Azores and Vila Real5
Castelo Branco4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2022 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista
Social democracy Centre-left António Costa 41.4%
120 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata
Liberal conservatism Centre-right Luís Montenegro 29.1%
77 / 230
CH Enough!
Chega!
National conservatism
Right-wing populism
Right-wing
to far-right
André Ventura 7.2%
12 / 230
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal
Classical liberalism
Centre-right
to right-wing
Rui Rocha 4.9%
8 / 230
PCP[lower-alpha 3] Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Left-wing
to far-left
Paulo Raimundo 4.3%
6 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda
Democratic socialism
Left-wing populism
Left-wing
to far-left
Mariana Mortágua 4.4%
5 / 230
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
Animal welfare
Environmentalism
Centre-left Inês Sousa Real 1.6%
1 / 230
L FREE
LIVRE
Green politics
Pro-Europeanism
Centre-left
to left-wing
Rui Tavares & Teresa Mota 1.3%
1 / 230

Opinion polling

Local Regression of polls conducted since the election
Local Regression of polls conducted since the election

Polling aggregations

Polling aggregator Last update PS PSD CH IL BE CDU CDS–PP PAN L Lead
Politico 23 Oct 2023 29 27 13 7 7 4 2 3 2 2
PolitPro 12 Oct 2023 30.2 26.5 13.0 5.2 6.7 4.8 2.2 2.7 2.4 3.7
Marktest 5 Oct 2023 29.3 25.6 13.6 5.3 7.1 4.3 2.6 3.8 2.8 3.7
Europe Elects 5 Oct 2023 30.0 25.7 13.4 6.1 7.4 4.5 1.7 2.8 2.5 4.3
2022 legislative election[1] 30 Jan 2022 41.4
120
29.1
77
7.2
12
4.9
8
4.4
5
4.3
6
1.6
0
1.6
1
1.3
1
12.3

See also

Notes

  1. Luís Montenegro formerly served as a MP from Aveiro District between 2002 and 2018. In the present Parliament, he hasn't got a seat.
  2. The Left Bloc (BE) has a collective leadership. Mariana Mortágua is the party's current coordinator.
  3. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2022 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 4.3% of the vote and elected 6 MPs to parliament.
  4. LIVRE has no formal single leader; the party has 15-member leadership committee of which Rui Tavares and Teresa Mota serve as spokespersons.
  5. Teresa Mota was not elected in Braga district.
  6. CDS members that presented party motions but who were not running for the party's leadership.

References

  1. "Resultados Globais". Ministry of Internal Administration (in Portuguese). Retrieved 31 January 2022.
  2. "Terceiro Governo de Costa já teve 13 baixas em apenas 16 meses", ECO, 7 July 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  3. "26 dias. Alexandra Reis durou menos tempo no Governo que Miguel Alves ", ECO, 28 December 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  4. "Acusações, ocultações, suspeitas de agressões - até houve pessoas refugiadas no WC: guia para entender a nova crise no Governo (mas dá mesmo para entendê-la?)", CNN Portugal, 28 April 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  5. "Marcelo arrasa Galamba e promete ser mais "interventivo" e "atento" com Costa", Diário de Notícias, 4 May 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  6. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2014. Retrieved 7 October 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  7. Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
  8. "Histórico: CDS fora do Parlamento", CNN Portugal, 31 January 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  9. "Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos demite-se de presidente do CDS-PP", Diário de Notícias, 31 January 2022. Retrieved February 2022.
  10. "Conselho Nacional do CDS-PP aprova antecipação do congresso para 2 e 3 de abril", CNN Portugal, 11 February 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  11. "“O CDS faz falta a Portugal”, Nuno Melo oficializa candidatura à presidência do partidol", CNN Portugal, 19 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
  12. "Nuno Correia da Silva é candidato à liderança do CDS-PP". www.jn.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-03-26.
  13. "CDS-PP. Miguel Mattos Chaves anuncia candidatura à liderança", CNN Portugal, 19 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
  14. "Candidato ao CDS Bruno Filipe Costa inspira-se nos conservadores britânicos ", Público, 1 April 2022. Retrieved 2 April 2022.
  15. "Congresso CDS-PP. Miguel Mattos Chaves é o único adversário de Nuno Melo ", RTP, 3 April 2022. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
  16. "Rui Rio confirma que não se vai recandidatar à liderança do PSD", Diário de Notícias, 3 February 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  17. "Sucessor de Rio escolhido a 28 de maio. Ribau Esteves e Pedro Rodrigues marcam posição". Expresso (in European Portuguese). 2022-03-15. Retrieved 2022-03-14.
  18. "PSD: Montenegro e Moreira da Silva confirmados como dois candidatos à liderança". Visão. 16 May 2022. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
  19. "Menos militantes pagam quotas para escolha entre Montenegro ou Moreira da Silva". Diário de Notícias. 16 May 2022. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
  20. Antunes, Miguel Santos Carrapatoso, Rui Pedro. "Em direto/ Luís Montenegro sucede a Rui Rio na liderança do PSD". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-05-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  21. "Jerónimo de Sousa sai da liderança do PCP, 18 anos depois. Paulo Raimundo é o sucessor". Expresso (in European Portuguese). 2022-11-05. Retrieved 2022-11-05.
  22. "Paulo Raimundo será o novo secretário-geral do PCP". Jornal de Notícias (in European Portuguese). 2022-11-05. Retrieved 2022-11-05.
  23. "PCP. Paulo Raimundo eleito novo secretário-geral por unanimidade". i (in European Portuguese). 2022-11-12. Retrieved 2022-11-12.
  24. "João Cotrim Figueiredo não vai voltar a candidatar-se à liderança da IL". RTP (in European Portuguese). 2022-10-23. Retrieved 2022-10-23.
  25. "Deputado Rui Rocha é candidato à liderança da Iniciativa Liberal nas eleições antecipadas". Expresso (in European Portuguese). 2022-10-23. Retrieved 2022-10-23.
  26. Figueiredo, Inês André. "Carla Castro, deputada da Iniciativa Liberal, é candidata à presidência". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-10-25.
  27. Rodrigues, Sofia (2022-11-06). "Iniciativa Liberal escolhe novo líder a 21 e 22 de Janeiro". Público (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-11-06.
  28. Sá, Paula (2023-01-02). "Há mais um candidato à presidência da Iniciativa Liberal". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-01-02.
  29. "IL vai escolher o seu 4.º líder e pela primeira vez há disputa interna". RTP Madeira (in European Portuguese). 2023-01-19. Retrieved 2023-01-19.
  30. ECO (2023-01-22). "Rui Rocha é o novo presidente da Iniciativa liberal". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-01-22.
  31. Diário de Notícias (2023-01-23). "Iniciativa Liberal. Margem curta na vitória da continuidade". www.dn.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-01-23.
  32. "Já há data para o IX Congresso do PAN". www.cnnportugal.iol.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-04-07.
  33. "Candidato a porta-voz, Nelson Silva quer "reconstruir" o PAN". www.expresso.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-04-04.
  34. ""Estamos numa escola básica": tensão, atrasos e críticas marcam arranque do Congresso do PAN. Sousa Real e Nelson Silva trocam argumentos". www.expresso.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-20.
  35. "Inês de Sousa Real reeleita porta-voz do PAN". www.jornaldenegocios.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-20.
  36. Expresso (2023-05-20). "Inês de Sousa Real reeleita líder do PAN com 73% dos votos". www.expresso.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-20.
  37. "Catarina Martins vai deixar liderança do Bloco de Esquerda". CNN Portugal (in European Portuguese). 2023-02-14. Retrieved 2023-02-14.
  38. Santa-Bárbara, Bárbara (2023-02-04). "Bloco de Esquerda agenda convenção para maio". TSF (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-02-14.
  39. "BE: Mariana Mortágua vai avançar para a liderança". www.dn.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-02-14.
  40. "Entre críticas ao PS e elogios a Catarina, Mariana Mortágua confirma: "Sou candidata"". www.expresso.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-02-27.
  41. "Moção de críticos da direção quer parar caminho de perda de influência do BE". www.jn.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-02-28.
  42. "Mariana Mortágua é a nova líder do Bloco de Esquerda". www.sabado.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-28.
  43. "É oficial: Mariana Mortágua é a nova coordenadora do Bloco de Esquerda". www.cnnportugal.pt (in European Portuguese). 2023-05-28.
  44. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 29 October 2019.
  45. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2008-05-14. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  46. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  47. "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-C/2021" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República n.º 235/2021, 1.º Suplemento, Série I de 6 de Dezembro de 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-02-13. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
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