Next Spanish general election

The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the 16th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 265 seats in the Senate.

Next Spanish general election

No later than 22 August 2027

All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of 266) seats in the Senate
176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion polls
 
Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pedro Sánchez Santiago Abascal
Party PP PSOE Vox
Leader since 2 April 2022 18 June 2017 20 September 2014
Leader's seat Madrid Madrid Madrid
Last election 137 seats, 33.1% 121 seats, 31.7% 33 seats, 12.4%
Current seats 137 121 33
Seats needed 39 55 143

 
Leader Yolanda Díaz Gabriel Rufián Míriam Nogueras
Party Sumar ERC Junts
Leader since 2 April 2023 14 October 2019 12 March 2021
Leader's seat Madrid Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 31 seats, 12.3% 7 seats, 1.9% 7 seats, 1.6%
Current seats 31 7 7
Seats needed 145 N/A[lower-alpha 1] N/A[lower-alpha 2]

Constituencies for the Congress of Deputies

Incumbent Prime Minister

Pedro Sánchez (acting)
PSOE



The inconclusive result of the 2023 election, with no bloc being able to muster a parliamentary majority without the support of the Together for Catalonia (Junts) party of former Catalan president and fugitive Carles Puigdemont, raises the possibility of a repeat election being held by late 2023 or early 2024.[1][2]

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish Cortes Generales are envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a prime minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.[3][4] Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain, with each being allocated an initial minimum of two seats and the remaining 248 being distributed in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting.[3][5] The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[6]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency would be entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
37 Madrid
32 Barcelona
16 Valencia
12 Alicante, Seville
11 Málaga
10 Murcia
9 Cádiz
8 A Coruña, Balearic Islands, Biscay, Las Palmas
7 Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Zaragoza, Santa Cruz de Tenerife
6 Almería, Córdoba, Gipuzkoa, Girona, Tarragona, Toledo
5 Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarre, Valladolid
4 Álava, Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, Salamanca
3 Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora
2 Soria

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting system, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, IbizaFormentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.[3][5]

Election date

The term of each chamber of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of the Cortes in the event that the prime minister does not make use of his prerogative of early dissolution. The decree shall be published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 23 July 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 23 July 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOE no later than 29 June 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 22 August 2027.[5]

The prime minister has the prerogative to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot.[3] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of 2023 there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers.[7][8]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either chamber of the Cortes at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies.[5] The electoral law provides for a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances
Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Con. Sen.
PP Alberto Núñez Feijóo Conservatism
Christian democracy
33.06% 137 120 ☒N
PSOE Pedro Sánchez Social democracy 31.68% 121 72 checkY
Vox
List
Santiago Abascal Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
12.38% 33 0 ☒N
Sumar
List
Yolanda Díaz Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics
12.33% 31 0 checkY
ERC Gabriel Rufián Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy
1.89% 7 [lower-alpha 3] ☒N
Junts Míriam Nogueras Catalan independence
Populism
1.60% 7 1 ☒N
EH Bildu
List
Mertxe Aizpurua Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism
1.36% 6 [lower-alpha 3] ☒N
EAJ/PNV
List
Aitor Esteban Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy
1.12% 5 4 ☒N
BNG Néstor Rego Galician nationalism
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism
0.62% 1 0 ☒N
CCa
List
Cristina Valido Regionalism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism
0.47% 1 0 ☒N
UPN Alberto Catalán Regionalism
Conservatism
Christian democracy
0.21% 1 1 ☒N
ERC–
EH Bildu
Mirella Cortès Gès Left-wing nationalism Senate 7[lower-alpha 3] ☒N
ASG Fabián Chinea Insularism
Social democracy
Senate 1 ☒N
EFS Juanjo Ferrer Progressivism Senate 1 ☒N
AHI Javier Armas Insularism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism
Senate 1 ☒N

Opinion polls

Local regression trend line of poll results from 23 July 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Notes

  1. ERC does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
  2. Junts does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
  3. ERC (3 senators) and EH Bildu (4 senators) joined the IPLI alliance ahead of the 2023 Senate election.

References

  1. "Spanish elections: Uncertainty hangs over future government". Euronews. 24 July 2023. Retrieved 24 July 2023.
  2. Pérez, Miriam (23 July 2023). "El escenario que no se puede descartar: un bloqueo tras el 23J y una repetición electoral para enero de 2024" (in Spanish). Business Insider. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
  3. "Constitución Española". Constitution of 29 December 1978 (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 December 2016.
  4. "Constitución española, Sinopsis artículo 66". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 July 2023.
  6. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  7. "Grupos Parlamentarios en el Congreso de los Diputados y el Senado". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
  8. "Composición del Senado 1977-2023". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
  9. "Grupos parlamentarios". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 August 2023.
  10. "Grupos Parlamentarios desde 1977". Senate of Spain (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 July 2020.
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