2011 Navarrese regional election

The 2011 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Navarrese regional election
22 May 2011
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered485,386 2.9%
Turnout327,281 (67.4%)
6.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Yolanda Barcina Roberto Jiménez Patxi Zabaleta
Party UPN PSN–PSOE NaBai 2011
Leader since 19 April 2009 28 June 2008 16 September 2006
Last election 22 seats, 42.2% 12 seats, 22.5% 12 seats, 23.6%
Seats won 19 9 8
Seat change 3 3 4
Popular vote 111,474 51,238 49,827
Percentage 34.5% 15.9% 15.4%
Swing 7.7 pp 6.6 pp 8.2 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Maiorga Ramírez Santiago Cervera José Miguel Nuin
Party Bildu PP I–E (n)
Leader since 2011 10 December 2009 29 January 2011
Last election Did not contest Did not contest 2 seats, 4.3%[lower-alpha 1]
Seats won 7 4 3
Seat change 7 4 1
Popular vote 42,916 23,551 18,457
Percentage 13.3% 7.3% 5.7%
Swing New party New party 1.4 pp
President before election

Miguel Sanz
UPN

 Elected President

Yolanda Barcina
UPN

The election was the first since 1987 not to see the People's Party (PP) fielding a separate list to that of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), with the latter having functioned as the PP's sister party in Navarre since their 1991 agreement. The breakup of this alliance followed a dispute in October 2008 over a parliamentary vote in the Congress of Deputies, in which UPN chose not to support the PP's amendment to the 2009 budget of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's government. Concurrently, incumbent president Miguel Sanz had announced his intention not to run for a fifth term in office, being replaced as UPN leader and candidate by mayor of Pamplona Yolanda Barcina.

The election saw UPN remaining the first political party of Navarre, albeit with a diminished result due to the PP split, scoring 34.5% and 19 seats. The Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) obtained the worst result of its history up until that point, but recovered the second place it had lost in 2007 to Nafarroa Bai (NaBai), which suffered from the abertzale left's legalization by the Constitutional Court of Spain under the Bildu umbrella and an internal split which saw Basque Solidarity (EA) and Assembly (Batzarre) leaving the alliance. Both UPN and the PSN formed a coalition government, electing Barcina as president.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Navarrese people abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[3]

Election date

After legal amendments in 2010, fixed-term mandates were abolished, instead allowing the term of the Parliament of Navarre to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 26 June 2011.[1][3][4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][5]

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Navarre was officially dissolved on 29 March 2011, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Navarre.[6] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.

Parliamentary composition in March 2011[7]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group UPN 22 22
Navarre Yes Parliamentary Group Aralar 5 12
EA 4
EAJ/PNV 1
Batzarre 1
INDEP 1
Socialists of the Parliament of Navarre
Parliamentary Group		 PSN–PSOE 12 12
Mixed Group CDN 2 4
IU 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
UPN
List
 Yolanda Barcina Conservatism
Christian democracy
Regionalism		 42.19% 22 checkY [8]
[9]
NaBai 2011
List
 Patxi Zabaleta Basque nationalism
Progressivism		 23.62% 12 ☒N [10]
[11]
PSN–PSOE
List
 Roberto Jiménez Social democracy 22.49% 12 ☒N
CDN
List
 José Andrés Burguete Christian democracy
Regionalism		 4.37% 2 ☒N
I–E (n)
List
 José Miguel Nuin Socialism
Communism		 4.35% 2 ☒N
PP
List
 Santiago Cervera Conservatism
Christian democracy		 New party ☒N [12]
[13]
[14]
Bildu–EA/
AE–EA–A
List
 Maiorga Ramírez Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism		 New party ☒N [15]
[16]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.

Results
← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Parliament of Navarre election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
Navarrese People's Union (UPN) 111,47434.48–7.70 19–3
Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) 51,23815.85–6.64 9–3
Navarre Yes 2011 (NaBai 2011) 49,82715.41–8.21 8–4
Gather–Basque Solidarity–Alternative (Bildu–EA/AE–EA–Alternatiba) 42,91613.28New 7+7
People's Party (PP) 23,5517.29New 4+4
Left (I–E (n))1 18,4575.71+1.36 3+1
Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN) 4,6541.44–2.93 0–2
Greens of Navarre (VN–NB) 4,2351.31New 0±0
Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) 3,1660.98–0.45 0±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 2,2120.68New 0±0
Initiative for Navarre (IxN) 1,3320.41New 0±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 1,0540.33New 0±0
Navarrese and Spanish Right (DNE) 9770.30New 0±0
Blank ballots 8,1612.52+1.14
Total 323,254 50±0
Valid votes 323,25498.77+4.03
Invalid votes 4,0271.23–4.03
Votes cast / turnout 327,28167.43–6.36
Abstentions 158,10532.57+6.36
Registered voters 485,386
Sources[17][18][19]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
UPN
 
 34.48%
PSN–PSOE
 
 15.85%
NaBai 2011
 
 15.41%
Bildu
 
 13.28%
PP
 
 7.29%
I–E (n)
 
 5.71%
CDN
 
 1.44%
VN–NB
 
 1.31%
Others
 
 2.70%
Blank ballots
 
 2.52%
Seats
UPN
 
 38.00%
PSN–PSOE
 
 18.00%
NaBai 2011
 
 16.00%
Bildu
 
 14.00%
PP
 
 8.00%
I–E (n)
 
 6.00%

Aftermath

Government formation
Further information: Government of Yolanda Barcina

After legal amendments in 2010, investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[1]

Investiture
Yolanda Barcina (UPN)
Ballot → 23 June 2011
Required majority → 26 out of 50 checkY
Yes
28 / 50
No
22 / 50
Abstentions
0 / 50
Absentees
0 / 50
Sources[19]

2013 motion of no confidence
Motion of no confidence
Juan Carlos Longás (NaBai)
Ballot → 18 April 2013
Required majority → 26 out of 50 ☒N
Yes
18 / 50
No
  • • UPN (19)
  • • PP (4)
23 / 50
Abstentions
9 / 50
Absentees
0 / 50
Sources[19]

Notes
  1. Results for IUN/NEB in the 2007 election.
  2. Within UPN.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "NaBai está a un paso de ser la segunda fuerza más votada en Nafarroa tras UPN". Deia (in Spanish). 14 May 2011. Archived from the original on 25 December 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  2. "Bildu logra tres escaños". El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 May 2011.
  3. "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  4. "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  5. "UPN lograría 19-20 escaños por 10-11 del PSN y entran PP y Bildu con 4-5 escaños cada uno". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 14 May 2011. Archived from the original on 17 May 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  6. "UPN debería pactar con el PP para poder gobernar en Navarra". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
  7. "Los cuatro inexpugnables". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 26 April 2011.
  8. "El PSOE se rinde al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 25 June 2011. Retrieved 2 March 2021.
  9. "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
  10. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 2881. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
  11. "Rajoy se vuelca a por su billete a la Moncloa". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
  12. "UPN, obligada a entenderse con el PP o el PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 26 April 2011.
  13. "El Mundo 25-27 de Abril 2011". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
  14. "Los socialistas tienen la llave para unirse a UPN o pactar con los nacionalistas". ABC (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
  15. "Solo un pacto entre UPN y PSN garantizaría la mayoría absoluta en Navarra". El Correo (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
  16. "UPN es primera fuerza en Nafarroa, pero solo conseguiría la mayoría si cuenta con el apoyo del PSN". Deia (in Spanish). 18 April 2011. Archived from the original on 21 April 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  17. "El Parlamento de Navarra se fragmenta (Diario de Noticias)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 17 April 2011. Archived from the original on 4 September 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  18. "Navarra y su Parlamento. Estudio político en Navarra (Abril 2011, Grupo Noticias)" (PDF). Gizaker (in Spanish). 18 April 2011.
  19. "La irrupción del PP otorga la mayoría al centroderecha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 7 January 2011.
  20. "Un pacto de UPN con el PP podría darles mayoría absoluta en Navarra (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 January 2011. Archived from the original on 27 July 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  21. "Estudio sobre la actualidad de Navarra (año 2010)" (PDF). Ikerfel (in Spanish). 12 November 2010.
  22. "CDN quedaría fuera del Parlamento de Navarra (Navarrometro)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 12 November 2010. Archived from the original on 24 August 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  23. "Una encuesta de CIES le da 14 escaños a Nabai". Ezkerreko Nabaizaleok (in Spanish). 19 October 2010.
  24. "Encuesta Cies para el parlamento de Navarra". Foro Diario de Noticias Navarra (in Spanish). 19 October 2010.
  25. "UPN se desploma y el PP regresa con fuerza, pero la alianza preferida es UPN-PSN". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2 June 2010.
  26. "Cuarta entrega de sondeos de El Mundo: Navarra, Aragón y Canarias". Electómetro (in Spanish). 2 June 2010. Archived from the original on 24 March 2015.
  27. "Estudio sobre la actualidad de Navarra 2009" (PDF). CIES (in Spanish). 7 November 2009.
  28. ""UPN buscaba una excusa para echarnos o para forzar a CDN a integrarse en sus filas"". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 30 September 2009.
  29. "El dilema de UPN ante las cuentas del Estado". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 11 October 2009. Archived from the original on 12 December 2009.
  30. "CDN, posibles consecuencias de su hipotética desaparición". Navarra Confidencial (in Spanish). 11 February 2009.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra". Organic Law No. 13 of 10 August 1982 (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Law No. 16 of 17 December 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  5. Arnedo, Beatriz (21 May 2011). "El presidente deberá ser elegido antes del 22 de agosto o se repetirán las elecciones". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  6. "Decreto Foral 1/2011, de 28 de marzo, del Presidente del Gobierno de Navarra, por el que se convocan elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (75): 32735. 29 March 2011. ISSN 0212-033X.
  7. "Memoir 2010–2011" (PDF). www.parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  8. Reviriego, José Mari (30 October 2008). "Sanz descarta presentarse a la reelección como presidente de UPN". El Correo (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  9. "Yolanda Barcina, elegida presidenta de UPN con el 89% de los votos". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Agencias. 19 April 2009. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  10. Álvarez, Amaia (27 August 2010). "Aralar propone a Patxi Zabaleta como cabeza de lista de NaBai al Parlamento". Noticias de Gipuzkoa (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  11. Menéndez, María (6 May 2011). "Las escisiones de partidos marcan las elecciones en Navarra con UPN como favorita" (in Spanish). RTVE. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  12. "Miguel Sanz dice que no le 'preocupa en exceso' que el PP se presente en Navarra". El Mundo (in Spanish). Pamplona. Europa Press. 14 October 2008. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  13. "El PP rompe su pacto con UPN por no apoyar su enmienda a los Presupuestos del Gobierno" (in Spanish). RTVE. 22 October 2008. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  14. "Santiago Cervera, elegido presidente del Partido Popular de Navarra". El Imparcial (in Spanish). 12 December 2009. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  15. "Sortu intenta burlar la ilegalización con una coalición llamada Bildu". El País (in Spanish). 26 March 2011. Retrieved 12 February 2020.
  16. "El Constitucional da vía libre a Bildu para acudir a las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 5 May 2011. Retrieved 12 February 2020.
  17. "VIII Legislature (2011–2015)". parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  18. "Parliament of Navarre election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Navarre. 26 July 2011. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  19. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.
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