2019 Murcian regional election

The 2019 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

2019 Murcian regional election
26 May 2019
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,057,978 3.0%
Turnout659,437 (62.3%)
1.3 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Diego Conesa Fernando López Miras Isabel Franco
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 30 September 2017 3 May 2017 9 March 2019
Last election 13 seats, 23.9% 22 seats, 37.4% 4 seats, 12.6%
Seats won 17 16 6
Seat change 4 6 2
Popular vote 212,600 211,849 78,483
Percentage 32.5% 32.4% 12.0%
Swing 8.6 pp 5.0 pp 0.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Pascual Salvador Óscar Urralburu
Party Vox Podemos–Equo
Leader since 21 April 2019 14 February 2015
Last election 0 seats, 0.8% 6 seats, 13.2%
Seats won 4 2
Seat change 4 4
Popular vote 61,998 36,486
Percentage 9.5% 5.6%
Swing 8.7 pp 7.6 pp
President before election

Fernando López Miras
PP

 Elected President

Fernando López Miras
PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[lower-alpha 1][3]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[1][3][4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 11 June.[5]

Background

In the aftermath of the 2015 election, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) signed a confidence and supply agreement which allowed Pedro Antonio Sánchez to be elected as new Murcian president.[6][7] As part of the PP–Cs agreement, one of the newly elected Assembly's first initiatives was to increase the proportionality of the regional electoral system by scrapping the sub-provincial constituencies and lowering the required threshold from 5% to 3%.[8]

A political crisis unveiled in the community after Pedro Antonio Sánchez was accused of several corruption offences on 20 February 2017. The scandal involved an ongoing judicial investigation on alleged irregularities in the process of awarding, construction and reception of an auditorium in Puerto Lumbreras, town from which Sánchez had been mayor between 2003 and 2013.[9] While Sánchez had repeatedly assured he would resign right away if he was ever judicially charged for any crimes,[10][11] he refused to do so after learning of his indictment despite Cs calls.[12][13] Subsequently, Cs withdrew its parliamentary support, leaving the PP in minority, while threatening to support a censure motion on Sánchez promoted by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Podemos.[14][15] The PP accused Cs of breaking their agreement and of "playing with fire",[16] with parties hinting at the possibility that a snap election could be eventually called by Sánchez in order to prevent his removal.[17][18]

On 8 March, Cs gave Pedro Antonio Sánchez an ultimatum, demanding him to either tender his resignation or call a snap election before 27 March. Otherwise, Cs would support the PSOE censure motion to bring him down.[19] On 3 April, the President of Murcia was accused by judge Eloy Velasco—from the National Audience—of participating in the case known as Trama Púnica (in Spanish), which led to his resignation as regional president on the following day and the withdrawal of the scheduled censure motion presented by the PSOE.[20][21] During his farewell speech, Pedro Antonio Sánchez proposed Fernando López Miras as his successor.[22]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.[23]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 22 22
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 13 13
We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 6 6
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 4 4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Fernando López Miras Conservatism
Christian democracy		 37.35% 22 checkY [24]
[25]
PSOE
List
 Diego Conesa Social democracy 23.95% 13 ☒N [26]
Podemos–
Equo
List
 Óscar Urralburu Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 13.22% 6 ☒N [27]
Cs
List
 Isabel Franco Liberalism 12.57% 4 ☒N [28]
Vox
List
 Pascual Salvador Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 0.85% 0 ☒N [29]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Results
← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 212,60032.47+8.52 17+4
People's Party (PP) 211,84932.35–5.00 16–6
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 78,48311.99–0.58 6+2
Vox (Vox) 61,9989.47+8.62 4+4
We Can–Equo (Podemos–Equo) 36,4865.57–7.65 2–4
Municipalist Coalition MC–CCD–CIFA–PITP–UxA (MC–CCD)1 14,6052.23–0.20 0±0
We Are Region (Somos Región) 13,3732.04New 0±0
Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalists) (CR)2 13,2522.02–2.79 0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 5,5610.85+0.12 0±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 7980.12±0.00 0±0
With You, We Are Democracy (Contigo) 6410.10New 0±0
Seniors in Action (3e en acción) 5540.08New 0±0
Cantonal Party (PCAN) 5120.08New 0±0
Plural Democracy (DPL) 3770.06New 0±0
Spanish Digital Democratic Union (UDDE) 2280.03New 0±0
Blank ballots 3,4790.53–1.04
Total 654,796 45±0
Valid votes 654,79699.30+1.30
Invalid votes 4,6410.70–1.30
Votes cast / turnout 659,43762.33–1.24
Abstentions 398,54137.67+1.24
Registered voters 1,057,978
Sources[23][30]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 32.47%
PP
 
 32.35%
Cs
 
 11.99%
Vox
 
 9.47%
Podemos–Equo
 
 5.57%
MC–CCD
 
 2.23%
Somos Región
 
 2.04%
CR
 
 2.02%
Others
 
 1.32%
Blank ballots
 
 0.53%
Seats
PSOE
 
 37.78%
PP
 
 35.56%
Cs
 
 13.33%
Vox
 
 8.89%
Podemos–Equo
 
 4.44%

Aftermath

Government formation
Further information: Second government of Fernando López Miras
Investiture
Fernando López Miras (PP)
Ballot → 2 July 2019 4 July 2019
Required majority → 23 out of 45 ☒N Simple ☒N
Yes
  • • PP (16) (15 on 2 Jul)
  • • Cs (6)
21 / 45
22 / 45
No
23 / 45
23 / 45
Abstentions
0 / 45
0 / 45
Absentees
  • • PP (1) (on 2 Jul)
1 / 45
0 / 45
Sources[23][31][32]
Investiture
Fernando López Miras (PP)
Ballot → 26 July 2019
Required majority → 23 out of 45 checkY
Yes
  • • PP (16)
  • • Cs (6)
  • • Vox (4)
26 / 45
No
18 / 45
Abstentions
0 / 45
Absentees
1 / 45
Sources[23][33]

2021 motion of no-confidence
Motion of no-confidence
Ana Martínez Vidal (Cs)
Ballot → 18 March 2021
Required majority → 23 out of 45 ☒N
Yes
21 / 45
No
23 / 45
Abstentions
  • • Cs (1)
1 / 45
Absentees
0 / 45
Sources[23][34]

Notes
  1. A 2015 legal amendment had seen the five constituencies abolished and replaced by a single multi-member district comprising all the municipalities in the autonomous community. The electoral threshold was also lowered from five to three percent.
  2. Within Unidas Podemos.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "#emojiPanel Región de Murcia (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
  2. "#emojiPanel Región de Murcia (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
  3. "#emojiPanel Región de Murcia (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
  4. "#emojiPanel Región de Murcia (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
  5. "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  6. "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  7. "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  8. "#emojiPanel Región de Murcia (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  9. "PP y PSOE obtendrían 14 escaños cada uno en la Asamblea según el sondeo de la UCAM". COPE (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  10. "#electoPanel Región de Murcia (19M): subidón del PSOE que se pone en cabeza en empate técnico con el PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 19 May 2019.
  11. "#electoPanel Región de Murcia (16M): Ciudadanos se descuelga de la lucha por la victoria". Electomanía (in Spanish). 16 May 2019.
  12. "#electoPanel Región de Murcia (13M): el PP sube y 'soterra' las opciones de Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2019.
  13. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Preelectoral Elecciones Autonómicas 2019 Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 17 May 2019.
  14. "#electoPanel Región de Murcia (10M): PSOE, PP y Cs se disputan el paparajote electoral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 May 2019.
  15. "#electoPanel Región de Murcia (7M): triple empate perfecto PP-PSOE-Cs". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 May 2019.
  16. "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  17. "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  18. "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  19. "El PP ganaría las elecciones autonómicas pero necesitaría a Cs y Vox para gobernar". La Verdad (in Spanish). 11 April 2019.
  20. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Primavera 2019" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 11 April 2019.
  21. "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  22. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  23. "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  24. "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  25. "ElectoPanel Murcia: el PP baja, pero casi cualquier pacto pasa por él". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 February 2019.
  26. "El Partido Popular se desplomaría pero podría gobernar con Ciudadanos". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 25 November 2018.
  27. "El Partido Popular ganaría las elecciones en la Región y VOX entraría en la Asamblea". La Verdad (in Spanish). 27 November 2018.
  28. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Otoño 2018" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 27 November 2018.
  29. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta CEMOP". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 November 2018.
  30. "Ciudadanos ganaría las elecciones en la Región con el 31,3% de los votos". La Verdad (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  31. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta CEMOP para Asamblea de Murcia. Mayo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  32. "Estimación Marzo 2018. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 March 2018.
  33. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2018.
  34. "Un sondeo del PP alerta sobre la pérdida del gobierno de Murcia si hay nuevas elecciones". El Independiente (in Spanish). 24 March 2017.
  35. "Tovar se apoya en una encuesta del PSOE para mantener el órdago al presidente". La Verdad (in Spanish). 2 April 2017.
  36. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Marzo 2017. Sondeo Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 April 2017.
  37. "El PP de Murcia ganaría pero necesitaría a Cs". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 March 2017.
  38. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Marzo 2017. Sondeo NC Report". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 March 2017.
  39. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Primavera 2018" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982 (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987 (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. "Decreto del Presidente de la Comunidad Autónoma n.º 9/2019, de 1 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Murcia". Boletín Oficial de la Región de Murcia (in Spanish) (76): 9830–9831. 2 April 2019. ISSN 1989-1474.
  6. Agencia EFE (18 June 2015). "Ciudadanos da también la presidencia de Murcia al Partido Popular". Público (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  7. Agencia EFE (30 June 2015). "El 'popular' Pedro Antonio Sánchez, presidente de Murcia con el apoyo de Ciudadanos mientras no esté imputado". El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  8. Serrano Solana, Pedro (23 July 2015). "La Asamblea Regional de Murcia aprueba por unanimidad la reforma de la Ley Electoral". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Cartagena. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  9. Vadillo, Virginia (20 February 2017). "El presidente de Murcia declarará como imputado el próximo 6 de marzo". El País (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  10. Serrano, Pedro (24 June 2015). "Pedro Antonio Sánchez: "Si me imputan por delitos de corrupción política, me iré"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  11. Europa Press (16 February 2017). "El presidente de Murcia asegura que dimitirá si es imputado". El Economista (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  12. Piña, Raúl (20 February 2017). "Ciudadanos exige la dimisión inmediata del presidente de Murcia tras ser imputado". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  13. antena3.com (3 March 2017). "Pedro Antonio Sánchez se niega a dimitir: "La oposición se está cogiendo a mi cuello como su última tabla de salvación"" (in Spanish). Madrid: Antena 3 Noticias. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  14. Vadillo, Virginia; Mateo, Juan José; Casqueiro, Javier (2 March 2017). "Ciudadanos retira su apoyo al PP de Murcia tras la imputación del presidente autonómico". El País (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  15. Piña, Raúl (3 March 2017). "La crisis de Murcia amenaza el pacto entre Albert Rivera y Mariano Rajoy". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  16. Europa Press (2 March 2017). "El presidente de Murcia advierte a Cs que está "jugando con fuego" si se deja "arrastrar" por Podemos y PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  17. Agencia EFE (1 March 2017). "Ciudadanos baraja alternativas en Murcia sin descartar ya las elecciones anticipadas". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  18. Esteban, Paloma (3 March 2017). "C's cerca al presidente de Murcia y se debate entre la moción de censura y las elecciones". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  19. Pardo, Belén; Martín, Patricia (8 March 2017). "C's da 19 días al presidente de Murcia para que dimita o convoque elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 9 March 2017.
  20. "Dimite el presidente de Murcia Pedro Antonio Sánchez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  21. "El PSOE retira la moción de censura en Murcia tras la dimisión de Sánchez". Público. 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  22. "Sánchez dimite y propone a López Miras como su sucesor". La Verdad. 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  23. "Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Murcia (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  24. "López Miras, elegido presidente de Murcia gracias a la abstención de Ciudadanos". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 29 April 2017. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  25. "Casado arropa en Murcia a López Miras y Ballesta como candidatos del PP a la CARM y al Ayuntamiento de Murcia" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 8 December 2018. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  26. "Diego Conesa será el candidato del PSOE". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 5 June 2018. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  27. "Podemos y Equo acuerdan una candidatura conjunta para elecciones generales, autonómicas y en algunos ayuntamientos". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  28. "Isabel Franco será la candidata a la Presidencia de la Región de Ciudadanos". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 9 March 2019. Archived from the original on 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  29. "Santiago Abascal confirma a Pascual Salvador como candidato por Vox a la presidencia de la Región". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 21 April 2019. Retrieved 4 May 2019.
  30. "Regional Assembly of Murcia election, 26 May 2019". elecciones2019.carm.es (in Spanish). Government of the Region of Murcia. Archived from the original on 27 May 2019. Retrieved 26 May 2019.
  31. "Vox tumba la investidura de Miras como presidente regional en el primer intento". La Verdad (in Spanish). 2 July 2019. Retrieved 2 July 2019.
  32. "Vox frustra la investidura de López Miras y culpa a la dirección de Cs". La Verdad (in Spanish). 4 July 2019. Retrieved 4 July 2019.
  33. "López Miras, investido presidente de la Región de Murcia con el apoyo de Ciudadanos y Vox". La Verdad (in Spanish). 26 July 2019. Retrieved 26 July 2019.
  34. "Fracasa la moción de censura de PSOE y Ciudadanos en Murcia". El País (in Spanish). Cartagena. 18 March 2021. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
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